Category Archives: Football

How bad was the call last night?

UPDATE: This apparently only applies to non-US bettors.

According to a Yahoo! news article:

At least one sports book has apparently decided to sidestep the controversy by refunding the losers their money in the form of a free play, according to NESN. Sportsbook.com took the unusual step because, as one company official put it, “I can’t stand winning unfairly so I am going to give the punters their money back.”

NFL Rankings – 9/25/2012

Note: I’ve stopped using data from 2011, so these new rankings reflect only 2012 data.

StatsInTheWild MLB rankings as of September 25, 2012 at 6:10pm.  SOS=strength of schedule

Team Rank Change Record ESPN TeamRankings.com SOS Points Diff
Arizona 1 ↑12 3-0 5 1 3 +27
Houston 2 ↑5 3-0 1 3 16 +46
Atlanta 3 ↑5 3-0 2 2 31 +46
Seattle 4 ↑10 2-1 10 5 5 +18
Chicago 5 ↑10 2-1 11 18 9 +24
San Francisco 6 ↓5 2-1 4 10 4 +5
Minnesota 7 ↑20 2-1 21 20 11 +11
New England 8 ↓5 1-2 8 7 7 +18
Baltimore 9 ↓5 2-1 3 4 25 +31
NY Jets 10 ↑7 2-1 17 11 8 +6
NY Giants 11 ↑2 2-1 6 8 22 +29
Buffalo 12 ↑11 2-1 19 15 13 +8
Green Bay 13 ↓11 1-2 7 14 6 +3
Dallas 14 ↑5 2-1 12 9 18 -7
Miami 15 ↑5 1-2 29 19 10 -1
Detroit 16 ↓7 1-2 18 25 2 -7
San Diego 17 ↓7 2-1 13 13 32 +12
St. Louis 18 ↑13 1-2 25 29 1 -18
Jacksonville 19 ↑11 1-2 30 22 14 -18
Philadelphia 20 ↓9 2-1 9 6 17 -19
Cincinnati 21 ↓5 2-1 15 12 27 -17
Denver 22 ↓4 1-2 14 16 28 0
Pittsburgh 23 ↓18 1-2 16 17 26 +2
Washington 24 1-2 22 27 19 -2
Indianapolis 25 ↑7 1-2 31 30 15 -22
Tampa Bay 26 ↑2 1-2 20 26 24 -7
Tennessee 27 ↓5 1-2 24 23 12 -46
Carolina 28 ↓7 1-2 23 28 21 -27
Kansas City 29 ↓3 1-2 26 21 29 -31
Oakland 30 ↓5 1-2 27 24 30 -27
Cleveland 31 ↓2 0-3 32 32 23 -18
New Orleans 32 ↓26 0-3 28 31 20 -19

NCAA College Football Rankings – September 24, 2012

 
Ranking Team
1 TEXAS
2 KANSAS STATE
3 TEXAS TECH
4 ALABAMA
5 OREGON
6 LSU
7 TCU
8 WEST VIRGINIA
9 STANFORD
10 IOWA STATE
11 FLORIDA
12 GEORGIA
13 NOTRE DAME
14 BAYLOR
15 SO CAROLINA
16 FLORIDA STATE
17 OKLAHOMA
18 OREGON STATE
19 USC
20 ARIZONA STATE
21 MISS STATE
22 OKLAHOMA STATE
23 OHIO STATE
24 ARIZONA
25 UCLA
26 NORTHWESTERN
27 TEXAS A&M
28 MINNESOTA
29 TENNESSEE
30 MICHIGAN STATE
31 LOUISVILLE
32 CLEMSON
33 OLE MISS
34 NEBRASKA
35 WISCONSIN
36 MIAMI-FLORIDA
37 LOUISIANA TECH
38 CINCINNATI
39 RUTGERS
40 WASHINGTON
41 PURDUE
42 GEORGIA TECH
43 MICHIGAN
44 NEVADA
45 SAN JOSE ST
46 UTAH STATE
47 DUKE
48 VIRGINIA TECH
49 MISSOURI
50 NC STATE
51 BYU
52 PENN STATE
53 INDIANA
54 KANSAS
55 IOWA
56 FRESNO STATE
57 PITTSBURGH
58 WASHINGTON ST
59 MARYLAND
60 OHIO U
61 NORTH CAROLINA
62 KENTUCKY
63 BOISE STATE
64 WAKE FOREST
65 UTAH
66 MIDDLE TENNESSEE
67 AUBURN
68 CALIFORNIA
69 ILLINOIS
70 BOSTON COLLEGE
71 ARKANSAS
72 CONNECTICUT
73 SO FLORIDA
74 TEXAS STATE
75 BALL STATE
76 SYRACUSE
77 TOLEDO
78 TX-SAN ANTONIO
79 SAN DIEGO ST
80 WESTERN KY
81 TULSA
82 VIRGINIA
83 NEW MEXICO
84 VANDERBILT
85 UCF
86 UNLV
87 COLORADO
88 WYOMING
89 NORTHERN ILL
90 LOUISIANA
91 TROY
92 ULM
93 COLORADO STATE
94 TEMPLE
95 WESTERN MICH
96 AIR FORCE
97 ARKANSAS STATE
98 KENT STATE
99 MARSHALL
100 CENTRAL MICH
101 IDAHO
102 TEXAS-EL PASO
103 NORTH TEXAS
104 HAWAII
105 NAVY
106 MIAMI-OHIO
107 FLA ATLANTIC
108 FIU
109 SOUTH ALABAMA
110 BUFFALO
111 EAST CAROLINA
112 BOWLING GREEN
113 SMU
114 RICE
115 NEW MEXICO ST
116 EASTERN MICH
117 ARMY
118 UAB
119 HOUSTON
120 AKRON
121 SOUTHERN MISS
122 TULANE
123 MEMPHIS
124 MASSACHUSETTS

NFL Week 3 Predictions

Overall Records for 2012

SU: 27-21 (56.25%)

ATS: 27-21 (56.25%)

O/U: 25-23 (52.08%)

Week 3 (5-11 SU, 9-7 ATS, 9-7 OU)

Week 2 (11-5 SU, 9-7 ATS, 8-8 O/U)

Week 1 (11-5 SU, 9-7 ATS, 8-8 O/U)

Thursday @8:20pm

New York Giants at Carolina Panthers

Prediction: Panthers win 27-26

Pick: Panthers +1.5

O/U: Over 49.5

Sunday @1pm

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Dallas Cowboys

Prediction: Cowboys win 24-20

Pick: Buccaneers +8

O/U: Under 46

New York Jets at Miami Dolphins

Prediction: Dolphins win 22-21

Pick: Dolphins +3.5

O/U: Over 40

Kansas City Chiefs at New Orleans Saints

Prediction: Saints win 34-18

Pick: Saints -9

O/U: Under 54

Cincinnati Bengals at Washington Redskins

Prediction: Bengals 20-16

Pick: Bengals +4.5

O/U: Under 49

Detroit Lions at Tennessee Titans

Prediction: Lions win 25-21

Pick: Lions -3.5

O/U: Under 47

San Francisco 49ers at Minnesota Vikings

Prediction: 49ers win 24-20

Pick: Vikings +7.5

O/U: Over 43

Jacksonville Jaguars at Indianapolis Colts

Prediction: Colts win 20-14

Pick: Colts -2.5

O/U: Under 42

St. Louis Rams at Chicago Bears

Prediction: Bears win 23-15

Pick: Rams +9

O/U: Under 44.5

Buffalo Bills at Cleveland Browns

Prediction: Bills 23-18

Pick: Bills -3

O/U: Under 44

Sunday @4:05pm

Atlanta Falcons at San Diego Chargers

Prediction: Chargers 26-25

Pick: Falcons +3.5

O/U: Over 47.5

Philadelphia Eagles at Arizona Cardinals

Prediction:  Eagles 28-23

Pick: Eagles -3.5

O/U: Over 43.5

Sunday @4:25pm

Pittsburgh Steelers at Oakland Raiders

Prediction: Steelers 24-23

Pick: Raiders +4.5

O/U: Over 44.5

Houston Texans at Denver Broncos

Prediction:  Texans win 25-21

Pick: Texans -2

O/U: Over 44.5

Sunday @8:20

New England Patriots at Baltimore Ravens

Prediction: Patriots win 29-22

Pick: Patriots +3.5

O/U: Over 48.5

Monday @8:30pm

Green Bay Packers at Seattle Seahawks

Prediction: Packers win 29-19

Pick: Packers -3.5

O/U: Over 47

NFL Rankings – Week 3

StatsInTheWild MLB rankings as of September 18, 2012 at 6:10pm.  SOS=strength of schedule

Team Rank Change Record ESPN TeamRankings.com SOS Points Diff
San Francisco 1 ↑1 2-0 1 2 10 +16
Green Bay 2 ↓1 1-1 4 13 23 +5
New England 3 1-1 5 7 32 +19
Baltimore 4 1-1 6 6 7 +30
Pittsburgh 5 ↑1 1-1 9 12 22 +5
New Orleans 6 ↓1 0-2 24 23 24 -16
Houston 7 ↑2 2-0 2 10 29 +40
Atlanta 8 2-0 3 9 30 +22
Detroit 9 ↓2 1-1 13 14 12 -4
San Diego 10 ↑2 2-0 11 11 26 +36
Philadelphia 11 ↓1 2-0 7 4 11 +2
Arizona 12 ↑5 2-0 14 1 2 +6
NY Giants 13 ↑2 1-1 8 8 1 0
Seattle 14 ↑5 1-1 17 3 5 +16
Chicago 15 ↓4 1-1 12 21 13 +7
Cincinnati 16 ↑2 1-1 16 17 19 -24
NY Jets 17 ↓4 1-1 18 20 15 +3
Denver 18 ↓2 1-1 10 16 4 +6
Dallas 19 ↓5 1-1 15 5 6 -13
Miami 20 ↑3 1-1 25 18 21 +2
Carolina 21 ↑3 1-1 19 22 20 +2
Tennessee 22 ↓2 0-2 26 27 18 -49
Buffalo 23 ↑3 1-1 22 25 28 -2
Washington 24 ↓2 1-1 20 15 17 +5
Oakland 25 ↓4 0-2 30 28 27 -30
Kansas City 26 ↓1 0-2 28 30 31 -34
Minnesota 27 1-1 29 31 9 0
Tampa Bay 28 1-1 21 24 25 -1
Cleveland 29 ↑1 0-2 32 26 8 -8
Jacksonville 30 ↓1 0-2 31 32 14 -23
St. Louis 31 1-1 23 19 3 -1
Indianapolis 32 1-1 27 29 16 -17

Cheers.

Going for 2

Update: Apparently, it seems, I am completely wrong about this, and that it is well established that a team should go for two earlier.  Via Twitter, @bdoc87 points to the book “Mathletics” where they suggest going to two in this situation as early as the second quarter.  There is also this chart, which says that you should go for two at any point in the second half if you are down 9 after scoring a touchdown.

Here is an article by Chase Stuart from www.footballperspective.com with the title “Trailing by 15 in the middle of the 4th quarter, teams are foolish to not go for 2 after touchdowns”.   They are arguing, as stated in the title of the article, that if a team is down by 15 in the middle of the final quarter and they score a touchdown (cutting the lead to 9), that they should go for two in an attempt to cut the lead to 7 rather than take the extra point and cut the lead to 8.  This is a fair argument and the author may well be correct, but they seem to offer absolutely no evidence that this is the correct decision.  For instance, the author states:

If you are going to convert the 2-point attempt, it doesn’t matter all that much whether you go for it early or late. If you’re going to miss it, going for it earlier significantly improves your odds of pulling off a miraculous comeback, precisely because you’re [sic] got almost no chance if you miss it late.

The author first notes that it doesn’t really matter whether you go for the 2 points early or late if you are going to convert it.  Sure fine, I’ll agree with that.  But then in the next sentence argues that “going for it earlier significantly improves your odds of pulling off a miraculous comeback”.  Is this true?  It may well be, but I see nothing in the article that even remotely supports this point.  It seems to just be stated as fact with no supporting evidence.  I  am gonna need more proof than this.  Ideally, one would look to collect actual data on this, and try to compare the two decisions.  However, it seems like football coaches almost always go for one, so a simulation study may be better here.  Make some assumptions, develop a model for a football game, and simulate this scenario say 10000 times going for the extra point and 10000 times going for 2.  Then you can estimate the probabilities of a win and say a team will win X percent of the time going for 1 and Y percent of the time going to 2.  I suspect there probably really isn’t much of a difference at all, but I have no evidence for or against this point.  It’s simply my opinion.  It looks to me like this entire article is stating a hypothesis (going for two is better than going for one), and that it is the authors opinion that going for two is better than going for one.  However, they seem to offer no evidence at all in support of their claims.  Although maybe I am missing something.

Go Falcons!

Cheers.

NCAA Football Rankings – 9/17/2012

NCAA Football Rankings after week 3 as of 9/17/2012 at 6:13am

 

Rank

Team

Record

1 TEXAS  3-0
2 TEXAS TECH  3-0
3 KANSAS STATE  3-0
4 ALABAMA  3-0
5 LSU  3-0
6 IOWA STATE  3-0
7 ARIZONA  3-0
8 STANFORD  3-0
9 OKLAHOMA  2-0
10 TCU  2-0
11 WEST VIRGINIA  2-0
12 BAYLOR  2-0
13 GEORGIA  3-0
14 SO CAROLINA  3-0
15 NOTRE DAME  3-0
16 OREGON  3-0
17 FLORIDA  3-0
18 OKLAHOMA STATE  2-1
19 UCLA  3-0
20 USC  2-1
21 MISS STATE  3-0
22 OREGON STATE  1-0
23 OHIO STATE  3-0
24 ARIZONA STATE  2-1
25 NORTHWESTERN  3-0
26 FLORIDA STATE  3-0
27 CLEMSON  3-0
28 TEXAS A&M  1-1
29 NEBRASKA  2-1
30 LOUISVILLE  3-0
31 CINCINNATI  2-0
32 MICHIGAN  2-1
33 MISSOURI  2-1
34 KANSAS  1-2
35 GEORGIA TECH  2-1
36 WASHINGTON  2-1
37 TENNESSEE  2-1
38 MINNESOTA  3-0
39 OLE MISS  2-1
40 BYU  2-1
41 MICHIGAN STATE  2-1
42 UTAH  2-1
43 RUTGERS  3-0
44 PURDUE  2-1
45 MARYLAND  2-1
46 WISCONSIN  2-1
47 NC STATE  2-1
48 IOWA  2-1
49 CONNECTICUT  2-1
50 WASHINGTON ST  2-1
51 KENTUCKY  1-2
52 MIAMI-FLORIDA  2-1
53 LOUISIANA TECH  2-0
54 INDIANA  2-1
55 FRESNO STATE  2-1
56 SAN JOSE ST  2-1
57 PITTSBURGH  1-2
58 CALIFORNIA  1-2
59 ILLINOIS  2-1
60 MIDDLE TENNESSEE  2-1
61 OHIO U  3-0
62 AUBURN  1-2
63 UTAH STATE  2-1
64 PENN STATE  1-2
65 ARKANSAS  1-2
66 SYRACUSE  1-2
67 DUKE  2-1
68 SO FLORIDA  2-1
69 NEVADA  2-1
70 VANDERBILT  1-2
71 VIRGINIA TECH  2-1
72 SAN DIEGO ST  2-1
73 BOISE STATE  1-1
74 TOLEDO  2-1
75 UCF  2-1
76 TEMPLE  1-1
77 TX-SAN ANTONIO  3-0
78 VIRGINIA  2-1
79 TULSA  2-1
80 BOSTON COLLEGE  1-2
81 TEXAS STATE  1-1
82 WAKE FOREST  2-1
83 NORTH CAROLINA  1-2
84 ULM  1-1
85 COLORADO  0-3
86 BALL STATE  2-1
87 LOUISIANA  2-1
88 COLORADO STATE  1-2
89 WESTERN KY  2-1
90 WYOMING  0-3
91 UNLV  0-3
92 HAWAII  1-1
93 NEW MEXICO  1-2
94 AIR FORCE  1-1
95 TEXAS-EL PASO  1-2
96 NORTH TEXAS  1-2
97 BUFFALO  1-1
98 TROY  1-2
99 NORTHERN ILL  2-1
100 EAST CAROLINA  2-1
101 ARKANSAS STATE  1-2
102 IDAHO  0-3
103 BOWLING GREEN  1-2
104 SOUTH ALABAMA  1-2
105 FLA ATLANTIC  1-2
106 MARSHALL  1-2
107 RICE  1-2
108 FIU  1-2
109 NEW MEXICO ST  1-2
110 SMU  1-2
111 WESTERN MICH  1-2
112 NAVY  0-2
113 KENT STATE  1-1
114 ARMY  0-2
115 CENTRAL MICH  1-1
116 SOUTHERN MISS  0-2
117 UAB  0-2
118 EASTERN MICH  0-3
119 MEMPHIS  0-3
120 TULANE  0-2
121 HOUSTON  0-3
122 MIAMI-OHIO  1-2
123 AKRON  1-2
124 MASSACHUSETTS  0-3

Cheers.

NFL Week 2 Predictions

Week 2 (11-5 SU, 9-7 ATS, 8-8 O/U)

Thursday @8:20pm

Chicago Bears at Green Bay Packers

Prediction: Packers wins 26-21

Pick: Packers -5

O/U: Under 50.5

Sunday @1pm

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at New York Giants

Prediction: Giants 24-21

Pick: Buccaneers +7.5

O/U: Over 43.5

Arizona Cardinals at New England Patriots

Prediction: Patriots wins 28-20

Pick: Cardinals +13.5

O/U: Under 48

Minnesota Vikings at Indianapolis Colts

Prediction: Colts win 23-22

Pick: Colts +1.5

O/U: Over 44

New Orleans Saints at Carolina Panthers

Prediction: Saints win 29-20

Pick: Saints -2.5

O/U: Under 50.5

Kansas City Chiefs at Buffalo Bills

Prediction: Bills win 21-20

Pick: Chiefs +3.5

O/U: Under 45

Baltimore Ravens at Philadelphia Eagles

Prediction: Ravens win 25-24

Pick: Ravens +2.5

O/U: Over 46

Oakland Raiders at Miami Dolphins

Prediction: Dolphins win 21-18

Pick: Dolphins +2.5

O/U: Over 37.5

Cleveland Browns at Cincinnati Bengals

Prediction: Cincinnati wins 18-16

Pick: Browns +9.5

O/U: Under 38.5

Houston Texans at Jacksonville Jaguars

Prediction: Texans win 25-18

Pick: Jaguars +7.5

O/U: Over 41.5

Sunday @4:05pm

Dallas Cowboys at Seattle Seahawks

Prediction: Cowboys win 24-18

Pick: Dallas -3.5

O/U: Over 41.5

Sunday @4:25pm

Washington Redskins at St. Louis Rams

Prediction: Redskins win 18-16

Pick: Rams +3.5

O/U: Under 45.5

New York Jets at Pittsburgh Steelers

Prediction:  Steelers win 23-22

Pick: Jets +6.5

O/U: Over 41.5

Tennessee Titans at San Diego Chargers

Prediction: Chargers win 26-21

Pick: Titans +5.5

O/U: Over 44.5

 Sunday @8:25

Detroit Lions at San Francisco 49ers

Prediction: 49ers win 22-21

Pick: Lions +6.5

O/U: Under 46.5

Monday @8:35pm

Denver Broncos at Atlanta Falcons

Prediction: Falcons win 25-20

Pick: Falcons -3.5

O/U: Under 51

StatsInTheWild on Deadspin

StatsInTheWild on Deadspin.com

Cheers.  

NFL Week 1 predictions

Week 1 (11-5 SU, 9-7 ATS, 8-8 O/U)

Wednesday @8:30pm

Dallas Cowboys at New York Giants

Prediction: Dallas wins 24-23

Pick: Cowboys +3.5

O/U: Over 47

Sunday @1pm

Indianapolis Colts at Chicago Bears

Prediction: Indianapolis wins 22-21

Pick: Colts +10

O/U: Over 41.5

Philadelphia Eagles at Cleveland Browns

Prediction: Eagles win 24-16

Pick: Eagles -8.5

O/U: Under 41

Buffalo Bills at New York Jets

Prediction: Jets win 23-20

Pick: Jets -3

O/U: Over 41

Washington Redskins at New Orleans Saints

Prediction: Saints win 28-17

Pick: Saints -9.5

O/U: Under 49.5

New England Patriots at Tennessee Titans

Prediction: Patriots win 27-20

Pick: Patriots -6.5

O/U: Under 47.5

Jacksonville Jaguars at Minnesota Vikings

Prediction: Vikings win 23-20

Pick: Jaguars +4.5

O/U: Over 38

Miami Dolphins at Houston Texans

Prediction: Texans win 23-21

Pick: Dolphins +9.5

O/U: Over 43

St. Louis Rams at Detroit Lions

Prediction: Lions win 21-16

Pick: Rams +9

O/U: Under 46.5

Atlanta Falcons at Kansas City Chiefs

Prediction: Falcons win 24-17

Pick: Falcons -1

O/U: Under 41.5

Sunday @4:25pm

Seattle Seahawks at Arizona Cardinals

Prediction: Cardinals win 22-19

Pick: Cardinals +1.5

O/U: Under 40.5

San Francisco 49ers at Green Bay Packers

Prediction: Packers wins 27-19

Pick: Packers -5.5

O/U: Over 45

Carolina Panthers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Prediction: Panthers wins 21-20

Pick: Buccaneers +2.5

O/U: Under 46.5

 Sunday @8:20

Pittsburgh Steelers at Denver Broncos

Prediction: Steelers win 23-20

Pick: Steelers Even

O/U: Under 44

Monday @7pm

Cincinnati Bengals at Baltimore Ravens

Prediction: Ravens win 23-18

Pick: Bengals +6

O/U: Over 40.5

Monday @10:15pm

San Diego Chargers at Oakland Raiders

Prediction: Chargers win 27-19

Pick: Chargers -1.5

O/U: Under 47.5

 

Cheers.