Category Archives: Uncategorized

BCS: Why bother with the computers?

The BCS is either unbelievably brilliant or completely idiotic.  They use computer rankings to legitimize themselves, while at the same time, completely ignoring the computer rankings.

Louisiana Tech is a perfect example of this.  Currently, Louisiana Tech is 25th in the BCS standings in spite of the fact that exactly ZERO computer polls have them in the top 25.  They crack the BCS standings by coming in at 23 and 24 in the USA Today and Harris polls, respectively.  The polls outweigh the computers in such a way that they practically don’t matter.

Another good example of this is Florida State who currently sits at 9 in the BCS rankings.  Five of the six rankings have the Seminoles in the top 25 with ranks of 12, 18, 21, 22, and 25, while Sagarin leaves them out entirely.  Their average computer rank is 21.  In both polls, however, they are currently ranked 7th.  And thanks to the way the BCS performs the weighting the average of 7, 7, and 21 is 9. That’s BCS math for you.

The weighting for the BCS is one-third each for the two polls and one-third for the computer rankings.  However, if you look at the top 13 in both BCS polls, they are exactly the same.  This has the effect of essentially using only one poll but giving it two-thirds weight and giving the computers only one-third.  Voters can simply get together and vote in such a way that renders the computers meaningless.  Only one of the six computer rankings, Richard Billingsley, has Alabama ranked number 1, and yet they are nearly a unanimous number one in the voting.  Some more solid BCS math for you.

Whoever set up the BCS either had no idea what they were doing, tried to set-up a fair, rational system of ranking incorporating human voters and computers, and failed spectacularly, or knew exactly what they were doing, incorporated computers to make themselves look legitimate, and was wildly successful in maintaining the status quo.  Sometimes it’s hard to tell the difference between genius and insanity.

Cheers.

RIPPEN after week 8

An explanation of RIPPEN

Alex Smith’s performance on Monday night was the best performance by a quarterback in any game this season with a RIPPEN of 57.977. The next closest performance was Aaron Rodgers in week 7 with a RIPPEN of 43.235.

Smith’s incredible performance on Monday night wasn’t perfect though according to passer rating.  He only charted a 157.1, which is, of course, absolutely ridiculous.  Take a look at the list of games where the QB has ended with a perfect rating and try to tell me with a straight face that Alex Smith’s Monday night performance was worse than all of these.  For instance, in 2005 Roethlisberger finished a game 9 for 11 with 232 passing yards and 2 TD and a perfect passer rating.  How in the world can that be better than Alex Smith’s 18 for 19 performance for 232 yards and three touchdowns?  It’s because passer rating is terrible.

RIPPEN rankings for week 8 performances:

Player Team RIPPEN QB rating
Smith, A.  SF 57.977 157.1
Manning, P. DEN 32.232 138.9
Ryan, M. ATL 30.023 137.4
Brady, T. NE 26.385 131.1
Roethlisberger, B. PIT 24.045 121.0
Stafford, M. DET 23.692 101.7
Luck, A. IND 21.747 89.5
Wilson, R. SEA 19.716 96.8
Cutler, J. CHI 18.324 83.3
Freeman, J. TB 17.853 104.2
Newton, C. CAR 17.054 57.0
Ponder, C. MIN 16.026 74.8
Bradford, S. STL 16.004 88.9
Cassel, M. KC 14.130 85.1
Gabbert, B. JAX 13.057 80.6
Manning, E. NYG 12.378 58.4
Rodgers, A. GB 12.331 95.7
Romo, T. DAL 12.222 58.3
Palmer, C. OAK 10.750 83.8
Vick, M. PHI 10.046 84.3
Griffin, III, R. WAS 9.623 72.8
Sanchez, M NYJ 8.801 65.6
Skelton, J. ARI 8.159 68.6
Brees, D. NO 8.158 72.8
Weeden, B. CLE 7.906 55.9
Tannehill, R. MIA 3.299 50.4
Rivers, P. SD 2.015 65.1

Season RIPPEN rankings through 8 weeks of games:

Player Team RIPPEN QB rating
Manning, P. DEN 30.093 109.0
Rodgers, A. GB 24.579 107.9
Brady, T. NE 23.768 100.6
Griffin, III, R. WAS 23.374 97.3
Smith, A. SF 22.617 102.1
Ryan, M. ATL 22.566 103.0
Schaub, M. HOU 22.415 93.1
Newton, C. CAR 21.982 75.2
Roethlisberger, B. PIT 20.834 101.4
Brees, D. NO 18.954 93.0
Freeman, J. TB 18.242 93.3
Manning, E. NYG 17.580 89.1
Bradford, S. STL 17.485 82.4
Locker, J. TEN 17.147 90.2
Romo, T. DAL 16.548 78.8
Stafford, M. DET 16.317 82.1
Tannehill, R. MIA 16.205 75.8
Ponder, C. MIN 16.113 85.8
Cutler, J. DEN 15.904 78.9
Dalton, A. CIN 15.372 87.7
Luck, A. IND 14.992 74.6
Vick, M. PHI 14.703 78.6
Wilson, R. SEA 14.229 82.4
Palmer, C. OAK 14.062 85.7
Flacco, J. BAL 13.770 84.0
Rivers, P. SD 13.328 82.4
Fitzpatrick, R. BUF 12.039 86.1
Weeden, B. CLE 11.485 70.8
Sanchez, M. NYJ 11.484 72.8
Cassel, M. KC 10.430 69.0
Kolb, K. ARI 9.662 86.1
Gabbert, B. JAX 8.943 77.9
Skelton, J. ARI 8.363 64.5
Hasselbeck, M. TEN 8.039 83.3

 

Cheers.

Historical Tropical Storm Tracks

Google’s Viz of Hurricane Sandy

 

 

 

Google has a great visualization of Hurricane Sandy

Cheers.

 

NCAA Football Rankings – 10/28/2012

 
Rank Team Record
1 ALABAMA 8-0
2 OREGON 8-0
3 KANSAS STATE 8-0
4 NOTRE DAME 8-0
5 OKLAHOMA 5-2
6 FLORIDA 7-1
7 OREGON STATE 6-1
8 LSU 7-1
9 OHIO STATE 9-0
10 TEXAS A&M 6-2
11 STANFORD 6-2
12 FLORIDA STATE 8-1
13 OKLAHOMA STATE 5-2
14 TEXAS TECH 6-2
15 ARIZONA 5-3
16 USC 6-2
17 SO CAROLINA 7-2
18 TEXAS 6-2
19 GEORGIA 7-1
20 MISS STATE 7-1
21 IOWA STATE 5-3
22 CLEMSON 7-1
23 ARIZONA STATE 5-3
24 TCU 5-3
25 NEBRASKA 6-2

Full Rankings

Week 7 QB performances reviewed via RIPPEN

An explanation of RIPPEN

RIPPEN rankings for week 7 performances:

Player Team RIPPEN QB rating
Rodgers, A. GB 43.235 106.9
Brees, D. NO 36.220 129.0
Gabbert, B. JAX 34.483 133.8
Freeman, J. TB 25.252 124.7
Schaub, M. HOU 22.707 102.2
Griffin, III, R. WAS 21.789 133.7
Romo, T. DAL 21.277 97.2
Roethlisberger, B. PIT 20.522 91.3
Manning, E. NYG 20.269 87.8
Bradford, S. STL 19.503 112.0
Fitzpatrick, R. BUF 19.106 97.1
Brady, T. NE 17.217 87.4
Sanchez, M. NYJ 16.431 92.7
Luck, A. IND 16.258 79.3
Skelton, J. ARI 13.082 83.2
Smith, A. SF 12.449 56.6
Wilson, R. SEA 7.166 87.3
Palmer, C. OAK 6.411 69.8
Henne, C. JAX 2.510 75.0
Dalton, A. CIN 2.503 77.4
Flacco, J BAL 1.790 59.4
Ponder, C. MIN 0.705 68.9

Season RIPPEN rankings through 7 weeks of games:

Player Team RIPPEN QB rating
Manning, P. DEN 28.886 105.0
Rodgers, A. GB 26.970 109.6
Griffen, III, R. WAS 26.915 101.8
Newton, C. CAR 24.975 79.3
Brady, T. NE 23.842 96.9
Ryan. M. ATL 21.828 98.8
Schaub, M. HOU 21.496 93.1
Brees, D. NO 21.221 96.1
Roethlisberger, B. PIT 21.141 98.6
Freeman, J. TB 18.409 91.2
Romo, T. DAL 18.197 84.6
Manning, E. NYG 18.150 92.5
Smith, A. SF 17.786 93.9
Locker, J. TEN 17.197 90.2
Bradford, S. STL 17.192 81.5
Ponder, C. MIN 16.677 87.5
Cutler, J. CHI 16.631 78.3
Tannehill, R. MIA 16.344 76.5
Dalton, A. CIN 15.387 87.7
Rivers, P. SD 15.290 85.3
Stafford, M. DET 15.259 78.4
Vick, M. PHI 14.984 77.7
Luck, A. IND 14.880 72.3
Palmer, C. OAK 14.846 86.0
Wilson, R. SEA 13.782 79.5
Flacco, J. BAL 13.018 84.0
Sanchez, M. NYJ 11.985 74.6
Fitzpatrick, R. BUF 11.984 86.1
Weeden, B. CLE 11.671 72.3
Kolb, K. ARI 9.443 86.1
Skelton, J. ARI 8.876 68.9
Cassel, M. KC 8.209 66.2
Gabbert, B. JAX 8.194 77.1
Hasselbeck, M. TEN 7.748 78.2

Cheers.

NFL Predictions – Week 8

Overall Records for 2012

SU: 73-45 (61.86%)

ATS: 66-52 (55.93%)

O/U: 65-50 (56.52%)

Week 8 (10-4 SU, 9-5 ATS, 9-4 O/U)

Week 7 (10-3 SU, 6-7 ATS, 6-7 O/U)

Week 6 (6-8 SU, 7-7 ATS, 6-7 O/U)

Week 5 (10-4 SU, 7-7 ATS, 7-7 O/U)

Week 4 (10-5 SU, 10-5 ATS, 12-2 O/U)

Week 3 (5-11 SU, 9-7 ATS, 9-7 O/U)

Week 2 (11-5 SU, 9-7 ATS, 8-8 O/U)

Week 1 (11-5 SU, 9-7 ATS, 8-8 O/U)

Week 8

Thursday @8:25pm

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Minnesota Vikings

Prediction: Vikings win 25-22

Pick: Buccaneers +6.5

O/U: Over 42.5

Sunday @1pm

New England Patriots at St. Louis Rams (London)

Prediction: Patriots win 32-17

Pick: Patriots -7

O/U: Over 47

Indianapolis Colts at Tennessee Titans

Prediction: Titans win 21-20

Pick: Colts +3.5

O/U: Under 46.5

Jacksonville Jaguars at Green Bay Packers

Prediction: Packers win 29-14

Pick: Packers -13.5

O/U: Off the Board

San Diego Chargers at Cleveland Browns

Prediction: Chargers win 27-19

Pick: Chargers -3.5

O/U: Over 44.5

Atlanta Falcons at Philadelphia Eagles

Prediction: Falcons win 27-25

Pick: Falcons +2.5

O/U: Over 46.5

Seattle Seahawks at Detroit Lions

Prediction: Lions win 28-21

Pick:  Lions -2.5

O/U: Over 43.5

Miami Dolphins at New York Jets

Prediction: Dolphins win 22-21

Pick: Dolphins +2.5

O/U: Over 40.5

Carolina Panthers at Chicago Bears

Prediction: Bears win 27-24

Pick: Panthers +8

O/U: Over 43

Sunday @4:05pm

Washington Redskins at Pittsburgh Steelers

Prediction: Steelers win 24-21

Pick: Redskins +5.5

O/U: Under 47.5

Sunday @4:25pm

Oakland Raiders at Kansas City Chiefs

Prediction: Raiders win 24-23

Pick: Raiders +2

O/U: Over 41

Sunday @8:30pm

New York Giants at Dallas Cowboys

Prediction: Giants win 26-24

Pick: Giants -1.5

O/U: Over 47

Sunday @8:30pm

New Orleans Saints at Denver Broncos

Prediction: Saints win 33-24

Pick: Saints +6.5

O/U: Over 54.5

Monday @8:40pm

San Francisco 49ers at Arizona Cardinals

Prediction: 49ers win 24-20

Pick: Cardinals +7.5

O/U: Over 36.5

Cheers.

NCAA Football Rankings – 10/21/2012

 
 Rank Team Records
1 KANSAS STATE 7-0
2 ALABAMA 7-0
3 OKLAHOMA 5-1
4 OREGON 7-0
5 FLORIDA 7-0
6 TEXAS TECH 6-1
7 NOTRE DAME 7-0
8 OREGON STATE 6-0
9 LSU 7-1
10 MISS STATE 7-0
11 TEXAS 5-2
12 TEXAS A&M 5-2
13 STANFORD 5-2
14 USC 6-1
15 OKLAHOMA STATE 4-2
16 FLORIDA STATE 7-1
17 OHIO STATE 8-0
18 TCU 5-2
19 SO CAROLINA 6-2
20 ARIZONA 4-3
21 IOWA STATE 4-3
22 WEST VIRGINIA 5-2
23 RUTGERS 7-0
24 ARIZONA STATE 5-2
25 GEORGIA 6-1
26 WISCONSIN 6-2
27 CLEMSON 6-1
28 MICHIGAN 5-2
29 PENN STATE 5-2
30 LOUISVILLE 7-0
31 BAYLOR 3-3
32 UCLA 5-2
33 OLE MISS 4-3
34 LOUISIANA TECH 6-1
35 NEBRASKA 5-2
36 NORTHWESTERN 6-2
37 ARKANSAS 3-4
38 CINCINNATI 5-1
39 UTAH STATE 6-2
40 NEVADA 6-2
41 CALIFORNIA 3-5
42 BOISE STATE 6-1
43 NORTH CAROLINA 5-3
44 FRESNO STATE 5-3
45 MICHIGAN STATE 4-4
46 TOLEDO 7-1
47 ULM 5-2
48 TULSA 7-1
49 NORTHERN ILL 7-1
50 TENNESSEE 3-4
51 IOWA 4-3
52 DUKE 6-2
53 BYU 4-4
54 WASHINGTON 3-4
55 MISSOURI 3-4
56 WESTERN KY 5-2
57 SAN JOSE ST 5-2
58 OHIO U 7-0
59 MIAMI-FLORIDA 4-4
60 MARYLAND 4-3
61 VIRGINIA TECH 4-4
62 SYRACUSE 3-4
63 NC STATE 5-2
64 PITTSBURGH 3-4
65 LOUISIANA 4-2
66 PURDUE 3-4
67 UCF 5-2
68 KANSAS 1-6
69 MIDDLE TENNESSEE 4-3
70 SAN DIEGO ST 5-3
71 VANDERBILT 3-4
72 WAKE FOREST 4-3
73 KENT STATE 6-1
74 MINNESOTA 4-3
75 GEORGIA TECH 3-4
76 UTAH 2-5
77 KENTUCKY 1-7
78 NEW MEXICO 4-4
79 TEMPLE 3-3
80 TROY 4-3
81 BALL STATE 5-3
82 AUBURN 1-6
83 TEXAS STATE 3-3
84 NAVY 4-3
85 WASHINGTON ST 2-5
86 SMU 3-4
87 ARKANSAS STATE 4-3
88 AIR FORCE 4-3
89 INDIANA 2-5
90 SO FLORIDA 2-5
91 BOWLING GREEN 5-3
92 NORTH TEXAS 3-4
93 EAST CAROLINA 5-3
94 ILLINOIS 2-5
95 HOUSTON 3-4
96 CONNECTICUT 3-5
97 MARSHALL 3-4
98 WYOMING 1-6
99 COLORADO 1-6
100 VIRGINIA 2-6
101 BOSTON COLLEGE 1-6
102 TX-SAN ANTONIO 5-2
103 UNLV 1-7
104 TEXAS-EL PASO 2-6
105 WESTERN MICH 3-5
106 RICE 2-6
107 MIAMI-OHIO 3-4
108 SOUTH ALABAMA 2-5
109 FLA ATLANTIC 1-6
110 EASTERN MICH 1-6
111 COLORADO STATE 1-6
112 ARMY 1-6
113 FIU 1-7
114 IDAHO 1-7
115 HAWAII 1-5
116 TULANE 1-6
117 UAB 1-6
118 CENTRAL MICH 2-5
119 BUFFALO 1-6
120 MEMPHIS 1-6
121 SOUTHERN MISS 0-7
122 NEW MEXICO ST 1-6
123 AKRON 1-7
124 MASSACHUSETTS 0-7

 

Week 6 QB performances reviewed via RIPPEN

An explanation of RIPPEN

RIPPEN rankings for week 6 performances:

Player Team RIPPEN QB rating
Flacco, J. BAL 38.201 106.9
Manning, P. DEN 34.475 129.0
Rodgers, A. GB 33.463 133.8
Freeman, J. TB 33.324 124.7
Palmer, C. OAK 33.153 102.2
Wilson, R. SEA 30.824 133.7
Griffin, III, R. WAS 26.015 97.2
Bradford, S. STL 25.218 91.3
Roethlisberger, B. PIT 24.023 87.8
Tannehill, R. MIA 21.243 112.0
Romo, T. DAL 20.028 97.1
Manning, E. NYG 20.927 87.4
Weeden, B. CLE 18.161 92.7
Brady, T. NE 16.272 79.3
Ponder, C. MIN 15.649 83.2
Schaub, M. HOU 14.815 56.6
Dalton, A. CIN 14.458 87.3
Stafford, M. DET 13.478 69.8
Vick, M. PHI 13.471 77.4
Ryan, M. ATL 11.480 59.4
Fitzpatrick, R. BUF 11.166 68.9
Hasselbeck, M. TEN 10.428 75.0
Luck, A. IND 9.097 51.3
Sanchez, M. NYJ 9.089 109.0
Smith, A. SF 9.038 43.1
Rivers, P. SD 5.959 54.2
Kolb, K. ARI 5.757 64.3
Quinn, B. KC 5.571 48.1
Skelton, J. ARI 3.812 6.2

Season RIPPEN rankings through six weeks of games:

Player Team RIPPEN QB rating
Manning, P. DEN 27.304 105.0
Griffin, III, R. WAS 27.279 100.5
Brady, T. NE 26.905 97.2
Newton, C. CAR 25.630 80.9
Rodgers, A. GB 24.263 105.4
Schaub, M. HOU 23.978 91.6
Ryan, M. ATL 23.689 98.8
Roethlisberger, B. PIT 20.393 99.9
Rivers, P. SD 19.697 85.3
Flacco, J. BAL 19.654 92.0
Smith, A. SF 19.131 96.6
Ponder, C. MIN 19.091 92.4
Cutler, J. CHI 18.720 78.7
Brees, D. NO 18.243 90.7
Manning, E. NYG 17.664 94.9
Palmer, C. OAK 16.843 88.7
Dalton, A. CIN 16.770 91.7
Romo, T. DAL 16.380 82.1
Locker, J. TEN 16.245 90.2
Stafford, M. DET 15.928 79.2
Freeman, J. TB 15.780 84.2
Tannehill, R. MIA 14.544 76.5
Bradford, S. STL 13.065 81.3
Vick, M. PHI 12.533 77.7
Wilson, R. SEA 11.917 85.6
Luck, A. IND 10.782 72.0
Sanchez, M. NYJ 10.761 70.9
Fitzpatrick, R. BUF 10.465 81.5
Weeden, B. CLE 10.417 68.1
Kolb, K. ARI 8.357 86.1
Cassel, M. KC 6.678 66.2
Hasselbeck, M. TEN 6.678 74.1
Gabbert, B. JAX 6.678 73.3

Cheers.

R at 12000 cores

From this article:

We have done, for example, principal components analyses via singular value decomposition with matrices as large as 100,000×100,000 in under an hour.

Wow.