Updated: December 11, 2014

Retro is based only on games played in 2013 and heavily weighs strength of schedule.  New Orleans is ranked number 1 based on this as they finished 11-5 and played 10 teams who finished 8-8 or better.

Prosp is based on 4 years of data weighted fro recency.  It’s based on expected points with New England ranked number 1 in this measure.

Both Retro and Prosp are framed in terms of the probability of defeating and average team.

predMargin column is the average margin of victory if each team played every other team at home and away.  Denver is ranked number 1 in this measure due to their ability and willingness to score a ton of points.

After week 14

Rank Team Retro Prosp PredMargin Change W L 1 Denver 65 77 5.458  +1  10  3 2 New England 65 78 4.085  -1  10  3 3 Seattle 62 78 4.753  +2  9  4 4 Arizona 62 43 -0.817  -1  10  3 5 Green Bay 61 66 3.331  +1  10 3 6 Philadelphia 57 64 1.580  +3  9  4 7 San Diego 57 49 0.094  0  8  5 8 Detroit 56 56 1.269  +8  9 4 9 Indianapolis 56 53 0.755  +3  9  4 10 Kansas City 56 49 0.028  -6  7 6 11 Miami 55 44 -0.270  -1  7  6 12 Dallas 55 49 0.441  -1 9  4 13 Baltimore 54 50 1.158  +1  8 5 14 Buffalo 54 53 -0.926  +1  7 6 15 San Francisco 53 63 3.046  -7  7 6 16 Cincinnati 53 47 0.814  -3  8.5 4.5 17 Pittsburgh 52 54 0.842  0  8  5 18 St. Louis 50 43 -2.145  +3  6  7 19 Houston 49 54 0.385  +1  7  6 20 Minnesota 48 42 -2.052  +3  6  7 21 Cleveland 47 39 -1.775  -3  7  6 22 Chicago 45 49 -0.100  -3  5  8 23 New Orleans 44 63 3.103  -1  5  8 24 NY Giants 43 43 -0.923  0  4  9 25 Atlanta 43 47 -0.417  0  5  8 26 Carolina 42 56 0.147  0  4.5  8.5 27 Oakland 40 27 -4.935  +1  2  11 28 NY Jets 38 40 -2.384  -1  2  11 29 Washington 36 50 -1.238  0  3  10 30 Tampa Bay 33 29 -3.228  +1  2  11 31 Tennessee 33 25 -3.604  -1  2  11 32 Jacksonville 33 19 -6.476  0  2  11

 

After week 12

Rank Team Retro Prosp PredMargin Change W L 1 New England 65 80 4.218  +1  9  2 2 Denver 63 76 5.491  +1  8  3 3 Arizona 63 44 -0.751  -2  9  2 4 Kansas City 59 52 0.018  0  7  4 5 Seattle 59 74 4.478  +1  7  4 6 Green Bay 58 65 3.107  -1  8  3 7 San Diego 58 49 0.212  +1  7  4 8 San Francisco 57 68 3.344  +1  7  4 9 Philadelphia 57 64 1.551  +1  8  3 10 Miami 56 46 -0.317  -3  6  5 11 Dallas 56 52 0.492  +1  8  3 12 Indianapolis 55 54 0.668 +1   7  4 13 Cincinnati 54 49 0.888  +1  7.5  3.5 14 Baltimore 54 48 1.004  +1  7  4 15 Buffalo 54 52 -1.067  +1  6  5 16 Detroit 53 53 0.876  -5  7  4 17 Pittsburgh 52 50 0.473  0  7  4 18 Cleveland 50 38 -1.794  0  7  4 19 Chicago 47 53 0.307  +3  5  6 20 Houston 47 54 0.292  -1  5  6 21 St. Louis 47 39 -2.533  -1  4  7 22 New Orleans 45 66 3.393  -1  4  7 23 Minnesota 44 41 -2.119  0  4  7 24 NY Giants 42 44 -0.850  0  3  8 25 Atlanta 42 45 -0.266  0  4  7 26 Carolina 41 51 -0.070  +1  3.5  7.5 27 NY Jets 40 38 -2.384  -1  2  9 28 Oakland 39 27 -4.867  +2  1  10 29 Washington 39 52 -0.896  -1  3  8 30 Tennessee 37 28 -3.367  -1  2  9 31 Tampa Bay 35 29 -3.010  0  2  9 32 Jacksonville 34 19 -6.522  0 1  10

 

After week 11

Rank Team Retro Prosp PredMargin Change W L 1 Arizona 65 45 -0.708  9  1 2 New England 63 80 4.086  8  2 3 Denver 61 73 5.332  7  3 4 Kansas City 60 55 0.094  7  3 5 Green Bay 57 66 3.107  7  3 6 Seattle 57 74 4.460  6  4 7 Miami 57 46 -0.413  6  4 8 San Diego 56 48 0.199  6  4 9 San Francisco 56 69 3.392  6  4 10 Philadelphia 56 62 1.265 7  3 11 Detroit 56 52 0.938  7  3 12 Dallas 55 54 0.462  7  3 13 Indianapolis 53 54 0.613  6  4 14 Cincinnati 53 48 0.843  6.5  3.5 15 Baltimore 52 46 0.846  6  4 16 Buffalo 52 51 -1.083  5  5 17 Pittsburgh 52 49 0.394  7  4 18 Cleveland 49 37 -1.923  6  4 19 Houston 48 56 0.400  5  5 20 St. Louis 48 40 -2.587  4  6 21 New Orleans 47 65 3.397  4  6 22 Chicago 47 54 0.461  4  6 23 Minnesota 46 43 -1.933  4  6 24 NY Giants 44 43 -0.760  3  7 25 Atlanta 43 47 -0.068  4  6 26 NY Jets 42 39 -2.341  2  8 27 Carolina 41 51 -0.071  3.5  7.5 28 Washington 40 50 -0.978  3  7 29 Tennessee 38 29 -3.159  2  8 30 Oakland 37 26 -4.809  0  10 31 Tampa Bay 36 30 -3.039  2  8 32 Jacksonville 35 19 -6.416  1  9

 

After week 7

Rank Team Retro Prosp PredMargin Change W L 1 Denver 61 69 4.810  +1  5  1 2 Dallas 59 56 0.527  +3  6  1 3 Arizona 59 44 -0.923  +2  5  1 4 Philadelphia 59 59 0.785  -1  5  1 5 San Diego 58 54 0.509  -4  5  2 6 Indianapolis 58 57 0.357  +2  5  2 7 New England 55 74 3.748  +3  5  2 8 Baltimore 55 47 0.651  +1  5  2 9 Green Bay 54 61 2.733  +4  5  2 10 San Francisco 54 67 3.272  -4  4  3 11 Seattle 54 68 4.061  -4  3  3 12 Detroit 54 49 0.680  0  5  2 13 Kansas City 53 57 -0.197  +3  3  3 14 Cincinnati 51 50 1.316  -3  3.5  2.5 15 Buffalo 51 49 -1.161  +5  4  3 16 Miami 51 43 -0.717 +6   3  3 17 NY Giants 50 45 -0.510  -3  3  4 18 Pittsburgh 49 44 0.134  +3  4  3 19 Houston 49 54 0.358  -1  3  4 20 Cleveland 47 39 -2.041  -5  3  3 21 Chicago 47 54 0.760  -2  3  4 22 Carolina 47 56 0.686  -5  3.5  3.5 23 St. Louis 46 43 -2.156  +2  2  4 24 New Orleans 45 60 2.907  -1  2  4 25 Tennessee 45 37 -2.388  -1  2  5 26 Washington 45 50 -0.985  +2  2  5 27 Minnesota 43 42 -2.063  0  2  5 28 Atlanta 41 48 0.053  -2  2  5 29 NY Jets 41 37 -2.181  0  1  6 30 Jacksonville 41 21 -6.292  +2  1  6 31 Oakland 40 33 -4.270  -1  0  6 32 Tampa Bay 38 33 -2.463  -1  1  5

 

After week 3

Team Retro Prosp PredMargin W L Change Cincinnati 58 63 1.803 3  0 +1 Arizona 56 52 -0.462 3  0 +5 Philadelphia 55 57 0.742 3  0 +3 San Diego 53 52 0.033 2  1 +6 Baltimore 53 56 1.062  2  1 +7 Seattle 53 65 3.663  2  1 +5 Atlanta 53 63 1.045  2  1 +15 Carolina 53 56 0.983  2  1 -5 Pittsburgh 52 51 0.657  2  1 +14 Chicago 52 60 1.214  2  1 -1 Detroit 52 54 1.286  2  1 +4 Denver 52 57 3.691  2  1 -7 Dallas 52 51 0.267  2  1 +7 New England 51 76 4.353  2  1 -6 Houston 51 55 0.786  2  1 -11 Buffalo 51 47 -1.842  2  1 -15 New Orleans 50 62 2.991  1  2 +9 San Francisco 49 61 3.319  1  2 -1 Indianapolis 49 42 -1.132  1  2 +9 Cleveland 49 42 -2.095  1  2 +1 Washington 49 57 -0.535  1  2 -2 NY Giants 48 49 -0.266  1  2 +9 Kansas City 48 41 -1.539  1  2 +6 Green Bay 47 55 2.372  1  2 -6 Minnesota 47 35 -2.273  1  2 -11 Tennessee 47 43 -1.621  1  2 -3 NY Jets 47 41 -1.745  1  2 -11 St. Louis 47 37 -2.628  1  2 -3 Miami 46 39 -1.151  1  2 -16 Tampa Bay 44 35 -2.110  0  3 -3 Oakland 43 30 -4.257  0  3 -2 Jacksonville 42 19 -6.610  0  3 0

After week 2

Team Retro Prosp PredMargin W L Change Buffalo 55 54 -1.504  2 0 +5 Cincinnati 55 58 1.503  2 0 +6 Carolina 55 61 1.295  2  0 +2 Houston 54 60 1.071  2  0 +10 Denver 54 55 3.741  2 0 +4 Philadelphia 54 62 1.173  2 0 +7 Arizona 53 48 -0.773  2  0 +8 New England 51 79 4.436  1  1 +14 Chicago 51 61 1.330  1  1 +8 San Diego 51 51 0.035  1  1 +9 Seattle 51 60 3.220  1  1 -4 Baltimore 51 52 0.867  1  1 +4 Miami 50 39 -1.282 1  1 -10 Minnesota 50 42 -1.767  1  1 -13 Detroit 50 55 1.376  1  1 -13 NY Jets 50 41 -1.833  1  1 -12 San Francisco 50 61 3.373  1  1 -5 Green Bay 50 55 2.360  1  1  +3 Washington 50 63 -0.231  1  1 +9 Dallas 50 55 0.535  1  1 +12 Cleveland 50 36 -2.530  1  1 +3 Atlanta 49 54 0.378  1  1 -12 Tennessee 49 43 -1.615  1  1 -12 Pittsburgh 49 41 0.054  1  1 -6 St. Louis 48 36 -2.721  1  1 +5 New Orleans 47 59 2.720  0  2 -6 Tampa Bay 46 38 -1.842  0  2 -2 Indianapolis 46 38 -1.416  0  2 -1 Oakland 46 36 -3.714  0  2 -5 Kansas City 45 43 -1.245  0  2 -4 NY Giants 45 42 -0.658  0  2 0 Jacksonville 44 22 -6.338  0  2 0

After week 1

Team Retro Prosp PredMargin W L Minnesota 53 50 -0.0085  1 0 Detroit 53 58 1.0420  1 0 Miami 53 39 -1.2859  1 0 NY Jets 53 45 -0.6256  1 0 Carolina 53 62 1.4744  1 0 Buffalo 52 51 0.1176  1 0 Seattle 52 70 2.6087  1 0 Cincinnati 52 53 0.3670  1 0 Denver 52 65 1.9273  1 0 Atlanta 52 60 1.2466  1 0 Tennessee 52 48 -0.6841  1 0 San Francisco 52 67 2.1584  1 0 Philadelphia 52 61 1.3724  1 0 Houston 52 55 0.5997  1 0 Arizona 51 42 -0.9491  1 0 Baltimore 51 51 0.2132  1 1 Chicago 49 55 0.7001  0 1 Pittsburgh 49 40 -1.1410  1 1 San Diego 49 46 -0.4598  0 1 New Orleans 49 64 1.8075  0 1 Green Bay 48 54 0.5537  0 1 New England 48 73 3.1073  0 1 Oakland 48 35 -1.8840  0 1 Cleveland 48 36 -1.8181  0 1 Tampa Bay 48 37 -1.5928  0 1 Kansas City 48 40 -1.2260  0 1 Indianapolis 47 41 -1.1321  0 1 Washington 47 55 0.3345  0 1 Jacksonville 47 29 -2.8075  0 1 St. Louis 47 37 -1.6713  0 1 NY Giants 47 37 -1.5413  0 1 Dallas 47 43 -0.8034  0 1