Clinton beat Trump. #debates

Three days after the first presidential debate, it’s fairly evident that Clinton won.  And that it wasn’t even close.  You can see below that Clinton has gotten a substantial boost in win probability based on the state electoral college markets on  Clinton has also gained in the RealClearPolitics 2 and 4 way poll aggregations and her lead in the 2 way race is now at +3 and in the 4 way race is at +2.9.  These leads are still a far cry from her nearly 8 point lead only a few weeks ago, but it must be a bit of a relief for Clinton who had been slipping recently over the past few weeks.


The plot below is based on the state markets accounting for correlation of the voting patterns between states.  Based on this, the mean number of electoral votes for Clinton is 298 with the most likely outcome for Clinton is getting 358 electoral votes.  This is very much in line with other sites that are predicting at this moment such as Princeton Election Consortium, which has Clinton at 297 and which has Clinton at 290.7.


Finally, here is a simulation of electoral vote totals if the state outcomes are assumed to be independent, which is clearly not true, but a nice simplifying assumption.  predictitpresident_20160929_dc



Posted on September 29, 2016, in Uncategorized. Bookmark the permalink. Leave a comment.

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