Predicting the Sweet 16 using a classification tree
Cheers.
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Rankings as of 9:52pm on 3/11/2012.
Previous rankings are here.
Breakdown by conference: 3, 4, 5, 3,
0, 2, 2, 2, 4ACC Big East Big Ten Big 12
Pac 12SEC MWC MVC OtherTeam Rank Change Record AP Sagarin Kentucky 1 ↑1 32-2 1 Syracuse 2 ↓1 31-2 5 Michigan St 3 ↑4 27-7 3 Ohio St 4 ↑2 27-7 2 Duke 5 ↓2 27-6 11 North Carolina 6 ↓1 29-5 6 Missouri 7 ↑2 30-4 7 Kansas 8 ↓4 27-6 4 Marquette 9 ↓1 25-7 15 Baylor 10 – 27-7 12 Indiana 11 – 25-8 9 Louisville 12 ↑7 26-9 18 Wisconsin 13 – 24-9 8 Wichita St 14 ↓2 27-5 10 Creighton 15 – 28-5 25 Michigan 16 ↓2 24-9 23 Georgetown 17 ↓1 23-8 14 Murray St 18 ↓1 30-1 40 Florida St 19 ↑7 24-9 21 Memphis 20 ↑3 26-8 13 Vanderbilt 21 ↑6 24-10 20 St. Mary’s-CA 22 ↓1 27-5 35 New Mexico 23 ↑6 27-6 16 San Diego St 24 ↑5 26-7 46 Temple 25 ↓7 24-7 36 26-35: Gonzaga, Florida, Cincinnati, UNLV, Saint Louis, Purdue, Notre Dame, Virginia, Alabama, Southern Miss
BCS: My offer still stands…….if you want to contact me you can send me a tweet @StatsInTheWild.
Cheers.
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Below are my projections for the NCAA tournament field. Other good projections can be found here provided by the geeks at TeamRankings.com. You can check out my rankings here.
Bubble Watch
St. Bonaventure ruined someone’s March. I think that team was Drexel.
Last four in: Seton Hall, Mississippi State, NC State, Northwestern
First four out: Drexel, Texas, NC State, Illinois
My projected field of NCAA Tournament qualifiers
1 seeds: Kentucky, Syracuse, Ohio State, North Carolina
2 seeds: Michigan State, Duke, Missouri, Kansas
3 seeds: Marquette, Baylor, Indiana, Louisville
4 seeds: Wisconsin, Wichita State, Michigan, Creighton
5 seeds: Georgetown, Murray State, Memphis, Florida State
6 seeds: Gonzaga, New Mexico, San Diego State, St. Mary’s-CA
7 seeds: Temple, Vanderbilt, Florida,Cincinnati
8 seeds: UNLV, Saint Louis, Purdue, Notre Dame
9 seeds: Virginia, Alabama, Southern Miss, Iowa State
10 seeds: Oral Roberts, Kansas State, UConn, California
11 seeds: BYU, Harvard, VCU, Colorado State
12 seeds: Xavier, Northwestern, Play-in Winner 1, Play-in Winner 2
13 seeds: Ohio, Long Island, Vermont, South Dakota State
14 seeds: Norfolk State, Long Beach State, Colorado, Davidson
15 seeds: Belmont, Montana, St. Bonaventure, New Mexico State
16 seeds: Detroit, Lehigh, Loyola-MD, Play-in Winner 3, Play-in Winner 4
Play-in Winner 1: Northwestern vs Seton Hall
Play-in Winner 2: North Carolina State vs Mississippi State
Play-in Winner 3: Lamar vs Western Kentucky
Play-in Winner 4: Mississippi Valley State vs UNC-Asheville
Cheers.
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A classical problem in probability, which I learned about from Freedman, Pisani, and Purves’ book Statistics (pp. 238-240 in the fourth edition) is that of Galileo’s dice. Galileo was asked why, when rolling three fair dice, a sum of ten occurs more often than a sum of nine; he answered this question in Concerning an Investigation on Dice (from the University of York’s history of statistics page). It had previously been argued that since
10 = 6 + 3 + 1 = 6 + 2 + 2 = 5 + 4 + 1 = 5 + 3 + 2 = 4 + 4 + 2 = 4 + 3 + 3
and
9 = 6 + 2 + 1 = 5 + 3 + 1 = 5 + 2 + 2 = 4 + 4 + 1 = 4 + 3 + 2 = 3 + 3 + 3
View original post 575 more words
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Below are my projections for the NCAA tournament field. Other good projections can be found here provided by the geeks at TeamRankings.com. You can check out my rankings here.
Bubble Watch
Last four in: Seton Hall, Drexel, South Florida, West Virginia
First four out: Texas, NC State, Illinois, Ole Miss
My projected field of NCAA Tournament qualifiers
1 seeds: Syracuse, Kentucky, Duke, Kansas
2 seeds: North Carolina, Ohio State, Michigan State, Marquette
3 seeds: Missouri, Baylor, Indiana, Wichita State
4 seeds: Michigan, Wisconsin, Creighton, Georgetown
5 seeds: Murray State, Temple, Louisville, St. Mary’s-CA
6 seeds: Gonzaga, San Diego State, Memphis, UNLV
7 seeds: Florida, Florida State, Vanderbilt, Saint Louis
8 seeds: New Mexico,Virginia, Alabama, Purdue
9 seeds: Iowa State, Cincinnati, Southern Miss, Notre Dame
10 seeds: Kansas State, California, BYU, Northwestern
11 seeds: Harvard, Washington, Mississippi State, Oregon
12 seeds: VCU, Colorado State, UConn, Play-In Winner 1
13 seeds: Play-In Winner 2, Nevada, Valpo, Middle Tennessee State,
14 seeds: Long Beach State, Ohio, Davidson, Oral Roberts
15 seeds: Belmont, Montana, Vermont, Loyola (MD)
16 seeds: Bucknell, TX-Arlington, UNC-Asheville, Long Island, Miss Valley State, Savannah State
Play-In Game 1: West Virginia vs Seton Hall
Play-In Game 2: South Florida vs Drexel
By Conference
Ten: Big East
Seven: Big 10
Five: Big 12, SEC
Four: ACC, MWC
Three: Pac-12, WCC
Two: Atlantic 10, Missouri Valley, Conference USA, Colonial
One: America East, Atlantic Sun, Big Sky, Big South, Big West, Horizon, Ivy, MAAC, Mid-American, Mid-Eastern, Northeast, Ohio Valley, Patriot, Southern, Southland, SWAC, Summit, Sun Belt, WAC
Cheers.
