Category Archives: NFL

Biggest NFL Spread Changes in Rematches in 2018

The Bears just clinched the NFC North for the first time in, I want to say, 100 years, by beating the Green Bay Packers last weekend at Soldier Field.  Their week 15 meeting was the second time these division rivals have played this season and their first meeting came way back in week 1 when Chicago blew a 20 point lead and they looked well on their way to a 5-11 season, while Aaron Rodgers looked like Superman.  But that was a long time ago and everyone seems to have caught up to the idea that the Bears are good this year and Green Bay is not.  And you can see this in the spreads for the two games.

In the first meeting at Lambeau Field in week 1, the Packers were 6.5 point favorites over the Bears, who covered despite losing in crushing fashion.  14 weeks later and spread for the Bears-Packers game at Soldier Field was Bears -5.5.  That is a shift of 12 points.

Now some of this has to do with home field advantage.  If two teams were essentially equal on a neutral field, you’d expect this difference to be about 6-ish (-3 at home and +3 away).  But 12 seemed rather large to me, and I wondered if that was the largest shift in spreads in a rematch this year.  While it is not, in fact, the largest, it is close.  There were two matchups that had a larger shift in spreads.  Stop reading and try to guess what those match-ups were.

Screen Shot 2018-12-21 at 10.11.58 AM.png

Ok.  You ready now?  The largest difference this year was the Titans and Jaguars.  In September the home Jaguars were favored by 10 over the Titans in week 3.  In week 13, The Titans at home were favored by 5.5, for a 15.5 point swing.  Coming in at number 2 was Atlanta and New Orleans. In their first meeting in week 3, the Falcons were favored by 2.  In week 11, the Saints were favored by 12.5.  The previously mentioned Bears and Packers came in at 3rd largest with a shift of 12.0.

Screen Shot 2018-12-21 at 12.01.37 PM.png

The only other two double digit shifts were Buffalo-NY Jets and Dallas-Philadelphia.  The Bill vs Jets shift happened in only 4 weeks.  In week 10, the Jets were favored by 7, then in week 14 the Bills were favored by 4.5 .  Rounding out the top five was the Cowboys and Eagles.  In week 10, the Eagles were favored by 7 points then by week 14 the Cowboys were favored by 3.5.  Here is the list of all of the shifts of at least 5:

  1. Jacksonville – Tennessee: 15.5
  2. Atlanta – New Orleans:  14.5
  3. Chicago – Green Bay:  12.0
  4. Buffalo – New York Jets: 11.5
  5. Dallas – Philadelphia: 10.5
  6. Kansas City – LA Chargers: 7
  7. Dallas – Washington: 6
  8. Miami – New York: 6
  9. San Francisco – Seattle: 5.5
  10. Baltimore – Cincinnati: 5.5
  11. Cleveland – Pittsburgh: 5.5
  12. LA Chargers – Oakland: 5.0

I’ll follow up on this when the season ends, and I also want to go back and look at past seasons.

Cheers.

 

NFL Picks – Week 3

Total –  SU: 32-16-0 (66.67%) ATS: 27-20-1 (57.29% +5 Units) O/U: 31-17-0 (64.58% +12.3 Units)

Week 1 – SU: 10-6-0 ATS: 8-8-0 O/U: 13-3-0

Week 2 – SU: 10-6-0 ATS: 10-6-0 O/U: 10-6-0

Week 3 – SU: 12-4-0 ATS: 9-6-1  O/U: 8-8

Tampa Bay at Atlanta

Prediction: Falcons 24-20 (62.5%)

Pick: Buccaneers +6.5 (55.8%)

Total: Under 45

San Francisco at Arizona

Prediction: 49ers 22-20 (55.9%)

Pick: Cardinals +3 (52.7%)

Total: Under 42.5 

San Diego at Buffalo

Prediction: Bills 23-22 (51.8%)

Pick: Chargers +2.5 (55.3%)

Total: Over 44.5

Tennessee at Cincinnati

Prediction: Bengals 24-19 (64.5%)

Pick: Titans +7 (55.1%)

Total: Under 43.5 

Baltimore at Cleveland

Prediction: Ravens 22-21 (53.5%)

Pick: Browns +2 (52.2%) PUSH

Total: Over 42

Green Bay at Detroit

Prediction: Lions 25-24 (53.4%)

Pick: Lions -1 (50.5%)

Total: Under 52.5

Indianapolis at Jacksonville

Prediction: Colts 23-20 (57.4%)

 Pick: Jaguars +7 (62.3%)

Total: Under 45.5 

Kansas City at Miami

Prediction: Dolphins 21-19 (55.9%)

Pick: Chiefs +5 (58.2%)

Total: Under 41.5

Oakland at New England

Prediction: Patriots 29-19 (77.2%)

Pick: Raiders +14.5 (61.5%)

Total: Over 47

Minnesota at New Orleans

Prediction: Saints 27-20 (68.3%)

Pick: Vikings +9.5 (58.0%)

Total: Under 51

Houston at NY Giants

Prediction: Giants 22-21 (51.1%)

Pick: Giants +2.5 (58.2%)

Total: Over 42

Washington at Philadelphia

Prediction: Eagles 25-22 (59.8%)

Pick: Washington Football Team +6.5 (58.6%)

Total: Under 50

Denver at Seattle

Prediction: Seahawks 24-22 (54.6%)

Pick: Broncos +4.5 (58.2%)

Total: Under 49

Dallas at St. Louis

Prediction: Cowboys 23-22 (53.0%)

Pick: Rams +2 (52.7%)

Total: Under 45.5

Pittsburgh at Carolina

Prediction: Panthers 23-20 (59.4%)

Pick: Steelers +3.5 (50.5%)

Total: Over 41.5

Chicago at NY Jets

Prediction: Bears 21-20

Pick: Bears +2.5 (60.1%)

Total: Under 45.5

Week 9 NFL Playoff Probabilities

2013-Week-9-Playoff-Probs

So the Browns beating the Ravens flipped them behind the Browns, but the big moves came in the AFC East where the saw-tooth Jets have almost caught up with Dolphins (the Dolphins, by dint of the remaining schedule, hold the edge, despite trailing by a half-game… I think half-games are a thing in football. I already miss baseball…). Meanwhile the Chargers really shot themselves in the foot, while the Titans beat the lowly Rams, and towed the line. So it is looking like it’s now Jets/Dolphins/Browns/Titans for the sixth AFC playoff spot.

Meanwhile in the NFC, things are interesting, the Saints and Panthers apparently are trying to making a bit of a race of the NFC South. The NFC North is where the accent is really alive, though, with the Packers, Bears and Lions all sitting at 5-3. The Bears have the toughest schedule of the group (only three crappy teams left on their schedule, with the Ravens, Rams and Vikes. The Packers have four (Giants, Vikings, Steelers, and Falcons) and Lions have five crappy  Steelers, Giants, Vikings, Bucs, and Ravens. The Lions are in a virtual tie with the Packers in our formula, but schedule may suggest that’s who has the edge. Only time will tell.

NFL Week 7 Playoff Probablities

2013-Week-7-Playoff-Probs

The Broncos’ loss to the Colts appears caused some changes, though not as much as one might think. The loss allowed the 7-0 Chiefs to take the lead in the AFC West, but only just. Meanwhile, the Colts’ win puts the screws to the the rest of the AFC South. The Cowboys win over the Eagles boosts them quite a ways over the rest of the NFC East, the Bengals can hit cruise control. Thankfully, the NFC North and West exist, otherwise, their would be no drama whatsoever.

NFL Picks – Week 1

Overall Records

SU: (1-0)

ATS: (0-1)

O/U: (1-0)

Week 1 (1-0 SU, 0-1 ATS, 1-0 O/U)

September 5, 2013 – 8:30pm

Baltimore Ravens at Denver Broncos

Prediction: Broncos win 24-23

Pick: Ravens +8.5

OU: Over 47.5

September 8, 2013 – 1pm

New England Patriots at Buffalo Bills

Prediction: Patriots win 38-21

Pick: Patriots -7

OU: Over 51

Tennessee Titans at Pittsburgh Steelers

Prediction: Steelers win 25-17

Pick: Steelers -7

OU: Over 42

Atlanta Falcons at New Orleans Saints

Prediction: Falcons win 30-24

Pick: Falcons +3

OU: Over 53.5

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at New York Jets

Prediction: Buccaneers win 24-20

Pick: Buccaneers -2.5

OU: Over 40.5

Kansas City Chiefs at Jacksonville Jaguars

Prediction: Chiefs win 23-20

Pick: Jaguars +3.5

OU: Over 41

Cincinnati Bengals at Chicago Bears

Prediction: Bears win 21-17

Pick: Bengals +3.5

OU: Under 43.5

Miami Dolphins at Cleveland Browns

Prediction: Dolphins 20-19

Pick: Browns +1.5

OU: Under 41

Seattle Seahawks at Carolina Panthers

Prediction: Seahawks win 26-17

Pick: Seahawks -2.5

OU: Under 45.5

Minnesota Vikings at Detroit Lions

Prediction: Vikings win 27-24

Pick: Vikings +3.5

OU: Over 46

Oakland Raiders at Indianapolis Colts

Prediction: Colts win 27-22

Pick: Raiders +7

OU: over 47.5

September 8, 2013 – 4:25pm

St. Louis Rams at Arizona Cardinals

Rams win 21-16

Pick: Cardinals +6

OU: Under 41.5

Green Bay Packers at San Francisco 49ers

Prediction: 49ers win 26-20

Pick: 49ers -4

OU: Under 48

September 8, 2013 – 8:30pm

New York Giants at Dallas Cowboys

Prediction: Giants win 27-21

Pick: Giants +2.5

OU: Over 47.5

September 9, 2013 – 7:10pm

Philadelphia Eagles at Washington Redskins

Prediction: Redskins win 31-21

Pick: Redskins -4.5

OU: Over 47.5

September 9, 2013 – 10:20pm

Houston Texans at San Diego Chargers

Prediction: Texans win 25-19

Pick: Texans -3

OU: Over 44.5

2013 NFL Preview

Projected Record

Team – (Median wins) expected wins

AFC East

New England – (11-5) 10.588

Miami – (8-8) 7.57

NY Jets (7-9) 6.843

Buffalo – (7-9) 6.634

AFC North

Baltimore (9-7) 8.816

Cincinnati – (8-8) 8.179

Pittsburgh – (8-8) 8.135

Cleveland – (7-9) 7.282

AFC South

Houston (9-7) 9.448

Indianapolis – (8-8) 7.698

Tennessee (6-10) 6.226

Jacksonville (6-10) 5.814

AFC West

Denver – (10-6) 10.082

San Diego – (8-8) 7.864

Kansas City – (7-9) 6.655

Oakland – (6-10) 6.33

NFC East

NY Giants (9-7) 9.238

Washington (9-7) 8.772

Dallas (8-8) 7.771

Philadelphia (6-10) 6.367

NFC North

Chicago (9-7) 8.978

Green Bay (8-8) 8.439

Minnesota (8-8) 8.078

Detroit (7-9) 7.365

NFC South

Atlanta (9-7) 9.205

Carolina (8-8) 7.820

New Orleans (8-8) 7.677

Tampa Bay (7-9) 7.516

NFC West

San Francisco (10-6) 10.150

Seattle (10-6) 10.071

St. Louis (8-8) 7.735

Arizona (7-9) 6.612

Projected Playoffs

AFC

1. New England

2. Denver

3. Houston

4. Baltimore

5. Cincinnati

6. Pittsburgh

NFC

1. San Francisco

2. NY Giants

3. Atlanta

4. Chicago

5. Seattle

6. Washington

Projected Wild Card Round

AFC

Houston beats Pittsburgh 23-19

Baltimore beats Cincinnati 23-20

NFC

Atlanta beats Washington 27-24

Seattle beats Chicago 21-17

Projected Divisional Round

AFC

New England beats Baltimore 31-26

Denver beats Houston 24-23

NFC

San Francisco beats Seattle 21-20

Atlanta beats NY Giants 24-22

Projected Conference Round

AFC

New England beats Denver 30-26

NFC

San Francisco beats Atlanta 24-21

Super Bowl

AFC

New England beats San Francisco 28-27

 

 

 

NFL Rankings – 10/23/2012

StatsInTheWild NFL rankings as of October 23, 2012 at 12:34pm.  SOS=strength of schedule

Team Rank Change Record ESPN TeamRankings.com SOS Points Diff
Chicago 1 5-1 5 1 8 +84
Houston 2 ↑2 6-1 2 (tie) 3 17 +88
San Francisco 3 ↓1 5-2 4 5 4 +65
Green Bay 4 ↑6 4-3 7 4 6 +29
Minnesota 5 ↑3 5-2 9 8 7 +36
Atlanta 6 ↓3 6-0 1 2 26 +58
NY Giants 7 ↓2 5-2 2 (tie) 6 22 +68
New England 8 ↑1 4-3 8 7 12 +54
Seattle 9 ↓2 4-3 11 10 5 +10
Arizona 10 ↓4 4-3 14 20 2 +6
St. Louis 11 ↑1 3-4 21 15 3 -11
Baltimore 12 ↓1 5-2 6 11 24 +13
Detroit 13 ↑1 2-4 19 12 1 -17
Miami 14 ↑1 3-3 16 17 14 +3
Denver 15 ↑1 3-3 12 9 30 +32
Washington 16 ↓3 3-4 18 18 18 +1
Dallas 17 ↑1 3-3 15 13 15 -20
NY Jets 18 ↓1 3-4 24 14 11 -11
Pittsburgh 19 ↑5 3-3 10 16 29 +8
Philadelphia 20 3-3 13 22 19 -22
Tampa Bay 21 ↓2 2-4 26 31 23 +12
Indianapolis 22 ↑5 3-3 23 21 16 -41
San Diego 23 3-3 17 23 32 +11
New Orleans 24 ↑2 2-4 20 26 21 -6
Buffalo 25 ↓2 3-4 27 24 13 -56
Cincinnati 26 ↓5 3-4 22 27 27 -21
Tennessee 27 ↑3 3-4 25 19 9 -89
Carolina 28 ↓3 1-5 29 29 20 -38
Jacksonville 29 ↓1 1-5 31 30 10 -76
Cleveland 30 ↓1 1-6 30 28 25 -33
Oakland 31 2-4 28 25 31 -58
Kansas City 32 1-5 32 32 28 -79

Best

Best team in the league: Chicago

Best undefeated team: Atlanta

Best 5 win team: Chicago

Best 4 win team: Green Bay

Best 3 win team: St. Louis

Best 2 win team: Detroit

Best 1 win team: Carolina

Worst

Worst 5 win team: Baltimore

Worst 4 win team: Arizona

Worst 3 win team: Tennessee

Worst 2 win team: Oakland

Worst 1 win team: Kansas City

Worst team in the league: Kansas City

Most

Most under-rated team: (#11) St. Louis (ESPN has them 21)

Most over-rated team: (#19) Pittsburgh (ESPN has them 10)

Cheers.

↓3

NFL Predictions – Week 7

Overall Records for 2012

SU: 64-40

ATS: 57-47

O/U: 56-46

Week 7 (11-2 SU, 6-7 ATS, 6-7 O/U)

Week 6 (6-8 SU, 7-7 ATS, 6-7 O/U)

Week 5 (10-4 SU, 7-7 ATS, 7-7 O/U)

Week 4 (10-5 SU, 10-5 ATS, 12-2 O/U)

Week 3 (5-11 SU, 9-7 ATS, 9-7 O/U)

Week 2 (11-5 SU, 9-7 ATS, 8-8 O/U)

Week 1 (11-5 SU, 9-7 ATS, 8-8 O/U)

Week 7

Thursday @8:05pm

Seattle Seahawks at San Francisco 49ers

Prediction: 49ers win 28-20

Pick: 49ers -7.5

O/U: Over 37.5

Sunday @1pm

Tennessee Titans at Buffalo Bills

Prediction: Bills win 23-22

Pick: Titans +3.5

O/U: Under 45.5

Arizona Cardinals at Minnesota Vikings

Prediction: Vikings win 25-23

Pick: Cardinals +5.5

O/U:  Over 40.5

Cleveland Browns at Indianapolis Colts

Prediction: Colts win 23-17

Pick: Colts -3

O/U: Under 44.5

Baltimore Ravens at Houston Texans

Prediction: Ravens win 26-24

Pick: Ravens +6.5

O/U: Over 48

Green Bay Packers at St. Louis Rams

Prediction: Packers win 30-17

Pick: Packers -5.5

O/U: Over 45

Dallas Cowboys at Carolina Panthers

Prediction: Cowboys win 25-21

Pick:  Cowboys -2

O/U: Over 45.5

Washington Redskins at New York Giants

Prediction: Giants win 28-22

Pick: Redskins +6.5

O/U: Over 49.5

New Orleans Saints at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Prediction: Saints win 32-20

Pick: Saints -2.5

O/U: Over 49

Sunday @4:25pm

New York Jets at New England Patriots

Prediction: Patriots win 35-20

Pick: Patriots -10.5

O/U: Over 47

Sunday @4:25pm

Jacksonville Jaguars at Oakland Raiders

Prediction: Raiders win 21-16

Pick: Raiders -4

O/U: Under 43

Sunday @8:30pm

Pittsburgh Steelers at Cincinnati Bengals

Prediction: Steelers win 24-23

Pick: Bengals +2.5

O/U: Over 46

Monday @8:40pm

Detroit Lions at Chicago Bears

Prediction: Bears win 28-26

Pick: Lions +5.5

O/U: Over 47.5

Cheers.

NFL Rankings – 10/17/2012

StatsInTheWild NFL rankings as of October 17, 2012 at 12:34pm.  SOS=strength of schedule

Team Rank Change Record ESPN TeamRankings.com SOS Points Diff
Chicago 1 ↑1 4-1 6 1 8 +78
San Francisco 2 ↓1 4-2 5 6 3 +58
Atlanta 3 ↑4 6-0 1 2 25 +58
Houston 4 ↓1 5-1 2 4 21 +58
NY Giants 5 ↑7 4-2 3 3 17 +64
Arizona 6 ↓1 4-2 11 12 1 +13
Seattle 7 ↑2 4-2 9 5 5 +17
Minnesota 8 ↓4 4-2 10 11 7 +29
New England 9 ↓3 3-3 7 8 10 +51
Green Bay 10 ↑1 3-3 8 7 6 +19
Baltimore 11 ↓1 5-1 4 9 26 +43
St. Louis 12 ↓4 3-3 20 10 2 -1
Washington 13 ↑9 3-3 15 17 13 +5
Detroit 14 ↓1 2-3 19 19 4 -11
Miami 15 ↓1 3-3 17 14 16 +3
Denver 16 ↑2 3-3 12 13 31 +32
NY Jets 17 3-3 23 18 12 -8
Dallas 18 ↓2 2-3 18 15 9 -25
Tampa Bay 19 ↑6 2-3 22 24 23 +19
Philadelphia 20 3-3 13 20 11 -22
Cincinnati 21 ↓2 3-3 21 21 28 -14
Buffalo 22 ↑2 3-3 25 16 15 -55
San Diego 23 ↓2 3-3 16 27 32 +11
Pittsburgh 24 ↓1 2-3 14 23 27 +1
Carolina 25 ↑3 1-4 28 28 19 -33
New Orleans 26 ↑1 1-4 24 31 20 -13
Indianapolis 27 ↓12 2-3 26 22 22 -45
Jacksonville 28 ↓2 1-4 31 29 18 -73
Cleveland 29 ↑3 1-5 30 26 24 -29
Tennessee 30 ↓1 2-4 27 25 14 -90
Oakland 31 ↓1 1-4 29 30 30 -61
Kansas City 32 ↓1 1-5 32 32 29 -79

Best

Best undefeated team: Atlanta

Best 5 win team: Houston

Best 4 win team: Chicago

Best 3 win team: New England

Best 2 win team: Detroit

Best 1 win team: Carolina

Worst

Worst 5 win team: Baltimore

Worst 4 win team: Minnesota

Worst 3 win team: San Diego

Worst 2 win team: Tennessee

Worst 1 win team: Kansas City

Worst team in the league: Kansas City

Most

Most under-rated team: (#12) St. Louis (ESPN has them 20)

Most over-rated team: (#24) Pittsburgh (ESPN has them 14)

Cheers.

NFL Graph Theory

So far this year:

New England beat Tennessee; Tennessee beat Detroit; Detroit beat Philadelphia, Philadelphia beat the NY Giants; the Giants beat Carolina; Carolina beat New Orleans; New Orleans beat San Diego; San Diego beat Oakland; Oakland beat Pittsburgh; Pittsburgh beat the NY Jets beat Indianapolis; Indianapolis beat Minnesota; Minnesota beat San Francisco; SAn Francisco beat Green Bay; Green Bay beat Chicago; Chicago beat St. Louis; and St. Louis beat Arizona; who beat the Patriots.

Here’s a directed graph of the entire NFL so far this year with the cycle I described about highlighted in think black edges.  Node size is proportional to the number of team wins, and the colored groups are the divisions.

Cheers.

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