Stat Pundit Rankings: MLB win over-unders

About two weeks ago, I used some familiar metrics to analyze how analytics-based websites performed as far as predicting MLB win totals. With the regular season now complete, winning bets have been cashed, and the official performance for each site is listed below:

O/U: The Hilton’s over/under for each team

BP: Baseball prospectus

TR: Team Rankings (caveat on the linked page: the site stresses their MLB predictions are a work in progress)

DP: Davenport

Zips: ZIPS projection system (espn.com)

PM: Prediction Machine

TB: Trading bases, an avid blogger and book-writer

Here are my metrics

MSE: Averaged squared error between the prediction and the win totals (lower is better)

MAE: Averaged absolute error between the prediction and the win totals (lower is better)

Corr: Correlation between the predicted and the win totals (higher is better)

Results

O/U BP TR DP Zips PM TB
MSE 82.65 74.40 98.60 85.43 87.53 94.27 71.53
MAE 7.37 7.33 8.40 7.37 7.40 7.86 6.93
Corr 0.66 0.70 0.58 0.64 0.64 0.59 0.71

Baseball Prospectus and Trading Bases appear to offer the only clear advantage over the Las Vegas line, at least among these predictions, as judged by a higher correlation and a lower MSE between observed and predicted values. On average, TB was the only prediction site to finish, on average, within seven wins of the actual results.

A savvy bettor would’ve finished 12-9 on bets where BP differed by the Las Vegas O/U by more than two wins, and 10-6 using the same cutoff for TB. Picks that BP and TB agreed (by more than 2 predicted wins) on finished 7-4

Here are the Vegas lines and each site’s picks. In some cases, the projected total wins might not add up to 82 per team, most likely due to rounding errors.

Team O/U BP TR DP Zips PM TB Actual
Diamondbacks 82.5 85 83 81 85 76.8 80 81
Braves 86.5 83 85 85 91 86.6 82 96
Orioles 78.5 75 81 75 82 79.2 76 85
Red Sox 82.5 85 79 85 84 80.5 83 97
Cubs 72.5 77 73 76 74 75.8 69 66
White Sox 80.5 76 83 76 80 85 78 63
Reds 90.5 92 84 86 90 91.1 84 90
Indians 78.5 80 74 79 80 76.8 85 92
Rockies 71.5 71 75 74 70 77.5 70 74
Tigers 92.5 91 86 95 91 89.7 95 93
Marlins 63.5 67 75 65 65 65.3 64 62
Astros 58.5 63 67 72 57 62.5 66 51
Royals 78.5 76 78 80 79 75 77 86
Angels 91.5 91 86 91 93 93.3 88 78
Dodgers 91.5 91 83 88 90 90.6 91 92
Brewers 81.5 78 83 78 81 77.6 78 74
Twins 68.5 65 74 69 66 70.9 66 66
Mets 75.5 80 78 76 66 76.8 74 74
Yankees 86.5 91 90 86 83 84.7 87 85
Athletics 84.5 83 86 84 78 85.3 85 96
Phillies 85.5 81 84 81 82 81 86 73
Pirates 77.5 80 77 81 77 74.8 79 94
Padres 73.5 76 78 76 73 72.7 81 76
Giants 87.5 85 85 92 87 85.1 88 76
Cardinals 82.5 85 86 83 85 85.1 90 97
Rays 86.5 87 88 86 88 89.5 93 91
Rangers 86.5 89 88 85 91 86.8 85 91
Blue Jays 88.5 84 78 86 94 87.5 82 74
Nationals 91.5 87 86 85 94 92.5 90 86
Mariners 77.5 78 79 73 74 74 78 71
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Posted on September 30, 2013, in Uncategorized and tagged , , , . Bookmark the permalink. Leave a comment.

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