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  • Week 7 QB performances reviewed via RIPPEN

    An explanation of RIPPEN

    RIPPEN rankings for week 7 performances:

    Player Team RIPPEN QB rating
    Rodgers, A. GB 43.235 106.9
    Brees, D. NO 36.220 129.0
    Gabbert, B. JAX 34.483 133.8
    Freeman, J. TB 25.252 124.7
    Schaub, M. HOU 22.707 102.2
    Griffin, III, R. WAS 21.789 133.7
    Romo, T. DAL 21.277 97.2
    Roethlisberger, B. PIT 20.522 91.3
    Manning, E. NYG 20.269 87.8
    Bradford, S. STL 19.503 112.0
    Fitzpatrick, R. BUF 19.106 97.1
    Brady, T. NE 17.217 87.4
    Sanchez, M. NYJ 16.431 92.7
    Luck, A. IND 16.258 79.3
    Skelton, J. ARI 13.082 83.2
    Smith, A. SF 12.449 56.6
    Wilson, R. SEA 7.166 87.3
    Palmer, C. OAK 6.411 69.8
    Henne, C. JAX 2.510 75.0
    Dalton, A. CIN 2.503 77.4
    Flacco, J BAL 1.790 59.4
    Ponder, C. MIN 0.705 68.9

    Season RIPPEN rankings through 7 weeks of games:

    Player Team RIPPEN QB rating
    Manning, P. DEN 28.886 105.0
    Rodgers, A. GB 26.970 109.6
    Griffen, III, R. WAS 26.915 101.8
    Newton, C. CAR 24.975 79.3
    Brady, T. NE 23.842 96.9
    Ryan. M. ATL 21.828 98.8
    Schaub, M. HOU 21.496 93.1
    Brees, D. NO 21.221 96.1
    Roethlisberger, B. PIT 21.141 98.6
    Freeman, J. TB 18.409 91.2
    Romo, T. DAL 18.197 84.6
    Manning, E. NYG 18.150 92.5
    Smith, A. SF 17.786 93.9
    Locker, J. TEN 17.197 90.2
    Bradford, S. STL 17.192 81.5
    Ponder, C. MIN 16.677 87.5
    Cutler, J. CHI 16.631 78.3
    Tannehill, R. MIA 16.344 76.5
    Dalton, A. CIN 15.387 87.7
    Rivers, P. SD 15.290 85.3
    Stafford, M. DET 15.259 78.4
    Vick, M. PHI 14.984 77.7
    Luck, A. IND 14.880 72.3
    Palmer, C. OAK 14.846 86.0
    Wilson, R. SEA 13.782 79.5
    Flacco, J. BAL 13.018 84.0
    Sanchez, M. NYJ 11.985 74.6
    Fitzpatrick, R. BUF 11.984 86.1
    Weeden, B. CLE 11.671 72.3
    Kolb, K. ARI 9.443 86.1
    Skelton, J. ARI 8.876 68.9
    Cassel, M. KC 8.209 66.2
    Gabbert, B. JAX 8.194 77.1
    Hasselbeck, M. TEN 7.748 78.2

    Cheers.

  • NFL Predictions – Week 8

    Overall Records for 2012

    SU: 73-45 (61.86%)

    ATS: 66-52 (55.93%)

    O/U: 65-50 (56.52%)

    Week 8 (10-4 SU, 9-5 ATS, 9-4 O/U)

    Week 7 (10-3 SU, 6-7 ATS, 6-7 O/U)

    Week 6 (6-8 SU, 7-7 ATS, 6-7 O/U)

    Week 5 (10-4 SU, 7-7 ATS, 7-7 O/U)

    Week 4 (10-5 SU, 10-5 ATS, 12-2 O/U)

    Week 3 (5-11 SU, 9-7 ATS, 9-7 O/U)

    Week 2 (11-5 SU, 9-7 ATS, 8-8 O/U)

    Week 1 (11-5 SU, 9-7 ATS, 8-8 O/U)

    Week 8

    Thursday @8:25pm

    Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Minnesota Vikings

    Prediction: Vikings win 25-22

    Pick: Buccaneers +6.5

    O/U: Over 42.5

    Sunday @1pm

    New England Patriots at St. Louis Rams (London)

    Prediction: Patriots win 32-17

    Pick: Patriots -7

    O/U: Over 47

    Indianapolis Colts at Tennessee Titans

    Prediction: Titans win 21-20

    Pick: Colts +3.5

    O/U: Under 46.5

    Jacksonville Jaguars at Green Bay Packers

    Prediction: Packers win 29-14

    Pick: Packers -13.5

    O/U: Off the Board

    San Diego Chargers at Cleveland Browns

    Prediction: Chargers win 27-19

    Pick: Chargers -3.5

    O/U: Over 44.5

    Atlanta Falcons at Philadelphia Eagles

    Prediction: Falcons win 27-25

    Pick: Falcons +2.5

    O/U: Over 46.5

    Seattle Seahawks at Detroit Lions

    Prediction: Lions win 28-21

    Pick:  Lions -2.5

    O/U: Over 43.5

    Miami Dolphins at New York Jets

    Prediction: Dolphins win 22-21

    Pick: Dolphins +2.5

    O/U: Over 40.5

    Carolina Panthers at Chicago Bears

    Prediction: Bears win 27-24

    Pick: Panthers +8

    O/U: Over 43

    Sunday @4:05pm

    Washington Redskins at Pittsburgh Steelers

    Prediction: Steelers win 24-21

    Pick: Redskins +5.5

    O/U: Under 47.5

    Sunday @4:25pm

    Oakland Raiders at Kansas City Chiefs

    Prediction: Raiders win 24-23

    Pick: Raiders +2

    O/U: Over 41

    Sunday @8:30pm

    New York Giants at Dallas Cowboys

    Prediction: Giants win 26-24

    Pick: Giants -1.5

    O/U: Over 47

    Sunday @8:30pm

    New Orleans Saints at Denver Broncos

    Prediction: Saints win 33-24

    Pick: Saints +6.5

    O/U: Over 54.5

    Monday @8:40pm

    San Francisco 49ers at Arizona Cardinals

    Prediction: 49ers win 24-20

    Pick: Cardinals +7.5

    O/U: Over 36.5

    Cheers.

  • NFL Rankings – 10/23/2012

    StatsInTheWild NFL rankings as of October 23, 2012 at 12:34pm.  SOS=strength of schedule

    Team Rank Change Record ESPN TeamRankings.com SOS Points Diff
    Chicago 1 – 5-1 5 1 8 +84
    Houston 2 ↑2 6-1 2 (tie) 3 17 +88
    San Francisco 3 ↓1 5-2 4 5 4 +65
    Green Bay 4 ↑6 4-3 7 4 6 +29
    Minnesota 5 ↑3 5-2 9 8 7 +36
    Atlanta 6 ↓3 6-0 1 2 26 +58
    NY Giants 7 ↓2 5-2 2 (tie) 6 22 +68
    New England 8 ↑1 4-3 8 7 12 +54
    Seattle 9 ↓2 4-3 11 10 5 +10
    Arizona 10 ↓4 4-3 14 20 2 +6
    St. Louis 11 ↑1 3-4 21 15 3 -11
    Baltimore 12 ↓1 5-2 6 11 24 +13
    Detroit 13 ↑1 2-4 19 12 1 -17
    Miami 14 ↑1 3-3 16 17 14 +3
    Denver 15 ↑1 3-3 12 9 30 +32
    Washington 16 ↓3 3-4 18 18 18 +1
    Dallas 17 ↑1 3-3 15 13 15 -20
    NY Jets 18 ↓1 3-4 24 14 11 -11
    Pittsburgh 19 ↑5 3-3 10 16 29 +8
    Philadelphia 20 – 3-3 13 22 19 -22
    Tampa Bay 21 ↓2 2-4 26 31 23 +12
    Indianapolis 22 ↑5 3-3 23 21 16 -41
    San Diego 23 – 3-3 17 23 32 +11
    New Orleans 24 ↑2 2-4 20 26 21 -6
    Buffalo 25 ↓2 3-4 27 24 13 -56
    Cincinnati 26 ↓5 3-4 22 27 27 -21
    Tennessee 27 ↑3 3-4 25 19 9 -89
    Carolina 28 ↓3 1-5 29 29 20 -38
    Jacksonville 29 ↓1 1-5 31 30 10 -76
    Cleveland 30 ↓1 1-6 30 28 25 -33
    Oakland 31 – 2-4 28 25 31 -58
    Kansas City 32 – 1-5 32 32 28 -79

    Best

    Best team in the league: Chicago

    Best undefeated team: Atlanta

    Best 5 win team: Chicago

    Best 4 win team: Green Bay

    Best 3 win team: St. Louis

    Best 2 win team: Detroit

    Best 1 win team: Carolina

    Worst

    Worst 5 win team: Baltimore

    Worst 4 win team: Arizona

    Worst 3 win team: Tennessee

    Worst 2 win team: Oakland

    Worst 1 win team: Kansas City

    Worst team in the league: Kansas City

    Most

    Most under-rated team: (#11) St. Louis (ESPN has them 21)

    Most over-rated team: (#19) Pittsburgh (ESPN has them 10)

    Cheers.

    ↓3

  • NCAA Football Rankings – 10/21/2012

     
     Rank Team Records
    1 KANSAS STATE 7-0
    2 ALABAMA 7-0
    3 OKLAHOMA 5-1
    4 OREGON 7-0
    5 FLORIDA 7-0
    6 TEXAS TECH 6-1
    7 NOTRE DAME 7-0
    8 OREGON STATE 6-0
    9 LSU 7-1
    10 MISS STATE 7-0
    11 TEXAS 5-2
    12 TEXAS A&M 5-2
    13 STANFORD 5-2
    14 USC 6-1
    15 OKLAHOMA STATE 4-2
    16 FLORIDA STATE 7-1
    17 OHIO STATE 8-0
    18 TCU 5-2
    19 SO CAROLINA 6-2
    20 ARIZONA 4-3
    21 IOWA STATE 4-3
    22 WEST VIRGINIA 5-2
    23 RUTGERS 7-0
    24 ARIZONA STATE 5-2
    25 GEORGIA 6-1
    26 WISCONSIN 6-2
    27 CLEMSON 6-1
    28 MICHIGAN 5-2
    29 PENN STATE 5-2
    30 LOUISVILLE 7-0
    31 BAYLOR 3-3
    32 UCLA 5-2
    33 OLE MISS 4-3
    34 LOUISIANA TECH 6-1
    35 NEBRASKA 5-2
    36 NORTHWESTERN 6-2
    37 ARKANSAS 3-4
    38 CINCINNATI 5-1
    39 UTAH STATE 6-2
    40 NEVADA 6-2
    41 CALIFORNIA 3-5
    42 BOISE STATE 6-1
    43 NORTH CAROLINA 5-3
    44 FRESNO STATE 5-3
    45 MICHIGAN STATE 4-4
    46 TOLEDO 7-1
    47 ULM 5-2
    48 TULSA 7-1
    49 NORTHERN ILL 7-1
    50 TENNESSEE 3-4
    51 IOWA 4-3
    52 DUKE 6-2
    53 BYU 4-4
    54 WASHINGTON 3-4
    55 MISSOURI 3-4
    56 WESTERN KY 5-2
    57 SAN JOSE ST 5-2
    58 OHIO U 7-0
    59 MIAMI-FLORIDA 4-4
    60 MARYLAND 4-3
    61 VIRGINIA TECH 4-4
    62 SYRACUSE 3-4
    63 NC STATE 5-2
    64 PITTSBURGH 3-4
    65 LOUISIANA 4-2
    66 PURDUE 3-4
    67 UCF 5-2
    68 KANSAS 1-6
    69 MIDDLE TENNESSEE 4-3
    70 SAN DIEGO ST 5-3
    71 VANDERBILT 3-4
    72 WAKE FOREST 4-3
    73 KENT STATE 6-1
    74 MINNESOTA 4-3
    75 GEORGIA TECH 3-4
    76 UTAH 2-5
    77 KENTUCKY 1-7
    78 NEW MEXICO 4-4
    79 TEMPLE 3-3
    80 TROY 4-3
    81 BALL STATE 5-3
    82 AUBURN 1-6
    83 TEXAS STATE 3-3
    84 NAVY 4-3
    85 WASHINGTON ST 2-5
    86 SMU 3-4
    87 ARKANSAS STATE 4-3
    88 AIR FORCE 4-3
    89 INDIANA 2-5
    90 SO FLORIDA 2-5
    91 BOWLING GREEN 5-3
    92 NORTH TEXAS 3-4
    93 EAST CAROLINA 5-3
    94 ILLINOIS 2-5
    95 HOUSTON 3-4
    96 CONNECTICUT 3-5
    97 MARSHALL 3-4
    98 WYOMING 1-6
    99 COLORADO 1-6
    100 VIRGINIA 2-6
    101 BOSTON COLLEGE 1-6
    102 TX-SAN ANTONIO 5-2
    103 UNLV 1-7
    104 TEXAS-EL PASO 2-6
    105 WESTERN MICH 3-5
    106 RICE 2-6
    107 MIAMI-OHIO 3-4
    108 SOUTH ALABAMA 2-5
    109 FLA ATLANTIC 1-6
    110 EASTERN MICH 1-6
    111 COLORADO STATE 1-6
    112 ARMY 1-6
    113 FIU 1-7
    114 IDAHO 1-7
    115 HAWAII 1-5
    116 TULANE 1-6
    117 UAB 1-6
    118 CENTRAL MICH 2-5
    119 BUFFALO 1-6
    120 MEMPHIS 1-6
    121 SOUTHERN MISS 0-7
    122 NEW MEXICO ST 1-6
    123 AKRON 1-7
    124 MASSACHUSETTS 0-7

     

  • NFL Predictions – Week 7

    Overall Records for 2012

    SU: 64-40

    ATS: 57-47

    O/U: 56-46

    Week 7 (11-2 SU, 6-7 ATS, 6-7 O/U)

    Week 6 (6-8 SU, 7-7 ATS, 6-7 O/U)

    Week 5 (10-4 SU, 7-7 ATS, 7-7 O/U)

    Week 4 (10-5 SU, 10-5 ATS, 12-2 O/U)

    Week 3 (5-11 SU, 9-7 ATS, 9-7 O/U)

    Week 2 (11-5 SU, 9-7 ATS, 8-8 O/U)

    Week 1 (11-5 SU, 9-7 ATS, 8-8 O/U)

    Week 7

    Thursday @8:05pm

    Seattle Seahawks at San Francisco 49ers

    Prediction: 49ers win 28-20

    Pick: 49ers -7.5

    O/U: Over 37.5

    Sunday @1pm

    Tennessee Titans at Buffalo Bills

    Prediction: Bills win 23-22

    Pick: Titans +3.5

    O/U: Under 45.5

    Arizona Cardinals at Minnesota Vikings

    Prediction: Vikings win 25-23

    Pick: Cardinals +5.5

    O/U:  Over 40.5

    Cleveland Browns at Indianapolis Colts

    Prediction: Colts win 23-17

    Pick: Colts -3

    O/U: Under 44.5

    Baltimore Ravens at Houston Texans

    Prediction: Ravens win 26-24

    Pick: Ravens +6.5

    O/U: Over 48

    Green Bay Packers at St. Louis Rams

    Prediction: Packers win 30-17

    Pick: Packers -5.5

    O/U: Over 45

    Dallas Cowboys at Carolina Panthers

    Prediction: Cowboys win 25-21

    Pick:  Cowboys -2

    O/U: Over 45.5

    Washington Redskins at New York Giants

    Prediction: Giants win 28-22

    Pick: Redskins +6.5

    O/U: Over 49.5

    New Orleans Saints at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

    Prediction: Saints win 32-20

    Pick: Saints -2.5

    O/U: Over 49

    Sunday @4:25pm

    New York Jets at New England Patriots

    Prediction: Patriots win 35-20

    Pick: Patriots -10.5

    O/U: Over 47

    Sunday @4:25pm

    Jacksonville Jaguars at Oakland Raiders

    Prediction: Raiders win 21-16

    Pick: Raiders -4

    O/U: Under 43

    Sunday @8:30pm

    Pittsburgh Steelers at Cincinnati Bengals

    Prediction: Steelers win 24-23

    Pick: Bengals +2.5

    O/U: Over 46

    Monday @8:40pm

    Detroit Lions at Chicago Bears

    Prediction: Bears win 28-26

    Pick: Lions +5.5

    O/U: Over 47.5

    Cheers.

  • Week 6 QB performances reviewed via RIPPEN

    An explanation of RIPPEN

    RIPPEN rankings for week 6 performances:

    Player Team RIPPEN QB rating
    Flacco, J. BAL 38.201 106.9
    Manning, P. DEN 34.475 129.0
    Rodgers, A. GB 33.463 133.8
    Freeman, J. TB 33.324 124.7
    Palmer, C. OAK 33.153 102.2
    Wilson, R. SEA 30.824 133.7
    Griffin, III, R. WAS 26.015 97.2
    Bradford, S. STL 25.218 91.3
    Roethlisberger, B. PIT 24.023 87.8
    Tannehill, R. MIA 21.243 112.0
    Romo, T. DAL 20.028 97.1
    Manning, E. NYG 20.927 87.4
    Weeden, B. CLE 18.161 92.7
    Brady, T. NE 16.272 79.3
    Ponder, C. MIN 15.649 83.2
    Schaub, M. HOU 14.815 56.6
    Dalton, A. CIN 14.458 87.3
    Stafford, M. DET 13.478 69.8
    Vick, M. PHI 13.471 77.4
    Ryan, M. ATL 11.480 59.4
    Fitzpatrick, R. BUF 11.166 68.9
    Hasselbeck, M. TEN 10.428 75.0
    Luck, A. IND 9.097 51.3
    Sanchez, M. NYJ 9.089 109.0
    Smith, A. SF 9.038 43.1
    Rivers, P. SD 5.959 54.2
    Kolb, K. ARI 5.757 64.3
    Quinn, B. KC 5.571 48.1
    Skelton, J. ARI 3.812 6.2

    Season RIPPEN rankings through six weeks of games:

    Player Team RIPPEN QB rating
    Manning, P. DEN 27.304 105.0
    Griffin, III, R. WAS 27.279 100.5
    Brady, T. NE 26.905 97.2
    Newton, C. CAR 25.630 80.9
    Rodgers, A. GB 24.263 105.4
    Schaub, M. HOU 23.978 91.6
    Ryan, M. ATL 23.689 98.8
    Roethlisberger, B. PIT 20.393 99.9
    Rivers, P. SD 19.697 85.3
    Flacco, J. BAL 19.654 92.0
    Smith, A. SF 19.131 96.6
    Ponder, C. MIN 19.091 92.4
    Cutler, J. CHI 18.720 78.7
    Brees, D. NO 18.243 90.7
    Manning, E. NYG 17.664 94.9
    Palmer, C. OAK 16.843 88.7
    Dalton, A. CIN 16.770 91.7
    Romo, T. DAL 16.380 82.1
    Locker, J. TEN 16.245 90.2
    Stafford, M. DET 15.928 79.2
    Freeman, J. TB 15.780 84.2
    Tannehill, R. MIA 14.544 76.5
    Bradford, S. STL 13.065 81.3
    Vick, M. PHI 12.533 77.7
    Wilson, R. SEA 11.917 85.6
    Luck, A. IND 10.782 72.0
    Sanchez, M. NYJ 10.761 70.9
    Fitzpatrick, R. BUF 10.465 81.5
    Weeden, B. CLE 10.417 68.1
    Kolb, K. ARI 8.357 86.1
    Cassel, M. KC 6.678 66.2
    Hasselbeck, M. TEN 6.678 74.1
    Gabbert, B. JAX 6.678 73.3

    Cheers.

  • NFL Rankings – 10/17/2012

    StatsInTheWild NFL rankings as of October 17, 2012 at 12:34pm.  SOS=strength of schedule

    Team Rank Change Record ESPN TeamRankings.com SOS Points Diff
    Chicago 1 ↑1 4-1 6 1 8 +78
    San Francisco 2 ↓1 4-2 5 6 3 +58
    Atlanta 3 ↑4 6-0 1 2 25 +58
    Houston 4 ↓1 5-1 2 4 21 +58
    NY Giants 5 ↑7 4-2 3 3 17 +64
    Arizona 6 ↓1 4-2 11 12 1 +13
    Seattle 7 ↑2 4-2 9 5 5 +17
    Minnesota 8 ↓4 4-2 10 11 7 +29
    New England 9 ↓3 3-3 7 8 10 +51
    Green Bay 10 ↑1 3-3 8 7 6 +19
    Baltimore 11 ↓1 5-1 4 9 26 +43
    St. Louis 12 ↓4 3-3 20 10 2 -1
    Washington 13 ↑9 3-3 15 17 13 +5
    Detroit 14 ↓1 2-3 19 19 4 -11
    Miami 15 ↓1 3-3 17 14 16 +3
    Denver 16 ↑2 3-3 12 13 31 +32
    NY Jets 17 – 3-3 23 18 12 -8
    Dallas 18 ↓2 2-3 18 15 9 -25
    Tampa Bay 19 ↑6 2-3 22 24 23 +19
    Philadelphia 20 – 3-3 13 20 11 -22
    Cincinnati 21 ↓2 3-3 21 21 28 -14
    Buffalo 22 ↑2 3-3 25 16 15 -55
    San Diego 23 ↓2 3-3 16 27 32 +11
    Pittsburgh 24 ↓1 2-3 14 23 27 +1
    Carolina 25 ↑3 1-4 28 28 19 -33
    New Orleans 26 ↑1 1-4 24 31 20 -13
    Indianapolis 27 ↓12 2-3 26 22 22 -45
    Jacksonville 28 ↓2 1-4 31 29 18 -73
    Cleveland 29 ↑3 1-5 30 26 24 -29
    Tennessee 30 ↓1 2-4 27 25 14 -90
    Oakland 31 ↓1 1-4 29 30 30 -61
    Kansas City 32 ↓1 1-5 32 32 29 -79

    Best

    Best undefeated team: Atlanta

    Best 5 win team: Houston

    Best 4 win team: Chicago

    Best 3 win team: New England

    Best 2 win team: Detroit

    Best 1 win team: Carolina

    Worst

    Worst 5 win team: Baltimore

    Worst 4 win team: Minnesota

    Worst 3 win team: San Diego

    Worst 2 win team: Tennessee

    Worst 1 win team: Kansas City

    Worst team in the league: Kansas City

    Most

    Most under-rated team: (#12) St. Louis (ESPN has them 20)

    Most over-rated team: (#24) Pittsburgh (ESPN has them 14)

    Cheers.

  • R at 12000 cores

    From this article:

    We have done, for example, principal components analyses via singular value decomposition with matrices as large as 100,000×100,000 in under an hour.

    Wow.

     

  • NFL Graph Theory

    So far this year:

    New England beat Tennessee; Tennessee beat Detroit; Detroit beat Philadelphia, Philadelphia beat the NY Giants; the Giants beat Carolina; Carolina beat New Orleans; New Orleans beat San Diego; San Diego beat Oakland; Oakland beat Pittsburgh; Pittsburgh beat the NY Jets beat Indianapolis; Indianapolis beat Minnesota; Minnesota beat San Francisco; SAn Francisco beat Green Bay; Green Bay beat Chicago; Chicago beat St. Louis; and St. Louis beat Arizona; who beat the Patriots.

    Here’s a directed graph of the entire NFL so far this year with the cycle I described about highlighted in think black edges.  Node size is proportional to the number of team wins, and the colored groups are the divisions.

    Cheers.

  • NY Times: New Estimate Raises Civil War Death Toll

    I just found this sitting in my drafts folder.  It’s from May:

    New Estimate Raises Civil War Death Toll

    Cheers.