I want to start with this plot:

This plot shows all the 1 and 2 seeds and their odds of making it to each round relative to Duke.  I think the most interesting parts of this plot are where they cross.  So for instance, Gonzaga is more likely to make the Final 4 than Virginia, but Virginia is more likely to make the Finals than Gonzaga.  That’s because Gonzaga will likely have to play Duke to get to the Finals.  Whereas Virginia will likely only (ONLY) have to play North Carolina/Kentucky to get to the Finals.

Another example is that Tennessee is more likely to make the Sweet Sixteen than Michigan State, but Michigan State is more likely to make the Elite 8 than Tennessee.  It then switches back again and Tennessee is more likely to make it to the Final 4, Finals, and win it all than Michigan State.  So what is going on here?  It’s Duke again.  In order for Michigan State to get to the Final Four, they’ll probably have to beat Duke.

Zion Williamson is really good.  Thus, Duke is really good.

Now here is some more fun stuff:

Most likely double digit seeds to win first round game

(10) Seton Hall over Wofford – 41.25%

(10) Florida over Nevada – 40.23%

(10) Minnesota over Louisville – 32.5%

(11) Arizona State over Buffalo – 32.5% (given they win the play in game)

(11) St. Mary’s over Villanova – 28.35%

(11) Ohio State over Iowa State – 27.84%

(11) Belmont over Maryland – 25.52%

(12) Oregon over Wisconsin – 24.95%

(12) Murray State over Marquette – 24.1%

(12) Liberty over Mississippi State – 21.52%

(14) Georgia State over Houston – 17.6%

(14) Yale over LSU – 17.35%

(13) Northeastern over Kansas – 13.95%

(13) UC Irvine over Kansas State – 13.6%

(13) St. Louis over Virginia Tech – 13.6%

(13) Vermont over Florida State – 12.8%

Biggest toss-up first round games

(10) Iowa over (7) Cincy – 50.38%

(8) Mississippi over (9) Oklahoma – 50.65%

(9) UCF over (8) VCU – 50.69%

(8) Syracuse over (9) Baylor (51.97%)

Most like to make it to the Sweet 16

(1) Duke – 90.67%

(1) Gonzaga – 83.71%

(1) Virginia – 83.6%

(1) North Carolina – 83.34%

(2) Kentucky – 79.82%

(2) Tennessee – 76.61%

(2) Michigan State – 74.27%

(3) Texas Tech – 69.74%

(3) Purdue – 66.27%

(2) Michigan – 64.83% (They are going to have to beat either Nevada or Florida.  Both are tough opponents in for a 2 seed in the second round.)

Most likely double digit seed to make Sweet Sixteen

(10) Florida – 11.53%

(10) Iowa 11.27%

(11) Ohio St – 11.22%

(12) Oregon – 8.15%

(11) Belmont – 7.32%

(10) Seton Hall – 7.02%

Most likely 5 seed or higher to make Final Four

(5) Auburn  – 8.87%

(6) Iowa State – 7.41%

(5) Wisconsin – 4.96%

(7) Nevada – 3.62%

(5) Mississippi State – 3.55%

Most likely double digit seed to make Final Four

(10) Florida – 1.04%

(10) Iowa 1.00%

(11) Ohio St – 0.71%

(10) Seton Hall – 0.033%

Most likely to win the tournament

(1) Duke – 21.07%

(1) Virginia – 15.94%

(1) Gonzaga – 15.78%

(2) Kentucky – 8.16%

(1) North Carolina – 7.96%

(2) Tennessee – 6.74%

(2) Michigan St – 5.4%

(2) Michigan – 3.87%

(3) Purdue – 3.28%

(3) Texas Tech – 2.88%

(5) Auburn – 1.09%

(6) Iowa State – 0.91%

(4) Kansas – 0.86%

Cheers.