Category Archives: BCS

StatsInTheWild picks all 35 bowl games

I’ve picked all 35 bowl games based on my rankings.  I’ll post my running record as the games are played.  (Also, check out my final regular season rankings here.)

And which games am I looking forward to this year?  My number one pick for bowl entertainment is the Fight Hunger bowl.  This monstrosity of a “bowl game” will feature a UCLA team with a losing record who had to petition the NCAA to even be allowed to play in a bowl game and an Illinois team on a 6 game losing streak.  These are the kind of match-ups that I live for.

Record: 21-14
=Correct Pick; =Incorrect Pick

Bowl Predicted Winner Outcome
New Mexico Wyoming
Famous Idaho Potato Ohio
New Orleans San Diego State
St.Petersburg Marshall
Poinsetta TCU
Las Vegas Boise State
Hawaii Southern Miss ✓ 
Independence Missouri
Little Caesars Purdue  
Belk Louisville ✗ 
Military  Toledo ✓ 
Holiday Texas  
Champs Sports Notre Dame ✗ 
Alamo Baylor
Armed Forces Tulsa
Pinstripe Iowa State
Music City Miss State
Insight Oklahoma ✓ 
Texas Texas A&M
Sun Georgia Tech ✗ 
Liberty Cincy
Fight Hunger UCLA ✗  
Chick-fil-A Auburn  
Ticketcity Houston
Outback Georgia ✗ 
Capital One South Carolina ✓ 
Gator Florida ✓ 
Rose Oregon ✓  
Fiesta Oklahoma State ✓   
Sugar Virginia Tech ✗ 
Orange Clemson   
Cotton Kansas State
Compass  SMU ✓   
Godaddy.com Arkansas State ✗ 
BCS Championship LSU ✗ 

Cheers.

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One More Arbitrary NCAA Football Ranking Scheme for the BCS – 12/4/2011

Rankings as of 12/04/2011.  Previous weeks rankings here.

The BCS explained:  It used to be that a national champion in college football was determined solely by human polls.  However, human polls are suspect because you are asking each voter to process the results of hundreds of college football games from teams all across the country and form a well thought out, reasoned ranking of the top 25 teams, which is clearly impossible; It’s too much data for a human to handle.  That’s why the BCS introduced the computer rankings which could, without personal bias, crunch the numbers and produce a ranking taking all games into account equally.  The computer rankings, on the average, do a very reasonable job of ranking the teams.   Ultimately, however, the non-human polls, a computational exercise in futility, are simply ignored, as they are overwhelmed by the human polls, and the BCS gets what it wants while it hides behind the computer polls to offer a whiff of legitimacy to the absolute garbage it spews out.

BCS Bowl Team

ACC Big East Big Ten Big 12 Pac 12 SEC Other

 Team Rank Change Record BCS Rank
LSU 1 13-0 1
Oklahoma State 2 11-1 3
Kansas State 3 ↑↑ 10-2 8
Alabama 4 11-1
Oklahoma 5 ↓↓ 9-3 14 
Baylor 6 9-3 12
Stanford 7 11-1 4
Oregon 8 ↑↑↑ 11-2 5
Arkansas 9 10-2 6
South Carolina 10 10-2 9
USC 11 10-2
Georgia 12 10-3 16
Virginia Tech 13 11-2 11
Boise State 14 ↑↑↑ 11-1 7
Michigan 15 10-2 13
Wisconsin 16 ↑↑ 11-2 10
Texas 17 ↓↓↓ 7-5 24
Clemson 18 ↑↑↑↑ 10-3 15
Nebraska 19 9-3 20
Houston 20 ↓↓↓↓↓ 12-1 19
Missouri 21 7-5
TCU 22 ↑↑↑↑↑ 10-2 18
Michigan State 23 ↓↓↓ 10-3 17
Penn State 24 9-3 22
Texas A&M 25 6-6

And finally, representing the Big East/Big Least: West Virginia

BCS: My offer still stands…….if you want to contact me you can send me a tweet @StatsInTheWild.

Cheers.

One More Arbitrary NCAA Football Ranking Scheme for the BCS – 11/27/2011

Rankings as of 11/27/2011.  Previous weeks rankings here.

Some people were not thrilled about my rankings last week when I still had Oklahoma State ranked number 1.  For example, one guy critically criticized me by saying: “I’m impressed! You spell very well and your paragraph structure is spot in. That us amazing since it is apparent that you are fucking retarded.”  He will be happy to know that I now have LSU ranked number 1.

 Team Rank Change Record BCS Rank
LSU 1 1 12-0 1
Oklahoma State 2 -1 10-1
Oklahoma 3 1 9-2
Alabama 4 1 11-1
Kansas State 5 -2 9-2
Stanford 6 3 11-1
Baylor 7 0 8-3
Arkansas 8 -2 10-2
South Carolina 9 1 10-2
USC 10 2 10-2
Oregon 11 0 10-2
Georgia 12 2 10-2
Virginia Tech 13 -5 11-1
Texas 14 -1 7-4
Houston 15 0 12-0
Michigan 16 2 10-2
Boise State 17 4 10-1
Nebraska 18 5 9-3
Wisconsin 19 10-2
Michigan State 20 4 10-2
Missouri 21 1 7-5
Clemson 22 -6 9-3
Iowa State 23 -6 6-5
Texas A&M 24 -4 6-6
Penn State 25 -6 9-3

BCS: My offer still stands…….if you want to contact me you can send me a tweet @StatsInTheWild.

Cheers.

Defending my rankings

Ok.  So I’m not sure I can defend my rankings, but I am going to try.  Even after losing to Iowa State, I still have Oklahoma State ranked number 1.  Let me try to explain what I think it going on.

The Big 12 won a lot of their non-conference games at the beginning of the season, so I’ve had them ranked as the best conference for most of the way.  What this means is that since most of the teams are ranked so high in the Big 12, that a loss to one of those really good teams doesn’t hurt that much

Ok State won it’s first three games easily over Louisiana-Lafayette, Arizona, and Tulsa.  Then they had to play 9 straight conference games in the toughest conference in the country.  Their only real weak game in conference play is Kansas.  They’ve beat Texas A&M, Texas, Kansas State, Missouri, Texas Tech, and Baylor before falling to Iowa State.  That’s impressive.  According to my rankings, all 6 of these teams are top 25.  And their one loss is to a team that I had ranked at 22 before they beat Ok State (I have Iowa State at 17 now).  They also beat Tulsa, who I have ranked 29th.

LSU’s conference wins are against Mississippi, Mississippi State, Kentucky, Tennessee, Florida, Auburn, and Alabama.  (Georgia and South Carolina are noticeably absent from LSU’s schedule.)  The first 6 teams have a combined record of 29-38.  Then they have that big win over Alabama.

Their non-conference games were against Oregon, West Virginia, Northwestern State, and Western Kentucky.  The Oregon win is impressive, but the other three games are jokes.  West Virginia is currently third in the Big “We still really get an automatic BCS berth?” East, and LSU shouldn’t even be allowed to schedule games against Northwestern State and Western Kentucky.  As I see it, LSU has three wins over top 25 teams (Alabama, Oregon, and Auburn).

In review, I have Ok State at 6-1 against top 25 teams and LSU at 3-0.  My ranking system rewards teams for playing tough games and Oklahoma State has had one of the toughest schedules in the country this season week in and week out, while LSU the occasional tough opponent.  From top to bottom the Big 12 is much deeper than the SEC.

So that’s my attempt at a defense.  I guess I’ll have to wait until the bowl game results to see if I am right.

Cheers.

One More Arbitrary NCAA Football Ranking Scheme for the BCS – 11/20/2011

Rankings as of 11/20/2011.  Previous weeks rankings here.

(I’ve made a few small corrections from my original post; I found a mistake in the data.  For instance, Michigan State is now in the top 25 at number 24.)

Ok.  I know.  This isn’t going to look good, but…….I still have Oklahoma State ranked 1 even after their loss to Iowa State.  (A defense of my rankings) They nearly survived the Big 12 gauntlet undefeated, which would have been a most impressive feat.  I’m not sure I can defend this, but since none of the BCS rankings have to defend their methodology then neither should I.

Big movers this week include Baylor, Virginia Tech, and Stanford who are all up 4 spots to 7, 8, and 9, respectively.  The biggest move up this week is Iowa State, who jumps 5 spots to 17.

Clemson falls 8 spots after its loss to North Carolina State and they end up 16. Likewise, Nebraska falls 7 spots to number 23 after losing to Michigan.

Cheers.

 Team Rank Change Record BCS Rank
Oklahoma State 1 0 10-1 4
LSU 2 0 11-0 1
Kansas State 3 1 9-2 11
Oklahoma 4 -1 8-2 9
Alabama 5 0 10-1 2
Arkansas 6 0 10-1 3
Baylor 7 4 7-3 18
Virginia Tech 8 4 10-1 5
Stanford 9 4 10-1 6
South Carolina 10 -1 9-2 12
Oregon 11 -4 9-2 10
USC 12 2 9-2 NR
Texas 13 -3 6-4 25
Georgia 14 1 9-2 13
Houston 15 2 11-0 8
Clemson 16 -8 9-2 17
Iowa State 17 5 6-4 NR
Michigan 18 0 9-2 15
Penn State 19 0 9-2 19
Texas A&M 20 0 6-5 NR
Boise State 21 2 9-1 7
Missouri 22 2 6-5 NR
Nebraska 23 -7 8-3 21
Michigan State 24 1 9-2 14
Auburn 25 -4 7-4 24

BCS: My offer still stands…….if you want to contact me you can send me a tweet @StatsInTheWild.

Cheers.

One More Arbitrary NCAA Football Ranking Scheme for the BCS – 11/13/2011

Rankings as of 11/13/2011.  Previous weeks rankings here.

No changes at the top.  I’ve still got Oklahoma State number 1, as I have all season.  LSU comes in at number 2 and Oklahoma at number 3.  Texas falls 4 spots after failing to score a touchdown in their loss to Missouri.  Oregon jumps to 7 after it’s victory over previously undefeated Stanford, who falls to 13.

The two biggest movers upward were Nebraska and Michigan.  Nebraska defeated Penn State to climb 8 spots to 16 and Michigan beat a rapidly fading Illinois team to climb 7 spots to 18.

Texas A&M and Auburn both fell 6 spots to 20 and 21, respectively.  Texas A&M lost in 4 OT to Kansas State while Auburn fell to Georgia.  Missouri and Michigan State squeak their way into the top 25 at 24 and 25, respectively, as Texas Tech and Georgia Tech drop out.

By conference, I have 8 Big 12 teams in the top 25 and 6 SEC teams.  The Big 10 has 4 teams, the Pac 12 gets 3, and the ACC has 2.  Mountain West and Conference USA have one team each.

 Team Rank Change Record BCS Rank
Oklahoma State 1 0 10-0 2
LSU 2 0 10-0 1
Oklahoma 3 0 8-1 5
Kansas State 4 1 8-2 13
Alabama 5 -1 9-1 3
Arkansas 6 1 9-1 6
Oregon 7 2 9-1 4
Clemson 8 2 9-1 7
South Carolina 9 2 8-2 12
Texas 10 -4 6-3 23
Baylor 11 2 6-3 22
Virginia Tech 12 0 9-1 8
Stanford 13 -5 9-1 9
USC 14 4 8-2 NR
Georgia 15 2 8-2 14
Nebraska 16 8 8-2 16
Houston 17 2 10-0 11
Michigan 18 7 8-2 18
Penn State 19 -3 8-2 21
Texas A&M 20 -6 6-3 NR
Auburn 21 -6 6-4 24
Iowa State 22 -1 5-4 NR
Boise State 23 -3 8-1 10
Missouri 24 2 5-5 NR
Michigan State 25 3 8-2 15

BCS: My offer still stands…….if you want to contact me you can send me a tweet @StatsInTheWild.

Cheers.

Wisconsin Badgers

Let’s get something straight right now.  Wisconsin is not a top 25 football team.  4 out of the 6 BCS computer polls have them outside of the top 25 and the other two polls have them at 24 and 16.  The clowns (meant with the utmost respect) who vote in the human polls have the Badgers ranked at 14 in both polls.  Let’s take a look at why the computers are right:

Wisconsin is 7-2 overall and 3-2 in the perennially (wildly) over-rated Big 10 (the conference with the worst division names in all of sports).  Wisconsin won its first 6 games over UNLV, Oregon State, Northern Illinois, South Dakota, Nebraska, and Indiana.  While Nebraska is a very impressive win, the 6 other teams they have beaten are currently 2-6 (MWC), 2-7 (PAC12), 6-3 (MAC), 5-4 (FCS-Great West), 1-9 (Big 10), 4-5 (Big 10).  I’m not impressed by any of those wins.  The three other games Wisconsin has played (Nebraska (7-2) , Michigan State (7-2), and Ohio State(6-3)), they have 1 win.  The W-L record of the their 7 victories is 27-36.  And if you remove Nebraska (which, as mentioned before, is actually an impressive win) there W-L for opponents in victories is 20-34.

Jeff Sagarin has Wisconsin’s strength of schedule ranked at 87.  The only BCS top 25 teams with weaker schedules that that are Houston (112), who plays in Conference USA, and Cincinnati (95) who plays in the Big “We still seriously get an automatic BCS bid?” East, (which sent a 4 loss UConn team to the Fiesta Bowl last year).  (“Most of the attention before the game focused on Oklahoma’s poor performance in past BCS games as well as Connecticut’s difficulties in selling tickets“.)

So, please Harris poll voters, I implore you to stop voting for teams like Wisconsin who don’t deserve to be in the top 25.  (And while you’re at it, stop voting for Cincinnati, too.)

Cheers.

1 vs 2

Alabama hosted LSU yesterday in what was billed as number 1 versus number 2.  This is a great way to market a football game, but it completely ignores reality.  6 out of 7 BCS computer polls, which the BCS itself has selected to rank college football teams, had Oklahoma State ranked number 1 heading into the LSU-Alabama game, and the lone dissenting system had Oklahoma State ranked number 2.  That means there were 0 computer rankings that had LSU-Alabama as a 1 vs 2 game.  I guess it’s just harder to market a 2 vs 3 game.

Cheers.

One More Arbitrary NCAA Football Ranking Scheme for the BCS – 11/6/2011

Rankings as of 11/6/2011.  Previous weeks rankings are here.

What a game last night between LSU and Alabama!  #FieldGoalsAreAwesome

I’ll update the BCS ranks when the new ones come out.

 Team Rank Change Record BCS Rank
Oklahoma State 1 0 9-0
LSU 2 1 9-0
Oklahoma 3 2 8-1
Alabama 4 0 8-1
Kansas St. 5 -3 7-2
Texas 6 6 6-2
Arkansas 7 3 8-1
Stanford 8 0 9-0
Oregon 9 4 8-1
Clemson 10 -4 8-1
South Carolina 11 -2 7-2
Virginia Tech 12 2 8-1
Baylor 13 3 5-3
Texas A&M 14 -7 5-4
Auburn 15 4 6-3
Penn State 16 1 8-1
Georgia 17 7 7-2
USC 18 -3 7-2
Houston 19 6 9-0
Boise State 20 1 8-0
Iowa State 21 11 5-4
Georgia Tech 22 0 7-2
Texas Tech 23 -12 5-4
Nebraska 24 -6 7-2
Michigan 25 -5 7-2

BCS: My offer still stands…….if you want to contact me you can send me a tweet @StatsInTheWild.

Cheers.

One More Arbitrary NCAA Football Ranking Scheme for the BCS – 11/1/2011

Rankings as of 11/1/2011.  The previous week’s rankings are here.

I apologize for not getting these rankings out until today (Tuesday), but we’re likely without power until Friday or Saturday.  I’m currently in the Western New England College University Law School library, which has power and heat.  Anyway……

There are 5 teams in the SITW top 25 that are not in the BCS top 25 (SITW Ranking):  Texas A&M (15), Texas Tech (18), USC (19), Baylor (21), Missouri (25).

Likewise, the five teams in the BCS top 25 that are not in the SITW top 25 are: Arizona State (26), Wisconsin (30), Michigan State (31), West Virginia (32), and Southern Miss (39).

Based on the disparity between the SITW rankings and the BCS rankings, the most over-rated top 25 BCS team is Boise State, followed by Michigan State and Southern Miss.  The most under-rated team is Texas, followed by Kansas State, Auburn, Oklahoma, and Clemson.

 Team Rank Change Record BCS Rank
Oklahoma State 1 0 8-0 3
Oklahoma 2 3 7-1 8
LSU 3 0 8-0 1
Alabama 4 0 8-0 2
Kansas State 5 -3 7-1 9
Stanford 6 2 8-0 5
Clemson 7 -1 8-1 16
South Carolina 8 1 7-1 6
Arkansas 9 1 7-1 13
Virginia Tech 10 4 8-1 10
Texas 11 1 5-2 20
Oregon 12 1 7-1 24
Nebraska 13 5 7-1 7
Penn State 14 3 8-1 12
Texas A&M 15 -8 5-3 NR
Michigan 16 4 7-1 NR
Auburn 17 2 6-3 19
Texas Tech 18 -7 5-3 14
USC 19 -4 6-2 23
Georgia Tech 20 2 7-2 18
Baylor 21 -5 4-3 4
Boise State 22 -1 7-0 NR
Georgia 23 1 6-2 15
Houston 24 1 8-0 22
Missouri 25 5 4-4 17

BCS: My offer still stands…….if you want to contact me you can send me a tweet @StatsInTheWild.

Cheers.