Category Archives: Football

NFL Picks Week 1

Week 1 – SU: 10-6-0 ATS: 8-8-0 O/U: 13-3-0

Green Bay at Seattle

Prediction: Seahawks 24-21 (57.9%)

Pick: Packers +6 (59.1%)

Total: Over 45

New Orleans at Atlanta

Prediction: New Orleans 25-24 (51.3%)

Pick: Saints +1 (54.2%)

Total: Under 52

Buffalo at Chicago

Prediction: Chicago 24-19 (64.3%)

Pick: Bills +6.5 (53.9%)

Total: Under 48.5

Washington at Houston

Prediction: Texans 24-20 (59.6%)

Pick: Texans -2.5 (52.5%)

Total: Under 45.5

Tennessee at Kansas City

Prediction: Chiefs 23-19 (61.0%)

Pick: Titans +6 (55.9%)

Total: Under 44

New England at Miami

Prediction: Patriots 26-22 (61.7%)

Pick: Patriots -4 (50.5%)

Total: Over 47

Oakland at NY Jets

Prediction: Jets 22-18 (59.2%)

Pick: Raiders +5.5 (56.3%)

Total: Over 39.5

Jacksonville at Philadelphia

Prediction: Eagles 28-18 (76.5%)

Pick: Jaguars +11 (52.6%)

Total: Under 52

Cleveland at Pittsburgh

Prediction: Pittsburgh 24-19 (64.6%)

Pick: Browns +6 (52.2%)

Total: Over 41

Minnesota at St. Louis

Prediction: Rams 22-20 (54.1%)

Pick: Vikings +6 (62.8%)

Total: Under 45

Cincinnati at Baltimore

Prediction: Ravens 22-20 (54.7%)

Pick: Bengals +2.5 (52.4%)

Total: Under 43.5

San Francisco at Dallas

Prediction: 49ers 22-21 (54.2%)

Pick: Cowboys +5 (59.9%)

Total: Under 49

Carolina at Tampa Bay

Prediction: Panthers 21-20 (53.8%)

Pick: Buccaneers +2 (51.9%)

Total: Over 40

Indianapolis at Denver

Prediction: Broncos 29-21 (71.4%)

Pick: Broncos -7.5 (51.1%)

Total: Under 55.5

San Diego at Arizona

Prediction: Chargers 22-21 (50.2%)

Pick: Chargers +3.5 (59.6%)

Total: Under 44.5

NY Giants at Detroit

Prediction: Lions 25-21 (60.2%)

Pick: Giants +4 (51.1%)

Total: Over 45.5

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World Cup shootouts infographic

Screen Shot 2014-06-04 at 4.49.47 PMCheers.

NFL Picks – Week 1

Overall Records

SU: (1-0)

ATS: (0-1)

O/U: (1-0)

Week 1 (1-0 SU, 0-1 ATS, 1-0 O/U)

September 5, 2013 – 8:30pm

Baltimore Ravens at Denver Broncos

Prediction: Broncos win 24-23

Pick: Ravens +8.5

OU: Over 47.5

September 8, 2013 – 1pm

New England Patriots at Buffalo Bills

Prediction: Patriots win 38-21

Pick: Patriots -7

OU: Over 51

Tennessee Titans at Pittsburgh Steelers

Prediction: Steelers win 25-17

Pick: Steelers -7

OU: Over 42

Atlanta Falcons at New Orleans Saints

Prediction: Falcons win 30-24

Pick: Falcons +3

OU: Over 53.5

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at New York Jets

Prediction: Buccaneers win 24-20

Pick: Buccaneers -2.5

OU: Over 40.5

Kansas City Chiefs at Jacksonville Jaguars

Prediction: Chiefs win 23-20

Pick: Jaguars +3.5

OU: Over 41

Cincinnati Bengals at Chicago Bears

Prediction: Bears win 21-17

Pick: Bengals +3.5

OU: Under 43.5

Miami Dolphins at Cleveland Browns

Prediction: Dolphins 20-19

Pick: Browns +1.5

OU: Under 41

Seattle Seahawks at Carolina Panthers

Prediction: Seahawks win 26-17

Pick: Seahawks -2.5

OU: Under 45.5

Minnesota Vikings at Detroit Lions

Prediction: Vikings win 27-24

Pick: Vikings +3.5

OU: Over 46

Oakland Raiders at Indianapolis Colts

Prediction: Colts win 27-22

Pick: Raiders +7

OU: over 47.5

September 8, 2013 – 4:25pm

St. Louis Rams at Arizona Cardinals

Rams win 21-16

Pick: Cardinals +6

OU: Under 41.5

Green Bay Packers at San Francisco 49ers

Prediction: 49ers win 26-20

Pick: 49ers -4

OU: Under 48

September 8, 2013 – 8:30pm

New York Giants at Dallas Cowboys

Prediction: Giants win 27-21

Pick: Giants +2.5

OU: Over 47.5

September 9, 2013 – 7:10pm

Philadelphia Eagles at Washington Redskins

Prediction: Redskins win 31-21

Pick: Redskins -4.5

OU: Over 47.5

September 9, 2013 – 10:20pm

Houston Texans at San Diego Chargers

Prediction: Texans win 25-19

Pick: Texans -3

OU: Over 44.5

NCAA Football Picks – Week 1

August 29, 2013

Akron at Central Florida

Prediction: Central Florida 38-20

Illinois State at Ball State

Prediction: Ball State 34-24

Kentucky at Western Kentucky

Prediction: Western Kentucky 25-23

Liberty at Kent State

Prediction: Kent State 28-21

North Carolina at South Carolina

Prediction: South Carolina 24-22

Rutgers at Fresno State

Prediction: Rutgers 21-20

Sacramento State at San Jose State

Prediction: San Jose State 35-19

Samford at Georgia State

Prediction: Georgia State 26-23

USC at Hawaii

Prediction: USC 36-13

Southern Utah at South Alabama

Prediction: South Alabama 27-21

Towson at UConn

Prediction: UConn 24-17

Tulsa at Bowling Green

Prediction: Tulsa 27-17

Utah State at Utah

Prediction: Utah State 24-19

Western Carolina at Middle Tennessee State

Prediction: Middle Tennessee State 36-21

August 30, 2013

Southern at Houston

Prediction: Houston 42-23

Texas Tech at SMU

Prediction: Texas Tech 30-23

August 31, 2013

UAB at Troy

Prediction: Troy 38-29

Austin Peay at Tennessee

Prediction: Tennessee 47-16

Boise State at Washington

Boise State 23-16

BYU at Virginia

Prediction: BYU 26-14

Buffalo at Ohio State

Prediction: Ohio State 34-14

Central Michigan at Michigan

Prediction: Michigan 35-19

Eastern Illinois at San Diego State

Prediction: San Diego State 40-17

Eastern Washington at Oregon State

Prediction: Oregon State 33-16

Elon at Georgia Tech

Prediction: Georgia Tech 44-14

FIU at Maryland

Prediction: Maryland 23-20

Georgia at Clemson

Prediction: Georgia 28-27

Howard at Eastern Michigan

Prediction: Eastern Michigan 27-25

Idaho at North Texas

Prediction: North Texas 34-22

Indiana at Indiana State

Prediction: Indiana 35-24

Jackson State at Tulane

Prediction: Jackson State 29-27

Louisiana Tech at NC State

Prediction: Louisiana Tech 37-33

Louisiana-Lafayette at Arkansas

Prediction: Arkansas 33-27

Louisiana-Monroe at Oklahoma

Prediction: Oklahoma 38-20

LSU at TCU

Prediction: TCU 17-16

Massachusetts at Wisconsin

Prediction: Wisconsin wins 43-7

McNeese State at South Florida

Prediction: South Florida 31-23

Mississippi at Vanderbilt

Prediction: Vanderbilt 24-23

Mississippi State at Oklahoma

Prediction: Oklahoma State 34-21

Morgan State at Army

Prediction: Army 54-17

Murray State at Missouri

Prediction: Missouri 40-10

Nevada at UCLA

Prediction: MUCL 37-33

UNLV at Minnesota

Prediction: Minnesota 30-19

New Mexico State at Texas

Prediction: Texas 41-13

Nicholls State at Oregon

Prediction: Oregon 58-10

North Carolina Central at Duke

Prediction: Duke 38-20

North Dakota State at Kansas State

Prediction: Kansas State 17-14

Northern Arizona at Arizona

Prediction: Arizona 43-19

Northern Illinois at Iowa

Prediction: Northern Illinois 23-19

Northern Iowa at Iowa State

Prediction: Iowa State 27-19

Northwestern at California

Prediction: Northwestern 31-23

Oklahoma State at Mississippi State

Prediction: Oklahoma State 34-33

Penn State at Syracuse

Prediction: Penn State 27-22

Presbyterian at Wake Forest

Prediction: Wake Forest 34-12

Purdue at Cincinnati

Prediction: Cincinnati 30-23

Rice at Texas A&M

Prediction: Texas A&M 48-20

Southern Illinois at Illinois

Prediction: Illinois 27-19

Temple at Notre Dame

Prediction: Notre Dame 30-12

Texas State at Southern Mississippi

Prediction: Southern Mississippi 28-27

Texas-San Antonio at New Mexico

Prediction: New Mexico 30-28

Toledo at Florida

Prediction: Florida 31-14

Villanova at Boston College

Prediction: Boston College 27-21

Virginia Tech at Alabama

Prediction: Alabama 26-9

Washington State at Auburn

Prediction: Auburn 28-19

Western Michigan at Michigan State

Prediction: Michigan State 28-17

William & Mary at West Virginia

West Virginia 35-17

Wofford at Baylor

Prediction: Baylor 45-27

Wyoming at Nebraska

Prediction: Nebraska 40-17

NFL Rankings – 10/23/2012

StatsInTheWild NFL rankings as of October 23, 2012 at 12:34pm.  SOS=strength of schedule

Team Rank Change Record ESPN TeamRankings.com SOS Points Diff
Chicago 1 5-1 5 1 8 +84
Houston 2 ↑2 6-1 2 (tie) 3 17 +88
San Francisco 3 ↓1 5-2 4 5 4 +65
Green Bay 4 ↑6 4-3 7 4 6 +29
Minnesota 5 ↑3 5-2 9 8 7 +36
Atlanta 6 ↓3 6-0 1 2 26 +58
NY Giants 7 ↓2 5-2 2 (tie) 6 22 +68
New England 8 ↑1 4-3 8 7 12 +54
Seattle 9 ↓2 4-3 11 10 5 +10
Arizona 10 ↓4 4-3 14 20 2 +6
St. Louis 11 ↑1 3-4 21 15 3 -11
Baltimore 12 ↓1 5-2 6 11 24 +13
Detroit 13 ↑1 2-4 19 12 1 -17
Miami 14 ↑1 3-3 16 17 14 +3
Denver 15 ↑1 3-3 12 9 30 +32
Washington 16 ↓3 3-4 18 18 18 +1
Dallas 17 ↑1 3-3 15 13 15 -20
NY Jets 18 ↓1 3-4 24 14 11 -11
Pittsburgh 19 ↑5 3-3 10 16 29 +8
Philadelphia 20 3-3 13 22 19 -22
Tampa Bay 21 ↓2 2-4 26 31 23 +12
Indianapolis 22 ↑5 3-3 23 21 16 -41
San Diego 23 3-3 17 23 32 +11
New Orleans 24 ↑2 2-4 20 26 21 -6
Buffalo 25 ↓2 3-4 27 24 13 -56
Cincinnati 26 ↓5 3-4 22 27 27 -21
Tennessee 27 ↑3 3-4 25 19 9 -89
Carolina 28 ↓3 1-5 29 29 20 -38
Jacksonville 29 ↓1 1-5 31 30 10 -76
Cleveland 30 ↓1 1-6 30 28 25 -33
Oakland 31 2-4 28 25 31 -58
Kansas City 32 1-5 32 32 28 -79

Best

Best team in the league: Chicago

Best undefeated team: Atlanta

Best 5 win team: Chicago

Best 4 win team: Green Bay

Best 3 win team: St. Louis

Best 2 win team: Detroit

Best 1 win team: Carolina

Worst

Worst 5 win team: Baltimore

Worst 4 win team: Arizona

Worst 3 win team: Tennessee

Worst 2 win team: Oakland

Worst 1 win team: Kansas City

Worst team in the league: Kansas City

Most

Most under-rated team: (#11) St. Louis (ESPN has them 21)

Most over-rated team: (#19) Pittsburgh (ESPN has them 10)

Cheers.

↓3

NFL Predictions – Week 7

Overall Records for 2012

SU: 64-40

ATS: 57-47

O/U: 56-46

Week 7 (11-2 SU, 6-7 ATS, 6-7 O/U)

Week 6 (6-8 SU, 7-7 ATS, 6-7 O/U)

Week 5 (10-4 SU, 7-7 ATS, 7-7 O/U)

Week 4 (10-5 SU, 10-5 ATS, 12-2 O/U)

Week 3 (5-11 SU, 9-7 ATS, 9-7 O/U)

Week 2 (11-5 SU, 9-7 ATS, 8-8 O/U)

Week 1 (11-5 SU, 9-7 ATS, 8-8 O/U)

Week 7

Thursday @8:05pm

Seattle Seahawks at San Francisco 49ers

Prediction: 49ers win 28-20

Pick: 49ers -7.5

O/U: Over 37.5

Sunday @1pm

Tennessee Titans at Buffalo Bills

Prediction: Bills win 23-22

Pick: Titans +3.5

O/U: Under 45.5

Arizona Cardinals at Minnesota Vikings

Prediction: Vikings win 25-23

Pick: Cardinals +5.5

O/U:  Over 40.5

Cleveland Browns at Indianapolis Colts

Prediction: Colts win 23-17

Pick: Colts -3

O/U: Under 44.5

Baltimore Ravens at Houston Texans

Prediction: Ravens win 26-24

Pick: Ravens +6.5

O/U: Over 48

Green Bay Packers at St. Louis Rams

Prediction: Packers win 30-17

Pick: Packers -5.5

O/U: Over 45

Dallas Cowboys at Carolina Panthers

Prediction: Cowboys win 25-21

Pick:  Cowboys -2

O/U: Over 45.5

Washington Redskins at New York Giants

Prediction: Giants win 28-22

Pick: Redskins +6.5

O/U: Over 49.5

New Orleans Saints at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Prediction: Saints win 32-20

Pick: Saints -2.5

O/U: Over 49

Sunday @4:25pm

New York Jets at New England Patriots

Prediction: Patriots win 35-20

Pick: Patriots -10.5

O/U: Over 47

Sunday @4:25pm

Jacksonville Jaguars at Oakland Raiders

Prediction: Raiders win 21-16

Pick: Raiders -4

O/U: Under 43

Sunday @8:30pm

Pittsburgh Steelers at Cincinnati Bengals

Prediction: Steelers win 24-23

Pick: Bengals +2.5

O/U: Over 46

Monday @8:40pm

Detroit Lions at Chicago Bears

Prediction: Bears win 28-26

Pick: Lions +5.5

O/U: Over 47.5

Cheers.

NFL Rankings – 10/17/2012

StatsInTheWild NFL rankings as of October 17, 2012 at 12:34pm.  SOS=strength of schedule

Team Rank Change Record ESPN TeamRankings.com SOS Points Diff
Chicago 1 ↑1 4-1 6 1 8 +78
San Francisco 2 ↓1 4-2 5 6 3 +58
Atlanta 3 ↑4 6-0 1 2 25 +58
Houston 4 ↓1 5-1 2 4 21 +58
NY Giants 5 ↑7 4-2 3 3 17 +64
Arizona 6 ↓1 4-2 11 12 1 +13
Seattle 7 ↑2 4-2 9 5 5 +17
Minnesota 8 ↓4 4-2 10 11 7 +29
New England 9 ↓3 3-3 7 8 10 +51
Green Bay 10 ↑1 3-3 8 7 6 +19
Baltimore 11 ↓1 5-1 4 9 26 +43
St. Louis 12 ↓4 3-3 20 10 2 -1
Washington 13 ↑9 3-3 15 17 13 +5
Detroit 14 ↓1 2-3 19 19 4 -11
Miami 15 ↓1 3-3 17 14 16 +3
Denver 16 ↑2 3-3 12 13 31 +32
NY Jets 17 3-3 23 18 12 -8
Dallas 18 ↓2 2-3 18 15 9 -25
Tampa Bay 19 ↑6 2-3 22 24 23 +19
Philadelphia 20 3-3 13 20 11 -22
Cincinnati 21 ↓2 3-3 21 21 28 -14
Buffalo 22 ↑2 3-3 25 16 15 -55
San Diego 23 ↓2 3-3 16 27 32 +11
Pittsburgh 24 ↓1 2-3 14 23 27 +1
Carolina 25 ↑3 1-4 28 28 19 -33
New Orleans 26 ↑1 1-4 24 31 20 -13
Indianapolis 27 ↓12 2-3 26 22 22 -45
Jacksonville 28 ↓2 1-4 31 29 18 -73
Cleveland 29 ↑3 1-5 30 26 24 -29
Tennessee 30 ↓1 2-4 27 25 14 -90
Oakland 31 ↓1 1-4 29 30 30 -61
Kansas City 32 ↓1 1-5 32 32 29 -79

Best

Best undefeated team: Atlanta

Best 5 win team: Houston

Best 4 win team: Chicago

Best 3 win team: New England

Best 2 win team: Detroit

Best 1 win team: Carolina

Worst

Worst 5 win team: Baltimore

Worst 4 win team: Minnesota

Worst 3 win team: San Diego

Worst 2 win team: Tennessee

Worst 1 win team: Kansas City

Worst team in the league: Kansas City

Most

Most under-rated team: (#12) St. Louis (ESPN has them 20)

Most over-rated team: (#24) Pittsburgh (ESPN has them 14)

Cheers.

NFL Graph Theory

So far this year:

New England beat Tennessee; Tennessee beat Detroit; Detroit beat Philadelphia, Philadelphia beat the NY Giants; the Giants beat Carolina; Carolina beat New Orleans; New Orleans beat San Diego; San Diego beat Oakland; Oakland beat Pittsburgh; Pittsburgh beat the NY Jets beat Indianapolis; Indianapolis beat Minnesota; Minnesota beat San Francisco; SAn Francisco beat Green Bay; Green Bay beat Chicago; Chicago beat St. Louis; and St. Louis beat Arizona; who beat the Patriots.

Here’s a directed graph of the entire NFL so far this year with the cycle I described about highlighted in think black edges.  Node size is proportional to the number of team wins, and the colored groups are the divisions.

Cheers.

NCAA Football Rankings – 10/14/2012

 
Rank Team Record
1 ALABAMA 6-0
2 OKLAHOMA 4-1
3 KANSAS STATE 6-0
4 TEXAS TECH 5-1
5 OREGON 6-0
6 NOTRE DAME 6-0
7 FLORIDA 6-0
8 SO CAROLINA 6-1
9 OREGON STATE 5-0
10 TCU 5-1
11 TEXAS A&M 5-1
12 IOWA STATE 4-2
13 TEXAS 4-2
14 LSU 6-1
15 WEST VIRGINIA 5-1
16 MISS STATE 6-0
17 OHIO STATE 7-0
18 USC 5-1
19 FLORIDA STATE 6-1
20 ARIZONA STATE 5-1
21 STANFORD 4-2
22 OKLAHOMA STATE 3-2
23 GEORGIA 5-1
24 BAYLOR 3-2
25 RUTGERS 6-0
26 LOUISVILLE 6-0
27 MICHIGAN 4-2
28 CINCINNATI 5-0
29 UCLA 5-2
30 ARIZONA 3-3
31 WISCONSIN 5-2
32 CLEMSON 5-1
33 PENN STATE 4-2
34 NORTHWESTERN 6-1
35 IOWA 4-2
36 NORTH CAROLINA 5-2
37 NEVADA 6-1
38 CALIFORNIA 3-4
39 LOUISIANA TECH 5-1
40 OLE MISS 4-3
41 NEBRASKA 4-2
42 MICHIGAN STATE 4-3
43 ARKANSAS 3-4
44 UTAH STATE 5-2
45 BOISE STATE 5-1
46 ULM 4-2
47 MARYLAND 4-2
48 WASHINGTON 3-3
49 TENNESSEE 3-3
50 WESTERN KY 5-1
51 NORTHERN ILL 6-1
52 TULSA 6-1
53 BYU 4-3
54 FRESNO STATE 4-3
55 MIAMI-FLORIDA 4-3
56 VIRGINIA TECH 4-3
57 MISSOURI 3-4
58 TOLEDO 6-1
59 DUKE 5-2
60 LOUISIANA 4-1
61 MIDDLE TENNESSEE 4-2
62 OHIO U 7-0
63 KANSAS 1-5
64 MINNESOTA 4-2
65 TEMPLE 3-2
66 PITTSBURGH 2-4
67 NC STATE 4-2
68 SAN JOSE ST 4-2
69 PURDUE 3-3
70 NEW MEXICO 4-3
71 UTAH 2-4
72 UCF 4-2
73 SAN DIEGO ST 4-3
74 SYRACUSE 2-4
75 KENTUCKY 1-6
76 TEXAS STATE 3-3
77 AUBURN 1-5
78 WAKE FOREST 3-3
79 TROY 3-3
80 VANDERBILT 2-4
81 INDIANA 2-4
82 GEORGIA TECH 2-4
83 KENT STATE 5-1
84 CONNECTICUT 3-4
85 HOUSTON 3-3
86 SO FLORIDA 2-4
87 WASHINGTON ST 2-5
88 ARKANSAS STATE 4-3
89 BALL STATE 4-3
90 NAVY 3-3
91 WYOMING 1-5
92 AIR FORCE 3-3
93 EAST CAROLINA 4-3
94 BOWLING GREEN 4-3
95 ILLINOIS 2-5
96 SMU 2-4
97 NORTH TEXAS 2-4
98 TX-SAN ANTONIO 5-1
99 COLORADO 1-5
100 BOSTON COLLEGE 1-5
101 VIRGINIA 2-5
102 UNLV 1-6
103 MARSHALL 2-4
104 WESTERN MICH 3-4
105 RICE 2-5
106 FLA ATLANTIC 1-5
107 ARMY 1-5
108 IDAHO 1-6
109 MIAMI-OHIO 3-4
110 TEXAS-EL PASO 1-6
111 FIU 1-6
112 UAB 1-5
113 SOUTH ALABAMA 1-5
114 COLORADO STATE 1-6
115 TULANE 1-5
116 BUFFALO 1-5
117 CENTRAL MICH 2-4
118 MEMPHIS 1-5
119 HAWAII 1-5
120 SOUTHERN MISS 0-6
121 EASTERN MICH 0-6
122 NEW MEXICO ST 1-5
123 AKRON 1-6
124 MASSACHUSETTS 0-6

Week 5 QB Performances Reviewed Via RIPPEN

An explanation of RIPPEN

Alex Smith led the way in quarterback performances this week with an astonishing RIPPEN just over 43, and Blaine Gabbert continues to dwell at the bottom of all of my tables with a RIPPEN just above 3.

RIPPEN rankings for week 5 performances:

Player Team RIPPEN QB rating
Smith, A. SF 43.014 156.2
Tannehill, R. MIA 34.387 92.3
Brady, T. NE 28.045 104.6
Rivers, P. SD 26.194 96.7
Cutler, J. CHI 24.361 88.8
Brees, D. NO 22.586 110.4
Wilson, R. SEA 21.676 82.2
Rodgers, A. GB 19.363 103.5
Ryan, M. ATL 19.293 89.0
Schaub, M. TEX 19.174 71.9
Weeden, B. CLE 17.863 84.3
Griffin, III, R. WAS 17.237 82.9
Manning, P. DEN 17.206 116.2
Luck, A. IND 15.959 81.0
Ponder, C. MIN 15.934 87.6
Manning, E. NYG 15.532 103.3
Flacco, J. BAL 13.647 55.6
Sanchez, M. NYJ 12.100 54.5
Vick, M. PHI 11.185 104.2
Kolb, K. ARI 10.787 72.7
Roethlisberger, B. PIT 8.572 80.1
Bradford, S. STL 8.025 69.7
Newton, C. CAR 7.107 56.8
Cassel, M. KC 5.758 38.1
Dalton. A. CIN 5.575 63.5
Hasselbeck, M. TEN 5.386 69.9
Fitzpatrick, R. BUF 4.217 57.5
Gabbert, B. JAX 3.096 37.7

Looking at RIPPEN based on the whole season, Tom Brady is ranked number 1 with a RIPPEN of 27.304, which is essentially the same as RGIII’s RIPPEN of 27.279.  The top five is rounded out by Payton Manning, Alex Smith, and Matt Ryan.  My RIPPEN top five is the exact same top five as sorted by season QB rating, but in a different order.  QB rating has the top five guys ranked Smith, Ryan, Brady, Manning, RGIII.

The bottom five according to RIPPEN are Weeden, Kolb, Cassel, Gabbert, and, dead last, Matt Hasselbeck.  QB rating has three of these quarterbacks in the bottom five (Weeden, Cassel, and Gabbert), but by QB rating Sanchez and Tannehill are also in the bottom five.  I have Tannehill 19th and Sanchez 25th out of 32 quarterbacks.

As for most over and under rated quarterbacks, I regressed QB rating as a function of RIPPEN and, as expected, they are highly related.  (QB rating is approximately 58 + 1.63*RIPPEN).  However, there are some large deviations.  The most under-rated quarterback based on QB rating is Cam Newton.  His QB rating is only 80.9, but, based on RIPPEN, we’d expect him to have a QB rating about 16 points higher around 97.  Other under-rated quarterbacks include Ryan Tannehill who is about 14 points lower than expected and Mark Sanchez who is about 11 points lower than expected.  (But don’t get me wrong here, I still think Sanchez is a terrible quarterback.  I just don’t think he is the 30th best quarterback in the league, I think he’s 25th.)

The most over-rated QB based on passer rating is Kevin Kolb.  Based on his passer rating, he is ranked 16th among quarterbacks, but RIPPEN has him ranking 29th.  Based on his RIPPEN, his expected QB rating is 75.3 about 14 points lower than it actually is.  This is likely do to the weight that passer rating gives to touchdown passes.  The next two most over-rated QB’s are Ben Roethlisberger and Eli Manning.  Roethlisberger has a QB rating about 11 points higher than we would expect and Manning is about 10 points higher than expected.

Season RIPPEN rankings through five weeks of games:

Player Team RIPPEN QB rating
Brady, T. NE 27.304 102.8
Griffin, III, R. WAS 27.279 101.0
Manning, P. DEN 26.905 101.2
Smith, A. SF 25.630 108.7
Ryan, M. ATL 24.263 106.1
Newton, C. CAR 23.978 80.9
Schaub, M. HOU 23.689 99.2
Ponder, C. MIN 20.393 95.5
Rodgers, A. GB 19.697 97.0
Rivers, P. SD 19.654 93.1
Roethlisberger, B. PIT 19.131 100.6
Dalton, A. CIN 19.091 92.9
Brees, D. NO 18.720 90.7
Cutler, J. CHI 18.243 78.7
Stafford, M. DET 17.664 81.6
Manning, E. NYG 16.843 96.0
Luck, A. IND 16.770 77.1
Flacco, J. BAL 16.380 89.9
Tannehill, R. MIA 16.245 70.4
Romo, T. DAL 15.928 78.5
Vick, M. PHI 15.780 77.8
Bradford, S. STL 14.544 78.6
Palmer, C. OAK 13.065 86.0
Freeman, J. TB 12.533 75.3
Sanchez, M. NYJ 11.917 66.6
Wilson, R. SEA 10.782 75.2
Fitzpatrick, R. BUF 10.761 84.2
Weeden, B. CLE 10.465 64.5
Kolb, K. ARI 10.417 89.7
Cassel, M. KC 8.357 66.2
Gabbert, B. JAX 6.678 73.3
Hasselbeck, M. TEN 5.606 73.6

And finally, below is a plot of estimated outcome percentages that are used in calculating RIPPEN.  If you look at Peyton Manning in the upper right corner of the plot you can see that starting from his own 20 yard line and only throwing passes in a simulated world, hell score a touchdown about 32% of the time and convert a field goal about 16% of the time.  So he’d score on around 48% of drives. Compare this with Blaine Gabbert who will score a touchdown on about 6% of drives and get a filed goal about 9% of drives.  This means that 85% of Gabbert drives, in the simulated RIPPEN world, end in either a punt, an interception, or a missed field goal.

Cheers.