It’s still relatively early in the NFL season, but signs point to this being one of the worst seasons ever for simulation & statistics based predictors of game results. In fact, having followed several websites for the last few years, this is by far the worst I can remember each one doing as far as accuracy is concerned.

Here, I summarize results through week 7.

Football Outsiders (FO) : These guys have pretty much set the standard for NFL statistical analyses, as demonstrated by their preseason almanacs, appearances across the media, and downloadable spreadsheets with all sorts of good information. In their first five years of picking games against the spread (ATS), from 2008 to 2012, FO finished with yearly success rates of 53.7%, 51.2%, 56.1%, 52.0%, and 57.8%, respectively. There’s no public access for historical picks, but I’ve followed along and these numbers are 100% trustworthy.

This Fall, however…