• Below is the opening paragraph of the article Mindless Statistics by Gerd Gigerenzer (The bold was added by me):

    I once visited a distinguished statistical textbook author, whose book went through many editions, and whose name does not matter. His textbook represents the relative best in the social sciences. He was not a statistician; otherwise, his text would likely not have been used in a psychology class. In an earlier edition, he had included a chapter on Bayesian statistics, and also mentioned (albeit in only one sentence) that there was a development in statistical theory from R.A. Fisher to Jerzy-Neyman and Egon S. Pearson. To mention the existence of alternative methods and the names associated with them is virtually unheard of in psychology. I asked the author why he removed the chapter on Bayes as well as the innocent sentence from all subsequent editions. “What made you present statistics as if it had only a single hammer, rather than a toolbox? Why did you mix Fisher’s and Neyman–Pearson’s theories into an inconsistent hybrid that every decent statistician would reject?”

    To his credit, I should say that the author did not attempt to deny that he had produced the illusion that there is only one tool. But he let me know who was to blame for this. There were three culprits: his fellow researchers, the university  administration, and his publisher. Most researchers, he argued, are not really interested in statistical thinking, but only in how to get their papers published. The administration at his university promoted researchers according to the number of their publications, which reinforced the researchers’ attitude. And he passed on the responsibility to his publisher, who demanded a single-recipe cookbook. No controversies, please. His publisher had forced him to take out the chapter on Bayes as well as the sentence that named alternative theories, he explained. At the end of our conversation, I asked him what kind of statistical theory he himself believed in. “Deep in my heart,” he confessed, “I am a Bayesian.”

    If the author was telling me the truth, he had sold his heart for multiple editions of a famous book whose message he did not believe in. He had sacrificed his intellectual integrity for  success. Ten thousands of students have read his text, believing that it reveals the method of science. Dozens of less informed textbook writers copied from his text, churning out a flood of offspring textbooks, and not noticing the mess.

    Cheers.

  • Rankings as of 11:05am on 2/6/2012.  Sagarin Ratings for games though 2/5/2012.  AP Poll as of 1/30/2012. (It’s 11:11 am on Monday and the AP poll isn’t out yet.  What takes these guys so long?)

    Previous rankings are here.

    Two new teams this week: Murray St. and New Mexico.   Murray St. is in the SITW top 25 for the first time this season, whereas New Mexico has been bouncing in and out all season.  Murray St. finally gets into the top 25 at 23-0.  It takes a lot to crack the top 25 when you’re playing in the Ohio Valley Conference.

    Vanderbilt and Gonzaga drop out of the top 25.  Vanderbilt falls out after losing both of it’s games this week (at Arkansas and at Florida) and Gonzaga drops out after a loss to BYU.

    (Note: The Missouri Valley Conference will now be represented by red.  In order for the Pac-12 to earn back their color, they will need to get a team in the top 25 and have all the MVC teams fall out of the top 25.  Until that happens, Pac-12 teams will be listed in the “other” category.)

    Breakdown by conference: 3, 4, 6, 3, 0, 2, 3, 2, 2

    ACC Big East Big Ten Big 12 Pac 12 SEC MWC MVC Other

    Team Rank Change Record AP Sagarin
    Syracuse 1 – 23-1 2 3
    Baylor 2 ↑1 21-2 6 9
    Kentucky 3 ↑1 23-1 1 2
    Ohio St. 4 ↓2 20-3 3 1
    Duke 5 – 19-4 7 11
    Missouri 6 ↑2 21-2 4 5
    Michigan St.  7 ↓1 18-5 9 6
    North Carolina 8 ↑5 20-3 5 7
    Creighton 9 ↓2 21-3 13 17
    Kansas 10 – 18-5 8 4
    Marquette 11 ↓2 19-5 15 16
    Georgetown 12 ↑6 18-4 14 13
    Wisconsin 13 ↓2 18-6 19 8
    San Diego St.  14 ↑2 20-3 17  47
    Indiana 15 ↓3 18-6 20 10
    St. Mary’s-CA 16 ↓1 22-2 18 21
    Florida 17 ↑6 19-4 12 12
    UNLV 18 ↓4 21-4 11 14
    Wichita St. 19 ↑2 20-4 30 15
    Louisville 20 ↓1 18-5 27 24
    Michigan 21 ↓4 17-7 23 29
    Illinois 22 ↓2 16-7 38 44
    Virginia 23 ↓1 18-4 16  22
    Murray St. 24 NR 23-0 10 45
    New Mexico 25 NR 19-4 NR  18

    26-35: Southern Miss, Mississippi St., Gonzaga, Florida St., UConn, Vanderbilt, Iowa St., Alabama, Temple, Minnesota

    BCS: My offer still stands…….if you want to contact me you can send me a tweet @StatsInTheWild.

    Cheers.

  • I just came across the article “A Statistician Shares How To Pick Your Super Bowl Pool Like A Champ” at businessinsider.com.  The author of the article, Jill Krasny, asked edgehogs.com statistician, William Briggs, for some advice:

    “You want to pick the scores that are most likely to happen, and look at historical information about how score differentials (i.e., pairings) are most realized,” Briggs said. “You shouldn’t pick squares out of the blue that happen infrequently.”

    Then she offers this note:

    Note: Some people pick the labels on the rows and columns only after all the boxes have been bought, making the game more random. If your office does it this way, and not all do, these statistics will still help you figure your chance of winning.

    I would argue that a fundamental rule of the Super Bowl squares game is that you pick a square BEFORE the numbers have been placed on the grid.  Instead of saying “Some people” in her note, she should say “Almost all people.”  (Am I wrong about this?  I’ve never, ever seen the numbers on the board before the squares are filled in.)

    The article is still of some use, though, as you get some idea of what your chances of winning are after you get your numbers.  Of course, the whole premise that the article was written on (you get to choose your numbers) is almost never true.

    Finally, they looked at the last 2,822 NFL games, but if you’re interested in complete results for over 14,000 games in a pretty heat map grid format, I’ve compiled that here.

    Go Pats.

    Cheers.

     

  • Here is an article I wrote for Significance Magazine about Tom Brady and the Super Bowl called “A Tale of Two Bradys: It was the best of his games; it was the worst of his games.”

    Go Pats.

    Cheers.

     

  • I received an email this morning from a friend: “Is there any sort of a statistical breakdown for which are the best numbers to have in a Super Bowl squares pool (for entertainment purposes only)?”

    Now, if my friend were going to use this information to gamble, it would be highly unethical.  However, since he clearly stated that it was for “entertainment purposes only,” I feel that I can conduct a study with a clear conscience.

    If he had wanted to gamble on it, here is a quick explanation of how that usually takes place.  (According to that website: “Basically, if you are at a party where you don’t have betting squares you are a Communist.”)

    Anyway, using data from football-reference.com I created a ten by ten frequency table (using R, of course) of exactly how many times each outcome has occurred in the history of the NFL.  You can find the graph here.

    Somethings to note:

    • 2-2 is the worst square by far.  It’s only happened 5 times in the history of the league.  The fair odds for this square are over 2800-to-1.
    • The best squares are, no surprise, 7-0 and 0-7, occurring 581 and 577 times, respectively.
    • The other great squares to have are in order, 0-3, 0-4, 4-7, and 7-4.  All of these have occurred over 480 times each.
    • These 6 outcomes (7-0, 0-7, 0-3, 0-4, 4-7, and 7-4) account for almost 23% of all the NFL games ever played.

    Cheers.

  • Rankings as of 10:23am on 1/30/2012.  Sagarin Ratings for games though 1/30/2012.  AP Poll as of 1/30/2012.

    Previous rankings are here.

    Moving into the top 25 were Vanderbilt, Florida, Virginia, and Louisville.  They replaced Seton Hall, UConn, Minnesota, and Kansas St. who all dropped out of the top 25.

    Breakdown by conference: 3, 4, 6, 3, 0, 3, 2, 2, 2

    ACC Big East Big Ten Big 12 Pac 12 SEC MWC MVC Other

    Team Rank Change Record AP Sagarin
    Syracuse 1 – 22-1 2 3
    Ohio St. 2 ↑1 19-3 3 1
    Baylor 3 ↓1 19-2 6 9
    Kentucky 4 ↑1 21-1 1 2
    Duke 5 ↑1 18-3 7 10
    Michigan St. 6 ↑2 17-4 9 5
    Creighton 7 ↑3 20-2 13 16
    Missouri 8 ↓4 19-2 4 8
    Marquette 9 ↑2 18-4 15 14
    Kansas 10 ↓2 17-4 8 4
    Wisconsin 11 ↑2 17-5 19 6
    Indiana 12 ↓3 17-5 20 11
    North Carolina 13 ↑5 18-3 5 7
    UNLV 14 ↑3 20-3 11 13
    St. Mary’s-CA 15 ↑6 21-2 18 18
    San Diego St. 16 ↓2 18-3 17 44
    Michigan 17 ↓1 17-4 23 33
    Georgetown 18 ↓6 16-4 14 17
    Louisville 19 ↑8 17-5 27 28
    Illinois 20 ↓5 15-6 38 42
    Wichita St. 21 ↓2 18-4 30 15
    Virginia 22 ↑8 17-3 16 20
    Florida 23 ↑8 17-4 12 12
    Vanderbilt 24 ↑7 16-5 25 31
    Gonzaga 25 ↓2 17-3 24  29

    26-35: Minnesota, Mississippi St., New Mexico, Purdue, Southern Miss, UConn, Kansas St., Murray St., Seton Hall, Alabama

    BCS: My offer still stands…….if you want to contact me you can send me a tweet @StatsInTheWild.

    Cheers.

  • I was listening to the radio this morning (Dennis and Callahan) and one of the callers to the show mentioned a U.S. News poll that found that American’s biggest fear in 2012, by a 2-1 margin, was the re-election of Barack Obama.  Now, if you’re calling into a sports radio show, I’m not going to trust you;  if you’re calling in to a sport radio show to talk about politics with Dennis and Callahan, I trust you even less.  And I didn’t trust this guy’s “statistic” that nearly two-thirds of those polled were fearful of Obama being re-elected.

    So when I got to work this morning, I looked up this poll.  The article I believe the caller was referring to is this one by Paul Bedard complete with the headline “Poll: Americans, 2-1, Fear Obama’s Reelection”.  The poll results cited in the article are as follows:

    As we enter the presidential election year of 2012, what potential news event do you fear the most?

    President Obama wins reelection 33%

    Taxes will increase 31%

    Iran will get a nuclear weapon 16%

    Obama will lose reelection 16%

    North Korea will attack South Korea 4%

    I don’t know who looks at the results of this poll and takes away the headline “Americans, 2-1, Fear Obama’s Reelection”.  That headline implies (intentionally?) that the question that was asked in the poll was “Do you fear Obama’s re-election” when, in fact, the question asked was “As we enter the presidential election year of 2012, what potential news event do you fear the most?”

    These are entirely different questions and to draw the conclusion that “Americans, 2-1, Fear Obama’s Reelection” is, at best, unintentionally misleading.  You could say “Americans, 2-1, cite Obama’s re-election as their number one fear,” but that is an entirely different statement.  If you really want to know how many American’s fear Obama’s re-election, you need to ask that question in a well sampled poll, which this may or may not have been.

    Regardless, there is no way to look at the results of this pool and honestly draw the conclusion that “Americans, 2-1, Fear Obama’s Reelection”.   This is either a misunderstanding leading to a misleading headline or intentionally dishonest.

    PS Regardless of your politics, how can anymore be more fearful of the 2012 presidential outcome or your taxes going up than of Iran getting a nuclear weapon.  Maybe you’re annoyed or bothered that your taxes will go up, but do you fear an increase in taxes?  Iran getting a nuclear weapon is more than just an annoyance or a bother.

    Cheers.

  • Rankings as of 8:26am on 1/23/2012.  Sagarin Ratings for games though 1/23/2012.  AP Poll as of 1/23/2012.

    Previous rankings are here.

    (Note: The Missouri Valley Conference will now be represented by red.  In order for the Pac-12 to earn back their color, they will need to get a team in the top 25 and have all the MVC teams fall out of the top 25.  Until that happens, Pac-12 teams will be listed in the “other” category.)

    Breakdown by conference: 2, 5, 7, 4, 0, 1, 2, 2, 2

    ACC Big East Big Ten Big 12 Pac 12 SEC MWC MVC Other

    Team Rank Change Record AP Sagarin
    Syracuse 1 – 20-1 3 4
    Baylor 2 – 17-2 6 9
    Ohio St. 3 – 17-3 4 1
    Missouri 4 ↑4 18-1 2 5
    Kentucky 5 ↑4 19-1 1 3
    Duke 6 ↓2 16-3 8 10
    Kansas 7 ↑3 16-3 5 2
    Michigan St.  8 ↓3 16-4 10 6 
    Indiana 9 ↓2 16-4 16 11
    Creighton 10 ↑4 18-2 15 17
    Marquette 11 ↑5 16-4 17 15
    Georgetown 12 ↑5 16-3 9 14
    Wisconsin 13 ↑2 16-5 25 8
    San Diego St.  14 ↑4 17-2 13 42
    Illinois 15 ↓9 15-5 33 41
    Michigan 16 ↓5 15-5 20 39
    UNLV 17 ↑4 18-3 12 12
    North Carolina 18 ↑2 16-3 7 7
    Wichita St.  19 ↑6 17-3 31 13
    Seton Hall 20 ↓8 15-4 NR 33
    St. Mary’s-CA 21 NR 19-2 21 22
    UConn 22 ↓9 14-5 24 37
    Gonzaga 23 NR 16-3 27 27
    Minnesota 24 NR 15-5 NR 45
    Kansas St.   25 NR 14-4 22 18

    26-35: Mississippi St., Louisville, Purdue, West Virginia, Virginia, Vanderbilt, Florida, Alabama, Murray St., Cincinnati

    BCS: My offer still stands…….if you want to contact me you can send me a tweet @StatsInTheWild.

    Cheers.

  • “Our standard response to a paper in Science, Nature, or Psychological Science should be ‘wow, that’ll be really interesting if it replicates.’”- 

    Cheers.