Stats in the Wild

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  • Yates and significance tests

    I was reading the newest issue of Significance Magazine last night, and I came across this quote in a letter that someone had written to the magazine:

    The emphasis given to formal tests of significance throughout [R.A. Fisher’s] Statistical Methods…has caused scientific research workers to pay undue attention to the results of the tests of significance they perform on their data, particularly data derived from experiments, and too little to the estimates of the magnitude of the effects they are investigating.” … “The emphasis on tests of significance and the consideration of the results of each experiment in isolation, have had the unfortunate consequence that scientific workers have often regarded the execution of a test of significance on an experiment as the ultimate objective. (Yates 1951)

    I feel like this is extremely relevant today where it seems that the only thing anyone ever cares about in studies is the p-value and whether or not it is less than the mythical 0.05 cut-off.  But what strikes me most about this quote is that it was written sixty years ago in 1951.

    Cheers.

  • An arbitrary ranking of NCAA college basketball teams – 12/11/2011

    Rankings as of noon on 12/11/2011 .

     Team Rank Change Record AP (12/12/11)
    Indiana 1 0 9-0 18
    Illinois 2 0 10-0 19
    Syracuse 3 0 10-0 1
    Minnesota 4 0 10-1
    Marquette 5 0 9-0 11
    Northwestern 6 0 7-1  40
    Ohio State 7 0 8-1 2
    Missouri 8 0 9-0 10
    Duke 9 0 9-1 7
    Louisville 10 0 9-0 4
    Baylor 11 0 7-0 6
    Northern Iowa 12 0 9-1 35
    Purdue 13 0 9-2
    Michigan State 14 0 8-2 21
    Wisconsin 15 0 8-2 14
    Pittsburgh 16 0 9-1 15
    Seton Hall 17 0 8-1
    Kansas 18 0 7-2 12
    Xavier 19 0 8-0 8
    San Diego State 20 0 9-2 28
    Connecticut 21 0 8-1 9
    Oklahoma 22 0 7-1
    Ole Miss 23 0 8-1
    Michigan 24 0 7-2 20
    Saint Louis 25 0 9-1 32

    BCS: My offer still stands…….if you want to contact me you can send me a tweet @StatsInTheWild.

    Cheers.

  • One More Arbitrary NCAA Football Ranking Scheme for the BCS – 12/4/2011

    Rankings as of 12/04/2011.  Previous weeks rankings here.

    The BCS explained:  It used to be that a national champion in college football was determined solely by human polls.  However, human polls are suspect because you are asking each voter to process the results of hundreds of college football games from teams all across the country and form a well thought out, reasoned ranking of the top 25 teams, which is clearly impossible; It’s too much data for a human to handle.  That’s why the BCS introduced the computer rankings which could, without personal bias, crunch the numbers and produce a ranking taking all games into account equally.  The computer rankings, on the average, do a very reasonable job of ranking the teams.   Ultimately, however, the non-human polls, a computational exercise in futility, are simply ignored, as they are overwhelmed by the human polls, and the BCS gets what it wants while it hides behind the computer polls to offer a whiff of legitimacy to the absolute garbage it spews out.

    BCS Bowl Team

    ACC Big East Big Ten Big 12 Pac 12 SEC Other

     Team Rank Change Record BCS Rank
    LSU 1 – 13-0 1
    Oklahoma State 2 – 11-1 3
    Kansas State 3 ↑↑ 10-2 8
    Alabama 4 ↑ 11-1 2 
    Oklahoma 5 ↓↓ 9-3 14 
    Baylor 6 ↑ 9-3 12
    Stanford 7 ↓ 11-1 4
    Oregon 8 ↑↑↑ 11-2 5
    Arkansas 9 ↓ 10-2 6
    South Carolina 10 ↓ 10-2 9
    USC 11 ↓ 10-2
    Georgia 12 – 10-3 16
    Virginia Tech 13 – 11-2 11
    Boise State 14 ↑↑↑ 11-1 7
    Michigan 15 ↑ 10-2 13
    Wisconsin 16 ↑↑ 11-2 10
    Texas 17 ↓↓↓ 7-5 24
    Clemson 18 ↑↑↑↑ 10-3 15
    Nebraska 19 ↓ 9-3 20
    Houston 20 ↓↓↓↓↓ 12-1 19
    Missouri 21 – 7-5
    TCU 22 ↑↑↑↑↑ 10-2 18
    Michigan State 23 ↓↓↓ 10-3 17
    Penn State 24 ↑ 9-3 22
    Texas A&M 25 ↓ 6-6

    And finally, representing the Big East/Big Least: West Virginia

    BCS: My offer still stands…….if you want to contact me you can send me a tweet @StatsInTheWild.

    Cheers.

  • One More Arbitrary NCAA Football Ranking Scheme for the BCS – 11/27/2011

    Rankings as of 11/27/2011.  Previous weeks rankings here.

    Some people were not thrilled about my rankings last week when I still had Oklahoma State ranked number 1.  For example, one guy critically criticized me by saying: “I’m impressed! You spell very well and your paragraph structure is spot in. That us amazing since it is apparent that you are fucking retarded.”  He will be happy to know that I now have LSU ranked number 1.

     Team Rank Change Record BCS Rank
    LSU 1 1 12-0 1
    Oklahoma State 2 -1 10-1
    Oklahoma 3 1 9-2
    Alabama 4 1 11-1
    Kansas State 5 -2 9-2
    Stanford 6 3 11-1
    Baylor 7 0 8-3
    Arkansas 8 -2 10-2
    South Carolina 9 1 10-2
    USC 10 2 10-2
    Oregon 11 0 10-2
    Georgia 12 2 10-2
    Virginia Tech 13 -5 11-1
    Texas 14 -1 7-4
    Houston 15 0 12-0
    Michigan 16 2 10-2
    Boise State 17 4 10-1
    Nebraska 18 5 9-3
    Wisconsin 19 10-2
    Michigan State 20 4 10-2
    Missouri 21 1 7-5
    Clemson 22 -6 9-3
    Iowa State 23 -6 6-5
    Texas A&M 24 -4 6-6
    Penn State 25 -6 9-3

    BCS: My offer still stands…….if you want to contact me you can send me a tweet @StatsInTheWild.

    Cheers.

  • NFL Rankings After Week 11

     

     Team Rank – After Week 11
    Green Bay  1
    New England 2
    Pittsburgh 3
    Baltimore 4
     Atlanta 5
     NY Jets 6
     Chicago  7
    New Orleans 8
    Tampa Bay 9
    NY Giants 10
    Philadelphia  11
    Detroit 12
    San Diego 13
    San Francisco 14
    Kansas City 15
    Oakland 16
    Cincinnati 17
    Tennessee 18
    Buffalo 19
    Dallas 20
    Houston 21
    Seattle 22
    Miami 23
    Jacksonville 24
    Minnesota 25
    Indianapolis 26
    Cleveland 27
    Washington 28
    Denver 29
    St. Louis  30
    Arizona  31
    Carolina  32

    Cheers.

  • NFL Playoff Projections After Week 11

    Seed AFC NFC
    1 Pittsburgh Green Bay
    2 New England San Francisco
    3 Houston New Orleans
    4 Oakland NY Giants
    5 Cincinnati Chicago
     6 Baltimore Dallas

    Cheers.

  • Defending my rankings

    Ok.  So I’m not sure I can defend my rankings, but I am going to try.  Even after losing to Iowa State, I still have Oklahoma State ranked number 1.  Let me try to explain what I think it going on.

    The Big 12 won a lot of their non-conference games at the beginning of the season, so I’ve had them ranked as the best conference for most of the way.  What this means is that since most of the teams are ranked so high in the Big 12, that a loss to one of those really good teams doesn’t hurt that much

    Ok State won it’s first three games easily over Louisiana-Lafayette, Arizona, and Tulsa.  Then they had to play 9 straight conference games in the toughest conference in the country.  Their only real weak game in conference play is Kansas.  They’ve beat Texas A&M, Texas, Kansas State, Missouri, Texas Tech, and Baylor before falling to Iowa State.  That’s impressive.  According to my rankings, all 6 of these teams are top 25.  And their one loss is to a team that I had ranked at 22 before they beat Ok State (I have Iowa State at 17 now).  They also beat Tulsa, who I have ranked 29th.

    LSU’s conference wins are against Mississippi, Mississippi State, Kentucky, Tennessee, Florida, Auburn, and Alabama.  (Georgia and South Carolina are noticeably absent from LSU’s schedule.)  The first 6 teams have a combined record of 29-38.  Then they have that big win over Alabama.

    Their non-conference games were against Oregon, West Virginia, Northwestern State, and Western Kentucky.  The Oregon win is impressive, but the other three games are jokes.  West Virginia is currently third in the Big “We still really get an automatic BCS berth?” East, and LSU shouldn’t even be allowed to schedule games against Northwestern State and Western Kentucky.  As I see it, LSU has three wins over top 25 teams (Alabama, Oregon, and Auburn).

    In review, I have Ok State at 6-1 against top 25 teams and LSU at 3-0.  My ranking system rewards teams for playing tough games and Oklahoma State has had one of the toughest schedules in the country this season week in and week out, while LSU the occasional tough opponent.  From top to bottom the Big 12 is much deeper than the SEC.

    So that’s my attempt at a defense.  I guess I’ll have to wait until the bowl game results to see if I am right.

    Cheers.

  • One More Arbitrary NCAA Football Ranking Scheme for the BCS – 11/20/2011

    Rankings as of 11/20/2011.  Previous weeks rankings here.

    (I’ve made a few small corrections from my original post; I found a mistake in the data.  For instance, Michigan State is now in the top 25 at number 24.)

    Ok.  I know.  This isn’t going to look good, but…….I still have Oklahoma State ranked 1 even after their loss to Iowa State.  (A defense of my rankings) They nearly survived the Big 12 gauntlet undefeated, which would have been a most impressive feat.  I’m not sure I can defend this, but since none of the BCS rankings have to defend their methodology then neither should I.

    Big movers this week include Baylor, Virginia Tech, and Stanford who are all up 4 spots to 7, 8, and 9, respectively.  The biggest move up this week is Iowa State, who jumps 5 spots to 17.

    Clemson falls 8 spots after its loss to North Carolina State and they end up 16. Likewise, Nebraska falls 7 spots to number 23 after losing to Michigan.

    Cheers.

     Team Rank Change Record BCS Rank
    Oklahoma State 1 0 10-1 4
    LSU 2 0 11-0 1
    Kansas State 3 1 9-2 11
    Oklahoma 4 -1 8-2 9
    Alabama 5 0 10-1 2
    Arkansas 6 0 10-1 3
    Baylor 7 4 7-3 18
    Virginia Tech 8 4 10-1 5
    Stanford 9 4 10-1 6
    South Carolina 10 -1 9-2 12
    Oregon 11 -4 9-2 10
    USC 12 2 9-2 NR
    Texas 13 -3 6-4 25
    Georgia 14 1 9-2 13
    Houston 15 2 11-0 8
    Clemson 16 -8 9-2 17
    Iowa State 17 5 6-4 NR
    Michigan 18 0 9-2 15
    Penn State 19 0 9-2 19
    Texas A&M 20 0 6-5 NR
    Boise State 21 2 9-1 7
    Missouri 22 2 6-5 NR
    Nebraska 23 -7 8-3 21
    Michigan State 24 1 9-2 14
    Auburn 25 -4 7-4 24

    BCS: My offer still stands…….if you want to contact me you can send me a tweet @StatsInTheWild.

    Cheers.

  • One More Arbitrary NCAA Football Ranking Scheme for the BCS – 11/13/2011

    Rankings as of 11/13/2011.  Previous weeks rankings here.

    No changes at the top.  I’ve still got Oklahoma State number 1, as I have all season.  LSU comes in at number 2 and Oklahoma at number 3.  Texas falls 4 spots after failing to score a touchdown in their loss to Missouri.  Oregon jumps to 7 after it’s victory over previously undefeated Stanford, who falls to 13.

    The two biggest movers upward were Nebraska and Michigan.  Nebraska defeated Penn State to climb 8 spots to 16 and Michigan beat a rapidly fading Illinois team to climb 7 spots to 18.

    Texas A&M and Auburn both fell 6 spots to 20 and 21, respectively.  Texas A&M lost in 4 OT to Kansas State while Auburn fell to Georgia.  Missouri and Michigan State squeak their way into the top 25 at 24 and 25, respectively, as Texas Tech and Georgia Tech drop out.

    By conference, I have 8 Big 12 teams in the top 25 and 6 SEC teams.  The Big 10 has 4 teams, the Pac 12 gets 3, and the ACC has 2.  Mountain West and Conference USA have one team each.

     Team Rank Change Record BCS Rank
    Oklahoma State 1 0 10-0 2
    LSU 2 0 10-0 1
    Oklahoma 3 0 8-1 5
    Kansas State 4 1 8-2 13
    Alabama 5 -1 9-1 3
    Arkansas 6 1 9-1 6
    Oregon 7 2 9-1 4
    Clemson 8 2 9-1 7
    South Carolina 9 2 8-2 12
    Texas 10 -4 6-3 23
    Baylor 11 2 6-3 22
    Virginia Tech 12 0 9-1 8
    Stanford 13 -5 9-1 9
    USC 14 4 8-2 NR
    Georgia 15 2 8-2 14
    Nebraska 16 8 8-2 16
    Houston 17 2 10-0 11
    Michigan 18 7 8-2 18
    Penn State 19 -3 8-2 21
    Texas A&M 20 -6 6-3 NR
    Auburn 21 -6 6-4 24
    Iowa State 22 -1 5-4 NR
    Boise State 23 -3 8-1 10
    Missouri 24 2 5-5 NR
    Michigan State 25 3 8-2 15

    BCS: My offer still stands…….if you want to contact me you can send me a tweet @StatsInTheWild.

    Cheers.

  • NFL Playoff Projections After Week 9

    New Projected 1 seed in the AFC with Baltimore and New England drops to 2 seed. The AFC North is scheduled to get 3 teams into the playoffs.  On the NFC side Green Bay is still projected to be the 1 seed with San Francisco the 2.  And, like the AFC, the NFC North is scheduled to get three teams into the playoffs.  Has that ever happened before?  Two divisons getting 3 teams into the playoffs?  I have to guess no.

    Seed AFC NFC
    1 Baltimore Green Bay
    2 New England San Francisco
    3 Houston NY Giants
    4 San Diego Atlanta
    5 Pittsburgh Detroit
     6 Cincinnati Chicago

    Cheers.