NFL Picks – Week 5

Total (weeks 1-4) –  SU: 51-25-0  ATS: 38-36-2  O/U: 45-31-0 

Week 1 – SU: 9-7-0 ATS: 8-8-0 O/U: 13-3-0

Week 2 – SU: 10-6-0 ATS: 10-6-0 O/U: 10-6-0

Week 3 – SU: 12-4-0 ATS: 9-6-1  O/U: 8-8-0

Week 4 – SU: 7-6-0 ATS: 5-7-1  O/U: 5-8-0

Week 5 – SU: 14-2-0 ATS: 6-9-0  O/U: 9-6-0

Minnesota at Green Bay

Prediction: Packers 26-20 (67.5%)

Pick: Vikings +9 (57.5%)

Total: Under 48

Chicago at Carolina

Prediction: Panthers 23-22 (54.9%)

Pick: Bears +2.5 (52.2%)

Total: Under 46

Houston at Dallas

Prediction: Cowboys 24-22 (55.0%)

Pick: Texans +6 (61.9%)

Total: Under 47

Arizona at Denver

Prediction: Broncos 26-20 (67.3%)

Pick: Cardinals +7.5 (53.5%)

Total: Under 49

Buffalo at Detroit

Prediction: Lions 24-20 (62.9%)

Pick: Bills +7 (56.7%)

Total: Under 44.5 

Baltimore at Indianapolis

Prediction: Colts 23-22 (52.4%)

 Pick: Ravens +3.5 (57.6%)

Total: Under 48 

Pittsburgh at Jacksonville

Prediction: Steelers 24-19 (64.7%)

Pick: Jaguars +7 (54.9%)

Total: Under 46.5

Tampa Bay at New Orleans

Prediction: Saints 27-20 (68.5%)

Pick: Buccaneers +10 (59.2%)

Total: Under 48.5 

Atlanta at NY Giants

Prediction: Giants 25-23 (54.7%)

Pick: Falcons +4 (56.6%)

Total: Under 50.5

St. Louis at Philadelphia

Prediction: Eagles 25-20 (64.0%)

Pick: Rams +7 (55.7%)

Total: Under 48

NY Jets at San Diego

Prediction: Chargers 23-19 (61.8%)

Pick: Jets +7 (57.9%)

Total: Under 44

Kansas City at San Francisco

Prediction: 49ers 24-17 (68.3%)

Pick: 49ers -6.5 (50.5%)

Total: Under 45

Cleveland at Tennessee 

Prediction: Titans 23-21 (56.8%)

Pick: Browns +1.5 (52.5%)

Total: Under 44

Cincinnati at New England

Prediction: Patriots 26-22 (61.4%)

Pick: Patriots -2.5 (54.4%)

Total: Over 46

Seattle at Washington

Prediction: Seahawks 23-21 (57.7%) 

Pick: Redskins +7.5 (76.7%)

Total: Under 46

 

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Posted on September 30, 2014, in Uncategorized. Bookmark the permalink. 2 Comments.

  1. Maybe I missed it, but do you have any comment on the process that goes into these projections? Or the purpose? Is this as simple as a power rank +/- home field advantage?

    Every game lands under a TD, and within a very narrow range of scores. That would indicate to me a “10,000 simulations”-type projection, where the mean score ends up landing most games in a tight window.

    Just curious as to your methodology, and any comment you have on the purpose/value of these projections, considering the tight range.

    • I haven’t posted anything on the full process that goes into these projection. There are some things that I don’t want to give away from free.

      The purpose? It entertains me? I’m also trying to see if I can beat the spread and totals. It’s fun for me.

      It’s a little bit more complicated than power rank and home field. I’m not using a simulation approach to come up with my projections. I am building several models based on different sources of data, weighting based on recency, and then combining across the models.

      If you took the Las Vegas spread and total and computed the implied predicted score you would also end up with almost all of those games within a touch down and with a very narrow range of scores. So I don’t think that is a problem.

      I hope this answers your questions.

      Cheers.

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