Super Bowl Prediction

Denver vs Carolina

Prediction: Denver 23-22

Side:  Denver +5.5

Total: Over 44.5

 

Cheers.

Maybe Doug Pederson wasn’t asinine after all

Anything that is not “conventional” wisdom gets mocked in the NFL. Until it becomes conventional wisdom and you get mocked for not doing it.

StatsbyLopez

Former Kansas City offensive coordinator Doug Pederson is receiving a ton of flack in NFL circles for his passive approach to the end of Saturday’s Divisional Round contest at New England.

Down a pair of touchdowns, Kansas City, with Pederson calling plays, methodically moved the ball down the field midway through the fourth quarter, eventually scoring with less than two minutes remaining. Throughout the drive, the Chiefs took their time.

“It took us time because No. 1, we did not want to give [Patriots QB] Tom Brady the ball back,’’ said Pederson.

The Chiefs preferred strategy, it appears, was to score a touchdown, recover an onside kick, and score the equalizer. This was preferred over an earlier touchdown and a traditional kickoff.

In the aftermath of Kansas City’s loss, Pederson’s comment has been ridiculed as the worst answer ever, as well as senseless. That was my instinct, too…

View original post 190 more words

NFL Picks – Divisional Round

Total (weeks 1-16) – SU: 136-87 ATS: 112-105-1 O/U: 121-96-2
Week 1 – SU: 10-6 ATS: 10-6 O/U: 11-5
Week 2 – SU: 8-8 ATS: 9-7 O/U: 9-7Week 3 – SU: 10-6 ATS: 2-14 O/U: 7-8-1

Week 4 – SU: 10-5 ATS: 9-6 O/U: 9-6

Week 5 – SU: 7-7 ATS: 9-4-1 O/U: 6-8

Week 6 – SU: 12-2 ATS: 9-4-1 O/U: 8-6

Week 7 – SU: 10-4 ATS: 6-8 O/U: 10-4

Week 8 – SU: 9-5 ATS: 7-5-2 O/U: 7-7

Week 9 – SU: 8-5 ATS: 5-8 O/U: 8-5

Week 10 – SU: 5-9 ATS: 8-6 O/U: 9-3-2

Week 11 – SU: 10-4 ATS: 6-7-1  O/U: 7-7

Week 12 – SU: 10-6 ATS: 9-7  O/U: 8-8

Week 13 – SU: 9-6 ATS: 7-8  O/U: 9-6

Week 14 – SU: 8-4 ATS: 7-5  O/U: 8-4

Week 15 – SU: 10-6 ATS: 7-8-1  O/U: 7-8-1

Week 16 – SU: 8-8 ATS: 9-7  O/U: 7-8-1

WC Round– SU: 3-1 ATS: 2-2 O/U: 1-3 

Pittsburgh at Denver

Prediction: Broncos 26-22

Pick: Steelers +7

Total: Over 39

Kansas City at New England

Prediction: Patriots 25-21

Pick: Chiefs +5

Total: Over 42

Seattle at Carolina

Prediction: Seahawks 21-19

Pick: Seahawks +2

Total: Under 44

Green Bay at Arizona

Prediction: Packers 23-22

Pick: Under 50

Total: Packers +7

 

Introduction to openWAR Package, Part 1

Exploring Baseball Data with R

Ben Baumer and Greg Matthews have a relatively new R package openWAR that facilitates calculation of WAR based on methodology from their recently published paper in the Journal of Quantitative Analysis of Sports. See their github site for a description of installing the package.

One attractive feature of the openWAR package is that it allows for downloading of MLBAM GameDay play-by-play data. Recently, I illustrated the use of the retrosheet package to download similar data from Retrosheet. We’ll see that the data frames that we get from MLBAM GameDay contain many more variables that facilitate developing interesting analysis.

In this post, I illustrate the downloading of play-by-play data, illustrate run expectancy calculations, and use the MLBAM GameDay data to show the locations of all in-play events for specific players.

Downloading MLBAM data

Once you have loaded the openWAR package, downloading data is remarkably easy. For example, to download all GameDay…

View original post 567 more words

NFL Picks – Wildcard Round

Total (weeks 1-16) – SU: 136-87 ATS: 112-105-1 O/U: 121-96-2
Week 1 – SU: 10-6 ATS: 10-6 O/U: 11-5
Week 2 – SU: 8-8 ATS: 9-7 O/U: 9-7Week 3 – SU: 10-6 ATS: 2-14 O/U: 7-8-1

Week 4 – SU: 10-5 ATS: 9-6 O/U: 9-6

Week 5 – SU: 7-7 ATS: 9-4-1 O/U: 6-8

Week 6 – SU: 12-2 ATS: 9-4-1 O/U: 8-6

Week 7 – SU: 10-4 ATS: 6-8 O/U: 10-4

Week 8 – SU: 9-5 ATS: 7-5-2 O/U: 7-7

Week 9 – SU: 8-5 ATS: 5-8 O/U: 8-5

Week 10 – SU: 5-9 ATS: 8-6 O/U: 9-3-2

Week 11 – SU: 10-4 ATS: 6-7-1  O/U: 7-7

Week 12 – SU: 10-6 ATS: 9-7  O/U: 8-8

Week 13 – SU: 9-6 ATS: 7-8  O/U: 9-6

Week 14 – SU: 8-4 ATS: 7-5  O/U: 8-4

Week 15 – SU: 10-6 ATS: 7-8-1  O/U: 7-8-1

Week 16 – SU: 8-8 ATS: 9-7  O/U: 7-8-1

WC Round– SU: 3-1 ATS: 2-2 O/U: 1-3 

Pittsburgh at Cincinnati

Prediction: Bengals 24-22

Pick: Bengals +3

Total: Over 45.5

Kansas City at Houston

Prediction: Chiefs 21-20

Pick: Texans +3

Total: Over 40

Seattle at Minnesota

Prediction: Seahawks 22-18

Pick: Seahawks -3.5

Total: Over 39.5

Green Bay at Washington

Prediction: Packers 25-21

Pick: Packers -1

Total: Over 45

NFL Picks – Week 17

Total (weeks 1-16) – SU: 136-87 ATS: 112-105-1 O/U: 121-96-2Week 1 – SU: 10-6 ATS: 10-6 O/U: 11-5

Week 2 – SU: 8-8 ATS: 9-7 O/U: 9-7

Week 3 – SU: 10-6 ATS: 2-14 O/U: 7-8-1

Week 4 – SU: 10-5 ATS: 9-6 O/U: 9-6

Week 5 – SU: 7-7 ATS: 9-4-1 O/U: 6-8

Week 6 – SU: 12-2 ATS: 9-4-1 O/U: 8-6

Week 7 – SU: 10-4 ATS: 6-8 O/U: 10-4

Week 8 – SU: 9-5 ATS: 7-5-2 O/U: 7-7

Week 9 – SU: 8-5 ATS: 5-8 O/U: 8-5

Week 10 – SU: 5-9 ATS: 8-6 O/U: 9-3-2

Week 11 – SU: 10-4 ATS: 6-7-1  O/U: 7-7

Week 12 – SU: 10-6 ATS: 9-7  O/U: 8-8

Week 13 – SU: 9-6 ATS: 7-8  O/U: 9-6

Week 14 – SU: 8-4 ATS: 7-5  O/U: 8-4

Week 15 – SU: 10-6 ATS: 7-8-1  O/U: 7-8-1

Week 16 – SU: 8-8 ATS: 9-7  O/U: 7-8-1

NY Jets at Buffalo

Prediction: Bills 21-19

Pick: Bills +3

Total: Under 41.5

Tampa Bay at Carolina

Prediction: Panthers 24-18

Pick: Buccaneers +11

Total: Under 46

New England at Miami

Prediction: Patriots 26-22

Pick: Dolphins +9.5

Total: Over 47

Baltimore at Cincinnati

Prediction: Bengals 23-20

Pick: Ravens +9.5

Total: Over 41.5

New Orleans at Atlanta

Prediction: Falcons 27-26

Pick: Falcons +5.5

Total: Over 52.5

Jacksonville at Houston

Prediction: Texans 24-18

Pick: Texans -5.5

Total: Under 45.5

Pittsburgh at Cleveland

Prediction: Steelers 24-22

Pick: Browns +11

Total: Under 47

Oakland at Kansas City

Prediction: Chiefs 24-18

Pick: Raiders +7

Total: Under 43.5

Tennessee at Indianapolis

Prediction: Colts 25-20

Pick: Titans +6

Total: Over 41.5

Washington at Dallas

Prediction: Cowboys 24-20

Pick: Dallas -4

Total: Over 39.5

Detroit at Chicago

Prediction: Bears 23-22

Pick: Bears EVEN

Total: Under 46.5

Philadelphia at NY Giants

Prediction: Giants 25-24

Pick: Eagles +4

Total: Under 51

Minnesota at Green Bay

Prediction: Packers 25-20

Pick: Packers -3

Total: Under 45.5

San Diego at Denver

Prediction: Broncos 26-21

Pick: Chargers +9

Total: Over 41

St. Louis at San Francisco

Prediction: 49ers 21-18

Pick: 49ers +3.5

Total: Over 37.5

Seattle at Arizona

Prediction: Seahawks 22-20

Pick: Seahawks +6.5

Total: Under 47

NFL Picks – Week 16

My record last year

Total (weeks 1-16) – SU: 136-87 ATS: 112-105-1 O/U: 121-96-2

Week 1 – SU: 10-6 ATS: 10-6 O/U: 11-5

Week 2 – SU: 8-8 ATS: 9-7 O/U: 9-7

Week 3 – SU: 10-6 ATS: 2-14 O/U: 7-8-1

Week 4 – SU: 10-5 ATS: 9-6 O/U: 9-6

Week 5 – SU: 7-7 ATS: 9-4-1 O/U: 6-8

Week 6 – SU: 12-2 ATS: 9-4-1 O/U: 8-6

Week 7 – SU: 10-4 ATS: 6-8 O/U: 10-4

Week 8 – SU: 9-5 ATS: 7-5-2 O/U: 7-7

Week 9 – SU: 8-5 ATS: 5-8 O/U: 8-5

Week 10 – SU: 5-9 ATS: 8-6 O/U: 9-3-2

Week 11 – SU: 10-4 ATS: 6-7-1  O/U: 7-7

Week 12 – SU: 10-6 ATS: 9-7  O/U: 8-8

Week 13 – SU: 9-6 ATS: 7-8  O/U: 9-6

Week 14 – SU: 8-4 ATS: 7-5  O/U: 8-4

Week 15 – SU: 10-6 ATS: 7-8-1  O/U: 7-8-1

Week 16 – SU: 8-8 ATS: 9-7  O/U: 7-8-1

San Diego at Oakland

Prediction: Chargers 23-22

Pick: Chargers +5.5

Total: Under 46

Washington at Philadelphia

Prediction: Eagles 26-22

Pick: Eagles -3

Total: Under 49

NY Giants at Minnesota

Prediction: Vikings 24-21

Pick: Giants +7

Total: Over 44

Chicago at Tampa Bay

Prediction: Buccaneers 22-21

Pick: Bears +3

Total: Under 44

Carolina at Atlanta

Prediction: Panthers 23-22

Pick: Falcons +6.5

Total: Under 47.5

Dallas at Buffalo

Prediction: Bills 22-20

Pick: Cowboys +6.5

Total: Over 42

Jacksonville at New Orleans

Prediction: Saints 28-21

Pick: Saints -2.5

Total: Under 52.5

San Francisco at Detroit

Prediction: Lions 22-20

Pick: 49ers +9.5

Total: Under 42

Cleveland at Kansas City

Prediction: Chiefs 24-19

Pick: Browns +11.5

Total: Over 42

Indianapolis at Miami

Prediction: Dolphins 24-22

Pick: Colts +2

Total: Over 44

New England at NY Jets

Prediction: Patriots 24-21

Pick: Patriots -2.5

Total: Over 45

Houston at Tennessee

Prediction: Texans 22-20

Pick: Tennessee +3.5

Total: Over 39.5

Green Bay at Arizona

Prediction: Packers 23-22

Pick: Packers +5.5

Total: Under 51

St. Louis at Seattle

Prediction: Seahawks 24-15

Pick: Rams +12

Total: Under 40 PUSH

Pittsburgh at Baltimore

Prediction: Ravens 23-22

Pick: Ravens +10

Total: Under 47

Cincinnati at Denver

Prediction: Broncos 24-21

Pick: Bengals +3.5

Total: Over 39.5

Presidential Debate Word Clouds, etc.

I started to make ONE word cloud of the presidential debate tonight, but then I just kept going and I made them for six of the debates.  My main motivation was to see how many times the democrats said the word “coalition” tonight (Answer: 22).  The word clouds contain all words that were mentioned (by either a candidate or a moderator) at least 20 times with blue for Democrat and red for GOP.  I’ve tried to exclude the moderators names and candidates who were in the particular debate (i.e. Trump won’t show up in the Republican word cloud, but he could show up in the Democratic one) though I will admit I didn’t clean this as thoroughly as I would usually because I just wanted to post something tonight.  I also decided not to do stemming for those of you who are interested in that type of detail because I didn’t want, for example, “secretari”showing up the word cloud.

 

Notes:

  • The candidates/moderators love talking about “people”.
  • The most notable change over time is the use of the word “ISIS”.  In the Democratic debate on 10/13/2015 “ISIS” was mentioned 4 times.  On 12/19/2015 it was mentioned 55 times.  In the 4 Republican debates used here, “ISIS” was mentioned 27, 3, 11, and 104 times for the debates on 9/16/2015, 10/28/2015, 11/10/2015, and 12/15/2015, respectively.
  • In the 4 Republican debates considered here, Republicans used the word “college” a TOTAL of 9 times across 4 debates.  Democrats mentioned “college” 22 times on 10/13/2015 and 24 times on 12/19/2015.

Other interesting things:

  • On 10/13/2015, “Clinton” was mentioned 110 times and “Sanders” was mentioned 108 times with “O’Malley” uttered 61 times.
  • On 12/19/2015,”Clinton” was mentioned 151 times and “Sanders” was mentioned 121 times with “O’Malley” uttered 70 times.
  • Note: I’m not making a distinction here between when “Clinton” gets mentioned in reference to Bill Clinton or Hillary Clinton.

 

  • On the Republican side, Trump has been mentioned the most in all 4 of the debates looked at here.  The second most mentions we to Bush, Fiorina, Kasich, and Cruz for the debates on 9/16/2015, 10/28/2015, 11/10/2015, and 12/15/2015, respectively.

 

The follow-up analysis to this will be to pull out what each specific candidate said and to analyze their individual word frequencies.

Cheers.

Donald Trump and Agrabah

Public Policy Polling published the results of a recent poll of 532 Republican primary voters.  Among other results, Trump is polling around 40% and 26% of respondents believe Islam should be illegal in the United States.

Now, I’m not a Trump supporter, but supporting him is a matter of personal preference.  If you want to support him, go nuts.  I think he’s terrible (because he’s actually terrible).  Also, I’ll just leave this right here:

Congress shall make no law respecting an establishment of religion, or prohibiting the free exercise thereof; or abridging the freedom of speech, or of the press; or the right of the people peaceably to assemble, and to petition the Government for a redress of grievances

 

But what really caught my attention was the final question in the poll (which is being written about all over the place right now here, here, and here, for instance):

Q38 Would you support or oppose bombing Agrabah?

The thing to note here is that Agrabah isn’t areal place.  It’s the fictional kingdom in Disney’s Aladdin.  Even so, 30% of the Republican respondents responded that they would be in support of this, while only 13% opposed this (57% were “not sure”).  PPP also broke down this question by which candidate they supported, and I’ve made a nice little mosaic plot to display it.  Screen Shot 2015-12-18 at 1.59.35 PM.png

Green is support, red is opposed, and gray is not sure.  The largest green rectangle are Trump supporter who supported this question.  To re-iterate those are people who support xenophobic sweet potato Donald Trump for president AND support bombing a fictional Disney kingdom.

On the other hand, I think asking question like this isn’t helpful.  No one likes to be made to feel stupid and asking a question like this seems to have the intention of pointing out how stupid people are.  Then we can all collectively laugh at how stupid people are.  But what good does that do anyone?  It makes these people feel like they are being talked down and condescended to.  And that’s kind of shitty.  Is there a legitimate reason to ask question like this?

Cheers.

 

NFL Picks – Week 15

My record last year

Total (weeks 1-15) – SU: 128-79 ATS: 103-98-1 O/U: 114-88-1

Week 1 – SU: 10-6 ATS: 10-6 O/U: 11-5

Week 2 – SU: 8-8 ATS: 9-7 O/U: 9-7

Week 3 – SU: 10-6 ATS: 2-14 O/U: 7-8-1

Week 4 – SU: 10-5 ATS: 9-6 O/U: 9-6

Week 5 – SU: 7-7 ATS: 9-4-1 O/U: 6-8

Week 6 – SU: 12-2 ATS: 9-4-1 O/U: 8-6

Week 7 – SU: 10-4 ATS: 6-8 O/U: 10-4

Week 8 – SU: 9-5 ATS: 7-5-2 O/U: 7-7

Week 9 – SU: 8-5 ATS: 5-8 O/U: 8-5

Week 10 – SU: 5-9 ATS: 8-6 O/U: 9-3-2

Week 11 – SU: 10-4 ATS: 6-7-1  O/U: 7-7

Week 12 – SU: 10-6 ATS: 9-7  O/U: 8-8

Week 13 – SU: 9-6 ATS: 7-8  O/U: 9-6

Week 14 – SU: 8-4 ATS: 7-5  O/U: 8-4

Week 15 – SU: 10-6 ATS: 7-8-1  O/U: 7-8-1

Tampa Bay at St. Louis

Prediction: Rams 21-19

Pick: Rams -1

Total: Under 41

NY Jets at Dallas

Prediction: Cowboys 22-19

Pick: Cowboys +3 PUSH

Total: Under 41.5

Chicago at Minnesota

Prediction: Vikings 22-21

Pick: Bears +6

Total: Over 43

Atlanta at Jacksonville

Prediction: Falcons 24-22

Pick: Falcons +3

Total: Under 49

Houston at Indianapolis

Prediction: Colts 23-22

Pick: Colts -1

Total: Over 41

Kansas City at Baltimore

Prediction: Ravens 22-21

Pick: Ravens +7

Total: Over 41

Buffalo at Washington

Prediction: Washington Football Team 22-21

Pick: Washington Football Team +1.5

Total: Under 44

Tennessee at New England

Prediction: Patriots 28-19

Pick: Titans +14

Total: Over 47

Arizona at Philadelphia

Prediction: Eagles 25-23

Pick: Eagles +3.5

Total: Under 51

Carolina at NY Giants

Prediction: Panthers 23-22

Pick: Giants +4.5

Total: Under 48

Cleveland at Seattle

Prediction: Seahawks 26-16

Pick: Browns +15

Total: Under 43 PUSH

Green Bay at Oakland

Prediction: Packers 25-20

Pick: Packers -3

Total: Under 47.5

Miami at San Diego

Prediction: Chargers 24-22

Pick: Chargers -1.5

Total: Over 45.5

Denver at Pittsburgh

Prediction: Broncos 24-23

Pick: Broncos +6

Total: Over 44.5

Cincinnati at San Francisco

Prediction: 49ers 22-19

Pick: 49ers +5.5

Total: Over 40.5

Detroit at New Orleans

Prediction: Saints 27-24

Pick: Saints -2.5

Total: Over 50

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