Advertisements

Category Archives: Sports

Which sport?

I went the the Cubs game today against the Dodgers.  I got to see Clayton Kershaw pitch (Awesome) and watch the Cubs get destroyed (Expected).  It was 14-3 going into the 9th inning and some people were joking that a touchdown would get the Cubs right back in the game.  (The Cubs “rallied” for two in the 9th to ultimately lose 14-5.)

But, this got me thinking.  14-3 does look like a football score, but 14-5 is clearly not.  On the train back to school, I came up with this question: If all you knew about a game was the score, which sport would you guess generated that score?

To answer this question, I scraped the scores of (almost) all of the baseball and hockey games from 2000-2014, and I found a table of all NFL scores all-time. (I haven’t exhaustively scraped every single NHL and MLB game ever because 1) I don’t think the results will change much and 2) what I did was good enough for Friday night.) I then counted how often a specific score occurred each of the three sports (I did consider basketball, but it’s not really that interesting here) and converted that count to a percentage.  Then for each score, I assigned the sport with the highest percentage of that score.  The graphic below shows the results of this.  If you click on the image, you can zoom in on it for more detail.  whichSportScores

 

Some interesting things:

  • If the winner scores 4 or fewer goals, those games belong to hockey.
  • Additionally hockey gets 5-1, 5-2, 5-3, and 5-5.  5-0 and 5-4 are baseball scores though.
  • If the winner scores between 6 and 9 runs, those games all belong to baseball.  (With 6-6 and 7-7 ties belonging to football.
  • Every shut out where the winner scores 12 or more (12-0, 13-0, etc.) belongs to football.  Football also gets 10-0, but 11-0 belongs to baseball.
  • In fact, any game where the winner scores 11 belongs to baseball.
  • 18-8 is the lowest score combination to not be in my data set.  This means that this score has never occurred in the NFL and has (likely) not occurred in the NHL or MLB since 2000.
  • If the losing team score 10 points, the game belongs to football EXCEPT if the score is 11-10.
  • If the losing team scores 12 or more points, it’s always football.

Cheers!

Advertisements

NFL Picks Week 1

Week 1 – SU: 10-6-0 ATS: 8-8-0 O/U: 13-3-0

Green Bay at Seattle

Prediction: Seahawks 24-21 (57.9%)

Pick: Packers +6 (59.1%)

Total: Over 45

New Orleans at Atlanta

Prediction: New Orleans 25-24 (51.3%)

Pick: Saints +1 (54.2%)

Total: Under 52

Buffalo at Chicago

Prediction: Chicago 24-19 (64.3%)

Pick: Bills +6.5 (53.9%)

Total: Under 48.5

Washington at Houston

Prediction: Texans 24-20 (59.6%)

Pick: Texans -2.5 (52.5%)

Total: Under 45.5

Tennessee at Kansas City

Prediction: Chiefs 23-19 (61.0%)

Pick: Titans +6 (55.9%)

Total: Under 44

New England at Miami

Prediction: Patriots 26-22 (61.7%)

Pick: Patriots -4 (50.5%)

Total: Over 47

Oakland at NY Jets

Prediction: Jets 22-18 (59.2%)

Pick: Raiders +5.5 (56.3%)

Total: Over 39.5

Jacksonville at Philadelphia

Prediction: Eagles 28-18 (76.5%)

Pick: Jaguars +11 (52.6%)

Total: Under 52

Cleveland at Pittsburgh

Prediction: Pittsburgh 24-19 (64.6%)

Pick: Browns +6 (52.2%)

Total: Over 41

Minnesota at St. Louis

Prediction: Rams 22-20 (54.1%)

Pick: Vikings +6 (62.8%)

Total: Under 45

Cincinnati at Baltimore

Prediction: Ravens 22-20 (54.7%)

Pick: Bengals +2.5 (52.4%)

Total: Under 43.5

San Francisco at Dallas

Prediction: 49ers 22-21 (54.2%)

Pick: Cowboys +5 (59.9%)

Total: Under 49

Carolina at Tampa Bay

Prediction: Panthers 21-20 (53.8%)

Pick: Buccaneers +2 (51.9%)

Total: Over 40

Indianapolis at Denver

Prediction: Broncos 29-21 (71.4%)

Pick: Broncos -7.5 (51.1%)

Total: Under 55.5

San Diego at Arizona

Prediction: Chargers 22-21 (50.2%)

Pick: Chargers +3.5 (59.6%)

Total: Under 44.5

NY Giants at Detroit

Prediction: Lions 25-21 (60.2%)

Pick: Giants +4 (51.1%)

Total: Over 45.5

World Cup shootouts infographic

Screen Shot 2014-06-04 at 4.49.47 PMCheers.

Fully open-source, transparent implementation of Wins Above Replacement: Results from 2013

Over the past year, I’ve been involved in a project with Ben Baumer (buy his book!)  and Shane Jensen in developing an open source, completely transparent version of the (rather opaque) baseball statistic Wins Above Replacement that we’re calling  openWAR.  We presented our preliminary results this past summer in a talk at JSM and this fall in a poster at NESSIS, but now our full paper is available on ArXiV.  (Below you can see the chalkboard that resulted from our initial discussion….I assume this will be historic someday.)

2013-05-24 17.47.21 (1)

As part of our open source proposal, we’ve also developed an R package, also called openWAR, that allows the user to scrape play by play data from the web and then, if they choose, compute our version of openWAR.  The package is currently available on Ben’s github and should be available on CRAN soon.   (Jim Albert (!) mentioned this package in his recent book , which you should probably buy even if it didn’t have my name in it.  You should buy it twice, since my name is in it.)

Quick story about Jim Albert: When I was deciding where to go to grad school I applied to Bowling Green specifically because Jim Albert was there.  I got in and even had an email address and was all set to go, but they couldn’t give me an answer about funding.  UConn came along and offered me full funding, and the rest is history.  So it’s a pretty big honor for me to be mentioned in Jim Albert’s book.

Bc_VjmvCUAMQZ1w

So what are our results?  Below you’ll find out top 20 players for 2013.  One interesting thing to note is that according to our openWAR, Trout actually had a better year in 2013 than in 2012 and he still didn’t win the MVP award.

Screen Shot 2014-01-03 at 7.09.08 PMHere is a comparison of our top 10 players from 2013 versus Fangraph’s top 10 players.  Both methods agree that Mike Trout was the best player in 2013, and both methods had Josh Donaldson, Miguel Cabrera, Chris Davis, and Paul Goldschmidt in the top 10.

Screen Shot 2014-01-03 at 7.08.59 PM

Next is a table of the ten best and worst fielders of 2013.  What you should notice about this is that Miguel Cabrera, according to openWAR, was the worst fielder in baseball in 2013.  It’s really incredible that his offensive numbers are so good that they more than compensate for his poor fielding.
Screen Shot 2014-01-03 at 7.31.56 PM

The best base runner of 2013 was Ian Kinsler with a RAA of 10.64 and the worst base runner was Victor Martinez.  The ninth worst base runner in 2013 was….Miguel Cabrera.  Again, think about how good Cabrera has to be as a hitter to overcome his weaknesses as a fielder AND a baserunner to have won TWO AL MVP awards in a row.  Screen Shot 2014-01-03 at 7.08.48 PM

Cheers.

NFL Picks – Week 1

Overall Records

SU: (1-0)

ATS: (0-1)

O/U: (1-0)

Week 1 (1-0 SU, 0-1 ATS, 1-0 O/U)

September 5, 2013 – 8:30pm

Baltimore Ravens at Denver Broncos

Prediction: Broncos win 24-23

Pick: Ravens +8.5

OU: Over 47.5

September 8, 2013 – 1pm

New England Patriots at Buffalo Bills

Prediction: Patriots win 38-21

Pick: Patriots -7

OU: Over 51

Tennessee Titans at Pittsburgh Steelers

Prediction: Steelers win 25-17

Pick: Steelers -7

OU: Over 42

Atlanta Falcons at New Orleans Saints

Prediction: Falcons win 30-24

Pick: Falcons +3

OU: Over 53.5

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at New York Jets

Prediction: Buccaneers win 24-20

Pick: Buccaneers -2.5

OU: Over 40.5

Kansas City Chiefs at Jacksonville Jaguars

Prediction: Chiefs win 23-20

Pick: Jaguars +3.5

OU: Over 41

Cincinnati Bengals at Chicago Bears

Prediction: Bears win 21-17

Pick: Bengals +3.5

OU: Under 43.5

Miami Dolphins at Cleveland Browns

Prediction: Dolphins 20-19

Pick: Browns +1.5

OU: Under 41

Seattle Seahawks at Carolina Panthers

Prediction: Seahawks win 26-17

Pick: Seahawks -2.5

OU: Under 45.5

Minnesota Vikings at Detroit Lions

Prediction: Vikings win 27-24

Pick: Vikings +3.5

OU: Over 46

Oakland Raiders at Indianapolis Colts

Prediction: Colts win 27-22

Pick: Raiders +7

OU: over 47.5

September 8, 2013 – 4:25pm

St. Louis Rams at Arizona Cardinals

Rams win 21-16

Pick: Cardinals +6

OU: Under 41.5

Green Bay Packers at San Francisco 49ers

Prediction: 49ers win 26-20

Pick: 49ers -4

OU: Under 48

September 8, 2013 – 8:30pm

New York Giants at Dallas Cowboys

Prediction: Giants win 27-21

Pick: Giants +2.5

OU: Over 47.5

September 9, 2013 – 7:10pm

Philadelphia Eagles at Washington Redskins

Prediction: Redskins win 31-21

Pick: Redskins -4.5

OU: Over 47.5

September 9, 2013 – 10:20pm

Houston Texans at San Diego Chargers

Prediction: Texans win 25-19

Pick: Texans -3

OU: Over 44.5

MLB Rankings – 8/30/2013

StatsInTheWild MLB rankings as of August 30, 2013 at 2pm.  SOS=strength of schedule

Team Rank Change Record ESPN TeamRankings.com SOS Run Diff
Detroit 1 78-56 2 3 14 +159
Boston 2 80-56 6 2 10 +133
St. Louis  3 78-56 4 5 25 +146
Atlanta 4 ↑1 81-52 3 1 19 +131
Texas 5 ↑4 78-55 8 6 19 +88
Tampa Bay 6 ↓2 75-57 5 7 6 +52
Cincinnati 7 ↑3 75-59 9 10 22 +92
Baltimore 8 ↓1 71-62 12 11 4 +39
Oakland 9 ↓1 75-58 10 9 17 +71
Pittsburgh 10 ↓4 78-56 7 8 23 +51
LA Dodgers 11 ↑2 78-55 1 4 29 +59
Cleveland 12 ↓1 71-62 11 12 11 +36
Kansas City 13 ↓1 69-65 16 14 8 +39
NY Yankees 14 71-63 13 13 3 -6
Arizona 15 ↑1 68-64 14 15 24 +15
Washington 16 ↑4 68-66 15 16 28 -9
Toronto 17 ↓2 61-74 24 17 1 -54
LA Angels 18 ↓1 60-72 22 18 12 -32
Colorado 19 ↑4 63-72 19 21 26 -14
NY Mets 20 ↑2 61-72 17 19 27 -34
Milwaukee 21 ↑6 59-74 26 20 15 -57
Chi WSox 22 ↑6 56-77 27 26 9 -64
Seattle 23 ↓5 60-73 18 22 7 -107
Minnesota 24 ↓5 57-75 23 25 5 -92
Chi Cubs 25 ↓4 58-78 28 28 13 -56
SF 26 ↓2 59-74 25 27 16 -87
San Diego 27 ↓1 60-73 21 24 20 -85
Philadelphia 28 ↓3 62-73 20 23 18 -111
Miami 29 49-83 29 29 21 -120
Houston 30 44-89 30 30 2 -183

Past Rankings:

8/8/2013

6/26/2013

6/7/2013

4/24/2013

4/17/2013

4/12/2013

9/25/2012

Top 25 MLB Pitchers – August 30, 2013

Updated August 30, 2013 at 12:34am

Total Prevention is a measure of runs prevented weighted by the number of batters they have faced (Higher is better).

Yearly Expected ER  is approximately the expected number of runs that a team would allow is that pitcher pitched every inning of every game for a team (Lower is better).

 
  Pitcher Team Total Prevention Yearly Expected ER
1 ClaytonKershaw LAD 1696 301
2 MattHarvey NYM 1484 305
3 MaxScherzer DET 1299 346
4 AdamWainwright STL 1098 430
5 JoseFernandez MIA 1060 367
6 MadisonBumgarner SFG 919 439
7 PatrickCorbin ARI 910 443
8 FelixHernandez SEA 800 481
9 CliffLee PHI 771 475
10 YuDarvish TEX 766 465
11 ChrisSale CHW 756 481
12 StephenStrasburg WSN 755 457
13 AnibalSanchez DET 719 454
14 MikeMinor ATL 683 484
15 HisashiIwakuma SEA 644 507
16 ClayBuchholz BOS 636 344
17 JustinMasterson CLE 602 525
18 TravisWood CHC 584 514
19 HomerBailey CIN 571 522
20 RickyNolasco LAD 530 467
21 MatLatos CIN 520 534
22 A.J.Burnett PIT 509 521
23 FranciscoLiriano PIT 496 496
24 HirokiKuroda NYY 490 535
25 ColeHamels PHI 466 551

Full Rankings

NCAA Football Picks – Week 1

August 29, 2013

Akron at Central Florida

Prediction: Central Florida 38-20

Illinois State at Ball State

Prediction: Ball State 34-24

Kentucky at Western Kentucky

Prediction: Western Kentucky 25-23

Liberty at Kent State

Prediction: Kent State 28-21

North Carolina at South Carolina

Prediction: South Carolina 24-22

Rutgers at Fresno State

Prediction: Rutgers 21-20

Sacramento State at San Jose State

Prediction: San Jose State 35-19

Samford at Georgia State

Prediction: Georgia State 26-23

USC at Hawaii

Prediction: USC 36-13

Southern Utah at South Alabama

Prediction: South Alabama 27-21

Towson at UConn

Prediction: UConn 24-17

Tulsa at Bowling Green

Prediction: Tulsa 27-17

Utah State at Utah

Prediction: Utah State 24-19

Western Carolina at Middle Tennessee State

Prediction: Middle Tennessee State 36-21

August 30, 2013

Southern at Houston

Prediction: Houston 42-23

Texas Tech at SMU

Prediction: Texas Tech 30-23

August 31, 2013

UAB at Troy

Prediction: Troy 38-29

Austin Peay at Tennessee

Prediction: Tennessee 47-16

Boise State at Washington

Boise State 23-16

BYU at Virginia

Prediction: BYU 26-14

Buffalo at Ohio State

Prediction: Ohio State 34-14

Central Michigan at Michigan

Prediction: Michigan 35-19

Eastern Illinois at San Diego State

Prediction: San Diego State 40-17

Eastern Washington at Oregon State

Prediction: Oregon State 33-16

Elon at Georgia Tech

Prediction: Georgia Tech 44-14

FIU at Maryland

Prediction: Maryland 23-20

Georgia at Clemson

Prediction: Georgia 28-27

Howard at Eastern Michigan

Prediction: Eastern Michigan 27-25

Idaho at North Texas

Prediction: North Texas 34-22

Indiana at Indiana State

Prediction: Indiana 35-24

Jackson State at Tulane

Prediction: Jackson State 29-27

Louisiana Tech at NC State

Prediction: Louisiana Tech 37-33

Louisiana-Lafayette at Arkansas

Prediction: Arkansas 33-27

Louisiana-Monroe at Oklahoma

Prediction: Oklahoma 38-20

LSU at TCU

Prediction: TCU 17-16

Massachusetts at Wisconsin

Prediction: Wisconsin wins 43-7

McNeese State at South Florida

Prediction: South Florida 31-23

Mississippi at Vanderbilt

Prediction: Vanderbilt 24-23

Mississippi State at Oklahoma

Prediction: Oklahoma State 34-21

Morgan State at Army

Prediction: Army 54-17

Murray State at Missouri

Prediction: Missouri 40-10

Nevada at UCLA

Prediction: MUCL 37-33

UNLV at Minnesota

Prediction: Minnesota 30-19

New Mexico State at Texas

Prediction: Texas 41-13

Nicholls State at Oregon

Prediction: Oregon 58-10

North Carolina Central at Duke

Prediction: Duke 38-20

North Dakota State at Kansas State

Prediction: Kansas State 17-14

Northern Arizona at Arizona

Prediction: Arizona 43-19

Northern Illinois at Iowa

Prediction: Northern Illinois 23-19

Northern Iowa at Iowa State

Prediction: Iowa State 27-19

Northwestern at California

Prediction: Northwestern 31-23

Oklahoma State at Mississippi State

Prediction: Oklahoma State 34-33

Penn State at Syracuse

Prediction: Penn State 27-22

Presbyterian at Wake Forest

Prediction: Wake Forest 34-12

Purdue at Cincinnati

Prediction: Cincinnati 30-23

Rice at Texas A&M

Prediction: Texas A&M 48-20

Southern Illinois at Illinois

Prediction: Illinois 27-19

Temple at Notre Dame

Prediction: Notre Dame 30-12

Texas State at Southern Mississippi

Prediction: Southern Mississippi 28-27

Texas-San Antonio at New Mexico

Prediction: New Mexico 30-28

Toledo at Florida

Prediction: Florida 31-14

Villanova at Boston College

Prediction: Boston College 27-21

Virginia Tech at Alabama

Prediction: Alabama 26-9

Washington State at Auburn

Prediction: Auburn 28-19

Western Michigan at Michigan State

Prediction: Michigan State 28-17

William & Mary at West Virginia

West Virginia 35-17

Wofford at Baylor

Prediction: Baylor 45-27

Wyoming at Nebraska

Prediction: Nebraska 40-17

Top 25 Pitchers – 6/27/2013

Updated June 27, 2013 at 12:34am

Total Prevention is a measure of runs prevented weighted by the number of batters they have faced (Higher is better).

Yearly Expected ER  is approximately the expected number of runs that a team would allow is that pitcher pitched every inning of every game for a team (Lower is better).

 
Rank Pitcher Team Total Prevention Yearly Expected ER
1 MattHarvey NYM 983 275
2 AdamWainwright STL 809 368
3 CliffLee PHI 796 373
4 ClaytonKershaw LAD 784 367
5 MaxScherzer DET 726 357
6 JordanZimmermann WSN 671 391
7 PatrickCorbin ARI 627 401
8 ClayBuchholz BOS 624 350
9 HisashiIwakuma SEA 595 417
10 ChrisSale CHW 593 401
11 MadisonBumgarner SFG 539 438
12 TravisWood CHC 530 429
13 FelixHernandez SEA 529 457
14 ShelbyMiller STL 525 417
15 YuDarvish TEX 501 458
16 StephenStrasburg WSN 488 421
17 AnibalSanchez DET 450 433
18 EricStults SDP 430 484
19 HomerBailey CIN 422 476
20 LanceLynn STL 421 470
21 JeffLocke PIT 398 485
22 HirokiKuroda NYY 390 493
23 JoseFernandez MIA 377 473
24 MikeMinor ATL 358 499
25 A.J.Burnett PIT 353 493

Full Rankings

MLB Rankings – 6/26/2013

StatsInTheWild MLB rankings as of June 26, 2012 at 2pm.  SOS=strength of schedule

Team Rank Change Record ESPN TeamRankings.com SOS Run Diff
St. Louis 1 48-29 1 2 25 +114
Boston 2 ↑1 46-33 2 1 6 +76
Detroit 3 ↑3 42-33 3 4 16 +76
Pittsburgh 4 ↑1 47-30 7 3 21 +34
Cincinnati 5 ↓3 45-33 4 10 20 +52
Oakland 6 ↑2 45-34 6 8 17 +49
Tampa Bay 7 41-37 14 7 4 +21
Baltimore 8 ↑1 43-35 8 5 2 +14
Texas 9 ↓5 44-33 9 6 15 +25
Atlanta 10 45-33 5 11 30 +56
NY Yankees 11 ↑1 42-33 11 9 3 0
Toronto 12 ↑6 38-38 12 12 1 -1
Cleveland 13 ↑1 39-37 16 13 9 +16
Arizona 14 ↓3 41-35 10 14 22 +20
Colorado 15 ↓2 39-39 18 15 24 +28
Kansas City 16 35-39 20 16 8 +7
SF 17 ↓2 38-39 13 18 19 -18
LA Angels 18 ↑3 34-43 21 22 11 -8
Minnesota 19 ↓2 34-49 22 20 10 -25
San Diego 20 39-39 17 19 23 -21
Washington 21 ↑1
38-38 15 17 28 -28
Chi Cubs 22 ↓3 31-44 24 27 14 -18
Chi WSox 23 32-42 26 26 12 -34
Milwaukee 24 ↑2 32-43 27 25 13 -41
LA Dodgers 25 ↑2 34-42 23 24 18 -41
Seattle 26 ↓2 34-44 25 23 7 -62
Philadelphia 27 ↓2 37-41 19 21 29 -55
NY Mets 28 ↑1 30-43 28 28 27 -44
Houston 29 ↓1 29-49 29 29 5 -104
Miami 30 26-50 30 30 26 -88

Past Rankings:

6/7/2013

4/24/2013

4/17/2013

4/12/2013

9/25/2012