(this was written before the games but apparently there was an upload error… sorry about) So those Lions eh?  Basically, we have most of our playoffs clear, and we have a bunch teams that are leaning on a lot of other things to happen, so I made a graph of the teams on the bubble, to see where everything stands.

 

Basically, if the Chargers or Steelers make it, or the Saints don’t, something nutty happened. Don’t ask me why I included the Niners, they’re in no matter what…

Less pithy this week because of the holidays, but enjoy. I’ll do a season post-mortem after this week,

 

Last Friday, the blog Vegas Watch posted a piece calling out Football Outsiders for some seemingly outrageous basic math mistakes.  Apparently, Aaron Schatz did not like the post.

Schatz’s response annoyed me.  The entire FO brand is all about smart statistical analysis.  So when you make so many outrageous basic statistical mistakes in one of your articles on a site like ESPN (behind a pay wall no less!) you’re going to get called out.  And I don’t even think Vegas Watch was being that big of an “asshole”.  Vegas Watch never said anything personal about the author, all of the criticism they delivered was entirely about the substance of the article and the editorial staff (or lack there of).  Sure it was smug, but that’s what they do.  As they say: “Vegas Watch: Blogging with an unearned smug sense of superiority.”  (Which, as it turns out, is from a tweet by former FO/current Grantland writer Bill Barnwell. Weird?)  So, FO doesn’t like it when people smugly call out their mistakes.

Well, I’ve tried to (tried to) point out some their mistakes in a non-smug manner.  For instance, I wrote about their flawed “findings” about place kickers.  I thought I was being polite, and I got this, what I would consider, smug response from Schatz:

Well, you can’t have it both ways.  You can’t get all bent out of shape when someone smugly points out your mistakes on the one hand, and then smugly dismiss someone who politely points out your statistical errors.  You also can’t tout yourselves as using advanced statistical methods in the analysis of football, and then make silly, simple, basic, statistical mistakes in an article that is going to be read by an enormous number of readers .

Cheers.

Pro: The rankings are based on how a team performs and accounts for how many points they would be expected to score based on their statistical output such as rushing yards, passing yards, etc.  This ranking considers past seasons statistics with heavier weights placed on games that are more recent.  This ranking is the more predictive of the two.

Retro: This ranking only considers strength of schedule and the actual outcome of games in 2013.  This is a ranking of who actually has had the best season.

SOS: Is strength of schedule.

Team Pro Retro W L SOS Seattle 1 1 12 2 9 Denver 4 2 11 3 25 NewOrleans 6 3 10 4 6 Carolina 2 4 10 4 8 SanFrancisco 5 5 10 4 7 Arizona 7 6 9 5 4 KansasCity 3 7 11 3 32 NewEngland 9 8 10 4 24 Cincinnati 8 9 9 5 30 Indianapolis 13 10 9 5 14 Miami 14 11 8 6 20 Dallas 17 12 7 7 21 SanDiego 10 13 7 7 19 Chicago 18 14 8 6 26 St.Louis 12 15 6 8 1 Philadelphia 11 16 8 6 23 Baltimore 16 17 8 6 28 Detroit 15 18 7 7 29 GreenBay 20 19 8 6 27 Pittsburgh 21 20 6 8 31 Tennessee 19 21 5 9 16 NYGiants 29 22 5 9 10 TampaBay 22 23 4 10 2 Atlanta 23 24 4 10 3 Minnesota 25 25 4 10 15 Buffalo 24 26 5 9 11 NYJets 31 27 6 8 17 Cleveland 26 28 4 10 22 Oakland 27 29 4 10 18 Jacksonville 32 30 4 10 12 Washington 28 31 3 11 13 Houston 30 32 2 12 5

 

It’s another delightful week of playoff probabilities. With the end of the season just two short weeks away, things are clearing up pretty nicely. Or maybe not at all…

The Lions took a real nice nosedive over the last few weeks, and they can kiss the playoff goodbye. Additionally, the Packer’s tie against the Vikings, while sad on its surface, was actually good, as it boosts them past the Lions. The Bears are in the driver seat, but we can all just agree the NFC North is pathetic. Speaking of sad against the Vikings and pathetic in general, the NFC East! The Eagles could have put away the division, but nope. And yet, they hang onto the East as well as the three seed, thanks to the sadness and patheticness (that’s a perfectly cromulent word) of the Bears and Cowboys.

The big game in the NFC this week is also the big game in sorting out the playoffs, the Saints at the Panthers. The loser of that game has to hope for help from the opponents of the 49ers to hang onto the fifth seed, while the winner should be a near-lock for the two-seed (this is presuming the Seahawks don’t stumble, and take the first seed.)

Over in the AFC, the big Ravens/Dolphins dogfight continues. This is a big week, since the Ravens play the Pats while the Dolphins draw the festering corpse known in most places as the Buffalo Festering Corpses. If the Ravens survive the Patriots, they close the season with the Bengals, who could actually be fighting for the two seed and a bye (again, assuming a Pats loss in week 16.) But the Dolphins still have the Jets, so despite the Ravens having the tiebreaker, the odds are in favor of the Fins.

There are some longshots out there. You can see from the chart, the Steelers and Chargers still have a chance, tiny though it may be. Likewise, the Cardinals, Packers, Lions and Cowboys are still alive. All of these teams need a lot of losing to take place to stand much of a shot, but they could feasibly sneak in. This is what we all love about the NFL: mediocre teams playing out the string, hoping for other mediocre teams to lose! Catch the fever!

Pro: The rankings are based on how a team performs and accounts for how many points they would be expected to score based on their statistical output such as rushing yards, passing yards, etc.  This ranking considers past seasons statistics with heavier weights placed on games that are more recent.  This ranking is the more predictive of the two.

Retro: This ranking only considers strength of schedule and the actual outcome of games in 2013.  This is a ranking of who actually has had the best season.

SOS: Is strength of schedule.

Team Pro Retro W L sos Seattle 2 1 7 6 12 Denver 4 2 6 7 24 NewOrleans 5 3 6 7 6 Carolina 1 4 7 6 9 NewEngland 8 5 6 7 25 KansasCity 3 6 6 7 31 SanFrancisco 6 7 6 7 7 Arizona 9 8 6 7 4 Cincinnati 7 9 7 6 32 Philadelphia 10 10 6 7 22 Dallas 16 11 7 6 19 Indianapolis 15 12 7 6 14 Miami 14 13 7 6 21 SanDiego 11 14 7 6 13 Chicago 19 15 6 7 26 Baltimore 17 16 6 7 27 Detroit 13 17 7 6 29 St.Louis 12 18 7 6 2 GreenBay 21 19 6 7 28 Tennessee 20 20 7 6 20 NYGiants 28 21 7 6 8 TampaBay 18 22 6 7 1 Pittsburgh 22 23 7 6 30 Atlanta 23 24 7 6 3 NYJets 31 25 6 7 18 Cleveland 24 26 6 7 23 Oakland 27 27 7 6 16 Jacksonville 32 28 7 6 17 Minnesota 26 29 7 6 15 Buffalo 25 30 6 7 10 Washington 30 31 6 7 11 Houston 29 32 6 7 5

Updated: December 12, 2013

This post is a little late in coming, thanks to a few real life things that popped up, but here we are. Thursday nights Chargers-Broncos game was inconsequential.

As for last week and the playoff probabilities, we have the formula we use solidifying the AFC and it actually contrasts the official picture (we are not the only ones). According to NFL tie-breaking procedures, the Ravens are currently in, but as you can see, we have their actual playoff probability under .5 while Dolphins who are currently just outside the bubble in real life enjoy about a 2/3 probability of making the playoffs. As I alluded to last week, it’s all about the remaining schedules. The Dolphins play the Pats today in their last game against a winning team while the Ravens remaining schedule is all winning teams. (Both play the Patriots, but the Dolphins then play the Bills and the Jets, while the Ravens get Detroit, followed by the Pats, then the Bengals). We’ll see how our formula stands up.

Over in the NFC, the East and South both flip-flopped in terms of leaders, which matters in the East but not in the South. The Saints and Panthers are both locks to go in, it’s just the battle for the two-seed. In the east, the Eagles and the Cowboys for the third time in the last four weeks, keeping fans of mediocrity on their edge of their seats. I guess the Eagles haven’t been THAT mediocre, but still.  Speaking of mediocrity, check on the NFC North. At the moment the Lions have the tiebreaker, as well as the edge in our numbers (ever so slightly). The comforting thing is knowing that someone has to win that division. And then get a homefield advantage against better teams in either the 49ers or Panthers.

Overall Records

SU: 115-76-1 

ATS: 84-101-7  (-24.64 units)

O/U: 99-87-6 (+3 units)

 Week 1 (10-6 SU, 5-10-1 ATS, 7-9 O/U)

Week 2 (11-5 SU, 5-10-1 ATS, 9-7 O/U)

Week 3 (7-9 SU, 5-9-2 ATS, 6-10 O/U)

Week 4 (8-7 SU, 6-8-1 ATS, 7-8 O/U)

Week 5 (8-6 SU, 4-10 ATS, 9-5 O/U)

Week 6 (11-4 SU, 7-8 ATS, 8-7 O/U)

Week 7 (7-8 SU, 7-8 ATS, 7-8 O/U)

Week 8 (11-2 SU, 5-8 ATS, 7-5-1 O/U)

Week 9 (8-5 SU, 9-4 ATS, 8-3-2 O/U)

 Week 10 (6-7 SU, 7-5-1 ATS, 6-6-1 O/U)

 Week 11 (9-6 SU, 11-4 ATS, 8-7 O/U)

 Week 12 (6-6-1 SU, 8-6 ATS, 7-5-2 O/U)

 Week 13 (12-4 SU, 5-10-1 ATS, 9-7 O/U)

 Week 14 (0-1 SU, 0-1 ATS, 1-0 O/U)

December 5, 2013

Houston Texans at Jacksonville Jaguars

Prediction: Texans 26-21

Pick: Texans -3.5

OU: Over 43.5

December 8, 2013

Atlanta Falcons at Green Bay Packers

Prediction: Packers 27-26

Pick: Falcons +4

OU: Over 44

Buffalo Bills at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Prediction: Bills 24-23

Pick: Bills +3

OU: Over 43.5

Carolina Panthers at New Orleans Saints

Prediction: Panthers 23-17

Pick: Panthers +3.5

OU: Under 47.5

Cleveland Browns at New England Patriots

Prediction: Patriots 29-20

Pick: Browns +10.5

OU: Over 47.5

Detroit Lions at Philadelphia Eagles

Prediction: Eagles 28-27

Pick: Lions +2.5

OU: Over 54

Indianapolis Colts at Cincinnati Bengals

Prediction: Bengals 23-20

Pick: Colts +7

OU: Under 43.5

Kansas City Chiefs at Washington Redskins

Prediction: Chiefs 30-19

Pick: Chiefs -3.5

OU: Over 44

Miami Dolphins at Pittsburgh Steelers

Prediction: Dolphins 21-19

Pick: Dolphins +3.5

OU: Over 40.5

Minnesota Vikings at Baltimore Ravens

Prediction: Ravens 24-20

Pick: Vikings +6.5

OU: Over 42

New York Giants at San Diego Chargers

Prediction: Chargers 24-20

Pick: Chargers -4

OU: Under 47.5

Oakland Raiders at New York Jets

Prediction: Raiders 21-17

Pick: Raiders +3

OU: Over 39.5

Seattle Seahawks at San Francisco 49ers

Prediction: Seahawks 20-17

Pick: Seahawks +2.5

OU: Under 41.5

St. Louis Rams at Arizona Cardinals

Prediction: Cardinals 24-23

Pick: Rams +5

OU: Over 41.5

Tennessee Titans at Denver Broncos

Prediction: Broncos 33-24

Pick: Titans 13.5

OU:  Over 50

December 8, 2013

Dallas Cowboys at Chicago Bears

Prediction: Cowboys 28-26

Pick: Cowboys -1.5

OU: Over 48

So some interesting things going on here.

Our numbers put Carolina just ahead of the Saints, even though they’re tied. They have both of their games against one another left. I think, since the other two teams on their respective schedules are bad teams, just different bad teams (Jets and Falcons for the Panthers, Rams and Bucs for the Saints), the difference is attributable to the fact that the Saints have the short week coming off their Monday loss to the Seahawks (not to mention some mechanical issues keeping them in Seattle). It’s a small difference, and not particularly meaningful, since they’re both playoff-bound. Sunday will go some way in figuring out gets which playoff spot.

Looks like the NFC North wrapped itself up with the Lions’ big win over the Packers on Thanksgiving coupled with the Bears losing performance against Minnesota. The Niners might have righted their ship, so they’re in good shape as the current 6th seed, while the Cardinals’ brief flirtation with relevance is once again tucked away, as it won’t be needed again util 2014, thank you Philly. Speaking of, the Cowboys and the Eagles kept pace, so week 17 Philly at Dallas could be a pretty big deal, as it is probable the loser of the NFC East will be sitting right at home.

Over in the AFC, the Dolphins and Ravens apparently decided they want to play football instead of whatever crap the majority of the AFC has been doing all year. The Titans, Chargers, and Steelers all really plummeted. And the Jets… well they’ve always been terrible, but now I think we can officially call them thusly.

The AFC Wild Card #2 all comes down to a footrace between Baltimore and Miami. They both play New England, and as I’ve said before, Bill Belichick is shameless when it comes to meaningless games (fun game, google “Belichick running up score” and count how many articles come up referring to the same game. I stopped at the first page, but literally none of the articles refer to the same incident.) Anyway, the Ravens play the crummy Vikings, plus first place Lions, the first place Bengals. The Dolphins, on the other hand, play the essentially finished Steelers (though they have a shot and doubtlessly will not forfeit the game, you can take that prediction to Vegas), plus the last place Bills and the blight-upon-humanity known as the Jets. So I’d say the schedule favors the Dolphins by a good amount.