The 2015 NFL season is almost here.  That means it’s time for my NFL preview  (2014 NFL Preview, 2013 NFL Season Preview)!  Cheers.

Ranks

Retro is based only on games played in the 2014-2015 season and heavily weighs strength of schedule.

Prosp is based on 4 years of data weighted for recency.  It’s based on expected points.

Both Retro and Prosp are framed in terms of the probability of defeating and average team.

Team Retro Prosp DEN 67 77 NE 71 77 GB 73 72 SEA 45 70 SF 66 69 PHI 59 68 NO 40 63 CAR 48 60 HOU 53 56 DAL 49 55 DET 64 54 CIN 54 53 BUF 53 52 PIT 56 51 IND 62 49 KC 59 49 ATL 42 48 CHI 34 48 BAL 62 48 WAS 37 47 SD 53 46 MIA 47 43 NYG 41 43 ARI 61 43 MIN 51 42 NYJ 35 39 STL 41 38 CLE 46 36 OAK 38 28 TEN 28 27 TB 25 27 JAC 38 21

Team WinDivison MakePlayoffs MakeSuperBowl WinSuperBowl ARI 0.20 2.20 0.10 0.02 ATL 5.70 22.22 1.40 0.36 BAL 45.60 64.62 6.90 2.40 BUF 4.28 18.66 1.50 0.52 CAR 10.76 34.56 2.72 1.30 CHI 3.22 9.50 0.64 0.14 CIN 37.68 56.50 6.40 2.28 CLE 1.36 2.94 0.10 0.00 DAL 24.78 41.04 3.94 1.56 DEN 96.52 99.38 38.24 23.60 DET 10.32 29.16 2.18 0.78 GB 85.98 92.52 19.74 10.80 HOU 43.46 62.52 8.10 3.00 IND 54.20 70.70 8.84 3.58 JAC 0.02 0.04 0.00 0.00 KC 1.36 24.02 1.20 0.46 MIA 9.10 32.66 2.48 0.74 MIN 0.48 1.84 0.04 0.00 NE 85.22 95.26 21.14 13.34 NO 83.46 92.72 20.62 9.08 NYG 4.48 8.88 0.64 0.08 NYJ 1.40 6.62 0.50 0.16 OAK 0.00 0.06 0.00 0.00 PHI 67.02 76.36 11.26 5.52 PIT 15.36 28.76 2.62 0.94 SD 2.12 32.58 1.68 0.60 SEA 62.90 94.14 22.38 11.54 SF 36.86 87.04 13.96 7.06 STL 0.04 0.70 0.02 0.00 TB 0.08 0.80 0.02 0.00 TEN 2.32 4.68 0.30 0.00 WAS 3.72 6.32 0.34 0.14

Projected Records

Team – (Median wins) expected wins

AFC East

New England – (11-5) 11.31

Miami – (8-8) 8.06

Buffalo – (7-9) 7.20

NY Jets (6-10) 6.24

AFC North

Baltimore (9-7) 9.31

Cincinnati – (9-7) 9.00

Pittsburgh – (8-8) 7.80

Cleveland – (5-11) 5.35

AFC South

Indianapolis – (10-6) 9.53

Houston (9-7) 9.18

Tennessee (6-10) 5.54

Jacksonville (3-13) 2.73

AFC West

Denver – (12-4) 12.16

San Diego – (8-8) 8.10

Kansas City – (8-8) 7.70

Oakland – (3-13) 3.10

NFC East

Philadelphia (10-6) 10.25

Dallas (9-7) 8.74

NY Giants (7-9) 6.58

Washington (6-10) 6.29

NFC North

Green Bay (12-4) 11.54

Detroit (9-7) 8.38

Chicago (7-9) 7.03

Minnesota (6-10) 5.49

NFC South

New Orleans (12-4) 11.70

Carolina (9-7) 8.64

Atlanta (8-8) 7.99

Tampa Bay (5-11) 4.88

NFC West

Seattle (12-4) 12.05

San Francisco (11-5) 11.21

Arizona (6-10) 5.81

St. Louis (5-11) 5.09

Projected Playoffs

AFC

1. Denver

2. New England

3. Indianapolis

4. Baltimore

5. Houston

6. Cincinnati

NFC

1. Seattle

2. New Orleans

3. Green Bay

4. Philadelphia

5. San Francisco

6. Dallas

Projected Wild Card Round

AFC

Indianapolis beats Cincinnati  24-22

Baltimore beats Houston 23-20

NFC

Green Bay beats Dallas 27-22

Philadelphia beats San Francisco 23-22

Projected Divisional Round

AFC

Denver beats Baltimore 27-21

New England beats Indianapolis 29-23

NFC

Seattle beats Philadelphia 26-21

New Orleans beats Green Bay 27-26

Projected Conference Round

AFC

Denver beats New England 29-25

NFC

Seattle beats New Orleans 26-22

Super Bowl

Denver beats Seattle 25-23

Season Long Bets

Win Totals

Arizona Under 8.5 -105

Buffalo Under 8.5 -130

Denver Over 10.5 Even

Jacksonville Under 5.5 -115

Minnesota Under 7.5 +200

New Orleans Over 8.5 -145

New York Jets Under 7.5 -140

Oakland Under 6 -115

San Francisco Over 6.5 Even

St. Louis Under 8 -165

Seattle Over 11 -135

Win Division

Philadelphia +125

Green Bay -250

New Orleans +220

San Francisco +2000

New England -140

Baltimore +150

Houston +550

Denver -160

Win AFC

Cincinnati +2000

Denver +400

Houston +2200

Win NFC

New Orleans +2200

Crazy Long Shot Super Bowl Match-Up

New Orleans vs Houston +50000