2015 NFL Preview

The 2015 NFL season is almost here.  That means it’s time for my NFL preview  (2014 NFL Preview2013 NFL Season Preview)!  Cheers.

Ranks

Retro is based only on games played in the 2014-2015 season and heavily weighs strength of schedule.

Prosp is based on 4 years of data weighted for recency.  It’s based on expected points.

Both Retro and Prosp are framed in terms of the probability of defeating and average team.

 
Team Retro Prosp
DEN 67 77
NE 71 77
GB 73 72
SEA 45 70
SF 66 69
PHI 59 68
NO 40 63
CAR 48 60
HOU 53 56
DAL 49 55
DET 64 54
CIN 54 53
BUF 53 52
PIT 56 51
IND 62 49
KC 59 49
ATL 42 48
CHI 34 48
BAL 62 48
WAS 37 47
SD 53 46
MIA 47 43
NYG 41 43
ARI 61 43
MIN 51 42
NYJ 35 39
STL 41 38
CLE 46 36
OAK 38 28
TEN 28 27
TB 25 27
JAC 38 21
 
Team WinDivison MakePlayoffs MakeSuperBowl WinSuperBowl
ARI 0.20 2.20 0.10 0.02
ATL 5.70 22.22 1.40 0.36
BAL 45.60 64.62 6.90 2.40
BUF 4.28 18.66 1.50 0.52
CAR 10.76 34.56 2.72 1.30
CHI 3.22 9.50 0.64 0.14
CIN 37.68 56.50 6.40 2.28
CLE 1.36 2.94 0.10 0.00
DAL 24.78 41.04 3.94 1.56
DEN 96.52 99.38 38.24 23.60
DET 10.32 29.16 2.18 0.78
GB 85.98 92.52 19.74 10.80
HOU 43.46 62.52 8.10 3.00
IND 54.20 70.70 8.84 3.58
JAC 0.02 0.04 0.00 0.00
KC 1.36 24.02 1.20 0.46
MIA 9.10 32.66 2.48 0.74
MIN 0.48 1.84 0.04 0.00
NE 85.22 95.26 21.14 13.34
NO 83.46 92.72 20.62 9.08
NYG 4.48 8.88 0.64 0.08
NYJ 1.40 6.62 0.50 0.16
OAK 0.00 0.06 0.00 0.00
PHI 67.02 76.36 11.26 5.52
PIT 15.36 28.76 2.62 0.94
SD 2.12 32.58 1.68 0.60
SEA 62.90 94.14 22.38 11.54
SF 36.86 87.04 13.96 7.06
STL 0.04 0.70 0.02 0.00
TB 0.08 0.80 0.02 0.00
TEN 2.32 4.68 0.30 0.00
WAS 3.72 6.32 0.34 0.14

Projected Records

Team – (Median wins) expected wins

AFC East

New England – (11-5) 11.31

Miami – (8-8) 8.06

Buffalo – (7-9) 7.20

NY Jets (6-10) 6.24

AFC North

Baltimore (9-7) 9.31

Cincinnati – (9-7) 9.00

Pittsburgh – (8-8) 7.80

Cleveland – (5-11) 5.35

AFC South

Indianapolis – (10-6) 9.53

Houston (9-7) 9.18

Tennessee (6-10) 5.54

Jacksonville (3-13) 2.73

AFC West

Denver – (12-4) 12.16

San Diego – (8-8) 8.10

Kansas City – (8-8) 7.70

Oakland – (3-13) 3.10

NFC East

Philadelphia (10-6) 10.25

Dallas (9-7) 8.74

NY Giants (7-9) 6.58

Washington (6-10) 6.29

NFC North

Green Bay (12-4) 11.54

Detroit (9-7) 8.38

Chicago (7-9) 7.03

Minnesota (6-10) 5.49

NFC South

New Orleans (12-4) 11.70

Carolina (9-7) 8.64

Atlanta (8-8) 7.99

Tampa Bay (5-11) 4.88

NFC West

Seattle (12-4) 12.05

San Francisco (11-5) 11.21

Arizona (6-10) 5.81

St. Louis (5-11) 5.09

Projected Playoffs

AFC

1. Denver

2. New England

3. Indianapolis

4. Baltimore

5. Houston

6. Cincinnati

NFC

1. Seattle

2. New Orleans

3. Green Bay

4. Philadelphia

5. San Francisco

6. Dallas

Projected Wild Card Round

AFC

Indianapolis beats Cincinnati  24-22

Baltimore beats Houston 23-20

NFC

Green Bay beats Dallas 27-22

Philadelphia beats San Francisco 23-22

Projected Divisional Round

AFC

Denver beats Baltimore 27-21

New England beats Indianapolis 29-23

NFC

Seattle beats Philadelphia 26-21

New Orleans beats Green Bay 27-26

Projected Conference Round

AFC

Denver beats New England 29-25

NFC

Seattle beats New Orleans 26-22

Super Bowl

Denver beats Seattle 25-23

Season Long Bets

Win Totals

Arizona Under 8.5 -105

Buffalo Under 8.5 -130

Denver Over 10.5 Even

Jacksonville Under 5.5 -115

Minnesota Under 7.5 +200

New Orleans Over 8.5 -145

New York Jets Under 7.5 -140

Oakland Under 6 -115

San Francisco Over 6.5 Even

St. Louis Under 8 -165

Seattle Over 11 -135

Win Division

Philadelphia +125

Green Bay -250

New Orleans +220

San Francisco +2000

New England -140

Baltimore +150

Houston +550

Denver -160

Win AFC

Cincinnati +2000

Denver +400

Houston +2200

Win NFC

New Orleans +2200

Crazy Long Shot Super Bowl Match-Up

New Orleans vs Houston +50000

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Posted on August 24, 2015, in Uncategorized. Bookmark the permalink. Leave a comment.

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