An analytic look at the 2013-2014 NBA season


The 2013-2014 NBA season is here. Is your team ready to outperform its expectation?

In this post, I aggregated several statistical or simulation-based predictions of each team’s regular season wins. The prediction sites or methods used included Team Rankings, Schoene (ESPN), Prediction Machine, and Box Score Geeks, and I compared these predictions against posted totals for team wins using (which I’ll call the ‘Las Vegas line’).

First, here’s a look at the correlation between each site’s projected win totals. Team Rankings and Prediction Machine seem very similar to the Las Vegas posted win totals, with slightly higher deviations in the Schoene projection. The Box Score Geek projection system seems well off that of the other sites.

Las Vegas LineSchoeneTeam RankingsPrediction MachineBox Score Geeks
Las Vegas Line1.000.910.990.990.72
Team Rankings0.990.891.00

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Posted on November 5, 2013, in Uncategorized. Bookmark the permalink. Leave a comment.

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