NFL Week 13 (in the wild)

First off, what a joke the NFC West is.
Although, I am excited about rooting for a 6 win team to make the playoffs and get a first round home playoff game. Nice work NFL.

A thought about being the 2 seed: I think in a year like this there may be some advantage to being the 2 seed rather than the 1 seed.

Let’s look at the AFC. Let’s assume that my playoff projections hold true. The wild card winners seeds will either be (3,4), (3,5), (4,6), or (5,6). After the first round of playoffs, the one seed plays the lowest remaining seed. This has to be the 4, 5, or 6 seed. So they are going to have to play Indianapolis, New York Jets or Pittsburgh. I would argue that all three of these teams are better than the Kansas City Chiefs. The two seed has to play either the 3, 4, or 5 seed. They are guaranteed to not have to play the Steelers, and they avoid the Jets in all scenarios except where both the Jets and Steelers win. This looks to me like an easier path to the AFC championship game.

Week 12 Playoff projections:
Playoff Projections:
AFC Projected seeds (Expected Wins) [Probability they win the Super Bowl]{Ranking}:
1. New England (12.92)[.199]{2}
2. Baltimore (11.90) [.12]{5}
3. Kansas City (10.05) [.0008]{15}
4. Indianapolis (8.88) [.0004]{14}
5. New York Jets (12.45) [.1292]{3}
6. Pittsburgh (11.77) [.1162]{4}

NFC Projected seeds:
1. Atlanta (13.45) [.349]{1}
2. Philadelphia (10.86) [.0208]{10}
3. Chicago (10.49) [.0114]{11}
4. Seattle (7.29) [0]{22}
5. New Orleans (10.86) [.0254]{6}
6. Green Bay (10.15) [.0138]{8}

My Rankings: (Wins)
1 Atlanta (9)
2 NewEngland (9)
3 NYJets (9)
4 Pittsburgh (8)
5 Baltimore (8)
6 NewOrleans (8)
7 TampaBay (7)
8 GreenBay (7)
9 Miami (6)
10 Philadelphia (7)
11 Chicago (8)
12 Tennessee (5)
13 NYGiants (7)
14 Indianapolis (6)
15 KansasCity (7)
16 Cleveland (4)
17 SanDiego (6)
18 Jacksonville (6)
19 Washington (5)
20 Minnesota (4)
21 Oakland (5)
22 Seattle (5)
23 Houston (5)
24 StLouis (5)
25 SanFrancisco (4)
26 Denver (3)
27 Dallas (3)
28 Arizona (3)
29 Buffalo (2)
30 Cincinnati (2)
31 Detroit (2)
32 Carolina (1)

Cheers.

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Posted on November 30, 2010, in Sports. Bookmark the permalink. Leave a comment.

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