NCAA tournament probabilities

Estimated chances of making the Sweet Sixteen

  1. Villanova(1) – 81.14%
  2. Virginia(1) – 77.89%
  3. Purdue(2) – 76.24%
  4. Kansas(1) – 74.40%
  5. Duke(2) – 74.03%
  6. Michigan St(3) – 72.59%
  7. North Carolina(2) – 72.02%
  8. Cincinnati(2) – 66.60%
  9. Tennessee(3) – 59.16%
  10. Auburn(4) – 59.08%
  11. Gonzaga(4) – 58.10%
  12. Texas Tech(3) – 56.45%
  13. Xavier(1) – 56.06%
  14. Michigan(3) – 53.65%
  15. West Virginia(5) – 52.09%
  16. Arizona(4) – 49.81%
  17. Wichita St(4) – 43.58%
  18. Ohio St(5) – 39.19%
  19. Florida(6) – 38.18%
  20. Clemson(5) – 3.158%
  21. Kentucky(5) – 30.56%
  22. Miami FL(6) – 29.12%
  23. Florida St(9) – 29.12%
  24. Houston(6) – 28.67%
  25. Texas A&M(7) – 22.14%
  26. Oklahoma(10) – 19.01%
  27. TCU(6) – 17.83%
  28. Texas(10) – 16.31%
  29. Nevada(7) – 15.39%
  30. Butler(10) – 15.32%
  31. Missouri(8) – 14.65%
  32. Seton Hall(8) – 14.26%
  33. San Diego St(11) – 13.49%
  34. Creighton(8) – 12.19%
  35. Virginia Tech (8)- 12.05%
  36. Davidson(12) – 11.82%
  37. NC State(9) – 10.83%
  38. Loyola Chicago(11) – 9.83%
  39. Kansas St(9) – 9.77%
  40. Arizona St/Syracuse(11) – 8.38%
  41. Arkansas(7) – 8.32%
  42. Buffalo(13) – 7.81%
  43. Alabama(9) – 6.78%
  44. Rhode Island(7) – 6.59%
  45. New Mexico St(12) – 6.42%
  46. Providence(10) – 5.44%
  47. St. Bonaventure/UCLA(11) – 4.30%
  48. Montana(14) – 4.19%
  49. Murray St(12) – 3.64%
  50. Charleston(13) – 2.92%
  51. Wright St(14) – 1.89%
  52. Georgia St(15) – 1.70%
  53. S Dakota St(12) – 1.55%
  54. Bucknell(14) – 1.20%
  55. Greensboro(13) – 1.16%
  56. SF Austin(14) – 1.07%

>0% and <1%: Marshall(13), Penn(16), Lipscomb(15), Iona(15), Texas Southern(16), UMBC(16), CS Fullerton(15), Radford(16), LIU Brooklyn(16), NC Central(16).

Estimated chances of making the Final Four

  1. Virginia – 41.49%
  2. VIllanova – 32.07%
  3. Purdue – 30.79%
  4. North Carolina – 30.33%
  5. Michigan St – 29.11%
  6. Duke – 27.19%
  7. Cincinnati – 22.78%
  8. Kansas – 21.91%
  9. Gonzaga – 21.27%
  10. West Virginia – 11.88%
  11. Xavier – 11.67%
  12. Tennessee – 10.91%
  13. Michigan – 10.79%
  14. Auburn – 10.38%
  15. Ohio St – 10.24%
  16. Texas Tech – 9.08%
  17. Arizona – 8.51%
  18. Wichita St – 7.31%
  19. Florida St – 4.71%
  20. Texas A&M – 4.68%
  21. Florida – 3.94%
  22. Houston 3.54%
  23. Miami FL – 3.43%
  24. Kentucky 3.42%
  25. Clemson – 2.99%
  26. TCU – 2.70%
  27. Oklahoma – 2.66%
  28. Creighton – 2.37%
  29. Texas – 2.27%
  30. Butler – 2.19%
  31. Nevada – 1.89%
  32. Kansas St – 1.64%
  33. Missouri – 1.51%
  34. Virginia Tech – 1.24%

>0% and <1%: Seton Hall, Arkansas, NC State, Arizona St, San Diego St, Loyola Chicago, Davidson, Alabama, Providence, Rhode Island, Buffalo, New Mexico St, Murray St, St Bonaventure, Montana, Georgia St, Charleston, Bucknell, Wright St, South Dakota St, Greensboro, SF Austin

 

 

Estimated chances of winning NCAA tournament

  1. Virginia – 13.85%
  2. Villanova – 12.50%
  3. Purdue – 11.94%
  4. Michigan St – 10.23%
  5. Duke – 9.03%
  6. North Carolina – 7.15%
  7. Kansas – 5.50%
  8. Cincinnati – 5.30%
  9. Gonzaga – 4.49%
  10. West Virginia – 3.33%
  11. Texas Tech – 1.84%
  12. Auburn – 1.84%
  13. Xavier – 5.13%
  14. Wichita St – 1.56%
  15. Tennessee – 1.38%
  16. Ohio St – 1.34%
  17. Michigan – 1.25%
  18. Arizona – 1.06%
  19. Florida St – 0.63%
  20. Florida – 0.60%
  21. Texas A&M – 0.47%
  22. TCU – 0.34%
  23. Oklahoma – 0.28%
  24. Houston – 0.26%
  25. Clemson – 0.25%
  26. Kentucky – 0.24%
  27. Creighton – 0.24%
  28. Butler – 0.24%
  29. Miami FL – 0.23%
  30. Missouri – 0.14%
  31. Virginia Tech – 0.13%
  32. Texas – 0.13%
  33. Kansas St – 0.13%
  34. Arizona St – 0.08%
  35. Seton Hall – 0.07%
  36. San Diego St – 0.06%
  37. Nevada – 0.06%
  38. NC State – 0.03%
  39. Arkansas – 0.03%
  40. Providence – 0.02%
  41. Alabama – 0.02%
  42. Rhode Island – 0.01%
  43. Loyola Chicago – 0.01%
  44. Davidson – 0.01%
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Posted on March 13, 2018, in Uncategorized. Bookmark the permalink. Leave a comment.

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