NFL picks – Week 13

Total (weeks 1-12) – SU: 121-54-1 (69.03%) ATS: 88-86-2 (50.57%, -6.6 Units)  O/U: 92-82-2 (52.84%, +1.8 Units)

Week 1 – SU: 9-7-0 ATS: 8-8-0 O/U: 13-3-0

Week 2 – SU: 10-6-0 ATS: 10-6-0 O/U: 10-6-0

Week 3 – SU: 12-4-0 ATS: 9-6-1  O/U: 8-8-0

Week 4 – SU: 7-6-0 ATS: 5-7-1  O/U: 5-8-0

Week 5 – SU: 14-2-0 ATS: 6-9-0  O/U: 9-6-0

Week 6 – SU: 11-3-1 ATS: 8-7-0  O/U: 6-9-1

Week 7 – SU: 11-4-0 ATS: 7-8-0  O/U: 8-7-0

Week 8 – SU: 11-3-0 ATS: 8-7-0 O/U: 8-7-0

Week 9 – SU: 9-4-0 ATS: 8-5-0 O/U: 4-8-1

Week 10 – SU: 9-4-0 ATS: 4-9-0 O/U: 6-7-0

Week 11 – SU: 9-5-0 ATS: 8-6-0 O/U: 7-7-0

Week 12 – SU: 10-5-0 ATS: 7-8-0 O/U: 8-7-0

Arizona at Atlanta

Prediction: Falcons 24-21 (58.3%)

Pick: Falcons +3

Total: Over 44.5 

San Diego at Baltimore

Prediction: Ravens 23-20 (58.9%)

Pick: Chargers +6

Total: Under 46

Cleveland at Buffalo

Prediction:  Bills 23-20 (58.9%)

Pick: Bills -2.5 

Total: Over 41

Philadelphia at Dallas

Prediction: Cowboys 26-24 (53.9%)

Pick: Eagles +3.5

Total: Under 56

Chicago at Detroit

Prediction: Lions 24-21 (58.3%)

Pick: Bears +7

Total: Under 47.5

New England at Green Bay

Prediction: Packers 28-26 (54.0%)

Pick: Patriots +3

Total:Under 59 

Tennessee at Houston

Prediction: Texans 24-18 (66.8%)

Pick: Titans +6.5 

Total: Under 43.5 

Washington at Indianapolis

Prediction: Colts 26-22 (61.1%)

Pick: Washington Football Team +10

Total: Under 51.5

NY Giants at Jacksonville

Prediction: Giants 23-19 (59.1%)

Pick: Giants -3

Total: Under 44.5

Denver at Kansas City

Prediction: Broncos 25-22 (58.9%)

Pick: Broncos -2.5

Total: Under 50.5 

Carolina at Minnesota

Prediction: Vikings 21-20 (51.0%)

Pick: Panthers +2.5

Total: Under 43

Miami at NY Jets

Prediction: Jets 20-19 (50.6%)

Pick: Jets +6.5 

Total: Under 42

New Orleans at Pittsburgh

Prediction: Saints 26-25 (51.6%)

Pick: Saints +4.5 

Total: Under 54

Seattle at San Francisco

Prediction: 49ers 20-19 (52.9%) 

Pick: 49ers -1

Total: Under 40

Oakland at St. Louis

Prediction: Rams 23-18 (63.3%)

Pick: Raiders +7

Total: Under 42

Cincinnati at Tampa Bay

Prediction: Bengals 21-20 (54.2%)

Pick: Buccaneers +4

Total: Under 44

NCAA Top 25 – November 23, 2014

Some questions:

Let’s say Alabama goes to the SEC championship game and loses.  Does that knock out Alabama and keep Miss State in (assuming they beat Ole Miss in the Egg Bowl)?

If Missouri somehow wins the SEC, they have to get in to the playoff right?  Who would get knocked out then?

I feel confident that Florida State will lose one of their next two games.  Does a 1 loss Florida State get into the playoff over a TCU or a Baylor?

Is Ohio State losing to Virginia Tech the weirdest loss of this season?

What is the playoff committee going to do with a team like Arkansas? Are they top 25?

Seriously, why is Condoleezza Rice involved in this?

Do you think when Ole Miss was 7-0 that fans really thought they had a chance to win the national championship?

Is there anyone in the world happier than me that Notre Dame has lost 4 out of their last 5?

Cheers.

 
 Rank Team Record
1 ALABAMA 10-1
2 OREGON 10-1
3 MISS STATE 10-1
4 UCLA 9-2
5 GEORGIA 9-2
6 TCU 9-1
7 AUBURN 8-3
8 ARIZONA 9-2
9 BAYLOR 9-1
10 FLORIDA STATE 11-0
11 OLE MISS 8-3
12 ARKANSAS 6-5
13 WISCONSIN 9-2
14 MISSOURI 9-2
15 KANSAS STATE 8-2
16 ARIZONA STATE 9-2
17 OKLAHOMA 8-3
18 GEORGIA TECH 9-2
19 OHIO STATE 10-1
20 MICHIGAN STATE 9-2
21 TEXAS A&M 7-4
22 LOUISVILLE 8-3
23 LSU 7-4
24 USC 7-4
25 FLORIDA 6-4

NHL game outcomes using R and Hockey Reference

Originally posted on StatsbyLopez:

I’m always impressed with the contest and accessibility of the Baseball with R website (here), which features a great cast of statisticians writing about everything from Hall of Fame entry to umpire bias.

In a similar vein, I highly recommend Sam and AC’s nhlscrapr package in R. I’ve used it extensively to analyze play-by-play data from past seasons (for example, this post on momentum in hockey).

However, I have a soft spot for overtime outcomes in the NHL, and while the nhlscrapr package has game-by-game results, there isn’t a straight-forward mechanism for identifying whether or not a given game went to overtime. Further, data in the nhlscrapr package only goes back about a decade or so.

Thankfully, Hockey Reference has easily accessible (and scrapable) tables for us to use. Given that I am doing some updated analyses over NHL overtime rates, and that I wanted an easier method than copying and…

View original 101 more words

NFL Picks – Week 12

Total (weeks 1-12) – SU: 121-54-1 ATS: 88-86-2  O/U: 92-82-2 

Week 1 – SU: 9-7-0 ATS: 8-8-0 O/U: 13-3-0

Week 2 – SU: 10-6-0 ATS: 10-6-0 O/U: 10-6-0

Week 3 – SU: 12-4-0 ATS: 9-6-1  O/U: 8-8-0

Week 4 – SU: 7-6-0 ATS: 5-7-1  O/U: 5-8-0

Week 5 – SU: 14-2-0 ATS: 6-9-0  O/U: 9-6-0

Week 6 – SU: 11-3-1 ATS: 8-7-0  O/U: 6-9-1

Week 7 – SU: 11-4-0 ATS: 7-8-0  O/U: 8-7-0

Week 8 – SU: 11-3-0 ATS: 8-7-0 O/U: 8-7-0

Week 9 – SU: 9-4-0 ATS: 8-5-0 O/U: 4-8-1

Week 10 – SU: 9-4-0 ATS: 4-9-0 O/U: 6-7-0

Week 11 – SU: 9-5-0 ATS: 8-6-0 O/U: 7-7-0

Week 12 – SU: 10-5-0 ATS: 7-8-0 O/U: 8-7-0

Kansas City at Oakland

Prediction: Chiefs 21-19 (57.4%)

Pick: Raiders +7.5

Total: Under 42.5

Cleveland at Atlanta

Prediction: Falcons 25-21 (62.1%)

Pick: Falcons -3.5

Total: Under 47

NY Jets at Buffalo

Prediction:  Bills 22-18 (59.8%)

Pick: Jets +4.5

Total: Over 39

Tampa Bay at Chicago

Prediction: Bears 25-19 (66.3%)

Pick: Buccaneers +6.5

Total: Under 46.5

Miami at Denver

Prediction: Broncos 28-20 (71.7%)

Pick: Broncos -7.5

Total: Under 49.5

Cincinnati at Houston

Prediction: Texans 23-21 (55.2%)

Pick: Bengals +2.5

Total: Under 44

Jacksonville at Indianapolis

Prediction: Colts 27-18 (75.1%)

Pick: Jaguars +13.5

Total: Under 50.5

Green Bay at Minnesota

Prediction: Packers 24-21 (57.5%)

Pick: Vikings +9.5

Total: Under 49.5

Detroit at New England

Prediction: Patriots 28-23 (65.4%)

Pick: Lions +7.5

Total: Over 48.5

Dallas at NY Giants

Prediction: Giants 24-22 (53.3%)

Pick: Giants +3.5

Total: Under 48

Tennessee at Philadelphia

Prediction: Eagles 27-20 (68.8%)

Pick: Titans +11.5

Total: Under 49

St. Louis at San Diego 

Prediction: Chargers 24-19 (64.4%)

Pick: Rams +5.5

Total: Under 43.5

Washington at San Francisco

Prediction: 49ers 24-18 (68.0%)

Pick: Washington Football Team +8.5

Total: Under 44.5

Arizona at Seattle

Prediction: Seahawks 25-17 (70.1%)

Pick: Seahawks -6.5

Total: Under 42.5

Baltimore at New Orleans

Prediction: Saints 28-23 (63.6%)

Pick: Saints -3.5

Total: Over 50.5

Glenn Beck: Pseudoscience, Chiropractic, and Quackery

I read the article “Political Hack, Medical Quack” today about Glenn Beck and his medical problems and “treatment”.  You should read the whole thing, but there were a few quotes that I really liked.  This:

Yale neurologist and noted quackery hawk Steven Novella sums the situation up nicely: “Chiropractic neurology appears to me to be the very definition of pseudoscience—it has all the trappings of a legitimate profession, with a complex set of beliefs and practices, but there is no underlying scientific basis for any of it.”

And this:

A final, more general point: Why do celebrities keep forcing us to have these conversations about their private medical problems? Glenn Beck, Tom Cruise,Jenny McCarthy, and their ilk are entertainers, but they don’t know the first thing about evidence-based medicine. Their commentary isn’t helpful to people who do, and it has the potential to mislead people about how to manage their own health.

Cheers.

NCAA football ranking variablity

Massey collects a bunch of different college football rankings.  Below I’ve plotted the mean of these rankings on the x-axis and the standard deviation on the y-axis.  There is very little variability among the rankings for the teams at the very top and very bottom.  But in the middle, the variability is much larger.  The color of the circle represents the conference and the size of the circle corresponds to wins.

ncaaMeanSD

Let’s consider some of the interesting cases.  The team with the largest variability is Northern Illinois.  Their mean rank is 62 and are ranked as high as 23 and as low as 95.  Northern Illinois is 8-2 in the MAC and basically no one has any idea what to do with them.  They have some wins over bigger conference football teams such as Northwestern (who just beat Notre Dame somehow) and UNLV.  Their two losses are to Arkansas and Central Michigan.  They are indeed and very confusing team to rank.

Marshall is another interesting case.  Yes, they are undefeated, but they haven’t exactly played the most difficult schedule  (#understatement).  Some ranking called the Nolan Power index has them ranked 2 (behind Ohio State ?!?!).  They are also ranked as low as 37.  No one ever seems to know what to do with these undefeated teams that play terrible schedules.

Arkansas is the highest variability team of the major conferences.  They are 5-5 but all five of those losses came against teams that were ranked top 10 at the time they played (Auburn, Texas A&M, Alabama, Georgia, and Mississippi State). Their big win before this week was Northern Illinois.  And just this past week, they beat LSU.  That is indeed confusing.  As a result they are ranked as high as 10 and as low as 76 with an average of about 31.

Interesting stuff.

Cheers.