Originally posted on Exploring Baseball Data with R: One of the best known player forecasting systems is Tom Tango’s MARCEL. One of MARCEL’s primary benefits is that it is relatively simple to understand. The basic idea is to take a time-weighted three-year average of past performance and adjust for age. This simple projection system has…

The college football playoff bracket has been announced:  Alabama will play Michigan State in the Cotton Bowl and Clemson will play Oklahoma in the Orange Bowl.  The teams were ranked as follows: Clemson Alabama Michigan State Oklahoma The committee basically has to rank Clemson number 1 because they haven’t lost a game yet, Alabama is,…

My record last year Total (weeks 1-13) – SU: 119-73 ATS: 97-90-5 O/U: 107-81-3 Week 1 – SU: 10-6 ATS: 10-6 O/U: 11-5 Week 2 – SU: 8-8 ATS: 9-7 O/U: 9-7 Week 3 – SU: 10-6 ATS: 2-14 O/U: 7-8-1 Week 4 – SU: 10-5 ATS: 9-6 O/U: 9-6 Week 5 – SU: 7-7 ATS: 9-4-1 O/U: 6-8 Week 6…

My record last year Total (weeks 1-12) – SU: 109-67 ATS: 89-82-5 O/U: 98-74-3 Week 1 – SU: 10-6 ATS: 10-6 O/U: 11-5 Week 2 – SU: 8-8 ATS: 9-7 O/U: 9-7 Week 3 – SU: 10-6 ATS: 2-14 O/U: 7-8-1 Week 4 – SU: 10-5 ATS: 9-6 O/U: 9-6 Week 5 – SU: 7-7 ATS: 9-4-1 O/U: 6-8 Week 6…

My friend sent me an email today commenting that there were a lot of mediocre NFL teams this year, and I think I read something somewhere that said there are more teams at or below .500 at this point in the season than in any year since 1990.  So this got me thinking about some…

My record last year Total (weeks 1-11) – SU: 99-61 ATS: 80-75-5 O/U: 91-66-3 Week 1 – SU: 10-6 ATS: 10-6 O/U: 11-5 Week 2 – SU: 8-8 ATS: 9-7 O/U: 9-7 Week 3 – SU: 10-6 ATS: 2-14 O/U: 7-8-1 Week 4 – SU: 10-5 ATS: 9-6 O/U: 9-6 Week 5 – SU: 7-7 ATS: 9-4-1 O/U: 6-8 Week 6…

My record last year Total (weeks 1-9) – SU: 87-56 ATS: 74-68-4 O/U: 94-59-2 Week 1 – SU: 10-6 ATS: 10-6 O/U: 11-5 Week 2 – SU: 8-8 ATS: 9-7 O/U: 9-7 Week 3 – SU: 10-6 ATS: 2-14 O/U: 7-8-1 Week 4 – SU: 10-5 ATS: 9-6 O/U: 9-6 Week 5 – SU: 7-7 ATS: 9-4-1 O/U: 6-8 Week 6…

Originally posted on Stats in the Wild: I went the the Cubs game today against the Dodgers.  I got to see Clayton Kershaw pitch (Awesome) and watch the Cubs get destroyed (Expected).  It was 14-3 going into the 9th inning and some people were joking that a touchdown would get the Cubs right back in…

I recently submitted by entry to this Major League baseball data visualization contest.  My entry is below (click on it and zoom in and out to see each graph): Each graph displays games played, home runs, stolen bases, hits, and on base percentage per season for each player as well as their career on base…

Originally posted on Out of This Dimension: It may tell us if what we predict is right. Like where Anton may spend the night. This is what Randy needs to know. So the area-under-the-curve (AUC) can’t be too low. ? Can you just handle all the suspense? And will you then give my trilogy a…