MLB Playoff Probabilities – 9/25/2012

The big move from last week is Detroit who jumps from a 23.3% to a 55.3% chance to make the playoffs. Moving in the opposite direction you have the White Sox who lost five game in a row at the end of last week including being swept by the Angels. This have dropped them from 88.2%, where they were on September 18, to 45.5% today. They also fell 4 spots in the rankings to number 11.

Philadelphia, after climbing to 6.1% last week, appears to be done with their hot streak as they drop back to 1.7% and are all but done.

Baltimore has more or less locked up a spot in the playoffs getting to 99.6%, which is made even more impressive since their run differential is currently -7 (Update: -11). How can you not root for these guys?

StatsInTheWild MLB rankings as of September 25, 2012 at 8:15am. SOS=strength of schedule

Team	Rank	Change	Record	Projected Record	Prob make playoffs	SOS	Run Diff
NYY	1	↑1	89-64	94-68	100%	5	+107
Texas	2	↓1	91-62	95-67	100%	11	+119
Tampa Bay	3	↑3	83-70	87-75	11.8%	7	+102
Washington	4	↓1	93-60	98-64	100%	24	+142
LA Angels	5	–	84-69	87-75	5.7%	6	+81
Oakland	6	↓2	86-67	89-73	73.2%	8	+72
Baltimore	7	↑1	88-66	92-70	99.6%	4	-7
Atlanta	8	↑2	88-65	92-70	100%	19	+89
Detroit	9	–	81-72	86-76	55.3%	13	+49
Cincinnati	10	↑1	92-61	96-66	100%	30	+85
Chi WSox	11	↓4	82-72	86-76	45.5%	14	+65
SF	12	–	89-64	93-69	100%	26	+68
St. Louis	13	–	83-71	85-77	81.9%	29	+100
Seattle	14	↑2	72-81	75-87	0%	2	-36
Arizona	15	↑3	77-76	80-82	0.1%	25	+46
Boston	16	↓1	69-85	72-90	0%	3	-34
Toronto	17	↓3	67-86	71-91	0%	1	-62
LA Dodgers	18	↓1	79-74	83-79	5.7%	23	+10
Milwaukee	19	–	79-74	82-80	10.6%	28	+41
Philadelphia	20	–	77-76	81-81	1.7%	21	+7
Kansas City	21	–	70-83	74-88	0%	12	-50
NY Mets	22	↑2	70-83	74-88	0%	15	-58
Pittsburgh	23	↓1	75-78	78-84	0%	27	-20
San Diego	24	↓1	73-80	76-86	0%	22	-48
Minnesota	25	↑1	64-90	68-94	0%	10	-122
Miami	26	↓1	66-87	69-93	0%	16	-101
Cleveland	27	–	64-91	66-96	0%	9	-176
Colorado	28	–	59-94	63-99	0%	17	-129
Chi Cubs	29	–	59-94	62-100	0%	20	-122
Houston	30	–	50-104	52-110	0%	18	-218