We always think we’re right, but we don’t think we’re always right.

God plays dice

Jordan Ellenberg on how many states Nate Silver is going to get wrong, according to Nate Silver. (This refers to the elections of US Senators taking place tomorrow.) For each state Silver gives a probability of winning; we can give a probability that Silver will be wrong which is just his own predicted probability that the underdog wins. The answer is an an expected value of 2.5. Silver has been saying since the 2012 election that he got lucky in calling all fifty states correctly. In some sense it would have been more impressive if he’d missed a couple, which would have shown his predictions were calibrated correctly. (I remember trying to explain this to colleagues at my job at the time, where I’d been for a bit over a month; I think I did so successfully, but it’s a subtle point.)

Silver’s famous 50-for-50 2012 presidential predictions are

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Posted on November 3, 2014, in Uncategorized. Bookmark the permalink. Leave a comment.

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