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Category Archives: NCAA

NCAA Football Picks – Week 1

August 29, 2013

Akron at Central Florida

Prediction: Central Florida 38-20

Illinois State at Ball State

Prediction: Ball State 34-24

Kentucky at Western Kentucky

Prediction: Western Kentucky 25-23

Liberty at Kent State

Prediction: Kent State 28-21

North Carolina at South Carolina

Prediction: South Carolina 24-22

Rutgers at Fresno State

Prediction: Rutgers 21-20

Sacramento State at San Jose State

Prediction: San Jose State 35-19

Samford at Georgia State

Prediction: Georgia State 26-23

USC at Hawaii

Prediction: USC 36-13

Southern Utah at South Alabama

Prediction: South Alabama 27-21

Towson at UConn

Prediction: UConn 24-17

Tulsa at Bowling Green

Prediction: Tulsa 27-17

Utah State at Utah

Prediction: Utah State 24-19

Western Carolina at Middle Tennessee State

Prediction: Middle Tennessee State 36-21

August 30, 2013

Southern at Houston

Prediction: Houston 42-23

Texas Tech at SMU

Prediction: Texas Tech 30-23

August 31, 2013

UAB at Troy

Prediction: Troy 38-29

Austin Peay at Tennessee

Prediction: Tennessee 47-16

Boise State at Washington

Boise State 23-16

BYU at Virginia

Prediction: BYU 26-14

Buffalo at Ohio State

Prediction: Ohio State 34-14

Central Michigan at Michigan

Prediction: Michigan 35-19

Eastern Illinois at San Diego State

Prediction: San Diego State 40-17

Eastern Washington at Oregon State

Prediction: Oregon State 33-16

Elon at Georgia Tech

Prediction: Georgia Tech 44-14

FIU at Maryland

Prediction: Maryland 23-20

Georgia at Clemson

Prediction: Georgia 28-27

Howard at Eastern Michigan

Prediction: Eastern Michigan 27-25

Idaho at North Texas

Prediction: North Texas 34-22

Indiana at Indiana State

Prediction: Indiana 35-24

Jackson State at Tulane

Prediction: Jackson State 29-27

Louisiana Tech at NC State

Prediction: Louisiana Tech 37-33

Louisiana-Lafayette at Arkansas

Prediction: Arkansas 33-27

Louisiana-Monroe at Oklahoma

Prediction: Oklahoma 38-20

LSU at TCU

Prediction: TCU 17-16

Massachusetts at Wisconsin

Prediction: Wisconsin wins 43-7

McNeese State at South Florida

Prediction: South Florida 31-23

Mississippi at Vanderbilt

Prediction: Vanderbilt 24-23

Mississippi State at Oklahoma

Prediction: Oklahoma State 34-21

Morgan State at Army

Prediction: Army 54-17

Murray State at Missouri

Prediction: Missouri 40-10

Nevada at UCLA

Prediction: MUCL 37-33

UNLV at Minnesota

Prediction: Minnesota 30-19

New Mexico State at Texas

Prediction: Texas 41-13

Nicholls State at Oregon

Prediction: Oregon 58-10

North Carolina Central at Duke

Prediction: Duke 38-20

North Dakota State at Kansas State

Prediction: Kansas State 17-14

Northern Arizona at Arizona

Prediction: Arizona 43-19

Northern Illinois at Iowa

Prediction: Northern Illinois 23-19

Northern Iowa at Iowa State

Prediction: Iowa State 27-19

Northwestern at California

Prediction: Northwestern 31-23

Oklahoma State at Mississippi State

Prediction: Oklahoma State 34-33

Penn State at Syracuse

Prediction: Penn State 27-22

Presbyterian at Wake Forest

Prediction: Wake Forest 34-12

Purdue at Cincinnati

Prediction: Cincinnati 30-23

Rice at Texas A&M

Prediction: Texas A&M 48-20

Southern Illinois at Illinois

Prediction: Illinois 27-19

Temple at Notre Dame

Prediction: Notre Dame 30-12

Texas State at Southern Mississippi

Prediction: Southern Mississippi 28-27

Texas-San Antonio at New Mexico

Prediction: New Mexico 30-28

Toledo at Florida

Prediction: Florida 31-14

Villanova at Boston College

Prediction: Boston College 27-21

Virginia Tech at Alabama

Prediction: Alabama 26-9

Washington State at Auburn

Prediction: Auburn 28-19

Western Michigan at Michigan State

Prediction: Michigan State 28-17

William & Mary at West Virginia

West Virginia 35-17

Wofford at Baylor

Prediction: Baylor 45-27

Wyoming at Nebraska

Prediction: Nebraska 40-17

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NCAA Football Rankings – 10/14/2012

 
Rank Team Record
1 ALABAMA 6-0
2 OKLAHOMA 4-1
3 KANSAS STATE 6-0
4 TEXAS TECH 5-1
5 OREGON 6-0
6 NOTRE DAME 6-0
7 FLORIDA 6-0
8 SO CAROLINA 6-1
9 OREGON STATE 5-0
10 TCU 5-1
11 TEXAS A&M 5-1
12 IOWA STATE 4-2
13 TEXAS 4-2
14 LSU 6-1
15 WEST VIRGINIA 5-1
16 MISS STATE 6-0
17 OHIO STATE 7-0
18 USC 5-1
19 FLORIDA STATE 6-1
20 ARIZONA STATE 5-1
21 STANFORD 4-2
22 OKLAHOMA STATE 3-2
23 GEORGIA 5-1
24 BAYLOR 3-2
25 RUTGERS 6-0
26 LOUISVILLE 6-0
27 MICHIGAN 4-2
28 CINCINNATI 5-0
29 UCLA 5-2
30 ARIZONA 3-3
31 WISCONSIN 5-2
32 CLEMSON 5-1
33 PENN STATE 4-2
34 NORTHWESTERN 6-1
35 IOWA 4-2
36 NORTH CAROLINA 5-2
37 NEVADA 6-1
38 CALIFORNIA 3-4
39 LOUISIANA TECH 5-1
40 OLE MISS 4-3
41 NEBRASKA 4-2
42 MICHIGAN STATE 4-3
43 ARKANSAS 3-4
44 UTAH STATE 5-2
45 BOISE STATE 5-1
46 ULM 4-2
47 MARYLAND 4-2
48 WASHINGTON 3-3
49 TENNESSEE 3-3
50 WESTERN KY 5-1
51 NORTHERN ILL 6-1
52 TULSA 6-1
53 BYU 4-3
54 FRESNO STATE 4-3
55 MIAMI-FLORIDA 4-3
56 VIRGINIA TECH 4-3
57 MISSOURI 3-4
58 TOLEDO 6-1
59 DUKE 5-2
60 LOUISIANA 4-1
61 MIDDLE TENNESSEE 4-2
62 OHIO U 7-0
63 KANSAS 1-5
64 MINNESOTA 4-2
65 TEMPLE 3-2
66 PITTSBURGH 2-4
67 NC STATE 4-2
68 SAN JOSE ST 4-2
69 PURDUE 3-3
70 NEW MEXICO 4-3
71 UTAH 2-4
72 UCF 4-2
73 SAN DIEGO ST 4-3
74 SYRACUSE 2-4
75 KENTUCKY 1-6
76 TEXAS STATE 3-3
77 AUBURN 1-5
78 WAKE FOREST 3-3
79 TROY 3-3
80 VANDERBILT 2-4
81 INDIANA 2-4
82 GEORGIA TECH 2-4
83 KENT STATE 5-1
84 CONNECTICUT 3-4
85 HOUSTON 3-3
86 SO FLORIDA 2-4
87 WASHINGTON ST 2-5
88 ARKANSAS STATE 4-3
89 BALL STATE 4-3
90 NAVY 3-3
91 WYOMING 1-5
92 AIR FORCE 3-3
93 EAST CAROLINA 4-3
94 BOWLING GREEN 4-3
95 ILLINOIS 2-5
96 SMU 2-4
97 NORTH TEXAS 2-4
98 TX-SAN ANTONIO 5-1
99 COLORADO 1-5
100 BOSTON COLLEGE 1-5
101 VIRGINIA 2-5
102 UNLV 1-6
103 MARSHALL 2-4
104 WESTERN MICH 3-4
105 RICE 2-5
106 FLA ATLANTIC 1-5
107 ARMY 1-5
108 IDAHO 1-6
109 MIAMI-OHIO 3-4
110 TEXAS-EL PASO 1-6
111 FIU 1-6
112 UAB 1-5
113 SOUTH ALABAMA 1-5
114 COLORADO STATE 1-6
115 TULANE 1-5
116 BUFFALO 1-5
117 CENTRAL MICH 2-4
118 MEMPHIS 1-5
119 HAWAII 1-5
120 SOUTHERN MISS 0-6
121 EASTERN MICH 0-6
122 NEW MEXICO ST 1-5
123 AKRON 1-6
124 MASSACHUSETTS 0-6

NCAA Football Rankings – 10/1/2012

 
Teams records
1 ALABAMA 5-0
2 TEXAS 4-0
3 TEXAS TECH 4-0
4 KANSAS STATE 4-0
5 OREGON 5-0
6 WEST VIRGINIA 4-0
7 LSU 5-0
8 SO CAROLINA 5-0
9 GEORGIA 5-0
10 TCU 4-0
11 FLORIDA 4-0
12 FLORIDA STATE 5-0
13 OREGON STATE 3-0
14 NOTRE DAME 4-0
15 STANFORD 3-1
16 IOWA STATE 3-1
17 ARIZONA STATE 4-1
18 BAYLOR 3-1
19 TEXAS A&M 3-1
20 OKLAHOMA 2-1
21 MISS STATE 4-0
22 USC 3-1
23 UCLA 4-1
24 OKLAHOMA STATE 2-2
25 OHIO STATE 5-0
26 NORTHWESTERN 5-0
27 ARIZONA 3-2
28 CLEMSON 4-1
29 NEBRASKA 4-1
30 LOUISVILLE 5-0
31 MIAMI-FLORIDA 4-1
32 WASHINGTON 3-1
33 CINCINNATI 3-0
34 TENNESSEE 3-2
35 LOUISIANA TECH 4-0
36 IOWA 3-2
37 MISSOURI 3-2
38 PURDUE 3-1
39 MICHIGAN STATE 3-2
40 MIDDLE TENNESSEE 3-1
41 PENN STATE 3-2
42 BYU 3-2
43 UTAH STATE 4-1
44 NEVADA 4-1
45 OLE MISS 3-2
46 DUKE 4-1
47 MICHIGAN 2-2
48 RUTGERS 4-0
49 WISCONSIN 3-2
50 NORTH CAROLINA 3-2
51 SAN JOSE ST 4-1
52 FRESNO STATE 3-2
53 MINNESOTA 4-1
54 KANSAS 1-3
55 VIRGINIA TECH 3-2
56 WESTERN KY 4-1
57 PITTSBURGH 2-2
58 UTAH 2-2
59 AUBURN 1-3
60 MARYLAND 2-2
61 BOISE STATE 3-1
62 GEORGIA TECH 2-3
63 NC STATE 3-2
64 OHIO U 5-0
65 TX-SAN ANTONIO 5-0
66 KENTUCKY 1-4
67 TOLEDO 4-1
68 LOUISIANA 3-1
69 WASHINGTON ST 2-3
70 NORTHERN ILL 4-1
71 INDIANA 2-2
72 CONNECTICUT 3-2
73 WAKE FOREST 3-2
74 TROY 3-2
75 CALIFORNIA 1-4
76 ULM 2-2
77 VANDERBILT 1-3
78 SYRACUSE 1-3
79 TULSA 4-1
80 SO FLORIDA 2-3
81 ARKANSAS 1-4
82 TEXAS STATE 2-2
83 BALL STATE 3-2
84 BOSTON COLLEGE 1-3
85 WYOMING 1-3
86 ILLINOIS 2-3
87 VIRGINIA 2-3
88 NEW MEXICO 2-3
89 NORTH TEXAS 2-3
90 AIR FORCE 2-2
91 SAN DIEGO ST 2-3
92 UCF 2-2
93 TEMPLE 1-2
94 COLORADO 1-4
95 UNLV 1-4
96 KENT STATE 3-1
97 ARKANSAS STATE 2-3
98 EAST CAROLINA 3-2
99 MIAMI-OHIO 3-2
100 MARSHALL 2-3
101 FLA ATLANTIC 1-4
102 COLORADO STATE 1-4
103 HOUSTON 1-3
104 NAVY 1-3
105 WESTERN MICH 2-3
106 BOWLING GREEN 2-3
107 SMU 1-3
108 BUFFALO 1-3
109 TEXAS-EL PASO 1-4
110 SOUTH ALABAMA 1-4
111 FIU 1-4
112 IDAHO 0-5
113 CENTRAL MICH 2-2
114 HAWAII 1-3
115 EASTERN MICH 0-4
116 ARMY 0-4
117 UAB 0-4
118 RICE 1-4
119 SOUTHERN MISS 0-4
120 NEW MEXICO ST 1-4
121 MEMPHIS 0-4
122 AKRON 1-4
123 TULANE 0-4
124 MASSACHUSETTS 0-5

 

NCAA Football Rankings – 9/17/2012

NCAA Football Rankings after week 3 as of 9/17/2012 at 6:13am

 

Rank

Team

Record

1 TEXAS  3-0
2 TEXAS TECH  3-0
3 KANSAS STATE  3-0
4 ALABAMA  3-0
5 LSU  3-0
6 IOWA STATE  3-0
7 ARIZONA  3-0
8 STANFORD  3-0
9 OKLAHOMA  2-0
10 TCU  2-0
11 WEST VIRGINIA  2-0
12 BAYLOR  2-0
13 GEORGIA  3-0
14 SO CAROLINA  3-0
15 NOTRE DAME  3-0
16 OREGON  3-0
17 FLORIDA  3-0
18 OKLAHOMA STATE  2-1
19 UCLA  3-0
20 USC  2-1
21 MISS STATE  3-0
22 OREGON STATE  1-0
23 OHIO STATE  3-0
24 ARIZONA STATE  2-1
25 NORTHWESTERN  3-0
26 FLORIDA STATE  3-0
27 CLEMSON  3-0
28 TEXAS A&M  1-1
29 NEBRASKA  2-1
30 LOUISVILLE  3-0
31 CINCINNATI  2-0
32 MICHIGAN  2-1
33 MISSOURI  2-1
34 KANSAS  1-2
35 GEORGIA TECH  2-1
36 WASHINGTON  2-1
37 TENNESSEE  2-1
38 MINNESOTA  3-0
39 OLE MISS  2-1
40 BYU  2-1
41 MICHIGAN STATE  2-1
42 UTAH  2-1
43 RUTGERS  3-0
44 PURDUE  2-1
45 MARYLAND  2-1
46 WISCONSIN  2-1
47 NC STATE  2-1
48 IOWA  2-1
49 CONNECTICUT  2-1
50 WASHINGTON ST  2-1
51 KENTUCKY  1-2
52 MIAMI-FLORIDA  2-1
53 LOUISIANA TECH  2-0
54 INDIANA  2-1
55 FRESNO STATE  2-1
56 SAN JOSE ST  2-1
57 PITTSBURGH  1-2
58 CALIFORNIA  1-2
59 ILLINOIS  2-1
60 MIDDLE TENNESSEE  2-1
61 OHIO U  3-0
62 AUBURN  1-2
63 UTAH STATE  2-1
64 PENN STATE  1-2
65 ARKANSAS  1-2
66 SYRACUSE  1-2
67 DUKE  2-1
68 SO FLORIDA  2-1
69 NEVADA  2-1
70 VANDERBILT  1-2
71 VIRGINIA TECH  2-1
72 SAN DIEGO ST  2-1
73 BOISE STATE  1-1
74 TOLEDO  2-1
75 UCF  2-1
76 TEMPLE  1-1
77 TX-SAN ANTONIO  3-0
78 VIRGINIA  2-1
79 TULSA  2-1
80 BOSTON COLLEGE  1-2
81 TEXAS STATE  1-1
82 WAKE FOREST  2-1
83 NORTH CAROLINA  1-2
84 ULM  1-1
85 COLORADO  0-3
86 BALL STATE  2-1
87 LOUISIANA  2-1
88 COLORADO STATE  1-2
89 WESTERN KY  2-1
90 WYOMING  0-3
91 UNLV  0-3
92 HAWAII  1-1
93 NEW MEXICO  1-2
94 AIR FORCE  1-1
95 TEXAS-EL PASO  1-2
96 NORTH TEXAS  1-2
97 BUFFALO  1-1
98 TROY  1-2
99 NORTHERN ILL  2-1
100 EAST CAROLINA  2-1
101 ARKANSAS STATE  1-2
102 IDAHO  0-3
103 BOWLING GREEN  1-2
104 SOUTH ALABAMA  1-2
105 FLA ATLANTIC  1-2
106 MARSHALL  1-2
107 RICE  1-2
108 FIU  1-2
109 NEW MEXICO ST  1-2
110 SMU  1-2
111 WESTERN MICH  1-2
112 NAVY  0-2
113 KENT STATE  1-1
114 ARMY  0-2
115 CENTRAL MICH  1-1
116 SOUTHERN MISS  0-2
117 UAB  0-2
118 EASTERN MICH  0-3
119 MEMPHIS  0-3
120 TULANE  0-2
121 HOUSTON  0-3
122 MIAMI-OHIO  1-2
123 AKRON  1-2
124 MASSACHUSETTS  0-3

Cheers.

A novel way to gamble on the NCAA tournament…

I saw a talk at JSM where I was introduced to a fun new (well, new to me) game to play during the NCAA tournament.  First, teams are assigned a price based on their seed.  This can be done in many ways, but it was set in the talk that the one seeds cost 25 cents, the two seeds cost 19 cents, all the way down to the 15 and 16 seeds which were a penny each.  The goal is to choose a set of teams, that costs, in total, one dollar, that will win the most number of games in the NCAA tournament.  So picking all the number one seeds, which will cost exactly one dollar, but the most wins they can earn is 19 (4 each to the final four and then one each for the two semifinals and one for the championship).  So, according to the speaker, this usually won’t get you the win.  First of all, this game is awesome.  Once you can stop thinking about how awesome this game is, the next logical question is: How do you choose the optimal set of teams?

Douglas Noe and his student Geng Chen used an evolutionary algorithm to optimize the selection of teams, and they used Ken Pomeroy’s rankings as a guide to the probability that one team will beat another team in the tournament.  Now, I don’t think I ever heard of evolutionary algorithms, and, if I have, I’ve totally forgotten about them.  But they are wicked cool.    Here is the wikipedia page for evolutionary algorithms, and it’s worth checking out.  Does anyone have any suggestions as to a good resource for an introduction to evolutionary algorithms?

Cheers.

Madness Coefficient and Cinderella Plot updated through the Final Four

Time Series and the Final Four

MDS and the Final Four

The “madness” has subsided

After the craziest start to the NCAA tournament in 20+ years, the madness has died down a bit.  The Elite will feature three number 1 seeds, two number 2 seeds, a 3, 4, and a 7.

Cheers.

NCAA Basketball Rankings – 3/21/2012

Rankings as of 2:18pm on 3/21/2012.  Sagarin Ratings for games though 3/21/2012. AP rankings from 3/12/2012.

In case anyone is interested, here are my rankings after the first two rounds of the NCAA tournament.  * indicates the team is in the Sweet Sixteen.

Three teams are in the Sweet Sixteen that are not in my rankings: NC State, Ohio, and Xavier.

Previous rankings are here.

Breakdown by conference: 2, 4, 5, 3, 0, 2, 2, 2, 5

ACC Big East Big Ten Big 12 Pac 12 SEC MWC MVC Other

Team Rank Change Record AP Sagarin
Kentucky* 1 34-2  1 1
Syracuse* 2 33-2  2 4
Michigan St.* 3 29-7  5 3
Ohio St.* 4 29-7  7 2
North Carolina* 5 ↑1 31-5  4 5
Kansas* 6 ↑2 29-6  6 6
Marquette* 7 ↑2 27-7  11 10
Duke 8 ↓3 27-7  8 15
Missouri 9 ↓2 30-5  3 9
Baylor* 10 29-7  9 12
Indiana* 11 27-8  16 8
Wisconsin* 12 ↑1 26-9  14 7
Louisville* 13 ↓1 28-9  17 16
Creighton 14 ↑1 29-6  19 27
Michigan 15 ↑1 29-7  13 25
Georgetown 16 ↑1 24-9  15 13
Murray St. 17 ↑1 31-2  12 38
Wichita St. 18 ↓4 27-6  18 14
Cincinnati* 19 ↑9 26-10  27 26
Florida St. 20 ↓1 25-10  10 22
Vanderbilt 21 25-11  20 19
Florida* 22 ↑5 25-10  25 11
Memphis 23 ↓3 26-9  29 18
Gonzaga 24 ↑2 26-7  30 21
St. Mary’s-CA 25 ↓3 27-6  24 36

26-35: New Mexico, Temple, Saint Louis, Purdue, San Diego St., Iowa State, UNLV, Notre Dame, Alabama, Virginia

BCS: My offer still stands…….if you want to contact me you can send me a tweet @StatsInTheWild.

Cheers.