Week 14 NFL Playoff Probabilities
This post is a little late in coming, thanks to a few real life things that popped up, but here we are. Thursday nights Chargers-Broncos game was inconsequential.
As for last week and the playoff probabilities, we have the formula we use solidifying the AFC and it actually contrasts the official picture (we are not the only ones). According to NFL tie-breaking procedures, the Ravens are currently in, but as you can see, we have their actual playoff probability under .5 while Dolphins who are currently just outside the bubble in real life enjoy about a 2/3 probability of making the playoffs. As I alluded to last week, it’s all about the remaining schedules. The Dolphins play the Pats today in their last game against a winning team while the Ravens remaining schedule is all winning teams. (Both play the Patriots, but the Dolphins then play the Bills and the Jets, while the Ravens get Detroit, followed by the Pats, then the Bengals). We’ll see how our formula stands up.
Over in the NFC, the East and South both flip-flopped in terms of leaders, which matters in the East but not in the South. The Saints and Panthers are both locks to go in, it’s just the battle for the two-seed. In the east, the Eagles and the Cowboys for the third time in the last four weeks, keeping fans of mediocrity on their edge of their seats. I guess the Eagles haven’t been THAT mediocre, but still. Speaking of mediocrity, check on the NFC North. At the moment the Lions have the tiebreaker, as well as the edge in our numbers (ever so slightly). The comforting thing is knowing that someone has to win that division. And then get a homefield advantage against better teams in either the 49ers or Panthers.