Category Archives: Uncategorized
NFL Rankings – Week 5
|
NFL Playoff Probabilities – Week 5
|
NFL Picks – Week 5
Arizona at San Francisco
Prediction: Cardinals 22-20 (53.2%)
Pick: 49ers +3
Total: Under 42.5
Washington at Baltimore
Prediction: Ravens 24-20 (60.3%)
Pick: Washington Football Team +4
Total: Under 45.5
Tampa Bay at Carolina
Prediction: Panthers 25-18 (67.8%)
Pick: Panthers -4.5
Total: Under 45
New England at Cleveland
Prediction: Patriots 26-22 (60.7%)
Pick: Browns +11
Total: Over 47
Cincinnati at Dallas
Prediction: Cowboys 22-21 (50.1%)
Pick: Cowboys +2
Total:Under 45.5
Atlanta at Denver
Prediction: Broncos 27-22 (64.4%)
Pick: Broncos -4.5
Total: Over 46.5
Philadelphia at Detroit
Prediction: Lions 24-23 (52.3%)
Pick: Lions +3.5
Total: Over 46
NY Giants at Green Bay
Prediction: Packers 26-20 (64.8%)
Pick: Giants +7 PUSH
Total: Under 48
Chicago at Indianapolis
Prediction: Colts 24-22 (57.4%)
Pick: Bears +4.5
Total: Under 48
Tennessee at Miami
Prediction: Dolphins 23-20 (59.8%)
Pick: Titans +3.5
Total: Under 43
Houston at Minnesota
Prediction: Vikings 21-19 (55.4%)
Pick: Texans +7
Total: Under 40.5
San Diego at Oakland
Prediction: Chargers 23-22 (50.9%)
Pick: Chargers +3.5
Total: Under 51. 5
NY Jets at Pittsburgh
Prediction: Steelers 24-21 (60.3%)
Pick: Jets +7.5
Total: Under 48
Buffalo at Los Angeles (nee St. Louis)
Prediction: Bills 21-20 (50.5%)
Pick: Bills +1.5
Total: Over 39
If VPs #debate during an #MLB #playoff game, do they make a sound?
Did the VP debate tonight change anything? Below is a plot of estimated win probabilities for the two presidential candidates during the VP debate. There was almost no change at all. For comparison, the plot below that shows the win probability changing dramatically during the presidential debate.
So do the VP debates matter? According to the markets, the answer is very much no.
Cheers.
NFL Picks – Week 4
Miami at Cincinnati
Prediction: Bengals 25-20 (63.6%)
Pick: Dolphins +7.5
Total: Under 45
Los Angeles (nee St. Louis) at Arizona
Prediction: Cardinals 23-18 (64.3%)
Pick: Rams +7.5
Total: Under 43
Carolina at Atlanta
Prediction: Panthers 25-23 (55.5%)
Pick: Falcons +3
Total: Under 51
Oakland at Baltimore
Prediction: Ravens 23-19 (60.5%)
Pick: Ravens -3
Total: Under 46.5
Detroit at Chicago
Prediction: Lions 24-23 (50.6%)
Pick: Bears +3.5
Total: Under 48
Tennessee at Houston
Prediction: Texans 22-17 (64.5%)
Pick: Texans -5
Total: Under 40
Indianapolis at Jacksonville
Prediction: Colts 23-21 (55.1%)
Pick: Jaguars +2.5
Total: Under 49.5
Buffalo at New England
Prediction: Patriots 26-21 (64.8%)
Pick: Bills +7.5
Total: Over 44
Seattle at NY Jets
Prediction: Seahawks 21-18 (64.8%)
Pick: Seahawks -1
Total: Under 39.5
Kansas City at Pittsburgh
Prediction: Steelers 23-21 (56.1%)
Pick: Chiefs +5
Total: Under 47.5
New Orleans at San Diego
Prediction: Chargers 27-26 (52.6%)
Pick: Saints +4
Total: Under 54
Dallas at San Francisco
Prediction: 49ers 22-21 (51.7%)
Pick: 49ers +2.5
Total: Under 44.5
Denver at Tampa bay
Prediction: Broncos 24-21 (60.2%)
Pick: Broncos -3
Total: Over 43
Cleveland at Washington
Prediction: Washington Football Team 24-22 (56.5%)
Pick: Browns +7.5
Total: Under 47.5
NY Giants at Minnesota
Prediction: Vikings 22-20 (56.4%)
Pick: Giants +4.5
Total: Under 43
Clinton beat Trump. #debates
Three days after the first presidential debate, it’s fairly evident that Clinton won. And that it wasn’t even close. You can see below that Clinton has gotten a substantial boost in win probability based on the state electoral college markets on predictit.org. Clinton has also gained in the RealClearPolitics 2 and 4 way poll aggregations and her lead in the 2 way race is now at +3 and in the 4 way race is at +2.9. These leads are still a far cry from her nearly 8 point lead only a few weeks ago, but it must be a bit of a relief for Clinton who had been slipping recently over the past few weeks.
The plot below is based on the predicit.org state markets accounting for correlation of the voting patterns between states. Based on this, the mean number of electoral votes for Clinton is 298 with the most likely outcome for Clinton is getting 358 electoral votes. This is very much in line with other sites that are predicting at this moment such as Princeton Election Consortium, which has Clinton at 297 and FiveThirtyEight.com which has Clinton at 290.7.
Finally, here is a simulation of electoral vote totals if the state outcomes are assumed to be independent, which is clearly not true, but a nice simplifying assumption. 
Cheers.
NFL Playoff Probabilities – Week 4
|
Predicted NFL standings – Week 4
Projected Standings
AFC
AFC East
New England: 11-5 (3-0) 10.879
NY Jets: 7-9 (1-2) 7.141
Buffalo: 7-9 (1-2) 6.832
Miami: 6-10 (1-2) 6.426
AFC North
Pittsburgh: 10-6 (2-1) 9.476
Cincinnati: 9-7 (1-2) 8.650
Baltimore: 9-7 (3-0) 8.644
Cleveland: 4-12 (0-3) 3.963
AFC South
Houston: 8-8 (2-1) 8.464
Indianapolis: 8-8 (1-2) 7.961
Tennessee: 5-11 (1-2) 4.895
Jacksonville: 3-13 (0-3) 3.496
AFC West
Denver: 12-4 (3-0) 11.63
Kansas City: 9-7 (2-1) 8.554
San Diego: 8-8 (1-2) 7.513
Oakland: 5-11 (2-1) 5.515
NFC
NFC East
Philadelphia: 9-7 (3-0) 8.673
Dallas: 8-8 (2-1) 8.224
NY Giants: 7-9 (2-1) 6.634
Washington: 5-11 (1-2) 5.150
NFC North
Green Bay: 11-5 (2-1) 10.675
Minnesota: 9-7 (3-0) 8.832
Detroit: 8-8 (1-2) 7.575
Chicago: 6-10 (0-3) 5.599
NFC South
Carolina: 11-5 (1-2) 10.451
Atlanta: 7-9 (2-1) 7.149
New Orleans: 6-10 (0-3) 6.005
Tampa Bay: 4-12 (1-2) 3.882
NFC West
Seattle: 11-5 (2-1) 11.016
Arizona: 9-7 (1-2) 8.658
Los Angeles (nee St. Louis): 6-10 (2-1) 6.367
San Francisco: 5-11 (1-2) 5.071
Team – Median Predicted Record (Actual Record) Expected Wins
Italics: Projected playoff team
Projected Playoffs
AFC
- Denver
- New England
- Pittsburgh
- Houston
- Cincinnati
- Baltimore
NFC
- Seattle
- Green Bay
- Carolina
- Philadelphia
- Minnesota
- Arizona
NFL Rankings – Week 4
Note: Changes are two week changes. (I had a baby last week; didn’t get around to updating the rankings).
|
Stats in the Wild 