Stats in the Wild

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  • Final Regular Season MLB Rankings – 10/4/2012

    StatsInTheWild MLB rankings as of October 4, 2012 at 8:15am.  SOS=strength of schedule

    Team Rank Change Record ESPN TeamRankings.com SOS Run Diff
    NYY 1 – 95-67 6 2 5 +136
    Tampa Bay 2 ↑1 90-72 9 4 7 +120
    Texas 3 ↓1 93-69 2 5 11 +101
    Oakland 4 ↑2 94-68 8 1 24 +99
    LA Angels 5 – 89-73 10 6 6 +68
    Washington 6 ↓2 98-64 1 7 23 +137
    Atlanta 7 ↑1 94-68 4 8 22 +100
    Baltimore 8 ↓1 93-69 7 3 4 +7
    Detroit 9 – 88-74 12 9 13 +56
    Cincinnati 10 – 97-65 3 11 29 +81
    Chi WSox 11 – 85-77 13 12 14 +72
    St. Louis 12 ↑1 88-74 11 14 28 +117
    SF 13 ↓1 94-68 5 10 26 +69
    LA Dodgers 14 ↑4 86-76 14 15 24 +40
    Seattle 15 ↓1 75-87 20 13 3 -32
    Toronto 16 ↑1 73-89 22 17 1 -68
    Arizona 17 ↓2 81-81 16 19 25 +46
    Boston 18 ↓2 69-93 24 22 2 -72
    Milwaukee 19 – 83-79 15 18 30 +43
    Philadelphia 20 – 81-81 17 16 18 +4
    Pittsburgh 21 ↑2
    		 79-83 18 24 27 -23
    NY Mets 22 – 74-88 23 23 16 -59
    Kansas City 23 ↓2 72-90 21 20 212 -70
    San Diego 24 – 76-86 19 21 21 -59
    Minnesota 25 – 66-96 26 25 10 -131
    Cleveland 26 ↑1 68-94 27 26 9 -178
    Miami 27 ↓2 69-93 25 27 15 -115
    Colorado 28 – 64-98 28 28 17 -132
    Chi Cubs 29 – 61-101 29 29 20 -146
    Houston 30 – 55-107 30 30 19 -211

    Past Rankings:

    9/25/2012

    9/18/2012

    8/20/2012

    8/14/2012

    8/6/2012

    7/23/2012

    7/9/2012

    7/2/2012

    6/25/2012

    6/19/2012

    6/9/2012

    5/28/2012

    5/23/2012

    5/14/2012

    5/7/2012

    4/30/2012

    4/23/2012

    4/16/2012

    4/13/2012

    Cheers.

  • NFL Predictions – Week 5

    Overall Records for 2012

    SU: 47-31 

    ATS: 44-33 

    O/U: 45-32

    Week 5 (10-4 SU, 7-7 ATS, 7-7 O/U)

    Week 4 (10-5 SU, 10-5 ATS, 12-2 O/U)

    Week 3 (5-11 SU, 9-7 ATS, 9-7 O/U)

    Week 2 (11-5 SU, 9-7 ATS, 8-8 O/U)

    Week 1 (11-5 SU, 9-7 ATS, 8-8 O/U)

    Week 4

    Thursday @8:25pm

    Arizona Cardinals at St. Louis Rams

    Prediction: Cardinals win 22-15

    Pick: Cardinals -1.5

    O/U: Under 39

    Sunday @1pm

    Atlanta Falcons at Washington Redskins

    Prediction: Falcons win 26-19

    Pick: Falcons -3

    O/U: Under 50

    Philadelphia Eagles at Pittsburgh Steelers

    Prediction: Eagles win 27-24

    Pick: Eagles +3.5

    O/U:  Over 44.5 

    Green Bay Packers at Indianapolis Colts

    Prediction: Packers win 29-19

    Pick: Packers -7

    O/U: Under 48

    Cleveland Browns at New York Giants

    Prediction: Giants win 24-17

    Pick: Browns +10.5

    O/U: Under 44

    Miami Dolphins at Cincinnati Bengals

    Prediction: Dolphins win 23-21

    Pick: Dolphins +4.5

    O/U: Under 44.5

    Baltimore Ravens at Kansas City Chiefs

    Prediction: Ravens win 26-18

    Pick:  Ravens -4.5

    O/U: Under 46.5

    Sunday @4:05pm

    Seattle Seahawks at Carolina Panthers

    Prediction: Panthers win 25-21

    Pick: Panthers -3

    O/U: Over 44

    Chicago Bears at Jacksonville Jaguars

    Prediction: Bears win 24-15

    Pick: Bears -4.5

    O/U: Under 40.5

    Sunday @4:25pm

    Tennessee Titans at Minnesota Vikings

    Prediction: Vikings win 23-22

    Pick: Titans +5.5

    O/U: Over 43.5

    Denver Broncos at New England Patriots

    Prediction: Patriots win 32-20

    Pick: Patriots -7

    O/U: Over 51.5

    Buffalo Bills at San Francisco 49ers

    Prediction: 49ers win 24-23

    Pick: Bills +9.5

    O/U: Over 44

    Sunday @8:30pm

    San Diego Chargers at New Orleans Saints

    Prediction: Saints win 32-27

    Pick: Saints -3

    O/U: Over 54

    Monday @8:35pm

    Houston Texans at New York Jets

    Prediction: Texans win 26-21

    Pick: Jets +9.5

    O/U: Over 41

    Cheers.

  • Week 4 QB performances reviewed via RIPPEN

    An explanation of RIPPEN

    All I have to say is that Romo threw 5 interceptions and Sanchez still had a worse game this week than Romo.  That’s astonishingly bad.

    RIPPEN rankings for week 4 performances:

    Player Team RIPPEN QB rating
    Cutler, J. CHI 45.991 140.1
    Griffin, III, R.  WAS 41.929 102.4
    Newton, C. CAR 33.071 119.3
    Manning, P. DEN 33.046 130.0
    Vick, M. PHI 29.562 99.4
    Brady, T.  NE 29.519 120.1
    Rivers, P. SD 29.445 115.4
    Brees, D. NO 28.395 109.0
    Schaub, M. HOU 28.292 115.5
    Ryan, M. ATL 24.571 107.2
    Tannehill, R. MIA 22.815 86.5
    Stafford, M. DET 22.177 77.2
    Smith, A. SF 22.025 78.1
    Rodgers, A. GB 20.369 119.9
    Freeman, J. TB 18.074 83.2
    Bradford, S. STL 17.914 63.3
    Dalton, A. CIN 17.006 96.7
    Hasselbeck, M. TEN 16.055 84.2
    Kolb, K. ARI 13.856 84.0
    Palmer, C. OAK 13.676 73.4
    Flacco, J. BAL 13.406 83.2
    Fitzpatrick, R. BUF 13.169 81.1
    Weeden, B. CLE 12.929 59.8
    Manning, E. NYG 9.841 86.3
    Romo, T. DAL 9.81 60.1
    Cassel, M. KC 8.920 60.7
    Ponder, C. MIN 6.323 71.2
    Gabbert, B. JAX 4.669 78.8
    Wilson, R. SEA 3.200 45.8
    Sanchez, M.  NYJ 2.152 39.9

    Cheers.

  • 11th place

     

     

     

    I’m currently in 11th place (up a few after Chicago’s win) with a 37-26 record (58.73%) in picks so far in the TeamRankings.com NFL pool.  As a pessimist, I assume this is going to fall apart in grand fashion.  

  • NFL Rankings – 10/3/2012

    StatsInTheWild NFL rankings as of October 2, 2012 at 6:48pm.  SOS=strength of schedule

    Team Rank Change Record ESPN TeamRankings.com SOS Points Diff
    Arizona 1 – 4-0 5 2 3 +30
    Houston 2 – 4-0 2 1 16 +70
    San Francisco 3 ↑3 3-1 4 7 5 +39
    Chicago 4 ↑1 3-1 9 9 8 +40
    Minnesota 5 ↑2 3-1 14 10 7 +18
    Atlanta 6 ↓3 4-0 2 3 31 +48
    New England 7 ↑1 2-2 6 5 11 +42
    Baltimore 8 ↑1 3-1 3 4 4 +38
    Seattle 9 ↓5 2-2 17 13 4 +12
    Green Bay 10 ↑3 2-2 8 14 6 +4
    St. Louis 11 ↑7 2-2 19 16 2 -12
    NY Giants 12 ↓5 2-2 10 17 20 +27
    San Diego 13 ↑4 3-1 11 12 32 +29
    Denver 14 ↑8 2-2 13 11 28 +31
    Cincinnati 15 ↑7 3-1 12 6 27 0
    Detroit 16 – 1-3 20 26 1 -14
    Philadelphia 17 ↑3 3-1 7 8 19 -17
    NY Jets 18 ↓8 2-2 23 18 9 -28
    Miami 19 ↓4 1-3 26 22 12 -4
    Washington 20 ↑4 2-2 18 21 18 0
    Buffalo 21 ↓9 2-2 21 24 14 -16
    Dallas 22 ↓8 2-2 15 20 17 -23
    Pittsburgh 23 – 1-2 16 23 26 +2
    Indianapolis 24 ↑1 1-2 31 19 15 -22
    Jacksonville 25 ↓6 1-3 30 15 13 -35
    Tampa Bay 26 – 1-3 22 30 25 -9
    Carolina 27 ↑1 1-3 24 31 23 -29
    Tennessee 28 ↓1 1-3 25 25 10 -70
    Cleveland 29 ↑2 0-4 32 28 22 -25
    New Orleans 30 ↑2 0-4 28 32 21 -20
    Kansas City 31 ↓2 1-3 27 29 30 -48
    Oakland 32 ↓2 1-3 29 27 29 -58

  • RIPPEN Ratings – 10/2/2012

    An explanation of RIPPEN

    RGIII moves into the number one spot on the year with his nearly 70% completion percentage, 8.6 Yards per attempt, and only one interception so far.  Brady, Ryan, Schaub, and Newton round out the top 5.  The bottom five are Fitzpatrick, Sanchez, Weeden, Wilson, and,in dead last, Gabbert.

    Fitzpatrick is being way over-rated by passer rating because he leads the league in passing touchdowns at 12. His QB rating is being artificially inflated because he was lucky enough to have his offensive coordinator call passing plays near the end zone.  RIPPEN ignores this.  On the other send of the spectrum, a guy like Cam Newton is being under-valued by QB rating.  Sure, he’s thrown 5 interceptions so far this year, but he is also averaging 9.5 yards per attempt, which leads the league.  He’s 0.7 yards per attempt better than the second QB, Andy Dalton, who is at 8.8 yards per attempt.

    So feel free to go on using QB rating and thinking Ryan Fitzpatrick is an average quarterback, but, if you prefer, you can catch a slightly better glimpse of reality by using RIPPEN.

    RIPPEN rankings after four weeks of games:

    Player Team RIPPEN QB rating
    Griffin, III, R.  WAS 28.369 103.2
    Brady, T. NE 27.833 102.4
    Ryan, M. ATL 25.793 112.1
    Schaub, M. HOU 25.475 105.3
    Newton, C. CAR 24.292 87.5
    Smith, A. SF 23.354 98.1
    Manning, P. DEN 23.299 96.9
    Ponder, C. MIN 22.868 97.7
    Roethlisberger, B. PIT 22.691 109.2
    Manning, E. NYG 22.261 94.3
    Dalton, A. CIN 22.154 103.0
    Flacco, J. BAL 19.096 95.8
    Rivers, P. SD 18.154 91.9
    Stafford, M. DET 18.099 81.6
    Romo, T. DAL 17.627 78.5
    Brees, D. NO 17.494 86.1
    Rodgers, A. GB 17.316 95.7
    Kolb, K. ARI 17.084 97.6
    Locker, J. TEN 16.944 90.2
    Vick, M. PHI 16.527 72.7
    Bradford, S. STL 16.438 80.1
    Luck, A. IND 16.418 75.4
    Cutler, J. CHI 15.483 75.3
    Tannehill, R. MIA 13.823 66.4
    Cassel, M. KC 13.304 70.4
    Palmer, C. OAK 12.946 86.0
    Freeman, J. TB 12.847 75.3
    Fitzpatrick, R. BUF 12.485 89.8
    Sanchez, M. NYJ 11.453 69.9
    Weeden, B. CLE 9.213 60.4
    Wilson, R.  SEA 8.816 73.5
    Gabbert, B. JAX 7.808 83.7

    Cheers.

     

  • Tyler Williams's avatarCausal Sports Fan

    Bill Barnwell is up to his usual tricks at Grantland. This time, he’s tired of hearing that Flacco is an elite quarterback and wants a new measure of quarterback value. Flacco gets credit for piling up wins, which Barnwell thinks is unfair:

    For whatever good or bad Flacco provides, he has spent his entire career as the starting quarterback of the Baltimore Ravens, who perennially possess one of the league’s best defenses. He also has Ray Rice and a solid running game to go alongside him on offense. It’s safe to say that a win by, say, Cam Newton usually requires more work from the quarterback than one by Flacco.

    I agree with this wholeheartedly. In response, Barnwell tries to capture quarterback value by creating an “expected wins” measure based on points allowed by the defense and comparing this to actual wins. He argues that a quarterback with more…

    View original post 955 more words

  • Off to a good start

     

    I’m currently sitting tied for 13th out of 508 participants in the TeamRankings NFL Pick ’em pool.  Not a bad start.

    Cheers.

  • NCAA Football Rankings – 10/1/2012

     
    Teams records
    1 ALABAMA 5-0
    2 TEXAS 4-0
    3 TEXAS TECH 4-0
    4 KANSAS STATE 4-0
    5 OREGON 5-0
    6 WEST VIRGINIA 4-0
    7 LSU 5-0
    8 SO CAROLINA 5-0
    9 GEORGIA 5-0
    10 TCU 4-0
    11 FLORIDA 4-0
    12 FLORIDA STATE 5-0
    13 OREGON STATE 3-0
    14 NOTRE DAME 4-0
    15 STANFORD 3-1
    16 IOWA STATE 3-1
    17 ARIZONA STATE 4-1
    18 BAYLOR 3-1
    19 TEXAS A&M 3-1
    20 OKLAHOMA 2-1
    21 MISS STATE 4-0
    22 USC 3-1
    23 UCLA 4-1
    24 OKLAHOMA STATE 2-2
    25 OHIO STATE 5-0
    26 NORTHWESTERN 5-0
    27 ARIZONA 3-2
    28 CLEMSON 4-1
    29 NEBRASKA 4-1
    30 LOUISVILLE 5-0
    31 MIAMI-FLORIDA 4-1
    32 WASHINGTON 3-1
    33 CINCINNATI 3-0
    34 TENNESSEE 3-2
    35 LOUISIANA TECH 4-0
    36 IOWA 3-2
    37 MISSOURI 3-2
    38 PURDUE 3-1
    39 MICHIGAN STATE 3-2
    40 MIDDLE TENNESSEE 3-1
    41 PENN STATE 3-2
    42 BYU 3-2
    43 UTAH STATE 4-1
    44 NEVADA 4-1
    45 OLE MISS 3-2
    46 DUKE 4-1
    47 MICHIGAN 2-2
    48 RUTGERS 4-0
    49 WISCONSIN 3-2
    50 NORTH CAROLINA 3-2
    51 SAN JOSE ST 4-1
    52 FRESNO STATE 3-2
    53 MINNESOTA 4-1
    54 KANSAS 1-3
    55 VIRGINIA TECH 3-2
    56 WESTERN KY 4-1
    57 PITTSBURGH 2-2
    58 UTAH 2-2
    59 AUBURN 1-3
    60 MARYLAND 2-2
    61 BOISE STATE 3-1
    62 GEORGIA TECH 2-3
    63 NC STATE 3-2
    64 OHIO U 5-0
    65 TX-SAN ANTONIO 5-0
    66 KENTUCKY 1-4
    67 TOLEDO 4-1
    68 LOUISIANA 3-1
    69 WASHINGTON ST 2-3
    70 NORTHERN ILL 4-1
    71 INDIANA 2-2
    72 CONNECTICUT 3-2
    73 WAKE FOREST 3-2
    74 TROY 3-2
    75 CALIFORNIA 1-4
    76 ULM 2-2
    77 VANDERBILT 1-3
    78 SYRACUSE 1-3
    79 TULSA 4-1
    80 SO FLORIDA 2-3
    81 ARKANSAS 1-4
    82 TEXAS STATE 2-2
    83 BALL STATE 3-2
    84 BOSTON COLLEGE 1-3
    85 WYOMING 1-3
    86 ILLINOIS 2-3
    87 VIRGINIA 2-3
    88 NEW MEXICO 2-3
    89 NORTH TEXAS 2-3
    90 AIR FORCE 2-2
    91 SAN DIEGO ST 2-3
    92 UCF 2-2
    93 TEMPLE 1-2
    94 COLORADO 1-4
    95 UNLV 1-4
    96 KENT STATE 3-1
    97 ARKANSAS STATE 2-3
    98 EAST CAROLINA 3-2
    99 MIAMI-OHIO 3-2
    100 MARSHALL 2-3
    101 FLA ATLANTIC 1-4
    102 COLORADO STATE 1-4
    103 HOUSTON 1-3
    104 NAVY 1-3
    105 WESTERN MICH 2-3
    106 BOWLING GREEN 2-3
    107 SMU 1-3
    108 BUFFALO 1-3
    109 TEXAS-EL PASO 1-4
    110 SOUTH ALABAMA 1-4
    111 FIU 1-4
    112 IDAHO 0-5
    113 CENTRAL MICH 2-2
    114 HAWAII 1-3
    115 EASTERN MICH 0-4
    116 ARMY 0-4
    117 UAB 0-4
    118 RICE 1-4
    119 SOUTHERN MISS 0-4
    120 NEW MEXICO ST 1-4
    121 MEMPHIS 0-4
    122 AKRON 1-4
    123 TULANE 0-4
    124 MASSACHUSETTS 0-5