Category Archives: NCAA College Football
August 29, 2013
Prediction: Central Florida 38-20
Prediction: Ball State 34-24
Prediction: Western Kentucky 25-23
Prediction: Kent State 28-21
Prediction: South Carolina 24-22
Prediction: Rutgers 21-20
Prediction: San Jose State 35-19
Prediction: Georgia State 26-23
Prediction: USC 36-13
Prediction: South Alabama 27-21
Prediction: UConn 24-17
Prediction: Tulsa 27-17
Prediction: Utah State 24-19
Prediction: Middle Tennessee State 36-21
August 30, 2013
Prediction: Houston 42-23
Prediction: Texas Tech 30-23
August 31, 2013
Prediction: Troy 38-29
Prediction: Tennessee 47-16
Boise State 23-16
Prediction: BYU 26-14
Prediction: Ohio State 34-14
Prediction: Michigan 35-19
Prediction: San Diego State 40-17
Prediction: Oregon State 33-16
Prediction: Georgia Tech 44-14
Prediction: Maryland 23-20
Prediction: Georgia 28-27
Prediction: Eastern Michigan 27-25
Prediction: North Texas 34-22
Prediction: Indiana 35-24
Prediction: Jackson State 29-27
Prediction: Louisiana Tech 37-33
Prediction: Arkansas 33-27
Prediction: Oklahoma 38-20
Prediction: TCU 17-16
Prediction: Wisconsin wins 43-7
Prediction: South Florida 31-23
Prediction: Vanderbilt 24-23
Prediction: Oklahoma State 34-21
Prediction: Army 54-17
Prediction: Missouri 40-10
Prediction: MUCL 37-33
Prediction: Minnesota 30-19
Prediction: Texas 41-13
Prediction: Oregon 58-10
Prediction: Duke 38-20
Prediction: Kansas State 17-14
Prediction: Arizona 43-19
Prediction: Northern Illinois 23-19
Prediction: Iowa State 27-19
Prediction: Northwestern 31-23
Prediction: Oklahoma State 34-33
Prediction: Penn State 27-22
Prediction: Wake Forest 34-12
Prediction: Cincinnati 30-23
Prediction: Texas A&M 48-20
Prediction: Illinois 27-19
Prediction: Notre Dame 30-12
Prediction: Southern Mississippi 28-27
Prediction: New Mexico 30-28
Prediction: Florida 31-14
Prediction: Boston College 27-21
Prediction: Alabama 26-9
Prediction: Auburn 28-19
Prediction: Michigan State 28-17
West Virginia 35-17
Prediction: Baylor 45-27
Prediction: Nebraska 40-17
NCAA Football Rankings after week 3 as of 9/17/2012 at 6:13am
|56||SAN JOSE ST||2-1|
|72||SAN DIEGO ST||2-1|
|109||NEW MEXICO ST||1-2|
I’ve picked all 35 bowl games based on my rankings. I’ll post my running record as the games are played. (Also, check out my final regular season rankings here.)
And which games am I looking forward to this year? My number one pick for bowl entertainment is the Fight Hunger bowl. This monstrosity of a “bowl game” will feature a UCLA team with a losing record who had to petition the NCAA to even be allowed to play in a bowl game and an Illinois team on a 6 game losing streak. These are the kind of match-ups that I live for.
✓=Correct Pick; ✗=Incorrect Pick
|Famous Idaho Potato||Ohio||✓|
|New Orleans||San Diego State||✗|
|Las Vegas||Boise State||✓|
|Champs Sports||Notre Dame||✗|
|Music City||Miss State||✓|
|Capital One||South Carolina||✓|
Ok. So I’m not sure I can defend my rankings, but I am going to try. Even after losing to Iowa State, I still have Oklahoma State ranked number 1. Let me try to explain what I think it going on.
The Big 12 won a lot of their non-conference games at the beginning of the season, so I’ve had them ranked as the best conference for most of the way. What this means is that since most of the teams are ranked so high in the Big 12, that a loss to one of those really good teams doesn’t hurt that much
Ok State won it’s first three games easily over Louisiana-Lafayette, Arizona, and Tulsa. Then they had to play 9 straight conference games in the toughest conference in the country. Their only real weak game in conference play is Kansas. They’ve beat Texas A&M, Texas, Kansas State, Missouri, Texas Tech, and Baylor before falling to Iowa State. That’s impressive. According to my rankings, all 6 of these teams are top 25. And their one loss is to a team that I had ranked at 22 before they beat Ok State (I have Iowa State at 17 now). They also beat Tulsa, who I have ranked 29th.
LSU’s conference wins are against Mississippi, Mississippi State, Kentucky, Tennessee, Florida, Auburn, and Alabama. (Georgia and South Carolina are noticeably absent from LSU’s schedule.) The first 6 teams have a combined record of 29-38. Then they have that big win over Alabama.
Their non-conference games were against Oregon, West Virginia, Northwestern State, and Western Kentucky. The Oregon win is impressive, but the other three games are jokes. West Virginia is currently third in the Big “We still really get an automatic BCS berth?” East, and LSU shouldn’t even be allowed to schedule games against Northwestern State and Western Kentucky. As I see it, LSU has three wins over top 25 teams (Alabama, Oregon, and Auburn).
In review, I have Ok State at 6-1 against top 25 teams and LSU at 3-0. My ranking system rewards teams for playing tough games and Oklahoma State has had one of the toughest schedules in the country this season week in and week out, while LSU the occasional tough opponent. From top to bottom the Big 12 is much deeper than the SEC.
So that’s my attempt at a defense. I guess I’ll have to wait until the bowl game results to see if I am right.
Rankings as of 11/13/2011. Previous weeks rankings here.
No changes at the top. I’ve still got Oklahoma State number 1, as I have all season. LSU comes in at number 2 and Oklahoma at number 3. Texas falls 4 spots after failing to score a touchdown in their loss to Missouri. Oregon jumps to 7 after it’s victory over previously undefeated Stanford, who falls to 13.
The two biggest movers upward were Nebraska and Michigan. Nebraska defeated Penn State to climb 8 spots to 16 and Michigan beat a rapidly fading Illinois team to climb 7 spots to 18.
Texas A&M and Auburn both fell 6 spots to 20 and 21, respectively. Texas A&M lost in 4 OT to Kansas State while Auburn fell to Georgia. Missouri and Michigan State squeak their way into the top 25 at 24 and 25, respectively, as Texas Tech and Georgia Tech drop out.
By conference, I have 8 Big 12 teams in the top 25 and 6 SEC teams. The Big 10 has 4 teams, the Pac 12 gets 3, and the ACC has 2. Mountain West and Conference USA have one team each.
BCS: My offer still stands…….if you want to contact me you can send me a tweet @StatsInTheWild.
Let’s get something straight right now. Wisconsin is not a top 25 football team. 4 out of the 6 BCS computer polls have them outside of the top 25 and the other two polls have them at 24 and 16. The clowns (meant with the utmost respect) who vote in the human polls have the Badgers ranked at 14 in both polls. Let’s take a look at why the computers are right:
Wisconsin is 7-2 overall and 3-2 in the perennially (wildly) over-rated Big 10 (the conference with the worst division names in all of sports). Wisconsin won its first 6 games over UNLV, Oregon State, Northern Illinois, South Dakota, Nebraska, and Indiana. While Nebraska is a very impressive win, the 6 other teams they have beaten are currently 2-6 (MWC), 2-7 (PAC12), 6-3 (MAC), 5-4 (FCS-Great West), 1-9 (Big 10), 4-5 (Big 10). I’m not impressed by any of those wins. The three other games Wisconsin has played (Nebraska (7-2) , Michigan State (7-2), and Ohio State(6-3)), they have 1 win. The W-L record of the their 7 victories is 27-36. And if you remove Nebraska (which, as mentioned before, is actually an impressive win) there W-L for opponents in victories is 20-34.
Jeff Sagarin has Wisconsin’s strength of schedule ranked at 87. The only BCS top 25 teams with weaker schedules that that are Houston (112), who plays in Conference USA, and Cincinnati (95) who plays in the Big “We still seriously get an automatic BCS bid?” East, (which sent a 4 loss UConn team to the Fiesta Bowl last year). (“Most of the attention before the game focused on Oklahoma’s poor performance in past BCS games as well as Connecticut’s difficulties in selling tickets“.)
So, please Harris poll voters, I implore you to stop voting for teams like Wisconsin who don’t deserve to be in the top 25. (And while you’re at it, stop voting for Cincinnati, too.)
Alabama hosted LSU yesterday in what was billed as number 1 versus number 2. This is a great way to market a football game, but it completely ignores reality. 6 out of 7 BCS computer polls, which the BCS itself has selected to rank college football teams, had Oklahoma State ranked number 1 heading into the LSU-Alabama game, and the lone dissenting system had Oklahoma State ranked number 2. That means there were 0 computer rankings that had LSU-Alabama as a 1 vs 2 game. I guess it’s just harder to market a 2 vs 3 game.