Minnesota at Carolina

Prediction: Panthers 24-19 (63.9%)

Pick: Vikings +7

Total: Under 43

Denver at Cincinnati 

Prediction: Bengals 22-21 (51.0%)

Pick: Broncos +3.5 

Total: Over 42

Detroit at Green Bay 

Prediction: Packers 26-21 (62.2%)

Pick: Lions +7 PUSH

Total: Under 48 

San Diego at Indianapolis

Prediction: Colts 25-23 (54.8%) 

Pick: Colts -1

Total: Under 51

Baltimore at Jacksonville

Prediction: Ravens 22-20 (55.9%)

Pick: Ravens -1.5

Total: Under 45.5 

NY Jets at Kansas City

Prediction: Chiefs 23-20 (58.4%)

Pick: Chiefs -3

Total: Under 43

Cleveland at Miami

Prediction: Dolphins 24-21 (58.8%)

Pick: Browns +9.5

Total: Over 42

Washington at NY Giants

Prediction: Giants 24-21 (58.3%)

Pick: Washington Football Team +4.5 

Total: Under 47

Pittsburgh at Philadelphia

Prediction: Steelers 24-23 (50.1%)

Pick: Eagles +4 

Total: Over 47

San Francisco at Seattle 

Prediction: Seahawks 23-16 (69.7%)

Pick: 49ers +10 

Total: Under 41

Los Angeles (nee St. Louis) at Tampa Bay

Prediction: Buccaneers 21-20 (52.6%)

Pick: Rams +4 

Total:Under 41.5 

Chicago at Dallas

Prediction: Cowboys 24-21 (57.9%)

Pick: Bears +7

Total: Over 44.5

Oakland at Tennessee

Prediction: Titans 22-21 (51.5%)

Pick: Titans +1.5 

Total: Under 47

Atlanta at New Orleans

Prediction: Saints 27-25 (58.3%)

Pick: Falcons +3

Total: Under 54

You’ve probably heard of the Washington Football Team rule before.  It states that:

If the Redskins win their last home game before the election, the party that won the previous election wins the next election and that if the Redskins lose, the challenging party’s candidate wins.

This has held true in 17 of the last 19 elections.  However, it’s only 1 for 3 in the last three elections.  Not a great track record.

So back in 2012 I looked for a better sports predictor of the presidency and I found it.  

From 1948 through 2008, if:

1.  The Phillies win less than 92.

2. The Indians win less than 97 games.

3.  The Red Sox win at least 75 games.

The Republican candidate has won the election every single time.  However, this method predicted that Romney would win in 2012, which did not end up happening.

So what does this say about the presidency this year?

The Phillies are currently sitting at 65 wins with only 16 left to play, the Indians are at 84 wins with 15 left to play, and the Red Sox are already at 81 wins.  Check, almost surely check, and check.

The only chance the Clinton now has to win the election is to pray that Cleveland goes 13-2  or better in their remaining 15 games.  This is doubly odd as Cleveland, host city of the 2016 Republican National Convention, is once again at the center of the political world.

With the new findings Trump and his team are allegedly concerned that the Clinton campaign will be fixing Cleveland Indians games from now until the end of the season in spite of the fact that no evidence of game tampering has been found since 1919.  Nevertheless, Trump’s team has encouraged his supporters to attend Cleveland games and watch diligently to make sure there is no fraud happening.  Further, Republican lawmakers are encouraging baseball’s commissioner, Rob Manfred, and the front office of the Cleveland Indians to institute stricter ticketing policies.  These lawmakers want to prevent fans from attending games unless they have their ticket and at least two forms of government ID to present at the time of entrance to the stadium.  They argue this it to prevent fans from attending both halves of a double header with only one ticket.   Democratic lawmakers believe this is just a thinly veiled attempt to keep certain demographics of fans from attending games.

Cheers.

Key: Team -Median Record (Mean Wins)

AFC

East

New England: 12-4 (11.562)

Buffalo: 7-9 (7.388)

NY Jets: 7-9 (7.068)

Miami: 6-10 (6.243)

North

Cincinnati: 10-6 (10.348)

Pittsburgh: 10-6 (10.249)

Baltimore: 9-7 (8.666)

Cleveland: 5-11 (4.557)

South

Houston: 8-8 (8.399)

Indianapolis: 8-8 (7.962)

Tennessee: 5-11 (4.621)

Jacksonville: 4-12 (3.666)

West

Denver: 12-4 (12.228)

Kansas City: 10-6 (10.127)

Oakland: 5-11 (5.107)

San Diego: 8-8 (8.212)

NFC

East

Dallas: 8-8 (8.036)

Philadelphia: 8-8 (7.549)

NY Giants: 7-9 (6.913)

Washington: 5-11 (5.347)

North

Green Bay: 13-3 (12.476)

Detroit: 9-7 (8.978)

Minnesota: 9-7 (8.542)

Chicago: 7-9 (7.042)

South

Carolina: 11-5 (10.757)

New Orleans: 8-8 (8.295)

Atlanta: 6-10 (6.510)

Tampa Bay: 4-12 (4.386)

West

Seattle: 13-3 (13.386)

Arizona: 9-7 (9.089)

San Francisco: 7-9 (6.724)

Los Angeles (nee St. Louis): 6-10 (5.567)

Playoff Predictions

AFC

1. Denver
2. New England
3. Cincinnati
4. Houston
5. Pittsburgh
6. Kansas City

NFC

1. Seattle
2. Green Bay
3. Carolina
4. Dallas
5. Arizona
6. Detroit

Wild Card Games

Kansas City (6) beats Cincinnati (3)

Pittsburgh (5) beats Houston(4)

(3) Carolina beats (6) Detroit

(5) Arizona beats (4) Dallas

Divisional Round

(1) Denver beats (6) Kansas City

(2) New England beats (5) Pittsburgh

(1) Seattle beats (5) Arizona

(3) Carolina beats (2) Green Bay

Conference Championships

(1) Denver beats (2) New England

(1) Seattle beats (3) Carolina

Super Bowl

(1) Seattle beats (1) Denver

New England at Arizona

One of my colleagues, Tim O’Brien, showed a slide in the first week of his classes describing how he first found out about R:

Here is that email from 1996 (TWENTY years ago!!!) where Tim asked Ross Ihaka how to get R, and Ross helped him out.  #amazing #history

Cheers.

There is a general election happening right now and the NFL season is starting.  Let’s talk about the candidates chances in terms of NFL games.

At the The Upshot they track 8 different presidential forecasts, 5 of which give actual percentages.  Currently (at 11:07am on September 2nd) Clinton’s win probabilities range from a high of 94% based on the Princeton Election Consortium’s forecast to a low of 74% for FiveThirtyEight and DailyKos.  (PredictWise has it at 77% and the New York Times has it at 87%).

Let’s put these probabilities in context using Pro Football Reference’s NFL win probability calculator:

Let’s start by looking at the worst case scenario for Trump: 6% chance to win.  (Unless otherwise noted, I’m assuming the spread is 0.)

• 5.9%: A 21 point underdog wins the game outright.
• 5.8%: Your team is down 15 at halftime.
• 5.97%: Your team has the ball and is trailing by 7 with 2 minutes left with 1st and 10 from your own 3 yard line.
• 6.09%: Your team has the ball and is trailing by 3 with 10 seconds left with 1st and 10 from your own 10 yard line.

Now let’s look at Trump’s best case scenario for Trump: 26%

• 26.4%: An 8.5 point underdog wins the game outright.
• 26.4%: Your team is down 6 at halftime.
• 26.28%: Your team has the ball and is trailing by 7 with 2 minutes left with 1st and 10 from your opponents 13 yard line.
• 25.37%: Your has the ball and is trailing by 3 with 10 seconds left with 1st and 10 from your opponents 40 yard line.

In Clinton’s best case scenario, she has  94% chance to win the election.

• 93.78%: Your team has the ball and is up by 4 with 2 minutes left with 1st and 10 from your own 20 yard line.
• 94.2%: Your team is up 15 at halftime.
• 94.1%: A 21 point favorite wins the game outright.

In Clinton’s worst case scenario, she has  74% chance to win the election.

• 74.83%: Your team has the ball and is up by 3 with 4 minutes left with 1st and 10 from your own 20 yard line.
• 73.6%: Your team is up 6 at halftime.
• 73.6%: An 8.5 point favorite wins the game outright.

So Clinton’s chances of winning right now are comparable to a team that is somewhere between an 8.5 and 21 point favorite.  Or a team that is up somewhere between 6 and 15 points at half time.

Sort of unrelated fun fact that I found when looking up Super Bowl spreads:  That last three teams to be favored by more than 10 have all lost outright (2008 New England (-12), 2002 St. Louis (-14), 1998 Green Bay (-11)).

Cheers.