NFL Picks – Week 3

Total –  SU: 31-16-0 (65.96%) ATS: 26-20-1 (56.38% +4 Units) O/U: 31-16-0 (65.96% +13.4 Units)

Week 1 – SU: 10-6-0 ATS: 8-8-0 O/U: 13-3-0

Week 2 – SU: 10-6-0 ATS: 10-6-0 O/U: 10-6-0

Week 3 – SU: 11-4-0 ATS: 8-6-1  O/U: 8-7

Tampa Bay at Atlanta

Prediction: Falcons 24-20 (62.5%)

Pick: Buccaneers +6.5 (55.8%)

Total: Under 45

San Francisco at Arizona

Prediction: 49ers 22-20 (55.9%)

Pick: Cardinals +3 (52.7%)

Total: Under 42.5 

San Diego at Buffalo

Prediction: Bills 23-22 (51.8%)

Pick: Chargers +2.5 (55.3%)

Total: Over 44.5

Tennessee at Cincinnati

Prediction: Bengals 24-19 (64.5%)

Pick: Titans +7 (55.1%)

Total: Under 43.5 

Baltimore at Cleveland

Prediction: Ravens 22-21 (53.5%)

Pick: Browns +2 (52.2%) PUSH

Total: Over 42

Green Bay at Detroit

Prediction: Lions 25-24 (53.4%)

Pick: Lions -1 (50.5%)

Total: Under 52.5

Indianapolis at Jacksonville

Prediction: Colts 23-20 (57.4%)

 Pick: Jaguars +7 (62.3%)

Total: Under 45.5 

Kansas City at Miami

Prediction: Dolphins 21-19 (55.9%)

Pick: Chiefs +5 (58.2%)

Total: Under 41.5

Oakland at New England

Prediction: Patriots 29-19 (77.2%)

Pick: Raiders +14.5 (61.5%)

Total: Over 47

Minnesota at New Orleans

Prediction: Saints 27-20 (68.3%)

Pick: Vikings +9.5 (58.0%)

Total: Under 51

Houston at NY Giants

Prediction: Giants 22-21 (51.1%)

Pick: Giants +2.5 (58.2%)

Total: Over 42

Washington at Philadelphia

Prediction: Eagles 25-22 (59.8%)

Pick: Washington Football Team +6.5 (58.6%)

Total: Under 50

Denver at Seattle

Prediction: Seahawks 24-22 (54.6%)

Pick: Broncos +4.5 (58.2%)

Total: Under 49

Dallas at St. Louis

Prediction: Cowboys 23-22 (53.0%)

Pick: Rams +2 (52.7%)

Total: Under 45.5

Pittsburgh at Carolina

Prediction: Panthers 23-20 (59.4%)

Pick: Steelers +3.5 (50.5%)

Total: Over 41.5

Chicago at NY Jets

Prediction: Bears 21-20

Pick: Bears +2.5 (60.1%)

Total: Under 45.5

Week 9 NFL Playoff Probabilities

2013-Week-9-Playoff-Probs

So the Browns beating the Ravens flipped them behind the Browns, but the big moves came in the AFC East where the saw-tooth Jets have almost caught up with Dolphins (the Dolphins, by dint of the remaining schedule, hold the edge, despite trailing by a half-game… I think half-games are a thing in football. I already miss baseball…). Meanwhile the Chargers really shot themselves in the foot, while the Titans beat the lowly Rams, and towed the line. So it is looking like it’s now Jets/Dolphins/Browns/Titans for the sixth AFC playoff spot.

Meanwhile in the NFC, things are interesting, the Saints and Panthers apparently are trying to making a bit of a race of the NFC South. The NFC North is where the accent is really alive, though, with the Packers, Bears and Lions all sitting at 5-3. The Bears have the toughest schedule of the group (only three crappy teams left on their schedule, with the Ravens, Rams and Vikes. The Packers have four (Giants, Vikings, Steelers, and Falcons) and Lions have five crappy  Steelers, Giants, Vikings, Bucs, and Ravens. The Lions are in a virtual tie with the Packers in our formula, but schedule may suggest that’s who has the edge. Only time will tell.

2013 NFL Preview

Projected Record

Team – (Median wins) expected wins

AFC East

New England – (11-5) 10.588

Miami – (8-8) 7.57

NY Jets (7-9) 6.843

Buffalo – (7-9) 6.634

AFC North

Baltimore (9-7) 8.816

Cincinnati – (8-8) 8.179

Pittsburgh – (8-8) 8.135

Cleveland – (7-9) 7.282

AFC South

Houston (9-7) 9.448

Indianapolis – (8-8) 7.698

Tennessee (6-10) 6.226

Jacksonville (6-10) 5.814

AFC West

Denver – (10-6) 10.082

San Diego – (8-8) 7.864

Kansas City – (7-9) 6.655

Oakland – (6-10) 6.33

NFC East

NY Giants (9-7) 9.238

Washington (9-7) 8.772

Dallas (8-8) 7.771

Philadelphia (6-10) 6.367

NFC North

Chicago (9-7) 8.978

Green Bay (8-8) 8.439

Minnesota (8-8) 8.078

Detroit (7-9) 7.365

NFC South

Atlanta (9-7) 9.205

Carolina (8-8) 7.820

New Orleans (8-8) 7.677

Tampa Bay (7-9) 7.516

NFC West

San Francisco (10-6) 10.150

Seattle (10-6) 10.071

St. Louis (8-8) 7.735

Arizona (7-9) 6.612

Projected Playoffs

AFC

1. New England

2. Denver

3. Houston

4. Baltimore

5. Cincinnati

6. Pittsburgh

NFC

1. San Francisco

2. NY Giants

3. Atlanta

4. Chicago

5. Seattle

6. Washington

Projected Wild Card Round

AFC

Houston beats Pittsburgh 23-19

Baltimore beats Cincinnati 23-20

NFC

Atlanta beats Washington 27-24

Seattle beats Chicago 21-17

Projected Divisional Round

AFC

New England beats Baltimore 31-26

Denver beats Houston 24-23

NFC

San Francisco beats Seattle 21-20

Atlanta beats NY Giants 24-22

Projected Conference Round

AFC

New England beats Denver 30-26

NFC

San Francisco beats Atlanta 24-21

Super Bowl

AFC

New England beats San Francisco 28-27

 

 

 

NFL Predictions – Week 10

Week 9 was my worst week of the year against the spread and my best week of the year picking winners straight-up.

Overall Records for 2012

SU: 90-55-1 (61.99%)

ATS: 79-67 (54.11%) (ROI: 5.92%)

O/U: 79-63-1 (55.59%) (ROI: 8.99%)

Week 10 (6-7-1 SU, 7-7 ATS, 8-6 O/U)

Week 9 (11-3 SU, 6-8 ATS, 6-7-1 O/U)

Week 8 (10-4 SU, 9-5 ATS, 9-4 O/U)

Week 7 (10-3 SU, 6-7 ATS, 6-7 O/U)

Week 6 (6-8 SU, 7-7 ATS, 6-7 O/U)

Week 5 (10-4 SU, 7-7 ATS, 7-7 O/U)

Week 4 (10-5 SU, 10-5 ATS, 12-2 O/U)

Week 3 (5-11 SU, 9-7 ATS, 9-7 O/U)

Week 2 (11-5 SU, 9-7 ATS, 8-8 O/U)

Week 1 (11-5 SU, 9-7 ATS, 8-8 O/U)

Week 10

Thursday @8:20pm

Indianapolis Colts at Jacksonville Jaguars

Prediction: Colts win 23-14

Pick: Colts +3

O/U: Under 42.5

Sunday @1pm

Buffalo Bills at New England Patriots

Prediction: Patriots win 35-21

Pick: Patriots -11

O/U: Over 51

New York Giants at Cincinnati Bengals

Prediction: Giants win 27-24

Pick: Bengals +4

O/U: Over 48.5

San Diego Chargers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Prediction: Chargers win 27-26

Pick: Chargers +3

O/U: Over 48

Denver Broncos at Carolina Panthers

Prediction: Broncos win 24-23

Pick: Panthers +4.5

O/U: Under 48

Tennessee Titans at Miami Dolphins

Prediction: Dolphins win 22-21

Pick: Titans +6

O/U: Under 44.5

Oakland Raiders at Baltimore Ravens

Prediction: Ravens win 27-23

Pick:  Raiders +7.5

O/U: Over 46

Atlanta Falcons at New Orleans Saints

Prediction: Falcons win 26-25

Pick: Saints +2.5

O/U: Under 53.5

Detroit Lions at Minnesota Vikings

Prediction: Lions win 28-25

Pick: Lions -2

O/U: Over 47

Sunday @4:05pm

New York Jets at Seattle Seahawks

Prediction: Seahawks win 23-22

Pick: Jets +6.5

O/U: Over 38.5

Sunday @4:25pm

Dallas Cowboys at Philadelphia Eagles

Prediction: Eagles win 26-24

Pick: Eagles -1.5

O/U: Over 45

St. Louis Rams at San Francisco 49ers

Prediction: 49ers win 28-16 (TIE?)

Pick: Rams +11.5

O/U: Over 38.5

Sunday @8:20pm

Houston Texans at Chicago Bears

Prediction: Bears win 26-25

Pick: Texans +1

O/U: Over 42

Monday @8:30pm

Kansas City Chiefs at Pittsburgh Steelers

Prediction: Steelers win 25-18

Pick: Chiefs +12.5

O/U: Over 43

Cheers.

NFL Predictions – Week 9

Overall Records for 2012

SU: 84-48

ATS: 72-60

O/U: 71-57-1

Week 9 (11-3 SU, 6-8 ATS, 6-7-1 O/U)

Week 8 (10-4 SU, 9-5 ATS, 9-4 O/U)

Week 7 (10-3 SU, 6-7 ATS, 6-7 O/U)

Week 6 (6-8 SU, 7-7 ATS, 6-7 O/U)

Week 5 (10-4 SU, 7-7 ATS, 7-7 O/U)

Week 4 (10-5 SU, 10-5 ATS, 12-2 O/U)

Week 3 (5-11 SU, 9-7 ATS, 9-7 O/U)

Week 2 (11-5 SU, 9-7 ATS, 8-8 O/U)

Week 1 (11-5 SU, 9-7 ATS, 8-8 O/U)

Week 9

Thursday @8:25pm

Kansas City Chiefs at San Diego Chargers

Prediction: Chargers win 25-19

Pick: Chiefs +8.5

O/U: Over 42.5

Sunday @1pm

Denver Broncos at Cincinnati Bengals

Prediction: Broncos win 24-23

Pick: Bengals +3

O/U: Over 47

Arizona Cardinals at Green Bay Packers

Prediction: Packers win 27-21

Pick: Cardinals +11

O/U: Over 44.5

Miami Dolphins at Indianapolis Colts

Prediction: Colts win 25-21

Pick: Colts +2

O/U: Over 43 PUSH

Baltimore Ravens at Cleveland Browns

Prediction: Ravens 24-18

Pick: Ravens -3.5

O/U: Under 42.5

Buffalo Bills at Houston Texans

Prediction: Texans win 27-24

Pick: Bills +10.5

O/U: Over 47

Carolina Panthers at Washington Redskins

Prediction: Redskins 27-24

Pick:  Panthers +3.5

O/U: Over 46

Detroit Lions at Jacksonville Jaguars

Prediction: Lions win 28-15

Pick: Lions -4

O/U: Under 44

Chicago Bears at Tennessee Titans

Prediction: Bears win 24-22

Pick: Titans +3.5

O/U: Over 43.5

Sunday @4:05pm

Minnesota Vikings at Seattle Seahawks

Prediction: Vikings win 24-23

Pick: Vikings +5

O/U: Over 39.5

Sunday @4:25pm

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Oakland Raiders

Prediction: Buccaneers win 22-21

Pick: Buccaneers +1.5

O/U: Under 45

Sunday @8:30pm

Pittsburgh Steelers at New York Giants

Prediction: Giants win 27-25

Pick: Steelers +3.5

O/U: Over 47

Sunday @8:30pm

Dallas Cowboys at Atlanta Falcons

Prediction: Falcons win 26-22

Pick: Cowboys +5

O/U: Over 47.5

Monday @8:40pm

Philadelphia Eagles at New Orleans Saints

Prediction: Saints win 27-26

Pick: Eagles +3.5

O/U: Over 52.5

Cheers.

NFL Rankings – 10/31/2012

StatsInTheWild NFL rankings as of October 31, 2012 at 12:34pm.  SOS=strength of schedule

Team Rank Change Record ESPN TeamRankings.com SOS Points Diff
Houston 1 ↑1 6-1 1 2 17 +88
Chicago 2 ↓1 6-1 5 3 9 +85
San Francisco 3 - 6-2 4 5 6 +86
New England 4 ↑4 5-3 8 8 12 +92
Atlanta 5 ↑1 7-0 1 1 29 +71
Green Bay 6 ↓2 5-3 6 6 7 +38
NY Giants 7 - 6-2 2 4 22 +73
Minnesota 8 ↓3 5-3 11 16 5 +17
Denver 9 ↑6 4-3 9 7 28 +52
Miami 10 ↑4 4-3 12 9 15 +24
Baltimore 11 ↑1 5-2 7 10 24 +13
Seattle 12 ↓3 4-4 13 12 4 +6
Arizona 13 ↓3 4-4 16 22 1 -15
Detroit 14 ↓1 3-4 17 13 2 -13
Pittsburgh 15 ↑4 4-3 10 11 31 +23
Tampa Bay 16 ↑5 3-4 21 23 23 +31
St. Louis 17 ↓6 3-5 23 20 3 -49
Dallas 18 ↓1 3-4 14 15 16 -25
NY Jets 19 ↓1 3-5 25 17 11 -32
Indianapolis 20 ↑2 4-3 15 14 19 -35
Washington 21 ↓5 3-5 19 19 21 -14
San Diego 22 ↑1 3-4 20 28 32 +10
Buffalo 23 ↑2 3-4 28 25 13 -56
Philadelphia 24 ↓4 3-4 18 18 20 -35
Cincinnati 25 ↑1 3-4 22 26 27 -21
New Orleans 26 ↓2 2-5 26 27 14 -26
Carolina 27 ↑1 1-6 30 30 18 -39
Oakland 28 ↑3 3-4 24 21 30 -48
Tennessee 29 ↓2 3-5 27 24 8 -95
Cleveland 30 - 2-6 29 29 25 -32
Jacksonville 31 ↓2 1-6 31 31 10 -85
Kansas City 32 - 1-6 32 32 26 -89

Best

Best team in the league: Houston

Best undefeated team: Atlanta

Best 6 win team: Houston

Best 5 win team: New England

Best 4 win team: Denver

Best 3 win team: Detroit

Best 2 win team: New Orleans

Best 1 win team: Carolina

Worst

Worst 6 win team: NY Giants

Worst 5 win team: Baltimore

Worst 4 win team: Indianapolis

Worst 3 win team: Tennessee

Worst 2 win team: Cleveland

Worst 1 win team: Kansas City

Worst team in the league: Kansas City

Most

Most under-rated team: (#17) St. Louis (ESPN has them 23) and (#19) NY Jets (ESPN has them at 25)

Most over-rated team: (#24) Philadelphia (ESPN has them 18)

Cheers.

 

RIPPEN after week 8

An explanation of RIPPEN

Alex Smith’s performance on Monday night was the best performance by a quarterback in any game this season with a RIPPEN of 57.977. The next closest performance was Aaron Rodgers in week 7 with a RIPPEN of 43.235.

Smith’s incredible performance on Monday night wasn’t perfect though according to passer rating.  He only charted a 157.1, which is, of course, absolutely ridiculous.  Take a look at the list of games where the QB has ended with a perfect rating and try to tell me with a straight face that Alex Smith’s Monday night performance was worse than all of these.  For instance, in 2005 Roethlisberger finished a game 9 for 11 with 232 passing yards and 2 TD and a perfect passer rating.  How in the world can that be better than Alex Smith’s 18 for 19 performance for 232 yards and three touchdowns?  It’s because passer rating is terrible.

RIPPEN rankings for week 8 performances:

Player Team RIPPEN QB rating
Smith, A.  SF 57.977 157.1
Manning, P. DEN 32.232 138.9
Ryan, M. ATL 30.023 137.4
Brady, T. NE 26.385 131.1
Roethlisberger, B. PIT 24.045 121.0
Stafford, M. DET 23.692 101.7
Luck, A. IND 21.747 89.5
Wilson, R. SEA 19.716 96.8
Cutler, J. CHI 18.324 83.3
Freeman, J. TB 17.853 104.2
Newton, C. CAR 17.054 57.0
Ponder, C. MIN 16.026 74.8
Bradford, S. STL 16.004 88.9
Cassel, M. KC 14.130 85.1
Gabbert, B. JAX 13.057 80.6
Manning, E. NYG 12.378 58.4
Rodgers, A. GB 12.331 95.7
Romo, T. DAL 12.222 58.3
Palmer, C. OAK 10.750 83.8
Vick, M. PHI 10.046 84.3
Griffin, III, R. WAS 9.623 72.8
Sanchez, M NYJ 8.801 65.6
Skelton, J. ARI 8.159 68.6
Brees, D. NO 8.158 72.8
Weeden, B. CLE 7.906 55.9
Tannehill, R. MIA 3.299 50.4
Rivers, P. SD 2.015 65.1

Season RIPPEN rankings through 8 weeks of games:

Player Team RIPPEN QB rating
Manning, P. DEN 30.093 109.0
Rodgers, A. GB 24.579 107.9
Brady, T. NE 23.768 100.6
Griffin, III, R. WAS 23.374 97.3
Smith, A. SF 22.617 102.1
Ryan, M. ATL 22.566 103.0
Schaub, M. HOU 22.415 93.1
Newton, C. CAR 21.982 75.2
Roethlisberger, B. PIT 20.834 101.4
Brees, D. NO 18.954 93.0
Freeman, J. TB 18.242 93.3
Manning, E. NYG 17.580 89.1
Bradford, S. STL 17.485 82.4
Locker, J. TEN 17.147 90.2
Romo, T. DAL 16.548 78.8
Stafford, M. DET 16.317 82.1
Tannehill, R. MIA 16.205 75.8
Ponder, C. MIN 16.113 85.8
Cutler, J. DEN 15.904 78.9
Dalton, A. CIN 15.372 87.7
Luck, A. IND 14.992 74.6
Vick, M. PHI 14.703 78.6
Wilson, R. SEA 14.229 82.4
Palmer, C. OAK 14.062 85.7
Flacco, J. BAL 13.770 84.0
Rivers, P. SD 13.328 82.4
Fitzpatrick, R. BUF 12.039 86.1
Weeden, B. CLE 11.485 70.8
Sanchez, M. NYJ 11.484 72.8
Cassel, M. KC 10.430 69.0
Kolb, K. ARI 9.662 86.1
Gabbert, B. JAX 8.943 77.9
Skelton, J. ARI 8.363 64.5
Hasselbeck, M. TEN 8.039 83.3

 

Cheers.