Kaggle March Madnes Machine Learning Scenarios with 6 games remaining

We. Are. Still. Alive.

Disclaimer: I’m not guaranteeing that everything here is correct.  Please verify everything for yourself if you plan on using this information to hedge.

Scenarios where we finish first

There are only 32 possible scenarios left for the rest of the NCAA tournament.  There are two scenarios that would make us repeat champions.

1.) Final Four of Kentucky, Wisconsin, Gonzaga, and Michigan State with Gonzaga beating Kentucky in the finals.

2.) Final Four of Kentucky, Wisconsin, Gonzaga, and Louisville with Gonzaga beating Kentucky in the finals.

Scenarios where we finish second

There are three scenarios that we finish second in:

1.) Final Four of Kentucky, Wisconsin, Gonzaga, and Louisville with Gonzaga beating Wisconsin in the finals.

2.) Final Four of Kentucky,Wisconsin, Duke, and Louisville with Louisville beating Kentucky in the finals.

3.) Final Four of Kentucky,Wisconsin, Duke, and Michigan State with Michigan State beating Kentucky in the finals.

Some notes

  • If Duke wins tomorrow, we cannot repeat as champions.
  • If Gonzaga beats Kentucky in the finals, we win.
  • If Kentucky makes it to the finals and loses, the worst we can finish is 4th.
  • If Louisville wins tomorrow, ZachB cannot win.
  • No matter what happens in the games tomorrow, we will still have a scenario to finish top 2.
  • At the end of the Sunday night, we will either be in 6th, 12th, or 14th.
  • We are currently in 13th.
  • 7 of the top 12 teams have no chance to cash.
  • We cannot win if Kentucky wins it all.
  • If Gonzaga beats Duke, we end the night in 14th no matter what happens in the other game.
  • If Louisville and Duke win, we end the night in 6th, but have no chance to finish first.
  • The worst we can finish at the end of the tournament is 18th.  This would happen if Kentucky, Wisconsin, Duke and Louisville made it to the final four and Wisconsin beat Louisville.
  • In 7 of the 32 scenarios remaining, we finish in third, with a remaining 4 scenarios where we finish in fourth.
  • In 24 out of the 32 scenarios we finish in the top 10.
  • Based on current odds, the Final Four is expected to be Kentucky, Wisconsin, Duke, and Michigan State with Kentucky beating Duke in the finals.  In that scenario we finish 7th.

There are 4 possible final four scenarios.  Each has its own heading.  Under each of the 4 scenarios, I list a finals result, and, given that result, who finishes first, second, and what place my team finishes.

Potential Winners with 6 games to play

Final Four: Kentucky, Wisconsin, Duke, Louisville

Kentucky beats Duke: Yosarian, ZachB, 8

Duke beats Kentucky: Juho, Pookie, 3

Kentucky beats Louisville: Yosarian, Bayz, 16

Louisville beats Kentucky: Juho, One Shining MGF, 2

Wisconsin beats Duke: Monte, Wally, 7

Duke beats Wisconsin: Monte, ZachB, 4

Wisconsin beats Louisville: Monte, Wally, 18

Louisville beats Wisconsin: Wally, Monte, 3

Final Four: Kentucky, Wisconsin, Duke, Michigan State

Kentucky beats Duke: Yosarian, ZachB, 7

Duke beats Kentucky: Pookie, Juho, 4

Kentucky beats Michigan St: Yosarian, ZachB, 13

Michigan State beats Kentucky: Juho, One Shining MGF, 2

Wisconsin beats Duke: Monte, ZachB, 6

Duke beats Wisconsin: ZachB, Monte, 4

Wisconsin beats Michigan State: ZachB, Wally, 15

Michigan State beats Wisconsin: Wally, ZachB, 3

Final Four: Kentucky, Wisconsin, Gonzaga, Louisville

Kentucky beats Gonzaga: Yosarian, Lavarel, 5

Gonzaga beats Kentucky: One Shining MGF, Coop, 1

Kentucky beats Louisville: Lavarel, Yosarian, 15

Louisville beats Kentucky: Juho, Wally, 3

Wisconsin beats Gonzaga: Wally, ur1, 6

Gonzaga beats Wisconsin: Wally, One Shining MGF, 2

Wisconsin beats Louisville: Wally, Monte, 16

Louisville beats Wisconsin: Wally, Monte, 4

Final Four: Kentucky, Wisconsin, Gonzaga, Michigan State

Kentucky beats Gonzaga: Lavarel, ZachB, 7

Gonzaga beats Kentucky: One Shining MGF, ZachB, 1

Kentucky beats Michigan State: Lavarel, ZachB, 13

Michigan State beats Kentucky: Yosarian, Juho, 3

Wisconsin beats Gonzaga: Wally, ZachB, 7

Gonzaga beats Wisconsin: ZachB, Wally, 3

Wisconsin beats Michigan State: Wally, Zach B, 15

Michigan State beats Wisconsin: Wally, ZachB, 3

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Posted on March 29, 2015, in Uncategorized. Bookmark the permalink. 1 Comment.

  1. Regardless of how it turns out, it’s a great accomplishment. Your performance (and Monte McNair’s) across the last two years is making me re-think whether there are significant performance difference between the top Kaggle finishers. I’ve been of the opinion that the top 50 or so are essentially random, but you guys are providing strong evidence that’s not true!

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