Category Archives: Politics

With Voters Focused on Economy, Obama Lead Narrows: Social Issues Rank as Lowest Priorities

With Voters Focused on Economy, Obama Lead Narrows

Cheers.

Barack Obama Auto-Complete – 4/16/2012

GOOGLE

 

 


YAHOO

BING

Cheers.

Mitt Romney Auto-Complete – 4/16/2012

GOOGLE

YAHOO

BING

Cheers.

Gallup poll: Romney, Obama statistically tied in 2012 matchup

Gallup poll: Romney, Obama statistically tied in 2012 matchup

European Debt: Graphically viewed as piles of Euros

The European Super Highway of Debt via chartporn.org

Cheers.

U.S. News: “Poll: Americans, 2-1, Fear Obama’s Re-election”…..well, not at all, actually.

I was listening to the radio this morning (Dennis and Callahan) and one of the callers to the show mentioned a U.S. News poll that found that American’s biggest fear in 2012, by a 2-1 margin, was the re-election of Barack Obama.  Now, if you’re calling into a sports radio show, I’m not going to trust you;  if you’re calling in to a sport radio show to talk about politics with Dennis and Callahan, I trust you even less.  And I didn’t trust this guy’s “statistic” that nearly two-thirds of those polled were fearful of Obama being re-elected.

So when I got to work this morning, I looked up this poll.  The article I believe the caller was referring to is this one by Paul Bedard complete with the headline “Poll: Americans, 2-1, Fear Obama’s Reelection”.  The poll results cited in the article are as follows:

As we enter the presidential election year of 2012, what potential news event do you fear the most?

President Obama wins reelection 33%

Taxes will increase 31%

Iran will get a nuclear weapon 16%

Obama will lose reelection 16%

North Korea will attack South Korea 4%

I don’t know who looks at the results of this poll and takes away the headline “Americans, 2-1, Fear Obama’s Reelection”.  That headline implies (intentionally?) that the question that was asked in the poll was “Do you fear Obama’s re-election” when, in fact, the question asked was “As we enter the presidential election year of 2012, what potential news event do you fear the most?”

These are entirely different questions and to draw the conclusion that “Americans, 2-1, Fear Obama’s Reelection” is, at best, unintentionally misleading.  You could say “Americans, 2-1, cite Obama’s re-election as their number one fear,” but that is an entirely different statement.  If you really want to know how many American’s fear Obama’s re-election, you need to ask that question in a well sampled poll, which this may or may not have been.

Regardless, there is no way to look at the results of this pool and honestly draw the conclusion that “Americans, 2-1, Fear Obama’s Reelection”.   This is either a misunderstanding leading to a misleading headline or intentionally dishonest.

PS Regardless of your politics, how can anymore be more fearful of the 2012 presidential outcome or your taxes going up than of Iran getting a nuclear weapon.  Maybe you’re annoyed or bothered that your taxes will go up, but do you fear an increase in taxes?  Iran getting a nuclear weapon is more than just an annoyance or a bother.

Cheers.

Republican Presidential Candidates and Google Auto-Complete – 12/29/2011

Auto-complete terms for republican candidates for 12/28/2011.  I searched for these after signing out of google and then I “disabled customizations based on search activity” so my search history would not interfere with the auto-completes.

Here is a plot based on the google auto-complete search data.

And here is the complete data for Romney, Perry, Cain, Paul and Gingrich.

“Mitt Romney” “Rick Perry” “Herman Cain” “Ron Paul” “Newt Gingrich”
wiki gay wiki 2012 scandal
bio drunk 999 wiki affair
 net worth wiki pokemon polls bio
 political views new hampshire sexual harassment on gay marriage gay marriage
 for president issues quotes quotes issues
economic plan  debate  net worth  issues  wives 
 racist bad lip reading  abortion  abortion  polls website 
evolution hunting lodge  scandal  news  website 
 abortion speech  Libya  ron paul  quotes 
 taxes video  smoking ad  debate  books 

Bachmann, Santorum, and Hunstman.

“Michele Bachmann” “Rick Santorum”  “John Huntsman” 
 quotes gay  daughters 
 hot wiki  net worth 
 newsweek scandal  sr 
 corndog for president  jr 
 bio quotes  political views 
 jimmy fallon fetus  issues 
 husband on the issues  chinese 
 crazy biography  twitter 
 hpv evolution  abortion 
twitter twitter  polls 

Cheers!

Preventing gerrymandering with convexity

I was just reading this from slate.com about gerrymandering, and it struck me that you could, in some sense, prevent egregious gerrymandering by measuring the convexity of the shape of the district and not allowing districts that are extremely non-convex.  Apparently,  others have also thought of this there are several papers on the topic including “Gerrymandering and Convexity” and “Can Compactness constrain the Gerrymander?“.

Cheers.

Rick Perry and Google Auto-complete 10-11-2011

Auto-complete for search “Rick Perry ” on Google over the last couple of weeks. The last row is the polling percentage based on Real Clear Politics polls.

8-17-2011 8-30-2011 9-6-2011 9-9-2011 9-12-2011
 for president  for president  for president for president gay
gay  gay  gay gay for president
 wiki  wiki  wiki wiki wiki
 for president website  2012  prayer prayer prayer
 2012  for president 2012  2012 galileo secession
18.4 23 29 29 31.8
9-15-2011 9-23-2011 9-26-2011 10-5-2011 10-11-2011
gay  for president  for president for president gay
for president  gay  gay gay for president
 wiki  wiki  wiki wiki wiki
prayer prayer  prayer hunting lodge issues
secession
30.9 28.4 28.4 18 15.3

Auto-complete for search “Rick Perry is ” on google over the last couple of weeks. The last row is the polling percentage based on Real Clear Politics polls.

8-17-2011 8-30-2011 9-6-2011 9-9-2011 9-12-2011
gay gay gay gay gay
an idiot an idiot an idiot an idiot an idiot
a rino a rino crazy crazy crazy
evil evil nuts nuts scary
not a conservative not a conservative stupid stupid evil
18.4 23 29 29 31.8
9-15-2011 9-23-2011 9-26-2011 10-5-2011 10-11-2011
gay gay gay gay gay
an idiot an idiot an idiot an idiot an idiot
crazy crazy crazy crazy crazy
scary scary scary scary scary
evil
30.9 28.4 28.4 18 15.3

Cheers.