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  • NFL Picks – Week 15

    My record last year

    Total (weeks 1-15) – SU: 128-79 ATS: 103-98-1 O/U: 114-88-1

    Week 1 – SU: 10-6 ATS: 10-6 O/U: 11-5

    Week 2 – SU: 8-8 ATS: 9-7 O/U: 9-7

    Week 3 – SU: 10-6 ATS: 2-14 O/U: 7-8-1

    Week 4 – SU: 10-5 ATS: 9-6 O/U: 9-6

    Week 5 – SU: 7-7 ATS: 9-4-1 O/U: 6-8

    Week 6 – SU: 12-2 ATS: 9-4-1 O/U: 8-6

    Week 7 – SU: 10-4 ATS: 6-8 O/U: 10-4

    Week 8 – SU: 9-5 ATS: 7-5-2 O/U: 7-7

    Week 9 – SU: 8-5 ATS: 5-8 O/U: 8-5

    Week 10 – SU: 5-9 ATS: 8-6 O/U: 9-3-2

    Week 11 – SU: 10-4 ATS: 6-7-1  O/U: 7-7

    Week 12 – SU: 10-6 ATS: 9-7  O/U: 8-8

    Week 13 – SU: 9-6 ATS: 7-8  O/U: 9-6

    Week 14 – SU: 8-4 ATS: 7-5  O/U: 8-4

    Week 15 – SU: 10-6 ATS: 7-8-1  O/U: 7-8-1

    Tampa Bay at St. Louis

    Prediction: Rams 21-19

    Pick: Rams -1

    Total: Under 41

    NY Jets at Dallas

    Prediction: Cowboys 22-19

    Pick: Cowboys +3 PUSH

    Total: Under 41.5

    Chicago at Minnesota

    Prediction: Vikings 22-21

    Pick: Bears +6

    Total: Over 43

    Atlanta at Jacksonville

    Prediction: Falcons 24-22

    Pick: Falcons +3

    Total: Under 49

    Houston at Indianapolis

    Prediction: Colts 23-22

    Pick: Colts -1

    Total: Over 41

    Kansas City at Baltimore

    Prediction: Ravens 22-21

    Pick: Ravens +7

    Total: Over 41

    Buffalo at Washington

    Prediction: Washington Football Team 22-21

    Pick: Washington Football Team +1.5

    Total: Under 44

    Tennessee at New England

    Prediction: Patriots 28-19

    Pick: Titans +14

    Total: Over 47

    Arizona at Philadelphia

    Prediction: Eagles 25-23

    Pick: Eagles +3.5

    Total: Under 51

    Carolina at NY Giants

    Prediction: Panthers 23-22

    Pick: Giants +4.5

    Total: Under 48

    Cleveland at Seattle

    Prediction: Seahawks 26-16

    Pick: Browns +15

    Total: Under 43 PUSH

    Green Bay at Oakland

    Prediction: Packers 25-20

    Pick: Packers -3

    Total: Under 47.5

    Miami at San Diego

    Prediction: Chargers 24-22

    Pick: Chargers -1.5

    Total: Over 45.5

    Denver at Pittsburgh

    Prediction: Broncos 24-23

    Pick: Broncos +6

    Total: Over 44.5

    Cincinnati at San Francisco

    Prediction: 49ers 22-19

    Pick: 49ers +5.5

    Total: Over 40.5

    Detroit at New Orleans

    Prediction: Saints 27-24

    Pick: Saints -2.5

    Total: Over 50

  • Erdős is still publishing

    My Erdos number is 4.

    Michael Lugo's avatarGod plays dice

    Paul Erdős is still publishing. His newest paper, with Ron Graham and Steve Butler,shows that any natural number can be written as a sum $latex sum_1^ell 1/a_i$ with $latex a_1 < ldots < a_ell$, where each denominator is the product of three distinct primes. A footnote, on the obvious generalization to expressing rational numbers in such a form, reads:
    “One of the authors believes that all rational numbers can be expressed in this form, another author has doubts that every rational number can be expressed in this form, and the third author, already having looked in The BOOK at the answer, remains silent on this issue.” For more of the context on this paper, see Siobhan Roberts writing for the Simons Foundation.

    “The BOOK”, of course, refers to Erdős’ frequent claim that God (who he did not believe in) had a book in heaven that had the best proof…

    View original post 24 more words

  • NFL Picks – Week 14

    My record last year

    Total (weeks 1-13) – SU: 129-79 ATS: 105-98-5 O/U: 115-89-3

    Week 1 – SU: 10-6 ATS: 10-6 O/U: 11-5

    Week 2 – SU: 8-8 ATS: 9-7 O/U: 9-7

    Week 3 – SU: 10-6 ATS: 2-14 O/U: 7-8-1

    Week 4 – SU: 10-5 ATS: 9-6 O/U: 9-6

    Week 5 – SU: 7-7 ATS: 9-4-1 O/U: 6-8

    Week 6 – SU: 12-2 ATS: 9-4-1 O/U: 8-6

    Week 7 – SU: 10-4 ATS: 6-8 O/U: 10-4

    Week 8 – SU: 9-5 ATS: 7-5-2 O/U: 7-7

    Week 9 – SU: 8-5 ATS: 5-8 O/U: 8-5

    Week 10 – SU: 5-9 ATS: 8-6 O/U: 9-3-2

    Week 11 – SU: 10-4 ATS: 6-7-1  O/U: 7-7

    Week 12 – SU: 10-6 ATS: 9-7  O/U: 8-8

    Week 13 – SU: 10-6 ATS: 8-8  O/U: 9-7

    Week 14 – SU: 10-6 ATS: 8-8  O/U: 8-8

    Minnesota at Arizona

    Prediction: Cardinals 23-20

    Pick: Vikings +10.5

    Total: Under 46.5

    Pittsburgh at Cincinnati

    Prediction: Bengals 24-22

    Pick: Steelers +2.5

    Total: Under 47

    Buffalo at Philadelphia

    Prediction: Eagles 25-22

    Pick: Eagles EVEN

    Total: Under 47

    Atlanta at Carolina

    Prediction: Panthers 25-21

    Pick: Falcons +8.5

    Total: Under 47

    San Francisco at Cleveland

    Prediction: 49ers 21-20

    Pick: 49ers +1

    Total: Under 41.5

    Washington at Chicago

    Prediction: Bears 23-21

    Pick: Washington Football Team +4

    Total: Over 43.5

    Detroit at St. Louis

    Prediction: Rams 21-20

    Pick: Rams +3

    Total: Over 41

    San Diego at Kansas City

    Prediction: Chiefs 24-21

    Pick: Chargers +10.5

    Total: Over 44.5

    New Orleans at Tampa Bay

    Prediction: Saints 25-24

    Pick: Saints +4.5

    Total: Under 50.5

    Indianapolis at Jacksonville

    Prediction: Colts 24-21

    Pick: Colts +1.5

    Total: Under 46

    Tennessee at NY Jets

    Prediction: Jets 22-18

    Pick: Titans +7

    Total: Under 43

    New England at Houston

    Prediction: Patriots 25-23

    Pick: Texans +3.5

    Total: Over 45

    Oakland at Denver

    Prediction: Broncos 27-19

    Pick: Broncos -6.5

    Total: Over 43.5

    Dallas at Green Bay

    Prediction: Packers 26-20

    Pick: Packers -5

    Total: Over 42.5

    Seattle at Baltimore

    Prediction: Seahawks 23-19

    Pick: Ravens +12

    Total: Over 40.5

    NY Giants at Miami

    Prediction: Dolphins 24-22

    Pick: Dolphins +1.5

    Total: Under 47

  • MARCEL the Matrix

    MARCEL!

    bbaumer21's avatarExploring Baseball Data with R

    One of the best known player forecasting systems is Tom Tango’s MARCEL. One of MARCEL’s primary benefits is that it is relatively simple to understand. The basic idea is to take a time-weighted three-year average of past performance and adjust for age. This simple projection system has proven to be relatively robust, in that many others have tried and failed to best MARCEL’s projections. Today, we’ll calculate MARCEL in R.

    Being a relatively simple projection system, MARCEL does not require play-by-play data. Thus, we can compute in R using the venerable Lahman Database, which is packaged into R by Michael Friendly. The Lahman Database contains seasonal totals for all major league players going all the way back to 1871.

    Part of this exercise will involve confirming that we have done the calculations correctly by comparing our results to Tango’s. In his original instructions, Tango computes MARCEL for…

    View original post 1,092 more words

  • Michigan State gets the “3” seed; Oklahoma gets the “4” seed

    The college football playoff bracket has been announced:  Alabama will play Michigan State in the Cotton Bowl and Clemson will play Oklahoma in the Orange Bowl.  The teams were ranked as follows:

    1. Clemson
    2. Alabama
    3. Michigan State
    4. Oklahoma

    The committee basically has to rank Clemson number 1 because they haven’t lost a game yet, Alabama is, I think, clearly the best of the one loss teams (and arguably the best overall team), but Michigan State being ranked higher than Oklahoma seems a bit odd to me.

    Screen Shot 2015-12-06 at 1.07.06 PM.png

    Sagarin (as of today) has Alabama number 1, Oklahoma number 2, Clemson number 3 and Michigan State all the way down at number 9.  Now I’m not going to fault the selection committee for putting Clemson at number 1 seed, they are the only undefeated team (even if they believe Alabama is better).  I have no problem with Alabama at number 2 either (best 1 loss team), but Michigan State seems to clearly be the 4 seed here.

    But wait!  Here’s my theory on this.  Look at the Vegas odds as of November 30th (I’m guessing these haven’t changed too much since conference championship games):

    Screen Shot 2015-12-06 at 12.57.44 PM

    The committee has it’s hands tied with ranking Clemson number 1 even if they believe that Alabama is the better team, as Vegas believes.  So I think the committee wanted to avoid putting arguably the two best teams (Alabama and Oklahoma) in a semi-final match-up even if it means rankings Oklahoma 4th below a, what I believe to be, clearly inferior team on paper (Remember Michigan State is here thanks to a botched punt).

    If a bracket were created with seeds based on the Vegas betting odds OR  Sagarin’s ratings (OR most ratings collected here by Massey), you’d get (1)Alabama vs (4) Michigan State and (2 (or 3)) Oklahoma vs (2 (or 3)) Clemson.  Which is exactly the same bracket that we actually have!

    So I don’t think that the committee actually believe Michigan State is better than Oklahoma, I think they sneakily made Oklahoma the 4 seed to get better semi-final match-ups since they were stuck with Clemson as the 1 seed.

    Cheers.

  • NFL Picks – Week 13

    My record last year

    Total (weeks 1-13) – SU: 119-73 ATS: 97-90-5 O/U: 107-81-3

    Week 1 – SU: 10-6 ATS: 10-6 O/U: 11-5

    Week 2 – SU: 8-8 ATS: 9-7 O/U: 9-7

    Week 3 – SU: 10-6 ATS: 2-14 O/U: 7-8-1

    Week 4 – SU: 10-5 ATS: 9-6 O/U: 9-6

    Week 5 – SU: 7-7 ATS: 9-4-1 O/U: 6-8

    Week 6 – SU: 12-2 ATS: 9-4-1 O/U: 8-6

    Week 7 – SU: 10-4 ATS: 6-8 O/U: 10-4

    Week 8 – SU: 9-5 ATS: 7-5-2 O/U: 7-7

    Week 9 – SU: 8-5 ATS: 5-8 O/U: 8-5

    Week 10 – SU: 5-9 ATS: 8-6 O/U: 9-3-2

    Week 11 – SU: 10-4 ATS: 6-7-1  O/U: 7-7

    Week 12 – SU: 10-6 ATS: 9-7  O/U: 8-8

    Week 13 – SU: 10-6 ATS: 8-8  O/U: 9-7

    Green Bay at Detroit

    Prediction: Packers 25-22

    Pick: Packers -2.5

    Total: Over 46.5

    San Francisco at Chicago

    Prediction: Bears 21-20

    Pick: 49ers +7

    Total: Under 43

    Cincinnati at Cleveland

    Prediction: Bengals 23-20

    Pick: Browns +9.5

    Total: Under 43.5

    Jacksonville at Tennessee

    Prediction: Titans 22-19

    Pick: Titans -2.5

    Total: Under 43.5

    Houston at Buffalo

    Prediction: Bills 22-20

    Pick: Texans +3

    Total: Over 41.5

    Baltimore at Miami

    Prediction: Ravens 22-21

    Pick: Ravens +3.5

    Total: Under 43.5

    Carolina at New Orleans

    Prediction: Saints 25-24

    Pick: Saints +7

    Total: Under 49.5

    Seattle at Minnesota

    Prediction: Seahawks 23-19

    Pick: Seahawks EVEN

    Total: Under 42 

    Arizona at St. Louis

    Prediction: Cardinals 21-20

    Pick: Rams +6

    Total: Under 43

    Atlanta at Tampa Bay

    Prediction: Falcons 24-22

    Pick: Falcons +1

    Total: Under 46

    NY Jets at NY Giants

    Prediction: Giants 22-20

    Pick: Giants +2

    Total: Under 45

    Denver at San Diego

    Prediction: Broncos 25-23

    Pick: Chargers +4

    Total: Over 43.5

    Kansas City at Oakland

    Prediction: Chiefs 23-20

    Pick: Raiders +3

    Total: Under 44

    Philadelphia at New England

    Prediction: Patriots 29-24

    Pick: Eagles +10

    Total: Over 49

    Indianapolis at Pittsburgh

    Prediction: Steelers 26-23

    Pick: Colts +7

    Total: Over 48

    Dallas at Washington

    Prediction: Cowboys 22-21

    Pick: Cowboys +4.5

    Total: Over 42

  • NFL Picks – Week 12

    My record last year

    Total (weeks 1-12) – SU: 109-67 ATS: 89-82-5 O/U: 98-74-3

    Week 1 – SU: 10-6 ATS: 10-6 O/U: 11-5

    Week 2 – SU: 8-8 ATS: 9-7 O/U: 9-7

    Week 3 – SU: 10-6 ATS: 2-14 O/U: 7-8-1

    Week 4 – SU: 10-5 ATS: 9-6 O/U: 9-6

    Week 5 – SU: 7-7 ATS: 9-4-1 O/U: 6-8

    Week 6 – SU: 12-2 ATS: 9-4-1 O/U: 8-6

    Week 7 – SU: 10-4 ATS: 6-8 O/U: 10-4

    Week 8 – SU: 9-5 ATS: 7-5-2 O/U: 7-7

    Week 9 – SU: 8-5 ATS: 5-8 O/U: 8-5

    Week 10 – SU: 5-9 ATS: 8-6 O/U: 9-3-2

    Week 11 – SU: 10-4 ATS: 6-7-1  O/U: 7-7

    Week 12 – SU: 10-6 ATS: 9-7 O/U: 8-8

    Philadelphia at Detroit

    Prediction: Lions 25-24

    Pick: Lions +1.5

    Total: Over 45.5

    Carolina at Dallas

    Prediction: Cowboys 22-21

    Pick: Cowboys -1

    Total: Under 45.5

    Chicago at Green Bay

    Prediction: Packers 27-20

    Pick: Bears +8.5

    Total: Over 45

    New Orleans at Houston

    Prediction: Texans 26-25

    Pick: Saints +3 

    Total: Over 47.5

    Minnesota at Atlanta

    Prediction: Falcons 24-21

    Pick: Falcons -1

    Total: Under 45.5

    St. Louis at Cincinnati

    Prediction: Bengals 22-18

    Pick: Rams +9

    Total: Under 42

    Tampa Bay at Indianapolis

    Prediction: Colts 25-20

    Pick: Colts -3

    Total: Under 46.5

    NY Giants at Washington

    Prediction: Giants 23-22

    Pick: Washington Football Team +2.5

    Total: Under 47

    Oakland at Tennessee

    Prediction: Titans 22-20

    Pick: Titans +2

    Total: Under 44

    Buffalo at Kansas City 

    Prediction: Chiefs 22-19

    Pick: Bills +6.5 

    Total: Under 42.5

    Miami at NY Jets

    Prediction: Jets 21-20

    Pick: Dolphins +3.5

    Total: Under 42.5

    San Diego at Jacksonville

    Prediction: Chargers 24-21

    Pick: Chargers +4

    Total: Under 46.5

    Arizona at San Francisco

    Prediction: 49ers 21-20

    Pick: 49ers +10.5

    Total: Under 44.5

    Pittsburgh at Seattle

    Prediction: Seahawks 25-19

    Pick: Seahawks -4

    Total: Under 45.5

    New England at Denver

    Prediction: Broncos 26-25

    Pick: Broncos +3

    Total: Over 43.5

    Baltimore at Cleveland

    Prediction: Ravens 23-21

    Pick: Ravens +2.5

    Total: Over 41

  • NFL 2015: Just slightly below average or the year of the right skew

    My friend sent me an email today commenting that there were a lot of mediocre NFL teams this year, and I think I read something somewhere that said there are more teams at or below .500 at this point in the season than in any year since 1990.  So this got me thinking about some posts that I had written in like 2009 about entropy in the NFL (here and here).

    I don’t really like the way I did them back then, so I did them differently today.  What I did today was take the counts of wins for each team and did a goodness of fit test or a contingency table with probability 1/# of NFL teams for each cell.  This is assuming that the the counts of the wins for NFL teams are randomly distributed across teams across the league.  Below is a Manhattan style plot (like those used in GWAS) displaying the -log(p-value) for the league for each year from 2000 through 2015.  Since, we are currently in the middle of 2015, I extrapolated win totals based on current win percentages (I don’t think this is great, but I’ll update it at the end of the season with the full results).  What you can see is that 2015 is the only year with a p-value below the magical 0.05 level.  (Of course, correcting for multiple tests with Bonferroni renders all of these tests insignificant).

    Screen Shot 2015-11-22 at 7.14.43 PM

    The next closest year was 2005, which was a very strange year.  Only one team finished 8-8 (3.8 teams on average) and the distribution of wins for teams was essentially bimodal.  You were either a pretty good team or a pretty bad team, but mediocrity was hard to come by in 2005.    What’s so different about 2015 is that the rejection of the null hypothesis this year seems to be being driven by the large number of slightly below average teams (Dolphins, Colts, Texans, Chiefs, Raiders, Giants, Washington Football Team, Eagles, Bears, Buccaneers, Saints, Seahawks, and Rams) and a few teams that are very, very good (Bengals, Patriots and of course the 9-1 Panthers.) On the other end of spectrum was 2002 when it seemed like every team in the league was 9-7, no team won 13 or more games (only other time that has happened since 2000 was last year in 2014), and every team won at least 2 games.

    The plot below shows histograms for the distribution of win totals. Orange boxes indicate a higher count in that bin and blue indicates a lower count.  (Note: 2015 win totals are extrapolated).  Just take a look at the distribution of 2015!  So many teams are just slightly below .500, which is distinctly different from any other year since 2000.  I suspect that as the season finished, this shape we are seeing will diminish somewhat, but I think the general trend is interesting (I mean we are in week 11 right now).

    Screen Shot 2015-11-22 at 7.19.17 PM

    Finally, I made some side by side boxplots (because I love them) to look at the distribution of team wins across season.  Orange boxes are related to small p-values (i.e. significantly different than the null hypothesis) and blue boxes correspond to large p-values.  Here the win totals for 2015 are not extrapolated and……

    Screen Shot 2015-11-22 at 7.14.21 PM

    I re-created the boxplots with 2015 win totals extrapolated.

    Screen Shot 2015-11-22 at 7.13.37 PM

    In conclusion, 2015 is a weird year in the NFL.

    Cheers.

  • NFL Picks – Week 11

    My record last year

    Total (weeks 1-11) – SU: 99-61 ATS: 80-75-5 O/U: 91-66-3

    Week 1 – SU: 10-6 ATS: 10-6 O/U: 11-5

    Week 2 – SU: 8-8 ATS: 9-7 O/U: 9-7

    Week 3 – SU: 10-6 ATS: 2-14 O/U: 7-8-1

    Week 4 – SU: 10-5 ATS: 9-6 O/U: 9-6

    Week 5 – SU: 7-7 ATS: 9-4-1 O/U: 6-8

    Week 6 – SU: 12-2 ATS: 9-4-1 O/U: 8-6

    Week 7 – SU: 10-4 ATS: 6-8 O/U: 10-4

    Week 8 – SU: 9-5 ATS: 7-5-2 O/U: 7-7

    Week 9 – SU: 8-5 ATS: 5-8 O/U: 8-5

    Week 10 – SU: 5-9 ATS: 8-6 O/U: 9-3-2

    Week 11 – SU: 10-4 ATS: 6-7-1  O/U: 7-7

     

    Tennessee at Jacksonville

    Prediction: Jaguars 21-20

    Pick: Titans +3.5

    Total: Under 42.5

    Washington at Carolina

    Prediction: Panthers 24-19

    Pick: Washington Football Team +7

    Total: Under 45

    Oakland at Detroit

    Prediction: Lions 25-20

    Pick: Lions +1

    Total: Under 49.5

    Dallas at Miami

    Prediction: Dolphins 23-22

    Pick: Dolphins +1

    Total: Under 47

    Indianapolis at Atlanta

    Prediction: Falcons 26-24

    Pick: Colts +5.5

    Total: Over 47.5

    St. Louis at Baltimore

    Prediction: Ravens 22-19

    Pick: Ravens -2.5

    Total: Under 41.5

    NY Jets at Houston

    Prediction: Texans 22-19

    Pick: Texans +2.5

    Total: Under 41.5

    Green Bay at Minnesota

    Prediction: Packers 24-21

    Pick: Packers +1

    Total:  Over 44.5

    Tampa Bay at Philadelphia

    Prediction: Eagles 26-20

    Pick: Eagles -5.5 

    Total: Over 45

    Denver at Chicago

    Prediction: Broncos 24-21

    Pick: Broncos +1

    Total: Over 41

    Cincinnati at Arizona

    Prediction: Cardinals 22-21

    Pick: Bengals +5

    Total: Under 48.5

    San Francisco at Seattle

    Prediction: Seahawks 23-16

    Pick: 49ers +12.5

    Total: Under 40

    Kansas City at San Diego

    Prediction: Chargers 23-22

    Pick: Chargers +3

    Total: Over 45

    Buffalo at New England

    Prediction: Patriots 27-21

    Pick: Bills +7 PUSH

    Total: Under 48.5

  • NFL Picks – Week 10

    My record last year

    Total (weeks 1-9) – SU: 87-56 ATS: 74-68-4 O/U: 94-59-2

    Week 1 – SU: 10-6 ATS: 10-6 O/U: 11-5

    Week 2 – SU: 8-8 ATS: 9-7 O/U: 9-7

    Week 3 – SU: 10-6 ATS: 2-14 O/U: 7-8-1

    Week 4 – SU: 10-5 ATS: 9-6 O/U: 9-6

    Week 5 – SU: 7-7 ATS: 9-4-1 O/U: 6-8

    Week 6 – SU: 12-2 ATS: 9-4-1 O/U: 8-6

    Week 7 – SU: 10-4 ATS: 6-8 O/U: 10-4

    Week 8 – SU: 9-5 ATS: 7-5-2 O/U: 7-7

    Week 9 – SU: 8-5 ATS: 5-8 O/U: 8-5

    Week 10 – SU: 5-9 ATS: 8-6 O/U: 9-3-2

    Buffalo at NY Jets

    Prediction: Jets 21-19

    Pick: Jets -1.5

    Total: Under 41.5

    Detroit at Green Bay

    Prediction: Packers 27-21

    Pick: Lions +11

    Total: Under 49

    Dallas at Tampa Bay

    Prediction: Cowboys 23-20

    Pick: Cowboys +1.5

    Total: Under 43.5

    Carolina at Tennessee

    Prediction: Panthers 22-20

    Pick: Titans +5.5

    Total: Under 44

    Chicago at St. Louis

    Prediction: Rams 21-19

    Pick: Bears +7

    Total: Under 42.5

    New Orleans at Washington

    Prediction: Saints 27-25

    Pick: Saints -1

    Total: Over 50

    Miami at Philadelphia

    Prediction: Eagles 26-22

    Pick: Dolphins +6

    Total: Under 49

    Cleveland at Pittsburgh

    Prediction: Steelers 25-20

    Pick: Steelers -5

    Total: Over 41.5

    Jacksonville at Baltimore

    Prediction: Ravens 25-17

    Pick: Ravens -5.5

    Total: Under 47.5

    Minnesota at Oakland

    Prediction: Vikings 22-21

    Pick: Vikings +3

    Total: Under 44 PUSH

    Kansas City at Denver

    Prediction: Broncos 25-20

    Pick: Chiefs +6

    Total: Over 42 PUSH

    New England at NY Giants

    Prediction: Patriots 27-24

    Pick: Giants +7

    Total: Under 54.5

    Arizona at Seattle

    Prediction: Seahawks 24-17

    Pick: Seahawks -3

    Total: Under 45

    Houston at Cincinnati

    Prediction: Bengals 24-20

    Pick: Texans +10.5

    Total: Under 47.5