So I’ve been following some PredictIt.org markets lately.  Most notably, the Trump vs Clinton market.  Clinton’s shares are currently trading in the $0.65-$0.68 range which means traders believe there is a roughly 65%-68% that Clinton wins in November.  PredictIt.org also has state by state markets for the electoral college for around 30 states. So I wondered what would…

Originally posted on StatsbyLopez: I’ve long had my eye out for intriguing papers that cover my two favorite areas of research, causal inference and sports statistics. For unfamiliar readers, causal inference tools allow for the estimation of causal effects (i.e., does smoking cause cancer) in non-experimental settings. Given that almost all sports data is inherently observational,…

At the beginning of my post-doc, my adviser told me that she wanted me to write and R package. I told her I didn’t know how to do that, and she told me to figure it out. It’s really not that difficult and incredible rewarding. Even if you never put your package on CRAN, it’s…

Originally posted on That's a Clown Hypothesis, Bro!: I recently wrote an article about Todd Frazier’s stolen bases for BP Southside, the Baseball Prospectus White Sox site, and in doing so did a decent amount of digging into the different advanced measures of base-stealing productivity—something that would take into account all the necessary components and spit out a…

In 8 knockout games, three times a team scored first and lost (England, Switzerland, Ireland).   Cheers.

In a recent speech by cryogenically-frozen-fart come to life Donald Trump following the largest mass shooting in American history at Pulse Nightclub in Orlando he said: “I refuse to allow America to become a place where gay people, Christian people, and Jewish people, are the targets of persecution and intimidation by Radical Islamic preachers of…

Originally posted on Stats in the Wild: So, I was at Barnes and Noble today with a few hours to kill. I sat down and I started reading Malcolm Gladwell’s new book, Outliers: The Story of Success. The further I read, the more it became clear to me that he wasn’t really talking about outliers.…