MLB Playoff Probabilities – 9/25/2012
The big move from last week is Detroit who jumps from a 23.3% to a 55.3% chance to make the playoffs. Moving in the opposite direction you have the White Sox who lost five game in a row at the end of last week including being swept by the Angels. This have dropped them from 88.2%, where they were on September 18, to 45.5% today. They also fell 4 spots in the rankings to number 11.
Philadelphia, after climbing to 6.1% last week, appears to be done with their hot streak as they drop back to 1.7% and are all but done.
Baltimore has more or less locked up a spot in the playoffs getting to 99.6%, which is made even more impressive since their run differential is currently -7 (Update: -11). How can you not root for these guys?
StatsInTheWild MLB rankings as of September 25, 2012 at 8:15am. SOS=strength of schedule
| Team | Rank | Change | Record | Projected Record | Prob make playoffs | SOS | Run Diff |
| NYY | 1 | ↑1 | 89-64 | 94-68 | 100% | 5 | +107 |
| Texas | 2 | ↓1 | 91-62 | 95-67 | 100% | 11 | +119 |
| Tampa Bay | 3 | ↑3 | 83-70 | 87-75 | 11.8% | 7 | +102 |
| Washington | 4 | ↓1 | 93-60 | 98-64 | 100% | 24 | +142 |
| LA Angels | 5 | – | 84-69 | 87-75 | 5.7% | 6 | +81 |
| Oakland | 6 | ↓2 | 86-67 | 89-73 | 73.2% | 8 | +72 |
| Baltimore | 7 | ↑1 | 88-66 | 92-70 | 99.6% | 4 | -7 |
| Atlanta | 8 | ↑2 | 88-65 | 92-70 | 100% | 19 | +89 |
| Detroit | 9 | – | 81-72 | 86-76 | 55.3% | 13 | +49 |
| Cincinnati | 10 | ↑1 | 92-61 | 96-66 | 100% | 30 | +85 |
| Chi WSox | 11 | ↓4 | 82-72 | 86-76 | 45.5% | 14 | +65 |
| SF | 12 | – | 89-64 | 93-69 | 100% | 26 | +68 |
| St. Louis | 13 | – | 83-71 | 85-77 | 81.9% | 29 | +100 |
| Seattle | 14 | ↑2 | 72-81 | 75-87 | 0% | 2 | -36 |
| Arizona | 15 | ↑3 | 77-76 | 80-82 | 0.1% | 25 | +46 |
| Boston | 16 | ↓1 | 69-85 | 72-90 | 0% | 3 | -34 |
| Toronto | 17 | ↓3 | 67-86 | 71-91 | 0% | 1 | -62 |
| LA Dodgers | 18 | ↓1 | 79-74 | 83-79 | 5.7% | 23 | +10 |
| Milwaukee | 19 | – | 79-74 | 82-80 | 10.6% | 28 | +41 |
| Philadelphia | 20 | – | 77-76 | 81-81 | 1.7% | 21 | +7 |
| Kansas City | 21 | – |
70-83 | 74-88 | 0% | 12 | -50 |
| NY Mets | 22 | ↑2 | 70-83 | 74-88 | 0% | 15 | -58 |
| Pittsburgh | 23 | ↓1 | 75-78 | 78-84 | 0% | 27 | -20 |
| San Diego | 24 | ↓1 | 73-80 | 76-86 | 0% | 22 | -48 |
| Minnesota | 25 | ↑1 | 64-90 | 68-94 | 0% | 10 | -122 |
| Miami | 26 | ↓1 | 66-87 | 69-93 | 0% | 16 | -101 |
| Cleveland | 27 | – | 64-91 | 66-96 | 0% | 9 | -176 |
| Colorado | 28 | – | 59-94 | 63-99 | 0% | 17 | -129 |
| Chi Cubs | 29 | – | 59-94 | 62-100 | 0% | 20 | -122 |
| Houston | 30 | – | 50-104 | 52-110 | 0% | 18 | -218 |
Past Rankings:
Cheers.
MLB Playoff Probabilities – 9/25/2012
The big move from last week is Detroit who jumps from a 23.3% to a 55.3% chance to make the playoffs. Moving in the opposite direction you have the White Sox who lost five game in a row at the end of last week including being swept by the Angels. This have dropped them from 88.2%, where they were on September 18, to 45.5% today. They also fell 4 spots in the rankings to number 11.
Philadelphia, after climbing to 6.1% last week, appears to be done with their hot streak as they drop back to 1.7% and are all but done.
Baltimore has more or less locked up a spot in the playoffs getting to 99.6%, which is made even more impressive since their run differential is currently -7 (Update: -11). How can you not root for these guys?
StatsInTheWild MLB rankings as of September 25, 2012 at 8:15am. SOS=strength of schedule
| Team | Rank | Change | Record | Projected Record | Prob make playoffs | SOS | Run Diff |
| NYY | 1 | ↑1 | 89-64 | 94-68 | 100% | 5 | +107 |
| Texas | 2 | ↓1 | 91-62 | 95-67 | 100% | 11 | +119 |
| Tampa Bay | 3 | ↑3 | 83-70 | 87-75 | 11.8% | 7 | +102 |
| Washington | 4 | ↓1 | 93-60 | 98-64 | 100% | 24 | +142 |
| LA Angels | 5 | – | 84-69 | 87-75 | 5.7% | 6 | +81 |
| Oakland | 6 | ↓2 | 86-67 | 89-73 | 73.2% | 8 | +72 |
| Baltimore | 7 | ↑1 | 88-66 | 92-70 | 99.6% | 4 | -7 |
| Atlanta | 8 | ↑2 | 88-65 | 92-70 | 100% | 19 | +89 |
| Detroit | 9 | – | 81-72 | 86-76 | 55.3% | 13 | +49 |
| Cincinnati | 10 | ↑1 | 92-61 | 96-66 | 100% | 30 | +85 |
| Chi WSox | 11 | ↓4 | 82-72 | 86-76 | 45.5% | 14 | +65 |
| SF | 12 | – | 89-64 | 93-69 | 100% | 26 | +68 |
| St. Louis | 13 | – | 83-71 | 85-77 | 81.9% | 29 | +100 |
| Seattle | 14 | ↑2 | 72-81 | 75-87 | 0% | 2 | -36 |
| Arizona | 15 | ↑3 | 77-76 | 80-82 | 0.1% | 25 | +46 |
| Boston | 16 | ↓1 | 69-85 | 72-90 | 0% | 3 | -34 |
| Toronto | 17 | ↓3 | 67-86 | 71-91 | 0% | 1 | -62 |
| LA Dodgers | 18 | ↓1 | 79-74 | 83-79 | 5.7% | 23 | +10 |
| Milwaukee | 19 | – | 79-74 | 82-80 | 10.6% | 28 | +41 |
| Philadelphia | 20 | – | 77-76 | 81-81 | 1.7% | 21 | +7 |
| Kansas City | 21 | – |
70-83 | 74-88 | 0% | 12 | -50 |
| NY Mets | 22 | ↑2 | 70-83 | 74-88 | 0% | 15 | -58 |
| Pittsburgh | 23 | ↓1 | 75-78 | 78-84 | 0% | 27 | -20 |
| San Diego | 24 | ↓1 | 73-80 | 76-86 | 0% | 22 | -48 |
| Minnesota | 25 | ↑1 | 64-90 | 68-94 | 0% | 10 | -122 |
| Miami | 26 | ↓1 | 66-87 | 69-93 | 0% | 16 | -101 |
| Cleveland | 27 | – | 64-91 | 66-96 | 0% | 9 | -176 |
| Colorado | 28 | – | 59-94 | 63-99 | 0% | 17 | -129 |
| Chi Cubs | 29 | – | 59-94 | 62-100 | 0% | 20 | -122 |
| Houston | 30 | – | 50-104 | 52-110 | 0% | 18 | -218 |
Past Rankings:
Cheers.
Edit: Please see my later post as well, which corrects an omission here.
Miguel Cabrera has a shot at the Triple Crown this year. No one has done it since Carl Yastrzemski. Is it really possible that he could win the Triple Crown and not win the MVP? Well, yes. Every advanced stats guy out there is trumpeting Mike Trout for MVP, with his “wins above replacement” (WAR) above 10 (next best in the majors is 6.8) and his 13 “total zone total fielding runs above average” (basically, this is the number of runs he has saved with his fielding, compared to an average fielder).
The discussion is eerily similar to the AL Cy Young conversation in 2010. Felix Hernandez won because he led the AL in innings pitched, ERA, and, most importantly, WAR, even though his win-loss record was a mediocre 13-12.
The 2010 Cy Young was a victory…
View original post 1,471 more words
MLB rankings – 9/25/2012
StatsInTheWild MLB rankings as of September 25, 2012 at 8:15am. SOS=strength of schedule
| Team | Rank | Change | Record | ESPN | TeamRankings.com | SOS | Run Diff |
| NYY | 1 | ↑1 | 89-64 | 4 | 1 | 5 | +107 |
| Texas | 2 | ↓1 | 91-62 | 2 | 2 | 11 | +119 |
| Tampa Bay | 3 | ↑3 | 83-70 | 11 | 7 | 7 | +102 |
| Washington | 4 | ↓1 | 93-60 | 1 | 6 | 24 | +142 |
| LA Angels | 5 | – | 84-69 | 9 | 5 | 6 | +81 |
| Oakland | 6 | ↓2 | 86-67 | 8 | 3 | 8 | +72 |
| Baltimore | 7 | ↑1 | 88-66 | 6 | 4 | 4 | -7 |
| Atlanta | 8 | ↑2 | 88-65 | 7 | 8 | 19 | +89 |
| Detroit | 9 | – | 81-72 | 12 | 11 | 13 | +49 |
| Cincinnati | 10 | ↑1 | 92-61 | 3 | 10 | 30 | +85 |
| Chi WSox | 11 | ↓4 | 82-72 | 10 | 12 | 14 | +65 |
| SF | 12 | – | 89-64 | 5 | 9 | 26 | +68 |
| St. Louis | 13 | – | 83-71 | 13 | 14 | 29 | +100 |
| Seattle | 14 | ↑2 | 72-81 | 19 | 13 | 2 | -36 |
| Arizona | 15 | ↑3 | 77-76 | 17 | 17 | 25 | +46 |
| Boston | 16 | ↓1 | 69-85 | 22 | 20 | 3 | -34 |
| Toronto | 17 | ↓3 | 67-86 | 24 | 21 | 1 | -62 |
| LA Dodgers | 18 | ↓1 | 79-74 | 15 | 18 | 23 | +10 |
| Milwaukee | 19 | – | 79-74 | 14 | 15 | 28 | +41 |
| Philadelphia | 20 | – | 77-76 | 16 | 16 | 21 | +7 |
| Kansas City | 21 | – |
70-83 | 21 | 19 | 12 | -50 |
| NY Mets | 22 | ↑2 | 70-83 | 23 | 23 | 15 | -58 |
| Pittsburgh | 23 | ↓1 | 75-78 | 18 | 24 | 27 | -20 |
| San Diego | 24 | ↓1 | 73-80 | 20 | 22 | 22 | -48 |
| Minnesota | 25 | ↑1 | 64-90 | 26 | 25 | 10 | -122 |
| Miami | 26 | ↓1 | 66-87 | 25 | 26 | 16 | -101 |
| Cleveland | 27 | – | 64-91 | 27 | 27 | 9 | -176 |
| Colorado | 28 | – | 59-94 | 29 | 28 | 17 | -129 |
| Chi Cubs | 29 | – | 59-94 | 28 | 29 | 20 | -122 |
| Houston | 30 | – | 50-104 | 30 | 30 | 18 | -218 |
Past Rankings:
Cheers.
How bad was the call last night?
UPDATE: This apparently only applies to non-US bettors.
According to a Yahoo! news article:
At least one sports book has apparently decided to sidestep the controversy by refunding the losers their money in the form of a free play, according to NESN. Sportsbook.com took the unusual step because, as one company official put it, “I can’t stand winning unfairly so I am going to give the punters their money back.”
NFL Rankings – 9/25/2012
Note: I’ve stopped using data from 2011, so these new rankings reflect only 2012 data.
StatsInTheWild MLB rankings as of September 25, 2012 at 6:10pm. SOS=strength of schedule
| Team | Rank | Change | Record | ESPN | TeamRankings.com | SOS | Points Diff |
| Arizona | 1 | ↑12 | 3-0 | 5 | 1 | 3 | +27 |
| Houston | 2 | ↑5 | 3-0 | 1 | 3 | 16 | +46 |
| Atlanta | 3 | ↑5 | 3-0 | 2 | 2 | 31 | +46 |
| Seattle | 4 | ↑10 | 2-1 | 10 | 5 | 5 | +18 |
| Chicago | 5 | ↑10 | 2-1 | 11 | 18 | 9 | +24 |
| San Francisco | 6 | ↓5 | 2-1 | 4 | 10 | 4 | +5 |
| Minnesota | 7 | ↑20 | 2-1 | 21 | 20 | 11 | +11 |
| New England | 8 | ↓5 | 1-2 | 8 | 7 | 7 | +18 |
| Baltimore | 9 | ↓5 | 2-1 | 3 | 4 | 25 | +31 |
| NY Jets | 10 | ↑7 | 2-1 | 17 | 11 | 8 | +6 |
| NY Giants | 11 | ↑2 | 2-1 | 6 | 8 | 22 | +29 |
| Buffalo | 12 | ↑11 | 2-1 | 19 | 15 | 13 | +8 |
| Green Bay | 13 | ↓11 | 1-2 | 7 | 14 | 6 | +3 |
| Dallas | 14 | ↑5 | 2-1 | 12 | 9 | 18 | -7 |
| Miami | 15 | ↑5 | 1-2 | 29 | 19 | 10 | -1 |
| Detroit | 16 | ↓7 | 1-2 | 18 | 25 | 2 | -7 |
| San Diego | 17 | ↓7 | 2-1 | 13 | 13 | 32 | +12 |
| St. Louis | 18 | ↑13 | 1-2 | 25 | 29 | 1 | -18 |
| Jacksonville | 19 | ↑11 | 1-2 | 30 | 22 | 14 | -18 |
| Philadelphia | 20 | ↓9 | 2-1 | 9 | 6 | 17 | -19 |
| Cincinnati | 21 | ↓5 | 2-1 | 15 | 12 | 27 | -17 |
| Denver | 22 | ↓4 | 1-2 | 14 | 16 | 28 | 0 |
| Pittsburgh | 23 | ↓18 | 1-2 | 16 | 17 | 26 | +2 |
| Washington | 24 | – | 1-2 | 22 | 27 | 19 | -2 |
| Indianapolis | 25 | ↑7 | 1-2 | 31 | 30 | 15 | -22 |
| Tampa Bay | 26 | ↑2 | 1-2 | 20 | 26 | 24 | -7 |
| Tennessee | 27 | ↓5 | 1-2 | 24 | 23 | 12 | -46 |
| Carolina | 28 | ↓7 | 1-2 | 23 | 28 | 21 | -27 |
| Kansas City | 29 | ↓3 | 1-2 | 26 | 21 | 29 | -31 |
| Oakland | 30 | ↓5 | 1-2 | 27 | 24 | 30 | -27 |
| Cleveland | 31 | ↓2 | 0-3 | 32 | 32 | 23 | -18 |
| New Orleans | 32 | ↓26 | 0-3 | 28 | 31 | 20 | -19 |
NCAA College Football Rankings – September 24, 2012
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NFL Week 3 Predictions
Overall Records for 2012
SU: 27-21 (56.25%)
ATS: 27-21 (56.25%)
O/U: 25-23 (52.08%)
Week 3 (5-11 SU, 9-7 ATS, 9-7 OU)
Week 2 (11-5 SU, 9-7 ATS, 8-8 O/U)
Week 1 (11-5 SU, 9-7 ATS, 8-8 O/U)
Thursday @8:20pm
New York Giants at Carolina Panthers
Prediction: Panthers win 27-26
Pick: Panthers +1.5
O/U: Over 49.5
Sunday @1pm
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Dallas Cowboys
Prediction: Cowboys win 24-20
Pick: Buccaneers +8
O/U: Under 46
New York Jets at Miami Dolphins
Prediction: Dolphins win 22-21
Pick: Dolphins +3.5
O/U: Over 40
Kansas City Chiefs at New Orleans Saints
Prediction: Saints win 34-18
Pick: Saints -9
O/U: Under 54
Cincinnati Bengals at Washington Redskins
Prediction: Bengals 20-16
Pick: Bengals +4.5
O/U: Under 49
Detroit Lions at Tennessee Titans
Prediction: Lions win 25-21
Pick: Lions -3.5
O/U: Under 47
San Francisco 49ers at Minnesota Vikings
Prediction: 49ers win 24-20
Pick: Vikings +7.5
O/U: Over 43
Jacksonville Jaguars at Indianapolis Colts
Prediction: Colts win 20-14
Pick: Colts -2.5
O/U: Under 42
St. Louis Rams at Chicago Bears
Prediction: Bears win 23-15
Pick: Rams +9
O/U: Under 44.5
Buffalo Bills at Cleveland Browns
Prediction: Bills 23-18
Pick: Bills -3
O/U: Under 44
Sunday @4:05pm
Atlanta Falcons at San Diego Chargers
Prediction: Chargers 26-25
Pick: Falcons +3.5
O/U: Over 47.5
Philadelphia Eagles at Arizona Cardinals
Prediction: Eagles 28-23
Pick: Eagles -3.5
O/U: Over 43.5
Sunday @4:25pm
Pittsburgh Steelers at Oakland Raiders
Prediction: Steelers 24-23
Pick: Raiders +4.5
O/U: Over 44.5
Houston Texans at Denver Broncos
Prediction: Texans win 25-21
Pick: Texans -2
O/U: Over 44.5
Sunday @8:20
New England Patriots at Baltimore Ravens
Prediction: Patriots win 29-22
Pick: Patriots +3.5
O/U: Over 48.5
Monday @8:30pm
Green Bay Packers at Seattle Seahawks
Prediction: Packers win 29-19
Pick: Packers -3.5
O/U: Over 47
MLB Playoff Probabilities – 9/18/2012
StatsInTheWild MLB rankings as of September 18, 2012 at 12:18pm. SOS=strength of schedule
| Team | Rank | Change | Record | Projected Record | Prob Make Playoffs | SOS | Run Diff |
| Texas | 1 | – | 87-59 | 95-67 | 99.9% | 11 | +123 |
| NYY | 2 | – | 83-63 | 91-71 | 98.0% | 5 | +97 |
| Washington | 3 | ↑1 | 89-57 | 98-64 | 99.9% | 25 | +128 |
| Oakland | 4 | ↑1 | 84-62 | 90-72 | 88.2% | 8 | +80 |
| LA Angels | 5 | ↑1 | 80-67 | 86-76 | 8.5% | 6 | +70 |
| Tampa Bay | 6 | ↓3 | 78-69 | 84-78 | 1.3% | 7 | +71 |
| Chi WSox | 7 | ↑1 | 80-66 | 88-74 | 88.2% | 14 | +76 |
| Baltimore | 8 | ↑1 | 83-64 | 90-72 | 92.5% | 4 | -14 |
| Detroit | 9 | ↑2 | 77-69 | 86-76 | 23.3% | 13 | +38 |
| Atlanta | 10 | ↓3 | 85-63 | 92-70 | 99.9% | 20 | +84 |
| Cincinnati | 11 | ↓1 | 88-59 | 96-66 | 99.9% | 30 | +78 |
| SF | 12 | – | 84-63 | 91-71 | 99.9% | 26 | +46 |
| St. Louis | 13 | – | 77-70 | 83-79 | 47.1% | 29 | +83 |
| Toronto | 14 | ↑1 | 66-79 | 73-89 | 0% | 1 | -37 |
| Boston | 15 | ↑1 | 67-81 | 73-89 | 0% | 3 | -19 |
| Seattle | 16 | ↓2 | 70-78 | 75-87 | 0% | 2 | -35 |
| LA Dodgers | 17 | – | 76-71 | 82-80 | 21.6% | 23 | +16 |
| Arizona | 18 | – | 72-74 | 78-84 | 0.3% | 24 | +30 |
| Milwaukee | 19 | ↑2 | 74-72 | 81-81 | 14.3% | 28 | +41 |
| Philadelphia | 20 | ↓1 | 74-74 | 81-81 | 6.1% | 21 | -6 |
| Kansas City | 21 | ↑1 |
66-80 | 73-89 | 0% | 12 | -43 |
| Pittsburgh | 22 | ↓1 | 74-72 | 81-81 | 10.6% | 27 | -4 |
| San Diego | 23 | ↑1 | 71-76 | 77-85 | 0% | 22 | -38 |
| NY Mets | 24 | ↓1 | 66-81 | 73-89 | 0% | 15 | -52 |
| Miami | 25 | ↑1 | 65-83 | 71-91 | 0% | 16 | -93 |
| Minnesota | 26 | ↓1 | 60-87 | 66-96 | 0% | 10 | -120 |
| Cleveland | 27 | – | 61-86 | 67-95 | 0% | 9 | -179 |
| Colorado | 28 | – | 58-88 | 65-97 | 0% | 17 | -101 |
| Chi Cubs | 29 | – | 58-89 | 63-99 | 0% | 19 | -114 |
| Houston | 30 | – | 48-99 | 53-109 | 0% | 18 | -206 |
Cheers.
MLB Rankings – 9/18/2012
StatsInTheWild MLB rankings as of September 18, 2012 at 12:18pm. SOS=strength of schedule
| Team | Rank | Change | Record | ESPN | TeamRankings.com | SOS | Run Diff |
| Texas | 1 | – | 87-59 | 1 | 1 | 11 | +123 |
| NYY | 2 | – | 83-63 | 7 | 3 | 5 | +97 |
| Washington | 3 | ↑1 | 89-57 | 2 | 5 | 25 | +128 |
| Oakland | 4 | ↑1 | 84-62 | 4 | 2 | 8 | +80 |
| LA Angels | 5 | ↑1 | 80-67 | 9 | 6 | 6 | +70 |
| Tampa Bay | 6 | ↓3 | 78-69 | 11 | 7 | 7 | +71 |
| Chi WSox | 7 | ↑1 | 80-66 | 10 | 9 | 14 | +76 |
| Baltimore | 8 | ↑1 | 83-64 | 8 | 4 | 4 | -14 |
| Detroit | 9 | ↑2 | 77-69 | 12 | 11 | 13 | +38 |
| Atlanta | 10 | ↓3 | 85-63 | 6 | 8 | 20 | +84 |
| Cincinnati | 11 | ↓1 | 88-59 | 3 | 10 | 30 | +78 |
| SF | 12 | – | 84-63 | 5 | 12 | 26 | +46 |
| St. Louis | 13 | – | 77-70 | 13 | 14 | 29 | +83 |
| Toronto | 14 | ↑1 | 66-79 | 24 | 15 | 1 | -37 |
| Boston | 15 | ↑1 | 67-81 | 23 | 17 | 3 | -19 |
| Seattle | 16 | ↓2 | 70-78 | 20 | 13 | 2 | -35 |
| LA Dodgers | 17 | – | 76-71 | 14 | 18 | 23 | +16 |
| Arizona | 18 | – | 72-74 | 17 | 19 | 24 | +30 |
| Milwaukee | 19 | ↑2 | 74-72 | 16 | 21 | 28 | +41 |
| Philadelphia | 20 | ↓1 | 74-74 | 15 | 16 | 21 | -6 |
| Kansas City | 21 | ↑1 |
66-80 | 22 | 20 | 12 | -43 |
| Pittsburgh | 22 | ↓1 | 74-72 | 18 | 23 | 27 | -4 |
| San Diego | 23 | ↑1 | 71-76 | 19 | 22 | 22 | -38 |
| NY Mets | 24 | ↓1 | 66-81 | 21 | 24 | 15 | -52 |
| Miami | 25 | ↑1 | 65-83 | 25 | 26 | 16 | -93 |
| Minnesota | 26 | ↓1 | 60-87 | 26 | 26 | 10 | -120 |
| Cleveland | 27 | – | 61-86 | 27 | 27 | 9 | -179 |
| Colorado | 28 | – | 58-88 | 28 | 28 | 17 | -101 |
| Chi Cubs | 29 | – | 58-89 | 29 | 29 | 19 | -114 |
| Houston | 30 | – | 48-99 | 30 | 30 | 18 | -206 |
Stats in the Wild 