Stats in the Wild

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  • My favorite:
    Neural nets. Let’s call them what they are.
    (Not so) New name: Nonlinear regression.

    normaldeviate's avatarNormal Deviate

    Statisticians and Computer Scientists have done a pretty poor job of thinking of names for procedures. Names are important. No one is going to use a method called “the Stalin-Mussolini Matrix Completion Algorithm.” But who would pass up the opportunity to use the “Schwarzenegger-Shatner Statistic.” So, I have decided to offer some suggestions for re-naming some of our procedures. I am open to further suggestions.

    Bayesian Inference. Bayes did use his famous theorem to do a calculation. But it was really Laplace who systematically used Bayes’ theorem for inference.
    New Name: Laplacian Inference.

    Bayesian Nets. A Bayes nets is just a directed acyclic graph endowed with probability distribution. This has nothing to do with Bayesian — oops, I mean Laplacian — inference. According to Wikipedia, it was Judea Pearl who came up with the name.
    New Name: Pearl Graph.

    The Bayes Classification Rule. Give $latex {(X,Y)}&fg=000000$, with $latex…

    View original post 567 more words

  • Kevin Cooksey's avatarLone Star Stats

    In preparation for conference play in the 2012-13 college basketball season, here are my conference power rankings. The rankings below are derived from the average grade of the teams in the conference. This list looks at the strength of a conference from top to bottom.

    The ACC has only one team in the top 15 (Duke) while the SEC has two (Florida/Kentucky), but there are eight SEC teams ranked below 100 versus only 2 for the ACC. This results in a higher conference ranking for the ACC.

    Conference Power Rankings

    1Big 1083.327
    2Big East80.812
    3ACC80.666
    4Pac 1279.453
    5Mountain West79.000
    6Big 1278.373
    7Atlantic 1077.376
    8SEC76.978
    9West Coast73.473
    10Missouri Valley73.179
    11Conference USA70.355
    12Horizon69.025
    13WAC68.907
    14Big West68.048
    15Colonial Athletic67.853
    16Patriot67.818

    View original post 59 more words

  • BCS Methods Reviewed: An overview of the math and the “math” of the BCS.

    The BCS

    Every year, undergraduate super fans follow every pass, every defensive stop, and every concussion of the season attempting to will their team to a national championship.  Alas, it is not meant to be for most.  But fear not, for the powers that be have provided an ample, perennial scape goat for each and every fan of all of the also-rans: The BCS.

    Now, I have no problem with anyone blaming the BCS.  I’d even argue that part of the excitement of college football is arguing about the stupidity of the BCS system (But it’s still absurd), and, apparently, getting fans to argue is a fantastic way to make money (Lots of money, in fact, on the backs of essentially unpaid labor).

    But what exactly is the BCS?  It’s some combination of humans and computers getting together in a black box and spitting out some sort of ranking system that is used to decide which schools go the the BCS bowls and which schools spent way too much money to end up in the Papa John’s Pizza Bowl.  Of course, all of this is going away for the 2014-15 season, so this is our last year of BCS “joy”.  That also means it’s my last chance to really take a look at how the BCS sausage is made.

    Read Full Article

  • Michael Lugo's avatarGod plays dice

    ” Mr. Speaker, I rise today to announce the discovery of a new breakthrough in mathematics in the theory of vector bundles.” – Jerry McNerney, in US Congress last week. (Thanks to David Farris for finding this.)

    View original post

  • NFL predictions – Week 15

    Overall Records for 2012

    SU: 140-83-1 (62.72% )

    ATS: 122-101-1 (54.69%, +15.95 units, 7.12% ROI)

    O/U: 118-100-3 (53.39%, +13 units, 5.88% ROI)

    Week 15 (10-6 SU, 7-9 ATS, 11-4-1 O/U)

    Week 14 (10-6 SU, 7-9 ATS, 5-11 O/U)

    Week 13 (9-7 SU, 10-6 ATS, 8-8 O/U)

    Week 12 (9-7 SU, 8-7-1 ATS, 10-6 O/U)

    Week 11 (12-2 SU, 11-3 ATS, 5-8-1 O/U)

    Week 10 (6-7-1 SU, 7-7 ATS, 8-6 O/U)

    Week 9 (11-3 SU, 6-8 ATS, 6-7-1 O/U)

    Week 8 (10-4 SU, 9-5 ATS, 9-4 O/U)

    Week 7 (10-3 SU, 6-7 ATS, 6-7 O/U)

    Week 6 (6-8 SU, 7-7 ATS, 6-7 O/U)

    Week 5 (10-4 SU, 7-7 ATS, 7-7 O/U)

    Week 4 (10-5 SU, 10-5 ATS, 12-2 O/U)

    Week 3 (5-11 SU, 9-7 ATS, 9-7 O/U)

    Week 2 (11-5 SU, 9-7 ATS, 8-8 O/U)

    Week 1 (11-5 SU, 9-7 ATS, 8-8 O/U)

    Week 15

    Thursday @8:20pm

    Cincinnati Bengals at Philadelphia Eagles

    Prediction: Eagles win 26-24

    Pick: Eagles +3.5

    O/U: Over 45.5

    Sunday @1pm

    Indianapolis Colts at Houston Texans

    Prediction: Texans win 27-26

    Pick: Colts +8

    O/U: Over 48

    New York Giants at Atlanta Falcons

    Prediction: Falcons win 27-24

    Pick: Falcons -1.5

    O/U: Under 51.5

    Tampa Bay Buccaneers at New Orleans Saints

    Prediction: Saints win 29-24

    Pick: Saints -3

    O/U: Under 54

    Minnesota Vikings at St. Louis Rams

    Prediction: Vikings win 24-21

    Pick: Vikings +3.5

    O/U: Over 38

    Green Bay Packers at Chicago Bears

    Prediction: Packers win 26-23

    Pick: Bears +3.5

    O/U: Over 45.5

    Denver Broncos at Baltimore Ravens

    Prediction: Ravens win 27-25

    Pick: Ravens +3

    O/U: Over 48

    Jacksonville Jaguars at Miami Dolphins

    Prediction: Dolphins win 22-15

    Pick: Jaguars +7

    O/U: Under 37 (PUSH)

    Washington Redskins at Cleveland Browns

    Prediction: Redskins win 25-21

    Pick: Redskins -2.5

    O/U: Over 45.5

    Seattle Seahawks at Buffalo Bills

    Prediction: Bills win 25-24

    Pick:  Bills +4.5

    O/U: Over 42.5

    Carolina Panthers at San Diego Chargers

    Prediction: Chargers win 25-20

    Pick: Panthers +3.5

    O/U: Under 45.5

    Detroit Lions at Arizona Cardinals

    Prediction: Lions win 27-18

    Pick: Lions -6

    O/U: Over 43.5

    Sunday @4:05pm

    Kansas City Chiefs at Oakland Raiders

    Prediction: Raiders win 22-20

    Pick: Chiefs +3.5

    O/U: Under 43

    Sunday @4:25pm

    Pittsburgh Steelers at Dallas Cowboys

    Prediction: Cowboys win 23-21

    Pick:  Cowboys +1.5

    O/U: Under 44.5

    Sunday @8:20pm

    San Francisco 49ers at New England Patriots

    Prediction: Patriots win 35-24

    Pick: Patriots -5.5

    O/U: Over 47

    Monday @8:30pm

    New York Jets at Tennessee Titans

    Prediction: Titans win 23-21

    Pick: Titans -2

    O/U: Over 42

    Cheers.

  • NFL playoff probabilities

    AFC-East AFC-North AFC-South AFC-West
    NFC-East NFC-North NFC-South NFC-West

  • RIPPEN – 12-11-2012

    RIPPEN for week 14

     
    Rank Player Team RIPPEN QB_Rating
    1 Robert Griffin III WAS 36.11 102.4
    2 Colin Kaepernick SF 35.34 100.2
    3 Peyton Manning DEN 29.32 95.8
    4 Cam Newton CAR 26.71 110.1
    5 Brandon Weeden CLE 25.67 79.4
    6 Nick Foles PHI 25.26 98.6
    7 Jason Campbell CHI 25.14 124.3
    8 Joe Flacco BAL 23.92 121.4
    9 Matt Ryan ATL 23.69 94.1
    10 Russell Wilson SEA 21.77 88.0
    11 Tom Brady NE 21.59 125.4
    12 Aaron Rodgers GB 20.23 80.7
    13 Ryan Fitzpatrick BUF 18.01 93.9
    14 Matt Schaub HOU 17.00 68.8
    15 Ben Roethlisberger PIT 16.04 87.9
    16 Matthew Stafford DET 15.72 74.7
    17 Tony Romo DAL 15.22 74.6
    18 Eli Manning NYG 14.67 99.6
    19 Jake Locker TEN 13.50 71.4
    20 Drew Brees NO 12.37 75.1
    21 Mark Sanchez NYJ 11.70 79.1
    22 Andy Dalton CIN 11.14 76.1
    23 Carson Palmer OAK 10.49 101.1
    24 Brady Quinn KC 9.06 53.5
    25 Jay Cutler CHI 9.00 57.0
    26 Sam Bradford STL 8.80 62.9
    27 Philip Rivers SD 8.74 89.5
    28 Josh Freeman TB 7.64 79.2
    29 Ryan Tannehill MIA 6.70 74.1
    30 Christian Ponder MIN 6.65 53.8
    31 Andrew Luck IND 5.87 50.6
    32 Chad Henne JAX 4.02 41.3
    33 Ryan Lindley ARI 3.08 55.8
    34 John Skelton ARI 0.34 18.2

    RIPPEN for the year

     
    Rank Player Team RIPPEN QB_Rating
    1 Robert Griffin III WAS 24.3 104.2
    2 Tom Brady NE 24.0 104.2
    3 Peyton Manning DEN 22.9 104.0
    4 Alex Smith SF 22.5 104.1
    5 Aaron Rodgers GB 22.4 103.7
    6 Colin Kaepernick SF 21.9 97.5
    7 Matt Ryan ATL 20.9 94.8
    8 Matt Schaub HOU 20.8 92.7
    9 Cam Newton CAR 20.2 88.0
    10 Tony Romo DAL 19.4 88.5
    11 Russell Wilson SEA 19.3 94.9
    12 Ben Roethlisberger PIT 19.0 98.6
    13 Joe Flacco BAL 18.1 87.1
    14 Drew Brees NO 17.7 90.8
    15 Josh Freeman TB 17.6 91.1
    16 Matthew Stafford DET 16.7 82.4
    17 Eli Manning NYG 16.6 86.4
    18 Sam Bradford STL 15.7 81.9
    19 Nick Foles PHI 15.5 80.3
    20 Andrew Luck IND 14.8 74.5
    21 Ryan Tannehill MIA 14.8 72.5
    22 Jake Locker TEN 14.3 76.2
    23 Michael Vick PHI 13.9 79.2
    24 Jay Cutler CHI 13.8 80.9
    25 Ryan Fitzpatrick BUF 13.5 85.8
    26 Philip Rivers SD 13.4 85.5
    27 Brandon Weeden CLE 13.3 72.8
    28 Andy Dalton CIN 13.0 90.3
    29 Christian Ponder MIN 12.3 78.3
    30 Mark Sanchez NYJ 11.3 71.8
    31 Matt Cassel KC 10.9 66.7
    32 Carson Palmer OAK 10.7 85.3
    33 Brady Quinn KC 10.5 67.5
    34 Kevin Kolb ARI 9.8 86.1
    35 Blaine Gabbert JAX 9.6 77.4
    36 Chad Henne JAX 8.0 76.2
    37 Matt Hasselbeck TEN 7.6 81.0
    38 Jason Campbell CHI 7.3 72.8
    39 Charlie Batch PIT 6.6 64.9
    40 John Skelton ARI 6.5 55.4
    41 Byron Leftwich PIT 6.5 54.9
    42 Ryan Lindley ARI 3.3 42.6

  • NCAA Basketball Rankings – 12/11/2012

     
    Rank Team Record Strength
    1 MICHIGAN 9-0 77.85
    2 DUKE 9-0 77.34
    3 INDIANA 9-0 76.8
    4 ILLINOIS 10-0 76.56
    5 MINNESOTA 10-1 75.63
    6 SYRACUSE 8-0 75.33
    7 LOUISVILLE 8-1 75.04
    8 KANSAS 7-1 74.46
    9 PITTSBURGH 9-1 74.44
    10 ARIZONA 7-0 73.89
    11 FLORIDA 7-0 73.82
    12 OHIO STATE 6-1 73.18
    13 CREIGHTON 9-1 73.14
    14 CINCINNATI 9-0 73.03
    15 NEW MEXICO 10-0 72.75
    16 WICHITA STATE 9-0 72.19
    17 VIRGINIA TECH 8-1 72.02
    18 MIAMI-FLORIDA 5-1 71.69
    19 GONZAGA 9-1 71.66
    20 MICHIGAN STATE 8-2 71.58
    21 NOTRE DAME 8-1 71.57
    22 OKLAHOMA STATE 7-1 71.25
    23 WYOMING 10-0 71.24
    24 GEORGETOWN 8-1 70.88
    25 NORTH CAROLINA 7-2 70.72

    Full Rankings

     

     

  • NFL Rankings – 12/11/2012

    StatsInTheWild NFL rankings as of December 6, 2012 at 12:34pm.  SOS=strength of schedule

    Team Rank Change Record Projected Record ESPN TeamRankings.com SOS Prob Make Playoffs
    New England 1 – 10-3 12-4   1 17 100%
    San Francisco 2 ↑1
    		 9-3-1 11-4-1   4 4 96.85%
    Houston 3 ↓1 11-2 13-3   3 21 100%
    Denver 4 ↑1 10-3 12-4   2 29 100%
    Green Bay 5 ↑1 9-4 11-5   5 7 100%
    NY Giants 6 ↑3 8-5 10-6   7 16 86.86%
    Seattle 7 ↑3
    		 8-5 10-6   6 5 56.63%
    Atlanta 8 ↓4 11-2 13-3   11 31 100%
    Chicago 9 ↓2 8-5 10-6   15 9 72.95%
    Baltimore 10 ↓2 9-4 10-6   12 22 96.65%
    Minnesota 11 ↑3 7-6 8-8   17 6 10.04%
    Washington 12 ↑4 7-6 9-7   9 18 43.38%
    St. Louis 13 ↑2 6-6-1 8-7-1   10 2 3.19%
    Dallas 14 ↑3 7-6 9-7   13 14 33.59%
    Cincinnati 15 ↓3 7-6 9-7   16 30 43.47%
    Tampa Bay 16 ↓3 6-7 7-9   23 26 0.49%
    Indianapolis 17 ↑1 9-4 10-6   8 24 96.43%
    Pittsburgh 18 ↓7 7-6 8-8   18 27 41.22%
    NY Jets 19 ↑1 6-7 8-8   14 8 20.77%
    Detroit 20 ↑1 4-9 5-11   26 3 0.0%
    New Orleans 21 ↓2 5-8 6-10   21 19 0.0%
    Miami 22 – 5-8 6-10   19 11 0.56%
    Buffalo 23 – 5-8 6-10   22 15 0.77%
    San Diego 24 ↑1 5-8 7-9   25 32 0.0%
    Carolina 25 ↑2 4-9 6-10   24 20 0.0%
    Cleveland 26 – 5-8 6-10   20 23 0.13%
    Arizona 27 ↓3 4-9 5-11   29 1 0.0%
    Tennessee 28 – 4-9 5-11   27 12 0.0%
    Philadelphia 29 – 4-9 5-11   28 13 0.0%
    Jacksonville 30 – 2-11 3-13   30 10 0.0%
    Oakland 31 – 3-10 4-12   32 28 0.0%
    Kansas City 32 – 2-11 3-13   31 25 0.0%

    Biggest Movers

    Up

    4 Spots: Washington

    3 Spots: NY Giants, Seattle, Minnesota, Dallas,

    2 Spots: St. Louis, Carolina

    Down

    7 Spots: Pittsburgh

    4 Spots: Atlanta

    3 Spots: Cincinnati, Tampa Bay, Arizona

    2 Spots: Chicago, Baltimore, New Orleans

    Playoff Predictions

    AFC seeds(Projected Record)

    1. Houston (13-3)
    2. New England (12-4)
    3. Denver (12-4)
    4. Baltimore (10-6)
    5. Indianapolis (10-6)
    6. Cincinnati (9-7)

    NFC seeds (Projected Record)

    1. Atlanta (13-3)
    2. San Francisco (11-4-1) 
    3. Green Bay (11-5)
    4. NY Giants (10-6)
    5. Chicago (10-6)
    6. Seattle (9-7)

    Playoff Games

    Wild-Card Round

    AFC: Denver beat Cincinnati; Baltimore beats Indianapolis

    NFC: Green Bay beats Seattle; NY Giants beat Chicago

    Divisional Round

    AFC: Houston beats Baltimore; New England beats Denver

    NFC: NY Giants beat Atlanta; San Francisco beats Green Bay

    Conference Championship

    AFC: New England beats Houston

    NFC: San Francisco beats NY Giants

    Super Bowl

    New England beats San Francisco

    Cheers.

     

  • NFL playoff probability

    Here are some NFL play-off probability plots from R that have been spruced up quite a bit thanks to a friend who dabbles in the visual arts.

    Miami’s week 9 loss to the colts was very costly.  Of course the Dolphins didn’t help themselves very much with a week 10 loss to the Titans 37-3.  Their season basically went down the toilet in those two weeks.

    AFC-East

    No one has had a more up and down season than the Bengals.  They lost their first game, won three in a row, lost 4 in a row, and are currently in the midst of a 4 game winning streak.

    AFC-North

    The Texans’ playoff hopes have never really been in doubt thanks to their very fast start to the season.  The question here is can the Colts get in with the Texans.

    AFC-South

    In week 8 San Diego lost to Cleveland 7-6.  Not good.  Denver, on the other hand, has not stopped winning.

    AFC-WestThe Eagles were 3-1.  Then they decided to stop winning.

    NFC-East

    It’s pretty clear unless something crazy happens that the NFC north is getting 2 play-off teams.  At one point during the season it seemed possible they might get three teams, but Minnesota has taken a nose dive.

    NFC-North

    Falcons have been in control from the first day of the season in this division.

    NFC-South

    Wondering what an 8 game losing streak would like like in one of these graphs?  Look no further than Arizona.
    Everyone is talking about Luck and RGIII this year, but don’t sleep on Russell Wilson.  San Francisco’s dip in week 6 was a lost to the New York Giants, which moved San Francisco close to Seattle.  Then in week 7 San Francisco beat Seattle to create quite a bit of separation.

    NFC-West

    Cheers.