NFL Simulations (in the wild)

Here are the StatsInTheWild rankings of the NFL teams after Week 10.
Rank Teams Wins
1 NewEngland 7
2 Atlanta 7
3 NYJets 7
4 Pittsburgh 6
5 Baltimore 6
6 Miami 5
7 Philadelphia 6
8 NewOrleans 6
9 TampaBay 6
10 GreenBay 6
11 Indianapolis 6
12 Tennessee 5
13 Cleveland 3
14 NYGiants 6
15 Chicago 6
16 Jacksonville 5
17 KansasCity 5
18 Oakland 5
19 Seattle 5
20 SanDiego 4
21 Houston 4
22 Washington 4
23 Denver 3
24 Minnesota 3
25 Cincinnati 2
26 Arizona 3
27 StLouis 4
28 SanFrancisco 3
29 Dallas 2
30 Detroit 2
31 Buffalo 1
32 Carolina 1

The two teams that pop out are the Giants and the Browns. The Browns are 3-6 with wins over the Bengals, Saints, and Patriots. Their losses are to Tampa Bay, Kansas City, Baltimore, Atlanta, Pittsburgh, and the Jets. Those teams average 6.33 wins each and all hold at least a share of the lead in their respective division.

The Giants have losses to Indianapolis, Tennessee, and Dallas. They have beaten Carolina, Chicago, Houston, Detroit, Dallas, and Seattle. The six teams they have beaten average only 3.33 wins. A vast difference in schedule.

I also wrote some code to simulate the rest of the NFL season based on what has already happened. So I used the games that have already occurred as data for a model (a very simply model). This model predicts the probability of a win for a given team. Then the rest of the season is simulated 5000 times based on the estimated probabilities of winning a game.
Here are the results of that:

Probability that a team wins its division:
Division Winners:
AFCEast
Miami NewEngland NYJets
0.0080 0.6004 0.3916

AFC North
Baltimore Cleveland Pittsburgh
0.4712 0.0004 0.5284

AFC South
Houston Indianapolis Jacksonville Tennessee
0.0020 0.6158 0.1058 0.2764

AFC West
Denver KansasCity Oakland SanDiego
0.0450 0.5646 0.2138 0.1766

NFC East
NYGiants Philadelphia Washington
0.1850 0.8118 0.0032

NFC North
Chicago GreenBay Minnesota
0.2066 0.7886 0.0048

NFC South
Atlanta NewOrleans TampaBay
0.9150 0.0432 0.0418

NFC West
Arizona SanFrancisco Seattle StLouis
0.1726 0.0374 0.6958 0.0942

Conference Champions:
AFC
Baltimore Cleveland Indianapolis Jacksonville KansasCity Miami
0.1524 0.0002 0.0378 0.0010 0.0008 0.0078
NewEngland NYJets Oakland Pittsburgh Tennessee
0.3418 0.1844 0.0138 0.2586 0.0014

NFC
Atlanta Chicago GreenBay NewOrleans NYGiants Philadelphia
0.5882 0.0280 0.0484 0.0556 0.0084 0.2106
Seattle TampaBay
0.0156 0.0452

Super Bowl Champion:

Atlanta Baltimore Chicago GreenBay Indianapolis KansasCity
0.3112 0.0862 0.0040 0.0126 0.0094 0.0002
Miami NewEngland NewOrleans NYGiants NYJets Oakland
0.0032 0.2154 0.0154 0.0016 0.1068 0.0022
Philadelphia Pittsburgh Seattle TampaBay Tennessee
0.0640 0.1522 0.0016 0.0134 0.0006

So, right now SITW is predicting a Atlanta Falcons – New England Patriots Superbowl with Atlanta winning.

Cheers.

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Posted on November 15, 2010, in Uncategorized. Bookmark the permalink. Leave a comment.

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