Originally posted on God plays dice: From flight stats, describing a flight that is the first leg of a two-leg itinerary I’m flying in the near future – obviously this is the sort of flight where one is interested in knowing whether it tends to be on time, because one does not like being stuck…

Updated 2-26-2013 at 12:19am Resume ranks the teams based on what they have actually accomplished this season.  Predictor ranks teams based on how well they are expected to perform in the future.  Seed give the projected tournament seed for a team.   Teams W L Conf Resume Predictor Seed indiana 24 3 big-ten 1 1…

Originally posted on Normal Deviate: STATISTICS DECLARES WAR ON MACHINE LEARNING! Well I hope the dramatic title caught your attention. Now I can get to the real topic of the post, which is: finite sample bounds versus asymptotic approximations. In my last post I discussed Normal limiting approximations. One commenter, Csaba Szepesvari, wrote the following…

Using data from the 2012-2013 NCAA basketball season, I’ve ranked all of the division 1 teams in two ways.  First, I have build a retrospective model for the season ranking all of the teams based on what they have actually accomplished so far this season.  These rankings give weight to individuals games based on margin…

Updated 2-9-2013 at 12:07am   Rank Team Conf Record Score 1 MICHIGAN big10 21-2 86.86 2 MIAMI-FLORIDA acc 18-3 86.35 3 INDIANA big10 20-3 86.12 4 DUKE acc 20-2 85.96 5 FLORIDA sec 18-3 84.93 6 ARIZONA pac10 20-2 84.4 7 KANSAS big12 19-3 84.16 8 LOUISVILLE bigeast 19-4 84.13 9 SYRACUSE bigeast 19-3 83.24…

  Index Home Away HomePred AwayPred Home Win 1 army lehigh 68 79 0.05 2 connecticut south florida 63 60 0.65 3 georgia tech virginia 52 58 0.16 4 illinois wisconsin 59 66 0.15 5 louisville marquette 72 64 0.89 6 manhattan saint peters 62 57 0.77 7 marist rider 67 71 0.27 8 mcneese…

Updated 2/3/2013 at 12:34pm Indiana reclaims the top rankings after defeating Michigan last night, while previous number 2 Kansas falls three spots to number 5 after a loss to Oklahoma State. Oregon, Wichita State, and Colorado State all fell out of the top 25.  Oregon and Wichita State are both on tow game losing streaks.…

6:30. I’ve previously released my Super Bowl pick here, but I’ve also decided to release my forecast for the box score of the game and some visualizations of the distributions of team scoring, totals, and margin of victory as a preview for what I’m going to try to do in the 2013 season. So, here…

Originally posted on Rmazing: I have been working with R for some time now, but once in a while, basic functions catch my eye that I was not aware of… For some project I wanted to transform a correlation matrix into a covariance matrix. Now, since cor2cov does not exist, I thought about “reversing” the…