World Cup Advancement Scenarios
Update: Someone on Twitter suggested that these advancement grids should be weighted by how likely the scenario is. Here is what those looked like before the last games of Groups G and H.
Each team in the World Cup is through 2 games and every team has one game left in the group stage. Below you will find graphics for each teams advancement scenarios based on the two remaining games in their group.
- Green indicates that a team will win their group.
- Yellow means they finish second, and red means they are eliminated.
- Light green means they are tied for first after points and goal differential and the winner is determined by further tie breakers.
- Orange indicates a tie for second after points and goal differential and the team that moves on is determined by further tie breakers.
- Gray indicates a three way tie after points and goal differential and further tie breakers are applied to decide who moves on.
This is a pretty boring group.
- Russia wins the group with a win or tie.
- Uruguay wins the group with a win.
- Egypt is out.
- Saudi Arabia is out.
Group B is much more interesting that A.
- Morocco has been eliminated.
- Iran advances with a win OR a tie and Morocco wins by 2 or more over Spain. If Morocco wins by 1 over Spain and Iran wins, it goes to goals for as a tie breaker. Iran can actually still win the group with a win and a Morocco win or tie.
- Portugal advances with a win or tie. They can also advance with a loss and a Morocco win. As long as Morocco beats Spain by more than Portugal loses to Iran.
- Spain advances in basically all scenarios EXCEPT a loss and an Iran tie OR a loss and a Morocco win by more than Iran beats Portugal.
- France is through. They can win the group with a win or a tie over Denmark.
- Denmark advances unless they lose and Australia wins.
- Australia gets in with a win and a loss by Denmark. If Australia wins by 1 and France wins by 1, Denmark and Australia tie for second and the team with more goals scored would advance. If it’s still tied the rest of the tie breakers would be applied.
- Peru is elimnated.
- Croatia is through. The win the group unless they lose and Nigeria wins AND Nigeria can make up a goal differential of 5.
- Nigeria advances with any win and can advance with a tie as long as Iceland doesn’t win by 3 or more.
- Iceland can advance with a win and an Argentina win or tie. But they still need to make up a goal differential of 2.
- Argentina advance with a win and a Croatia win or tie. They can also advance with a win and an Iceland win, but they would need to make up the 1 goal differential with Iceland.
- Brazil advances with a win or tie. They can still advance with a loss as long as Costa Rica wins and Brazil maintains its 1 goal differential advantage over Switzerland.
- Switzerland is through with a win or tie. They also advance with any Brazil win. They can also advance with a loss as long as Serbia beats Brazil and they can make up the 1 goal differential behind Brazil.
- Serbia advances with a win. Or they can advance with a tie and a Costa Rica win.
- Costa Rica is eliminated.
Group F is nuts.
- Mexico is 2-0-0 and hasn’t clinched yet. They win the group with a win or a tie and there are even some scenarios where they win the group with a one goal loss and a South Korean tie or victory.
- Germany, who was almost eliminated by Sweden, advances with a win* or a tie and a Mexico win. Germany will tie for second if they tie and Mexico ties or if they lose by 1 and Mexico wins.
- Sweden advance with a win and a German loss. Or a tie and German loss. Or a win and a German tie. In fact they most likely advance with a win, with a few exceptions*.
- South Korea, who is currently sitting on two losses and still somehow advance. They simply need to beat Germany by 2 and have Mexico beat Sweden. Simple……
*If Sweden wins by 1 and Germany wins by 1, Sweden, Germany, and Mexico would be in a three way tie for first with 6 points each and the same goal differential. That means some team with 6 point would not advance. Heartbreaking. 6 points is a lot.
- England is through and wins the group with a win over England.
- Belgium is through and wins the group with a win over Belgium.
- Tunisia is eliminated.
- Panama is eliminated.
If Belgium and England tie, all the tiebreakers are tied down to fair play points and the winner of the group will be chosen based on who has fewer yellow cards.
- Japan is through with a win or tie. They can also advance with a loss and a Senegal win.
- Senegal is through with a win or tie. They can also advance with a loss and a Columbia win but that would come down to goal differential to break their tie with Japan.
- Columbia advances with any win or with a tie and a Poland win.
- Poland is eliminated.