NFL Picks – Week 5
Total (weeks 1-4) – SU: 51-25-0 ATS: 38-36-2 O/U: 45-31-0
Week 1 – SU: 9-7-0 ATS: 8-8-0 O/U: 13-3-0
Week 2 – SU: 10-6-0 ATS: 10-6-0 O/U: 10-6-0
Week 3 – SU: 12-4-0 ATS: 9-6-1 O/U: 8-8-0
Week 4 – SU: 7-6-0 ATS: 5-7-1 O/U: 5-8-0
Week 5 – SU: 14-2-0 ATS: 6-9-0 O/U: 9-6-0
Minnesota at Green Bay
Prediction: Packers 26-20 (67.5%)
Pick: Vikings +9 (57.5%)
Total: Under 48
Chicago at Carolina
Prediction: Panthers 23-22 (54.9%)
Pick: Bears +2.5 (52.2%)
Total: Under 46
Houston at Dallas
Prediction: Cowboys 24-22 (55.0%)
Pick: Texans +6 (61.9%)
Total: Under 47
Arizona at Denver
Prediction: Broncos 26-20 (67.3%)
Pick: Cardinals +7.5 (53.5%)
Total: Under 49
Buffalo at Detroit
Prediction: Lions 24-20 (62.9%)
Pick: Bills +7 (56.7%)
Total: Under 44.5
Baltimore at Indianapolis
Prediction: Colts 23-22 (52.4%)
Pick: Ravens +3.5 (57.6%)
Total: Under 48
Pittsburgh at Jacksonville
Prediction: Steelers 24-19 (64.7%)
Pick: Jaguars +7 (54.9%)
Total: Under 46.5
Tampa Bay at New Orleans
Prediction: Saints 27-20 (68.5%)
Pick: Buccaneers +10 (59.2%)
Total: Under 48.5
Atlanta at NY Giants
Prediction: Giants 25-23 (54.7%)
Pick: Falcons +4 (56.6%)
Total: Under 50.5
St. Louis at Philadelphia
Prediction: Eagles 25-20 (64.0%)
Pick: Rams +7 (55.7%)
Total: Under 48
NY Jets at San Diego
Prediction: Chargers 23-19 (61.8%)
Pick: Jets +7 (57.9%)
Total: Under 44
Kansas City at San Francisco
Prediction: 49ers 24-17 (68.3%)
Pick: 49ers -6.5 (50.5%)
Total: Under 45
Cleveland at Tennessee
Prediction: Titans 23-21 (56.8%)
Pick: Browns +1.5 (52.5%)
Total: Under 44
Cincinnati at New England
Prediction: Patriots 26-22 (61.4%)
Pick: Patriots -2.5 (54.4%)
Total: Over 46
Seattle at Washington
Prediction: Seahawks 23-21 (57.7%)
Pick: Redskins +7.5 (76.7%)
Total: Under 46
Posted on September 30, 2014, in Uncategorized. Bookmark the permalink. 2 Comments.
Stats in the Wild 
Maybe I missed it, but do you have any comment on the process that goes into these projections? Or the purpose? Is this as simple as a power rank +/- home field advantage?
Every game lands under a TD, and within a very narrow range of scores. That would indicate to me a “10,000 simulations”-type projection, where the mean score ends up landing most games in a tight window.
Just curious as to your methodology, and any comment you have on the purpose/value of these projections, considering the tight range.
I haven’t posted anything on the full process that goes into these projection. There are some things that I don’t want to give away from free.
The purpose? It entertains me? I’m also trying to see if I can beat the spread and totals. It’s fun for me.
It’s a little bit more complicated than power rank and home field. I’m not using a simulation approach to come up with my projections. I am building several models based on different sources of data, weighting based on recency, and then combining across the models.
If you took the Las Vegas spread and total and computed the implied predicted score you would also end up with almost all of those games within a touch down and with a very narrow range of scores. So I don’t think that is a problem.
I hope this answers your questions.
Cheers.