Before I begin, I have to admit to being a hypocritical coward. We should all be boycotting this World Cup. Qatar bribed FIFA to host it and then when building the stadiums several thousand migrant workers have died. So……not great. And that’s not to mention that Qatar is one of 10 countries where homosexuality may be punished by death. I love the World Cup, but I fucking hate FIFA and I kind of think I hate Qatar, too. Ok. Time for advancement scenarios!

Group A

Qatar

First things first, Qatar is out. No host team has ever been eliminated after two games. That is Qatar’s legacy.

Netherlands

The Netherlands advances with a win OR a tie. They can also advance with a loss if Ecuador wins. They can even advance with a loss if Senegal wins, as long as they lose less badly than Ecuador. So a lot would need to go wrong for the Netherlands to not get through to the round of 16.

Ecuador

Ecuador advances with a win OR a tie. They can also get in with a loss if Qatar beats the Netherlands by worse than Senegal beats them. But they shouldn’t worry about that.

Senegal

Senegal advances with a win. They can also get in with a tie and then get some help from Qatar beating the Netherlands by a few goals. They can still win the group with a win and help from Qatar drawing or winning against the Netherlands.

Here’s all the advancement scenarios graphically.

(Key – Green: Win group, Yellow: Second in group, Red: Eliminated, Light Green: Tie for first, Orange: Tie for second.)

Group B

England

England gets in with a win or a tie or a loss by less than 2. They can also advance with a loss if Iran-USA ends in a draw. A win guarantees them first in the group.

Iran

Iran gets in with a win. They can also get in with a tie as long as England wins or draws their match against Wales.

USA

It’s as simple as it gets: Win and they advance. Any other result they are eliminated.

Wales

Wales still somehow controls their own destiny even though they are on one point after 2 games. All Wales needs to do to advance is beat England by 3 or more goals (which is, not likely, but hey, who knows). They can also get in with any type of win as long as Iran-USA ends in a draw.

Group C

Poland

Poland advances with a win or a draw. They can also get in with a loss and a bit of help from Mexico. They win the group with any type of win or a tie and a Mexican win or draw.

Argentina

Argentina advances with a win. They can also get in with a tie and a Mexican tie or win…but not a win by too much.

Saudi Arabia

Saudi Arabia advances with a win. They can also advance with a tie and a Poland win or a tie and an Argentina win……but not a win by too much. They also have a shot to win the group with the easiest way being a win and a tie in the Argentina-Poland game.

Mexico

Mexico has a sort of Wales situation on their hands here where they control their own destiny. All they need to do to guarantee they advance is beat Saudi Arabia by 4 goals. Any other win and they need a bit of help (i.e. Poland win or Argentina win by enough goals). Mexico cannot win the group.

Group D

France

France is qualified for the round of 16. They win the group with a win or a tie. Or even most situations in which they lose. France is good.

Australia

Australia advances with any win. They can also get in with a tie as long as France wins or ties.

Denmark

Denmark can advance with a win but they need help. They advance with a win as long as France win or ties. If France loses Denmark needs to beat Tunisia on goal differential. They cannot win the group.

Tunisia

Tunisia can advance with a win….but they need a lot of help….and beating France is hard. With the win they need a Denmark-Australia draw or a Denmark win and then you beat Denmark on goal differential. Just like Denmark, they can’t win the group.

Group E

Spain

Spain advances with a win or a draw. They can also get in with a loss and a Germany-Costa Rica draw or most German wins.

Japan

Japan is in almost the same bot as the US: Win and you’re in. Nearly every other result leads to elimination. The exception being that they can advance with a draw if Germany ties Costa Rica or Germany beats Costa Rica by exactly 1 goal and then Japan wins the goals for tiebreaker against Germany, which is currently ties 2-2.

Costa Rica

Costa Rica advances with any win. They can also advance with a tie and a win from Spain. Everything else is elimination.

Germany

Germany does not control their own destiny. They need a win and a Spanish win or draw. They can also advance with a win and a Spain loss as long as they blow out Costa Rica and Japan blows out Spain. No matter what they cannot win the group.

Group F

Croatia

Croatia advances with a win or a draw. They can still get in with a loss but they would then need help from Canada. You never want to have to rely on Canada……

Morocco

Morocco advances with a win or a draw. They also advance with a loss and a Croatian win. There are also scenarios where they get in with a loss and a Belgium win and even a Belgium-Croatia draw.

Belgium

Belgium advances with a win. They also have a few scenarios where they can get in with a tie, but they would need help from Canada…..and you never want to rely on Canada. They win the group with a win and a Canadian win or draw.

Canada

Oh, Canada. You are eliminated. I hope they enjoyed that 1-0 lead over Croatia while it lasted.

Group G

Brazil

Brazil is in the round of 16. They join France and Portugal one of only 3 teams to have already advanced to the round of 16. They win the group with a win or a tie or a loss with a Serbian win or tie. But they will probably just win so that won’t matter.

Switzerland

Switzerland advances with a win. If they tie, they need help from Brazil with win or tie or lose a close game. They can win the group with a win and a Brazil loss and then winning the goal differential tie breaker.

Cameroon

Cameroon can still advance with a win. But they need help from Serbia with draw or win (but not win by enough to take the goal differential from them). Cameroon will be rooting for Serbia but not too much. They need a small Serbia victory to help themselves.

Serbia

Serbia needs to win to advance, but they also need help. They either need Brazil to win or tie (it’s nicer to have to rely on Brazil than Canada…). They can even get in with a win and a Brazilian loss as long as they still beat Cameroon on the goal differential. Serbia is rooting for Brazil.

Group H

Hey, want to hear something weird? The advancement scenarios for Group G are exactly the same as the advancement scenarios for Group H. Just replace Brazil, Switzerland, Cameroon, and Serbia with Portugal, Ghana, South Korea, and Uruguay. That’s right. The points AND goal differentials are EXACTLY the same for Groups G and H (the third tie breaker, goals for, is different). Weird, right?

Portugal

Portugal is in the round of 16. They join France and Brazil one of only 3 teams to have already advanced to the round of 16. They win the group with a win or a tie or a loss with a Uruguay win or tie. But they will probably just win so that won’t matter.

Ghana

Ghana advances with a win. If they tie, they need help from Portugal with win or tie or lose a close game. They can win the group with a win and a Portugal loss and then winning the goal differential tie breaker.

South Korea

South Korea can still advance with a win. But they need help from Uruguay with draw or win (but not win by enough to take the goal differential from them). South Korea will be rooting for Uruguay but not too much. They need a small Uruguay victory to help themselves.

Uruguay

Uruguay needs to win to advance, but they also need help. They either need Portugal to win or tie (it’s nicer to have to rely on Portugal than Canada…). They can even get in with a win and a Portugal loss as long as they still beat South Korea on the goal differential. Uruguay is rooting for Portugal.

Cheers.