NFL Predictions – Week 9
Total (weeks 1-9) – SU: 83-47 ATS: 66-62-4 O/U: 75-56-1
Week 1 – SU: 10-6 ATS: 10-6 O/U: 11-5
Week 2 – SU: 8-8 ATS: 9-7 O/U: 9-7
Week 3 – SU: 10-6 ATS: 2-14 O/U: 7-8-1
Week 4 – SU: 10-5 ATS: 9-6 O/U: 9-6
Week 5 – SU: 7-7 ATS: 9-4-1 O/U: 6-8
Week 6 – SU: 13-2 ATS: 9-4-1 O/U: 8-6
Week 7 – SU: 10-4 ATS: 6-8 O/U: 10-4
Week 8 – SU: 9-5 ATS: 7-5-2 O/U: 7-7
Week 9 – SU: 8-5 ATS: 5-8 O/U: 8-5
Cleveland at Cincinnati
Prediction: Bengals 25-19
Pick: Browns +13
Total: Under 45.5
Tennessee at New Orleans
Prediction: Saints 28-20
Pick: Saints -7.5
Total: Over 48
Miami at Buffalo
Prediction: Bills 22-21
Pick: Dolphins +3
Total: Under 44
Washington at New England
Prediction: Patriots 29-21
Pick: Washington Football Team +14
Total: Under 52
Jacksonville at NY Jets
Prediction: Jets 23-17
Pick: Jets -2.5
Total: Under 42.5
Oakland at Pittsburgh
Prediction: Steelers 25-19
Pick: Steelers -4.5
Total: Under 48
St. Louis at Minnesota
Prediction: Vikings 21-18 (NAILED IT!)
Pick: Vikings -2
Total: Under 40
Green Bay at Carolina
Prediction: Packers 24-23
Pick: Panthers +2.5
Total: Over 46
NY Giants at Tampa Bay
Prediction: Giants 22-21
Pick: Buccaneers +2.5
Total: Under 49.5
Atlanta at San Francisco
Prediction: 49ers 23-21
Pick: 49ers +7
Total: Under 44.5
Denver at Indianapolis
Prediction: Broncos 25-23
Pick: Colts +5.5
Total: Over 45
Philadelphia at Dallas
Prediction: Cowboys 25-23
Pick: Cowboys +3
Total: Over 44
Chicago at San Diego
Prediction: Chargers 25-21
Pick: Chargers -4
Total: Under 49.5
NFL Picks – Week 8
Total (weeks 1-8) – SU: 75-42 ATS: 61-54-4 O/U: 67-51-1
Week 1 – SU: 10-6 ATS: 10-6 O/U: 11-5
Week 2 – SU: 8-8 ATS: 9-7 O/U: 9-7
Week 3 – SU: 10-6 ATS: 2-14 O/U: 7-8-1
Week 4 – SU: 10-5 ATS: 9-6 O/U: 9-6
Week 5 – SU: 7-7 ATS: 9-4-1 O/U: 6-8
Week 6 – SU: 13-2 ATS: 9-4-1 O/U: 8-6
Week 7 – SU: 10-4 ATS: 6-8 O/U: 10-4
Week 8 – SU: 9-5 ATS: 7-5-2 O/U: 7-7
Miami at New England
Prediction: Patriots 29-22
Pick: Dolphins +8
Total: Under 51.5
Detroit at Kansas City
Prediction: Chiefs 24-21
Pick: Lions +4
Total: Under 45.5
Minnesota at Chicago
Prediction: Bears 22-21
Pick: Bears EVEN
Total: Over 42.5
Tampa Bay at Atlanta
Prediction: Falcons 26-20
Pick: Buccaneers +7
Total: Under 48.5
NY Giants at New Orleans
Prediction: Saints 27-23
Pick: Saints -3 PUSH
Total: Over 49.5
San Francisco at St. Louis
Prediction: 49ers 20-19
Pick: 49ers +8
Total: Under 39.5
Arizona at Cleveland
Prediction: Cardinals 22-21
Pick: Browns +6
Total: Under 46
Cincinnati at Pittsburgh
Prediction: Steelers 23-22
Pick: Bengals +1.5
Total: Under 48.5
San Diego at Baltimore
Prediction: Ravens 24-22
Pick: Chargers +3 PUSH
Total: Under 50.5
Tennessee at Houston
Prediction: Texans 24-19
Pick: Texans -4
Total: Under 43.5
NY Jets at Oakland
Prediction: Jets 21-20
Pick: Raiders +3
Total: Under 44.5
Seattle at Dallas
Prediction: Seahawks 22-20
Pick: Cowboys +6
Total: Over 41
Green Bay at Denver
Prediction: Broncos 25-23
Pick: Broncos +2.5
Total: Over 45.5
Indianapolis at Carolina
Prediction: Panthers 24-22
Pick:Colts +7
Total: Under 46.5
The greatest Royal/Met
A while ago I wrote a little Python code that used career data from Baseball-Reference Play Index (the best $36/year a number-loving baseball fan can spend) to answer the question: given a pair of teams, which player contributed the most to both teams? My metric for this is
(WAR for team 1 * WAR for team 2)
in order to privilege players who balanced their contributions to both teams.
So who was the greatest Royal/Met? In retrospect, this should have been obvious. How many of the top 5 can you guess?
View original post 57 more words
NFL Picks – Week 7
Total (weeks 1-7) – SU: 68-37 ATS: 54-49-2 O/U: 60-44-1
Week 1 – SU: 10-6 ATS: 10-6 O/U: 11-5
Week 2 – SU: 8-8 ATS: 9-7 O/U: 9-7
Week 3 – SU: 10-6 ATS: 2-14 O/U: 7-8-1
Week 4 – SU: 10-5 ATS: 9-6 O/U: 9-6
Week 5 – SU: 7-7 ATS: 9-4-1 O/U: 6-8
Week 6 – SU: 13-2 ATS: 9-4-1 O/U: 8-6
Week 7 – SU: 10-4 ATS: 6-8 O/U: 10-4
Seattle at San Francisco
Prediction: Seahawks 21-19
Pick: 49ers +6.5
Total: Under 42.5
Buffalo at Jacksonville
Prediction: Bills 21-19
Pick: Jaguars +4
Total: Under 41
Cleveland at St. Louis
Prediction: Rams 22-19
Pick: Browns +6
Total: Under 42
Pittsburgh at Kansas City
Prediction: Chiefs 22-21
Pick: Chiefs +2
Total: Under 44.5
Houston at Miami
Prediction: Dolphins 24-22
Pick: Texans +4.5
Total: Over 44.5
New York Jets at New England
Prediction: Patriots 27-20
Pick: Jets +9
Total: Under 48
Minnesota at Detroit
Prediction: Lions 24-21
Pick: Lions +2.5
Total: Over 44.5
Atlanta at Tennessee
Prediction: Falcons 24-22
Pick: Titans +5
Total: Under 47
Tampa Bay at Washington
Prediction: Washington Football Teams 23-19
Pick: Washington Football Team -3.5
Total: Under 43
New Orleans at Indianapolis
Prediction: Colts 26-25
Pick: Saints +4.5
Total: Under 52
Oakland at San Diego
Prediction: Chargers 26-19
Pick: Chargers -4
Total: Under 47
Dallas at New York Giants
Prediction: Giants 23-22
Pick: Cowboys +3.5
Total: Over 45
Philadelphia at Carolina
Prediction: Panthers 24-23
Pick: Eagles +3
Total: Under 46
Baltimore at Arizona
Prediction: Cardinals 22-21
Pick: Ravens +9
Total: Under 48
There are an unexpectedly large number of undefeated NFL teams left
Through 6 weeks of the NFL season, there are currently five (FIVE!?!?!) undefeated teams in the NFL: The Patriots, Bengals, Broncos, Panthers, and Packers. This seems like a lot.
So, as suggested by someone on twitter, I ran a simulation to see how rare this was. I actually ran 2 quick simulations, the first assuming that each game was a coin flip and the second using the point spread as an implied win probability.
First Simulation
Let’s assume that each game is a coin flip. A winner and loser is chosen for each game using the actual schedule, and we count how many teams are undefeated after 6 weeks. I simulated the first 6 weeks of the season 100000 times. How often should we expect to see 5 undefeated teams if all games are a coin flip? Basically never.
In just about 50% of the simulations there were 0 undefeated teams. There were 1, 2, and 3 undefeated teams left in about 37.5%, 11%, and 1.8% of simulations. In another 147 out of the 100000 simulations, there were 4 undefeated teams, which leaves only 10 of those 100000 seasons were there 5 undefeated teams (and never more than 5). So if games were truly coin flips, we’d basically never see 5 undefeated teams after 6 weeks given this current schedule. But games aren’t coin flips. So we can do a bit better.
Second Simulation
Using the point spreads for the first six weeks of the 2015 NFL season, implied win probabilities were calculated for each game. Game were then simulated based on these implied probabilities from the point spread. I only ran 10,000 simulations here, but the results are largely the same. It’s very rare to see 5 undefeated teams.
In 10,000 simulations, there were 0 undefeated teams 6 weeks into the season about 40% of the time. There were 1, 2, or 3 undefeated teams about 40% , 16%, and 3.2%, respectively. In 26 simulations there were there 4 undefeated teams and finally, in only 4 simulations were there 5 undefeated teams. Even when we account for the individual game win probabilities, it’s still incredibly unlikely to see 5 undefeated teams after 6 weeks.
Finally, here’s a table for the number of times each individual team was undefeated in 10,000 simulated seasons based on implied win probabilities based on the spread.
Cheers.
NFL Picks – Week 6
Total (weeks 1-6) – SU: 57-34 ATS: 48-41-2 O/U: 50-40-1
Week 1 – SU: 10-6 ATS: 10-6 O/U: 11-5
Week 2 – SU: 8-8 ATS: 9-7 O/U: 9-7
Week 3 – SU: 10-6 ATS: 2-14 O/U: 7-8-1
Week 4 – SU: 10-5 ATS: 9-6 O/U: 9-6
Week 5 – SU: 7-7 ATS: 9-4-1 O/U: 6-8
Week 6 – SU: 12-2 ATS: 9-4-1 O/U: 8-6
Atlanta at New Orleans
Prediction: Saints 29-24 (65.1%)
Pick: Saints +3
Total: Over 51
Denver at Cleveland
Prediction: Broncos 26-22 (62.6%)
Pick: Broncos -4
Total: Over 42
Cincinnati at Buffalo
Prediction: Bills 21-20 (51.1%)
Pick: Bills +10
Total: Under 42.5
Kansas City at Minnesota
Prediction: Vikings 21-20 (50.8%)
Pick: Chiefs +3.5
Total: Under 44
Houston at Jacksonville
Prediction: Texans 22-18 (60.5%)
Pick: Texans -1.5
Total: Under 43
Chicago at Detroit
Prediction: Lions 25-21 (61.4%)
Pick: Lions -3 PUSH
Total: Over 43
Washington at NY Jets
Prediction: Jets 21-20 (51.0%)
Pick: Washington Football Team +6
Total: Over 40.5
Arizona at Pittsburgh
Prediction: Steelers 24-20 (60.3%)
Pick: Steelers +3
Total: Under 44.5
Miami at Tennessee
Prediction: Dolphins 21-20 (51.9%(
Pick: Dolphins +2.5
Total: Under 43.5
Carolina at Seattle
Prediction: Seahawks 24-17 (68.1%)
Pick: Panthers +7
Total: Under 41
San Diego at Green Bay
Prediction: Packers 27-22 (64.5%)
Pick: Chargers +10
Total: Under 50.5
Baltimore at San Francisco
Prediction: 49ers 22-19 (58.1%)
Pick: 49ers +2.5
Total: Under 44
New England at Indianapolis
Prediction: Patriots 26-25 (51.0%)
Pick: Colts +8
Total: Under 55
NY Giants at Philadelphia
Prediction: Eagles 27-22 (62.8%)
Pick: Eagles -4
Total: Under 50
The Cubs spot in the MLB playoff bracket is basically ideal for them
The MLB playoffs are stupid. That being said, I’m going to watch every game because the playoffs are awesome.
Let me clear things up a bit. The playoffs are awesome. The structure of the playoffs is stupid. Let’s start with the dumbest of all: the one game playoff. Nothing in baseball (with the reasonable exception of regular season ties) is settled in one game. And yet, we have a one game playoff for some reason (money).
Next we have this 5 game divisional series. This isn’t nearly as bad as the one game playoff (which is probably the dumbest thing in all playoffs of all sports). However, my problem with the divisional series isn’t the length (though 7 games would be better), it’s that they don’t seed. The top team (i.e. most regular season wins) plays the winner of the wild card game. That’s how you end up with the Cardinals and the Cubs, arguably the two best teams in baseball this year, playing each other in the divisional series. These two teams shouldn’t meet until the NLCS. That would be an awesome series.
The Cubs might not win the World Series, but getting to play the Cardinals in the NLDS is the best they can hope for.
BUT……If you’re a Cubs fan, the playoffs are absolutely IDEAL for the cubs. Let’s go ahead and make some assumptions and we’ll see why. Let’s assume that the number of wins during the regular season is a reasonable measure of how good a team is. If that’s the case, then the three best teams in baseball are the Cardinals, Pirates, and Cubs, in that order. So under this assumption, the only teams in baseball that were better than the Cubs were the Cardinals and the Pirates.
Now think about this: If you want to beat a team that is better than you (i.e. will win more than 50% of the time in an infinite number of games), would you rather play them in a long series or a short series? The answer is a short series. And that’s exactly what the Cubs get. They play the Pirates in a one game playoff and they get the Cardinals (i.e. the “best” team in baseball in a five game series). It’s all falling Cubs.
Let’s do a simulation to see how much of an advantage this is. For the simulation (this is going to be a really simple simulation) we’re going to assume that in each series the the probability that team A beats team B is the same for each game. So we need to define four probabilities to assess the probability that the Cubs win the World Series, one of reach round of the playoffs. Let’s start by assuming that the Cubs have a 0.5 probability of beating every playoff team in baseball in one game except the Cardinals. And we’ll let the probability that the Cubs beat the Cardinals vary between 0 and 1. Then we’ll compare the odds that the Cubs win the World Series is they played the Cardinals in the NLDS (as in reality) versus the odds of winning the World Series if they played the Cardinals in the NLCS. If the probability that the Cubs beat the Cardinals in 0.5, it doesn’t matter when the Cubs play them (i.e the odds ratio is 1). However, if the Cubs are less than 0.5 to win each game the advantage grows quickly. If the probability that the Cubs beat the Cardinals is 0.25 (very unrealistic), the Cubs odds of winning the World Series increase by about 45% because the get to play the Cardinals in the division series. If the Cubs have a 0.4 probability of winning each game against the Cardinals, they have about a 10% increase in the odds of winning with World Series and at a 0.45 probability of winning each game, their odds are increased by about 4%. The plot below shows the probability of a Cubs win in each game over the Cardinals on the x-axis and the y-axis shows the odds ratio comparing the odds of the Cubs winning the World Series if they played the Cardinals in the NLDS as opposed to the NLCS.
So, given these playoff teams, the Cubs have nearly the ideal set-up for themselves to win the World Series. (The one game wild card “series” is still stupid though.) They play the “best” teams in shorter series and they will get the “weaker” teams in longer series. I’m not saying the Cubs will win the World Series, but I am guaranteeing it. I was in Boston in 2004 when the Red Sox ended the curse, and now I’m in Chicago in 2015……..just sayin’………..And Back to the Future and stuff………
You can find the code to my (extremely simple) simulation here. Please let me know if I screwed something up (I’m sure you would anyway even if I didn’t ask…..)
Cheers.
An “Invitation” to Address World’s Leading Tech Conference or A Brief History of Biostatistics Ryan Gosling
The play here was clearly to accept without giving them any more information.
NFL Picks – Week 5
Total (weeks 1-5) – SU: 46-31 ATS: 39-37-1 O/U: 42-34-1
Week 1 – SU: 10-6 ATS: 10-6 O/U: 11-5
Week 2 – SU: 8-8 ATS: 9-7 O/U: 9-7
Week 3 – SU: 10-6 ATS: 2-14 O/U: 7-8-1
Week 4 – SU: 10-5 ATS: 9-6 O/U: 9-6
Week 5 – SU: 7-7 ATS: 9-4-1 O/U: 6-8
Indianapolis at Houston
Prediction: Texans 24-22 (53.5%)
Pick: Colts +5
Total: Over 41
Jacksonville at Tampa Bay
Prediction: Buccaneers 22-17 (63.9%)
Pick: Buccaneers -3
Total: Under 42.5
Chicago at Kansas City
Prediction: Chiefs 23-20 (58.2%)
Pick: Bears +10
Total: Under 45
Washington at Atlanta
Prediction: Falcons 25-23 (54.6%)
Pick: Washington Football Team +7.5
Total: Under 48
Seattle at Cincinnati
Prediction: Seahawks 21-20 (54.8%)
Pick: Seahawks +3 (PUSH)
Total: Under 43.5
New Orleans at Philadelphia
Prediction: Eagles 28-26 (53.9%)
Pick: Saints +5.5
Total: Over 48.5
Cleveland at Baltimore
Prediction: Ravens 24-18 (65.6%)
Pick: Browns +7
Total: Under 43.5
St. Louis at Green Bay
Prediction: Packers 27-19 (70.7%)
Pick: Rams +9.5
Total: Under 46.5
Buffalo at Tennessee
Prediction: Bills 21-20 (51.4%)
Pick: Titans +3
Total: Under 42
Arizona at Detroit
Prediction: Lions 24-20 (61.8%)
Pick: Lions +3
Total: Under 44
New England at Dallas
Prediction: Patriots 26-25 (51.2%)
Pick: Cowboys +10
Total: Over 50.5
Denver at Oakland
Prediction: Broncos 27-20 (69.5%)
Pick: Broncos -5.5
Total: Over 43.5
San Francisco at NY Giants
Prediction: 49ers 21-20 (52.6%)
Pick: 49ers +7
Total: Under 43
Pittsburgh at San Diego
Prediction: Chargers 24-23 (55.4%)
Pick: Steelers +3.5
Total: Over 45.5
Stats in the Wild 