The state of the presidential election in field goal yardage

I’ve converted FiveThirtyEight win probabilities into field goal yardages.

So for example Arizona – 54.75 means that the probability that Biden wins Arizona is about the same as a kicker in the NFL making a 54.75 yard field goal.  Let’s look at the swing states in terms of how likely Biden is to win the state

  • Arizona – 54.8
  • Colorado – 40.5
  • Florida – 52.8
  • Georgia – 63.6
  • Iowa – 65.4
  • Maine (Statewide) – 45.5
  • Michigan – 43.2
  • Minnesota – 47.0
  • Nevada – 45.5
  • New Hampshire – 48.9
  • New Mexico – 35.29
  • North Carolina – 57.9
  • Ohio – 61.5
  • Pennsylvania – 49.4
  • Virginia – 33.0
  • Wisconsin – 48.9

The longest field goal in NFL history was 64 yards.

Biden winning Oregon is a 35.3 yard field goal

To put this in perspective, Biden winning California and Oregon are about 12 and 35.3 yard field goals respectively. Biden winning Indiana and Wyoming are about 85.4 and 102 yard field goals, respectively.

Finally, overall Biden’s chances of winning right now are about a 48.9 yard field goal. Sometimes kickers miss 48.9 yard field goals!

Cheers.

 

 

 

 

Posted on September 1, 2020, in Uncategorized. Bookmark the permalink. Leave a comment.

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