I introduced the Cinderella plot a few years ago, but I haven’t updated it for this year’s tournament until now.  (I’ve been busy with the job search, which was successful(!)….more to come on that….).  So without further delay, I present to you the Cinderella plot for all of the NCAA tournaments from 2002 through 2014:

As you can see, two 5 seeds (Indiana and Butler) and even an 8 seed (Butler, again) have made it to the final game in the past 13 years.  But they all played a team ranked 3 or higher.  Never in the last 13 years, or ever for that matter, have the seeds for the teams in the finals been this high.  We’ve got a 7 seed versus an 8 seed, though I’d argue that both of these teams are better than their seed.  That’s not to say that they didn’t get a seed that they DESERVED, which is based on what has actually happened in the season.  But that’s a little bit different that projecting what they are capable of in the future.  Based on that, it’s not really THAT surprising that either of these teams is in the final game.  In fact, I had both of them ranked in the top 25 at the end of the season: Kentucky at 13 and UConn at 21.  (Even though I thought Kentucky should have been a 7 seed and UConn an 8. )

Cheers.