Round of 64

I think generally the committee did a pretty good job this year, at least in terms of first round games.  The only lower seeded teams that I have favored in the first round are Florida St. over Missouri and Butler over Arkansas (though I have Houston as only a tiny favorite over San Diego State).  As far as most likely possible upsets? Here are the double digit seeds I think are most likely to win in round 1 (in order of likelihood) :

(11) Loyola-Chicago over (6) Miami (That’s not what my model says, but I’m contractually obligated to say this)

(11) San Diego State over (6) Houston

(10) Texas over (7) Nevada

(10) Providence over (7) Texas A&M

(12) Davidson over (5) Kentucky

(12) New Mexico St over (5) Clemson

(11) St. Bonaventure over (6) Florida

(12) Murray State over (5) West Virginia

(12) South Dakota State over (5) Ohio State

Then if you want to get crazy and go for some big time first round upsets I would pick these (in order of likelihood):

(14) Montana over (3) Michigan

(13) Marshall over (4) Wichita State

(13) Charleston over (4) Auburn

(14) Wright State over (3) Tennessee

(14) S.F. Austin over (3) Texas Tech

(15) Georgia State over (2) Cincinnati

Round of 32

Nothing really interesting here.  I have all the 1-4 seeds favored to make this round with the exception of Wichita State, which I have as an underdog to West Virginia.

Looking to pick an upset?  Most likely 5 seed or higher to make the Sweet Sixteen:

(5) West Virginia

(5) Clemson

(6) Florida

(5) Kentucky

(8) Seton Hall

(6) Houston

(11) San Diego State

(10) Butler

(7) Nevada

(7) Texas A&M

Want to get real crazy with it?

(12) Davidson

(12) New Mexico State

(11) St. Bonaventure

(13) Buffalo

(12) Murray State

Sweet 16

Here is where things start to get a bit interesting.  I have Villanova, Purdue, Kansas, Duke/Michigan St*, North Carolina, Cincinnati, Virginia, and Gonzaga.

I think the two most potentially interesting games in this round are Gonzaga vs Xavier and Duke vs Michigan St.  I think Xavier is way overrated and Gonzaga is underrated so I think it will be interesting to see if Xavier lives up to its one seed here.  The other game, Duke vs Michigan St, I think would be a good Final Four matchup.  I’m taking whoever wins this game to go all the way to the finals.  I just have no idea who is going to win this game, so I’m not picking the winner of that game, but I am advancing them in the bracket as a /.  It’s my blog and I can do what I want.

Looking to pick a double digit seed to the Elite 8?  How about these teams:

(11) San Diego State

(12) New Mexico State

(12) Davidson

(11) St. Bonaventure

(15) Georgia State

Elite 8

Alright.  I’ve got Virginia over Cincinnati.  Villanova over Purdue.  Duke/Michigan State over Kansas.  And North Carolina over Gonzaga.  That’s 3 ACC teams.  Ugh.  And Duke.  The most Ugh.

I think Butler and Texas A&M as Final Four teams are interesting picks as well as Seton Hall and Miami.

Final 4

I’m taking Virginia over North Carolina and Duke/Michigan State over Villanova.

 

Finals

I’m taking Virginia over Duke.

Want some cray picks to win the championship?

(5) West Virginia

(5) Ohio State

(5) Clemson

(9) Florida State

(9) Seton Hall

(6) Florida

If you need me Friday morning, I’ll be crying in a corner next to the remains of my bracket.

Oh.  And for god’s sake NCAA, pay the players!

Cheers.

 

 

 

 

 

Of the four number 1 seeds, Virginia, Villanova, Kansas, and Xavier, Xavier is far and away the weakest number 1 seed in this tournament (I have them ranked 15th overall).