Stats in the Wild

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  • Wisconsin Badgers

    Let’s get something straight right now.  Wisconsin is not a top 25 football team.  4 out of the 6 BCS computer polls have them outside of the top 25 and the other two polls have them at 24 and 16.  The clowns (meant with the utmost respect) who vote in the human polls have the Badgers ranked at 14 in both polls.  Let’s take a look at why the computers are right:

    Wisconsin is 7-2 overall and 3-2 in the perennially (wildly) over-rated Big 10 (the conference with the worst division names in all of sports).  Wisconsin won its first 6 games over UNLV, Oregon State, Northern Illinois, South Dakota, Nebraska, and Indiana.  While Nebraska is a very impressive win, the 6 other teams they have beaten are currently 2-6 (MWC), 2-7 (PAC12), 6-3 (MAC), 5-4 (FCS-Great West), 1-9 (Big 10), 4-5 (Big 10).  I’m not impressed by any of those wins.  The three other games Wisconsin has played (Nebraska (7-2) , Michigan State (7-2), and Ohio State(6-3)), they have 1 win.  The W-L record of the their 7 victories is 27-36.  And if you remove Nebraska (which, as mentioned before, is actually an impressive win) there W-L for opponents in victories is 20-34.

    Jeff Sagarin has Wisconsin’s strength of schedule ranked at 87.  The only BCS top 25 teams with weaker schedules that that are Houston (112), who plays in Conference USA, and Cincinnati (95) who plays in the Big “We still seriously get an automatic BCS bid?” East, (which sent a 4 loss UConn team to the Fiesta Bowl last year).  (“Most of the attention before the game focused on Oklahoma’s poor performance in past BCS games as well as Connecticut’s difficulties in selling tickets“.)

    So, please Harris poll voters, I implore you to stop voting for teams like Wisconsin who don’t deserve to be in the top 25.  (And while you’re at it, stop voting for Cincinnati, too.)

    Cheers.

  • 1 vs 2

    Alabama hosted LSU yesterday in what was billed as number 1 versus number 2.  This is a great way to market a football game, but it completely ignores reality.  6 out of 7 BCS computer polls, which the BCS itself has selected to rank college football teams, had Oklahoma State ranked number 1 heading into the LSU-Alabama game, and the lone dissenting system had Oklahoma State ranked number 2.  That means there were 0 computer rankings that had LSU-Alabama as a 1 vs 2 game.  I guess it’s just harder to market a 2 vs 3 game.

    Cheers.

  • One More Arbitrary NCAA Football Ranking Scheme for the BCS – 11/6/2011

    Rankings as of 11/6/2011.  Previous weeks rankings are here.

    What a game last night between LSU and Alabama!  #FieldGoalsAreAwesome

    I’ll update the BCS ranks when the new ones come out.

     Team Rank Change Record BCS Rank
    Oklahoma State 1 0 9-0
    LSU 2 1 9-0
    Oklahoma 3 2 8-1
    Alabama 4 0 8-1
    Kansas St. 5 -3 7-2
    Texas 6 6 6-2
    Arkansas 7 3 8-1
    Stanford 8 0 9-0
    Oregon 9 4 8-1
    Clemson 10 -4 8-1
    South Carolina 11 -2 7-2
    Virginia Tech 12 2 8-1
    Baylor 13 3 5-3
    Texas A&M 14 -7 5-4
    Auburn 15 4 6-3
    Penn State 16 1 8-1
    Georgia 17 7 7-2
    USC 18 -3 7-2
    Houston 19 6 9-0
    Boise State 20 1 8-0
    Iowa State 21 11 5-4
    Georgia Tech 22 0 7-2
    Texas Tech 23 -12 5-4
    Nebraska 24 -6 7-2
    Michigan 25 -5 7-2

    BCS: My offer still stands…….if you want to contact me you can send me a tweet @StatsInTheWild.

    Cheers.

  • NFL Rankings After Week 8

    SITW NFL Rankings after week 8.  (Last weeks NFL rankings) (And check out my NCAA Football Rankings)

    Good news.  We have heat and electricity back after 5 nights without it.  I’ve never before in my life taken a shower where I could see my breath, but that happened twice this week.  I assume that’s approximately what it’s like to play a football game in Wisconsin in January.  Quite the experience.

    Anyway, no changes in the top 7.  Tampa Bay and New Orleans swap spots for the 435th time this season.  The biggest moves up were Minnesota and Houston who both jumped 4 spots to 22 and 24, respectively.  The biggest drop this week was Indianapolis who continues it’s downward spiral to the bottom that will inevitable end up with them ranked 32nd (and Mr. Luck).

    Playoff projections to follow….

    Cheers.

    Rank – After Week 8  Change
     New England  1 0
     Green Bay 2 0
    Pittsburgh 3 0
    Baltimore 4 0
     Atlanta 5 0
     NY Jets 6 0
     Chicago  7 0
    Tampa Bay 8 1
    New Orleans 9 -1
    NY Giants 10 0
    Detroit  11 0
    Philadelphia 12 0
    Buffalo 13 1
    Kansas City 14 1
    San Diego 15 -2
    Cincinnati 16 0
    San Francisco 17 1
    Oakland 18 1
    Cleveland 19 -2
    Tennessee 20 2
    Miami 21 -1
    Minnesota 22 4
    Dallas 23 -2
    Houston 24 4
    Washington 25 -1
    Indianapolis 26 -3
    Seattle 27 -2
    Jacksonville 28 -1
    St. Louis 29 0
    Denver  30 0
    Carolina  31 0
    Arizona  32 0

     

  • Statisticians are special because…..

    From Andrew Gelman’s Blog: “P.S. Statisticians are special because, deep in our bones, we know about uncertainty. Economists know about incentives, physicists know about reality, movers can fit big things in the elevator on the first try, evolutionary psychologists know how to get their names in the newspaper, lawyers know you should never never never talk to the cops, and statisticians know about uncertainty. Of that, I’m sure.”

  • One More Arbitrary NCAA Football Ranking Scheme for the BCS – 11/1/2011

    Rankings as of 11/1/2011.  The previous week’s rankings are here.

    I apologize for not getting these rankings out until today (Tuesday), but we’re likely without power until Friday or Saturday.  I’m currently in the Western New England College University Law School library, which has power and heat.  Anyway……

    There are 5 teams in the SITW top 25 that are not in the BCS top 25 (SITW Ranking):  Texas A&M (15), Texas Tech (18), USC (19), Baylor (21), Missouri (25).

    Likewise, the five teams in the BCS top 25 that are not in the SITW top 25 are: Arizona State (26), Wisconsin (30), Michigan State (31), West Virginia (32), and Southern Miss (39).

    Based on the disparity between the SITW rankings and the BCS rankings, the most over-rated top 25 BCS team is Boise State, followed by Michigan State and Southern Miss.  The most under-rated team is Texas, followed by Kansas State, Auburn, Oklahoma, and Clemson.

     Team Rank Change Record BCS Rank
    Oklahoma State 1 0 8-0 3
    Oklahoma 2 3 7-1 8
    LSU 3 0 8-0 1
    Alabama 4 0 8-0 2
    Kansas State 5 -3 7-1 9
    Stanford 6 2 8-0 5
    Clemson 7 -1 8-1 16
    South Carolina 8 1 7-1 6
    Arkansas 9 1 7-1 13
    Virginia Tech 10 4 8-1 10
    Texas 11 1 5-2 20
    Oregon 12 1 7-1 24
    Nebraska 13 5 7-1 7
    Penn State 14 3 8-1 12
    Texas A&M 15 -8 5-3 NR
    Michigan 16 4 7-1 NR
    Auburn 17 2 6-3 19
    Texas Tech 18 -7 5-3 14
    USC 19 -4 6-2 23
    Georgia Tech 20 2 7-2 18
    Baylor 21 -5 4-3 4
    Boise State 22 -1 7-0 NR
    Georgia 23 1 6-2 15
    Houston 24 1 8-0 22
    Missouri 25 5 4-4 17

    BCS: My offer still stands…….if you want to contact me you can send me a tweet @StatsInTheWild.

    Cheers.

  • NFL Rankings After Week 7

    SITW NFL Rankings after week 7.  (Last weeks NFL rankings) (And check out my NCAA Football Rankings)

    Well, my survivor season is over thanks to Baltimore’s gutless loss to the Jaguars, and my arch tennis/golf rival was crowned champion.

    Anyway, the biggest mover up the rankings this week was Dallas up five spots after its win over winless St. Louis.  (How can this happen?  Well, my rating are like the BCS, so I don’t have to tell you.  If there were transparency, someone might question my method.)  The biggest fall this week was Oakland falling 4 spots after losing to Kansas City.

    And SITW would like to welcome Arizona to the NFL cellar.  Arizona is now 6-16 in the last two seasons.  Now 6-16 is not very good, but it is all time bad when you consider they play in the NFC West, which sent a 7-9 team to the playoffs as division champ.  This is a team that went to the super bowl in 2009.  Things fall apart quickly in the NFL.  (See 2011, Colts, Indianapolis)

    Rank – After Week 7  Change
     New England  1 0
     Green Bay 2 0
    Pittsburgh 3 0
    Baltimore 4 0
     Atlanta 5 0
     NY Jets 6 0
     Chicago 7 0
    New Orleans 8 1
    Tampa Bay 9 -1
    NY Giants 10 0
    Detroit  11 0
    Philadelphia 12 0
    San Diego 13 0
    Buffalo 14 0
    Kansas City 15 1
    Cincinnati 16 3
    Cleveland 17 3
    San Francisco 18 0
    Oakland 19 -4
    Miami 20 -3
    Dallas 21 5
    Tennessee 22 -1
    Indianapolis 23 1
    Washington 24 -2
    Seattle 25 -2
    Minnesota 26 -1
    Jacksonville 27 0
    Houston 28 0
    St. Louis 29 0
    Denver  30 1
    Carolina  31 1
    Arizona  32 -2

    Cheers.

  • One More Arbitrary NCAA Football Ranking Scheme for the BCS – 10/23/2011

    Rankings as of 10/23/2011.  Previous weeks rankings here.

    There are 3 teams ranked in the BCS top 25 who aren’t in my top 25.  They are Michigan State, Arizona State, and West Virginia.

    There are three teams in my top 25 who aren’t in the BCS top 25.  They are USC, Baylor, and Georgia Tech.

     Team Rank Change Record BCS Rank
    Oklahoma State 1 0 7-0 3
    Kansas State 2 1 7-0 8
    LSU 3 1 8-0 1
    Alabama 4 1 8-0 2
    Oklahoma 5 -3 6-1 9
    Clemson 6 0 8-0 5
    Texas A&M 7 1 5-2 16
    Stanford 8 2 7-0 6
    South Carolina 9 0 6-1 13
    Arkansas 10 2 6-1 10
    Texas Tech 11 4 5-2 20
    Texas 12 -5 4-2 24
    Oregon 13 7 6-1 7
    Virginia Tech 14 2 7-1 12
    USC 15 4 6-1 NR
    Baylor 16 -5 4-2 NR
    Penn State 17 1 7-1 19
    Nebraska 18 4 6-1 14
    Auburn 19 -2 5-3 23
    Michigan 20 1 6-1 18
    Boise State 21 4 7-0 4
    Georgia Tech 22 -9 6-2 NR
    Wisconsin 23 -9 6-1 15
    Georgia 24 4 5-2 22
    Houston 25 10 7-0 17

    BCS: My offer still stands…….if you want to contact me you can send me a tweet @StatsInTheWild.

    Cheers.

  • 2011 NFL Chernoff Faces

    At the end of the 2010 NFL football season I did some Chernoff faces for the teams’ final statistics here.

    Here are similar Chernoff faces for the 2011 season through week 6. (And here are my rankings through week 6.)

    Offensive yardage affects the size and shape of the face and defensive yardage affect the size and shape of the hair. The number of wins a team has affects the size of the mouth and whether or not the mouth is smiling. The eyes represent penalties, the nose is defensive sacks, and the ears are defensive forced turnovers. The ideal face is found in the lower right corner of the graph.

    Two quick comments:
    -Oakland has a penalty problem.
    -Carolina seems out of place on the graph. The Carolina face is very similar to the New Orleans face; the difference appears to be the eyes (penalties) and the nose (sacks).

    Cheers.

  • NFL Playoff Projections After Week 6

    Last week’s rankings and playoff projections.

    The only change in the AFC is that Jets are projected to be back in and Buffalo is out after one week as the projected 6 seed.

    Green Bay is still the projected 1 seed as they have been since after week 1;  Detroit has been the projected 5 seed since after week 2.  San Francisco moves up to the 2 seed with their win over the Lions and the NFC South teams Tampa Bay and New Orleans swap as projected division winners for the fourth week in a row, with Tampa Bay projected at 3 and New Orleans projected at 6.  Washington falls out of the playoffs and the Giants are projected to get in as the 4 seed.

    Seed AFC NFC
    1 New England Green Bay
    2 Baltimore San Francisco
    3 San Diego Tampa Bay
    4 Tennessee NY Giants
    5 Pittsburgh Detroit
     6 NY Jets New Orleans

    Cheers.