Stats in the Wild

I recently submitted by entry to this Major League baseball data visualization contest.  My entry is below (click on it and zoom in and out to see each graph):

Each graph displays games played, home runs, stolen bases, hits, and on base percentage per season for each player as well as their career on base percentage.  Hits are represented by the color of the bars (darker equals more hits), the width on the bottom of the bar is game played and the width of the top of the bar is home runs.  The dashed line is career on base percentage and the dot represented the on base percentage in a given season.  The diameter of the dot displays the number of stolen bases for a given season.

I don’t think I have a chance to win because apparently you were supposed to visualize the top 10 hitter AND (not OR) the top ten pitchers.  Oh well.  I think my plots are still pretty cool.

Cheers.

My grandmother passed away Wednesday night.  She was 93 years old.  She had 9 children, 14 grandchildren, and 10 great-grandchildren.

Amazing.

Here is an excerpt from her obituary:

Pauline would eventually meet her future husband, Lieutenant Michael Toms, on a ship heading for Pearl Harbor, Hawaii, where they would both survive the infamous attack on December 7, 1941.

Amazing.

Also, here is a joke that she told at Thanksgiving or Christmas a few years ago:

Two guys were sitting in a room in their nursing home with the door open.  Some women in the nursing home thought the men weren’t getting enough excitement and decided to run past the door naked.  The men saw the women streak by out of the corners of their eyes.  One of the men asked the other, “Did you see that? What were they wearing?”  The other man responded, “I don’t know, but it needs to be ironed.”

Amazing.

Pauline Evelyn Toms (1922-2015)

My record last year

Total (weeks 1-9) – SU: 83-47 ATS: 66-62-4 O/U: 75-56-1

Week 1 – SU: 10-6 ATS: 10-6 O/U: 11-5

Week 2 – SU: 8-8 ATS: 9-7 O/U: 9-7

Week 3 – SU: 10-6 ATS: 2-14 O/U: 7-8-1

Week 4 – SU: 10-5 ATS: 9-6 O/U: 9-6

Week 5 – SU: 7-7 ATS: 9-4-1 O/U: 6-8

Week 6 – SU: 13-2 ATS: 9-4-1 O/U: 8-6

Week 7 – SU: 10-4 ATS: 6-8 O/U: 10-4

Week 8 – SU: 9-5 ATS: 7-5-2 O/U: 7-7

Week 9 – SU: 8-5 ATS: 5-8 O/U: 8-5

Cleveland at Cincinnati

Prediction: Bengals 25-19

Pick: Browns +13

Total: Under 45.5

Tennessee at New Orleans

Prediction: Saints 28-20

Pick: Saints -7.5

Total: Over 48

Miami at Buffalo

Prediction: Bills 22-21

Pick: Dolphins +3

Total: Under 44

Washington at New England

Prediction: Patriots 29-21

Pick: Washington Football Team +14

Total: Under 52

Jacksonville at NY Jets

Prediction: Jets 23-17

Pick: Jets -2.5

Total: Under 42.5

Oakland at Pittsburgh

Prediction: Steelers 25-19

Pick: Steelers -4.5

Total: Under 48

St. Louis at Minnesota

Prediction: Vikings 21-18 (NAILED IT!)

Pick: Vikings -2

Total: Under 40

Green Bay at Carolina

Prediction: Packers 24-23

Pick: Panthers +2.5

Total: Over 46

NY Giants at Tampa Bay

Prediction: Giants 22-21

Pick: Buccaneers +2.5

Total: Under 49.5

Atlanta at San Francisco

Prediction: 49ers 23-21

Pick: 49ers +7

Total: Under 44.5

Denver at Indianapolis

Prediction: Broncos 25-23

Pick: Colts +5.5

Total: Over 45

Philadelphia at Dallas

Prediction: Cowboys 25-23

Pick: Cowboys +3

Total: Over 44

Chicago at San Diego

Prediction: Chargers 25-21

Pick: Chargers -4

Total: Under 49.5

My record last year

Total (weeks 1-8) – SU: 75-42 ATS: 61-54-4 O/U: 67-51-1

Week 1 – SU: 10-6 ATS: 10-6 O/U: 11-5

Week 2 – SU: 8-8 ATS: 9-7 O/U: 9-7

Week 3 – SU: 10-6 ATS: 2-14 O/U: 7-8-1

Week 4 – SU: 10-5 ATS: 9-6 O/U: 9-6

Week 5 – SU: 7-7 ATS: 9-4-1 O/U: 6-8

Week 6 – SU: 13-2 ATS: 9-4-1 O/U: 8-6

Week 7 – SU: 10-4 ATS: 6-8 O/U: 10-4

Week 8 – SU: 9-5 ATS: 7-5-2 O/U: 7-7

Miami at New England

Prediction: Patriots 29-22

Pick: Dolphins +8

Total: Under 51.5

Detroit at Kansas City

Prediction: Chiefs 24-21

Pick: Lions +4

Total: Under 45.5

Minnesota at Chicago

Prediction: Bears 22-21

Pick: Bears EVEN

Total: Over 42.5

Tampa Bay at Atlanta

Prediction: Falcons 26-20

Pick: Buccaneers +7

Total: Under 48.5 

NY Giants at New Orleans

Prediction: Saints 27-23

Pick: Saints -3 PUSH

Total: Over 49.5

San Francisco at St. Louis

Prediction: 49ers 20-19

Pick: 49ers +8

Total: Under 39.5

Arizona at Cleveland

Prediction: Cardinals 22-21

Pick: Browns +6

Total: Under 46

Cincinnati at Pittsburgh

Prediction: Steelers 23-22

Pick: Bengals +1.5

Total: Under 48.5

San Diego at Baltimore

Prediction: Ravens 24-22

Pick: Chargers +3 PUSH

Total: Under 50.5

Tennessee at Houston

Prediction: Texans 24-19

Pick: Texans -4

Total: Under 43.5

NY Jets at Oakland

Prediction: Jets 21-20

Pick: Raiders +3

Total: Under 44.5

Seattle at Dallas

Prediction: Seahawks 22-20

Pick: Cowboys +6

Total: Over 41

Green Bay at Denver

Prediction: Broncos 25-23

Pick: Broncos +2.5

Total: Over 45.5

Indianapolis at Carolina

Prediction: Panthers 24-22

Pick:Colts +7

Total: Under 46.5

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

My record last year

Total (weeks 1-7) – SU: 68-37 ATS: 54-49-2 O/U: 60-44-1

Week 1 – SU: 10-6 ATS: 10-6 O/U: 11-5

Week 2 – SU: 8-8 ATS: 9-7 O/U: 9-7

Week 3 – SU: 10-6 ATS: 2-14 O/U: 7-8-1

Week 4 – SU: 10-5 ATS: 9-6 O/U: 9-6

Week 5 – SU: 7-7 ATS: 9-4-1 O/U: 6-8

Week 6 – SU: 13-2 ATS: 9-4-1 O/U: 8-6

Week 7 – SU: 10-4 ATS: 6-8 O/U: 10-4

Seattle at San Francisco

Prediction: Seahawks 21-19

Pick: 49ers +6.5

Total: Under 42.5

Buffalo at Jacksonville

Prediction: Bills 21-19

Pick: Jaguars +4

Total: Under 41

Cleveland at St. Louis

Prediction: Rams 22-19

Pick: Browns +6

Total: Under 42

Pittsburgh at Kansas City

Prediction: Chiefs 22-21

Pick: Chiefs +2

Total: Under 44.5

Houston at Miami

Prediction: Dolphins 24-22

Pick: Texans +4.5

Total: Over 44.5

New York Jets at New England

Prediction: Patriots 27-20

Pick: Jets +9

Total: Under 48

Minnesota at Detroit

Prediction: Lions 24-21

Pick: Lions +2.5

Total: Over 44.5

Atlanta at Tennessee

Prediction: Falcons 24-22

Pick: Titans +5

Total: Under 47

Tampa Bay at Washington

Prediction: Washington Football Teams 23-19

Pick: Washington Football Team -3.5

Total: Under 43

New Orleans at Indianapolis

Prediction: Colts 26-25

Pick: Saints +4.5

Total: Under 52

Oakland at San Diego

Prediction: Chargers 26-19

Pick: Chargers -4

Total: Under 47

Dallas at New York Giants

Prediction: Giants 23-22

Pick: Cowboys +3.5

Total: Over 45

Philadelphia at Carolina

Prediction: Panthers 24-23

Pick: Eagles +3

Total: Under 46

Baltimore at Arizona

Prediction: Cardinals 22-21

Pick: Ravens +9

Total: Under 48

Through 6 weeks of the NFL season, there are currently five (FIVE!?!?!) undefeated teams in the NFL: The Patriots, Bengals, Broncos, Panthers, and Packers.   This seems like a lot.

So, as suggested by someone on twitter, I ran a simulation to see how rare this was.  I actually ran 2 quick simulations, the first assuming that each game was a coin flip and the second using the point spread as an implied win probability.

First Simulation

Let’s assume that each game is a coin flip.  A winner and loser is chosen for each game using the actual schedule, and we count how many teams are undefeated after 6 weeks.  I simulated the first 6 weeks of the season 100000 times.  How often should we expect to see 5 undefeated teams if all games are a coin flip?  Basically never.

In just about 50% of the simulations there were 0 undefeated teams.  There were 1, 2, and 3 undefeated teams left in about 37.5%, 11%, and 1.8% of simulations.  In another 147 out of the 100000 simulations, there were 4 undefeated teams, which leaves only 10 of those 100000 seasons were there 5 undefeated teams (and never more than 5).  So if games were truly coin flips, we’d basically never see 5 undefeated teams after 6 weeks given this current schedule.  But games aren’t coin flips.  So we can do a bit better.

Second Simulation

Using the point spreads for the first six weeks of the 2015 NFL season, implied win probabilities were calculated for each game.  Game were then simulated based on these implied probabilities from the point spread.  I only ran 10,000 simulations here, but the results are largely the same.  It’s very rare to see 5 undefeated teams.

In 10,000 simulations, there were 0 undefeated teams 6 weeks into the season about 40% of the time.  There were 1, 2, or 3 undefeated teams about 40% , 16%, and 3.2%, respectively.  In 26 simulations there were there 4 undefeated teams and finally, in only 4 simulations were there 5 undefeated teams.  Even when we account for the individual game win probabilities, it’s still incredibly unlikely to see 5 undefeated teams after 6 weeks.

Finally, here’s a table for the number of times each individual team was undefeated in 10,000 simulated seasons based on implied win probabilities based on the spread.

Cheers.

Source: World statistics day