Category Archives: Baseball

Final Regular Season MLB Rankings – 10/4/2012

StatsInTheWild MLB rankings as of October 4, 2012 at 8:15am.  SOS=strength of schedule

Team Rank Change Record ESPN TeamRankings.com SOS Run Diff
NYY 1 95-67 6 2 5 +136
Tampa Bay 2 ↑1 90-72 9 4 7 +120
Texas 3 ↓1 93-69 2 5 11 +101
Oakland 4 ↑2 94-68 8 1 24 +99
LA Angels 5 89-73 10 6 6 +68
Washington 6 ↓2 98-64 1 7 23 +137
Atlanta 7 ↑1 94-68 4 8 22 +100
Baltimore 8 ↓1 93-69 7 3 4 +7
Detroit 9 88-74 12 9 13 +56
Cincinnati 10 97-65 3 11 29 +81
Chi WSox 11 85-77 13 12 14 +72
St. Louis 12 ↑1 88-74 11 14 28 +117
SF 13 ↓1 94-68 5 10 26 +69
LA Dodgers 14 ↑4 86-76 14 15 24 +40
Seattle 15 ↓1 75-87 20 13 3 -32
Toronto 16 ↑1 73-89 22 17 1 -68
Arizona 17 ↓2 81-81 16 19 25 +46
Boston 18 ↓2 69-93 24 22 2 -72
Milwaukee 19 83-79 15 18 30 +43
Philadelphia 20 81-81 17 16 18 +4
Pittsburgh 21 ↑2
79-83 18 24 27 -23
NY Mets 22 74-88 23 23 16 -59
Kansas City 23 ↓2 72-90 21 20 212 -70
San Diego 24 76-86 19 21 21 -59
Minnesota 25 66-96 26 25 10 -131
Cleveland 26 ↑1 68-94 27 26 9 -178
Miami 27 ↓2 69-93 25 27 15 -115
Colorado 28 64-98 28 28 17 -132
Chi Cubs 29 61-101 29 29 20 -146
Houston 30 55-107 30 30 19 -211

Past Rankings:

9/25/2012

9/18/2012

8/20/2012

8/14/2012

8/6/2012

7/23/2012

7/9/2012

7/2/2012

6/25/2012

6/19/2012

6/9/2012

5/28/2012

5/23/2012

5/14/2012

5/7/2012

4/30/2012

4/23/2012

4/16/2012

4/13/2012

Cheers.

MLB Playoff Probabilities – 9/25/2012

The big move from last week is Detroit who jumps from a 23.3% to a 55.3% chance to make the playoffs.  Moving in the opposite direction you have the White Sox who lost five game in a row at the end of last week including being swept by the Angels.  This have dropped them from 88.2%, where they were on September 18, to 45.5% today.  They also fell 4 spots in the rankings to number 11.

Philadelphia, after climbing to 6.1% last week, appears to be done with their hot streak as they drop back to 1.7% and are all but done.

Baltimore has more or less locked up a spot in the playoffs getting to 99.6%, which is made even more impressive since their run differential is currently -7 (Update: -11).  How can you not root for these guys?

StatsInTheWild MLB rankings as of September 25, 2012 at 8:15am.  SOS=strength of schedule

Team Rank Change Record Projected Record Prob make playoffs SOS Run Diff
NYY 1 ↑1 89-64 94-68 100% 5 +107
Texas 2 ↓1 91-62 95-67 100% 11 +119
Tampa Bay 3 ↑3 83-70 87-75 11.8% 7 +102
Washington 4 ↓1 93-60 98-64 100% 24 +142
LA Angels 5 84-69 87-75 5.7% 6 +81
Oakland 6 ↓2 86-67 89-73 73.2% 8 +72
Baltimore 7 ↑1 88-66 92-70 99.6% 4 -7
Atlanta 8 ↑2 88-65 92-70 100% 19 +89
Detroit 9 81-72 86-76 55.3% 13 +49
Cincinnati 10 ↑1 92-61 96-66 100% 30 +85
Chi WSox 11 ↓4 82-72 86-76 45.5% 14 +65
SF 12 89-64 93-69 100% 26 +68
St. Louis 13 83-71 85-77 81.9% 29 +100
Seattle 14 ↑2 72-81 75-87 0% 2 -36
Arizona 15 ↑3 77-76 80-82 0.1% 25 +46
Boston 16 ↓1 69-85 72-90 0% 3 -34
Toronto 17 ↓3 67-86 71-91 0% 1 -62
LA Dodgers 18 ↓1 79-74 83-79 5.7% 23 +10
Milwaukee 19 79-74 82-80 10.6% 28 +41
Philadelphia 20 77-76 81-81 1.7% 21 +7
Kansas City 21
70-83 74-88 0% 12 -50
NY Mets 22 ↑2 70-83 74-88 0% 15 -58
Pittsburgh 23 ↓1 75-78 78-84 0% 27 -20
San Diego 24 ↓1 73-80 76-86 0% 22 -48
Minnesota 25 ↑1 64-90 68-94 0% 10 -122
Miami 26 ↓1 66-87 69-93 0% 16 -101
Cleveland 27 64-91 66-96 0% 9 -176
Colorado 28 59-94 63-99 0% 17 -129
Chi Cubs 29 59-94 62-100 0% 20 -122
Houston 30 50-104 52-110 0% 18 -218

Past Rankings:

9/18/2012

8/20/2012

8/14/2012

8/6/2012

7/23/2012

7/9/2012

7/2/2012

6/25/2012

6/19/2012

6/9/2012

5/28/2012

5/23/2012

5/14/2012

5/7/2012

4/30/2012

4/23/2012

4/16/2012

4/13/2012

Cheers.

MLB rankings – 9/25/2012

StatsInTheWild MLB rankings as of September 25, 2012 at 8:15am.  SOS=strength of schedule

Team Rank Change Record ESPN TeamRankings.com SOS Run Diff
NYY 1 ↑1 89-64 4 1 5 +107
Texas 2 ↓1 91-62 2 2 11 +119
Tampa Bay 3 ↑3 83-70 11 7 7 +102
Washington 4 ↓1 93-60 1 6 24 +142
LA Angels 5 84-69 9 5 6 +81
Oakland 6 ↓2 86-67 8 3 8 +72
Baltimore 7 ↑1 88-66 6 4 4 -7
Atlanta 8 ↑2 88-65 7 8 19 +89
Detroit 9 81-72 12 11 13 +49
Cincinnati 10 ↑1 92-61 3 10 30 +85
Chi WSox 11 ↓4 82-72 10 12 14 +65
SF 12 89-64 5 9 26 +68
St. Louis 13 83-71 13 14 29 +100
Seattle 14 ↑2 72-81 19 13 2 -36
Arizona 15 ↑3 77-76 17 17 25 +46
Boston 16 ↓1 69-85 22 20 3 -34
Toronto 17 ↓3 67-86 24 21 1 -62
LA Dodgers 18 ↓1 79-74 15 18 23 +10
Milwaukee 19 79-74 14 15 28 +41
Philadelphia 20 77-76 16 16 21 +7
Kansas City 21
70-83 21 19 12 -50
NY Mets 22 ↑2 70-83 23 23 15 -58
Pittsburgh 23 ↓1 75-78 18 24 27 -20
San Diego 24 ↓1 73-80 20 22 22 -48
Minnesota 25 ↑1 64-90 26 25 10 -122
Miami 26 ↓1 66-87 25 26 16 -101
Cleveland 27 64-91 27 27 9 -176
Colorado 28 59-94 29 28 17 -129
Chi Cubs 29 59-94 28 29 20 -122
Houston 30 50-104 30 30 18 -218

Past Rankings:

9/18/2012

8/20/2012

8/14/2012

8/6/2012

7/23/2012

7/9/2012

7/2/2012

6/25/2012

6/19/2012

6/9/2012

5/28/2012

5/23/2012

5/14/2012

5/7/2012

4/30/2012

4/23/2012

4/16/2012

4/13/2012

Cheers.

MLB Playoff Probabilities – 9/18/2012

StatsInTheWild MLB rankings as of September 18, 2012 at 12:18pm.  SOS=strength of schedule

Team Rank Change Record Projected Record Prob Make Playoffs SOS Run Diff
Texas 1 87-59 95-67 99.9% 11 +123
NYY 2 83-63 91-71 98.0% 5 +97
Washington 3 ↑1 89-57 98-64 99.9% 25 +128
Oakland 4 ↑1 84-62 90-72 88.2% 8 +80
LA Angels 5 ↑1 80-67 86-76 8.5% 6 +70
Tampa Bay 6 ↓3 78-69 84-78 1.3% 7 +71
Chi WSox 7 ↑1 80-66 88-74 88.2% 14 +76
Baltimore 8 ↑1 83-64 90-72 92.5% 4 -14
Detroit 9 ↑2 77-69 86-76 23.3% 13 +38
Atlanta 10 ↓3 85-63 92-70 99.9% 20 +84
Cincinnati 11 ↓1 88-59 96-66 99.9% 30 +78
SF 12 84-63 91-71 99.9% 26 +46
St. Louis 13 77-70 83-79 47.1% 29 +83
Toronto 14 ↑1 66-79 73-89 0% 1 -37
Boston 15 ↑1 67-81 73-89 0% 3 -19
Seattle 16 ↓2 70-78 75-87 0% 2 -35
LA Dodgers 17 76-71 82-80 21.6% 23 +16
Arizona 18 72-74 78-84 0.3% 24 +30
Milwaukee 19 ↑2 74-72 81-81 14.3% 28 +41
Philadelphia 20 ↓1 74-74 81-81 6.1% 21 -6
Kansas City 21 ↑1
66-80 73-89 0% 12 -43
Pittsburgh 22 ↓1 74-72 81-81 10.6% 27 -4
San Diego 23 ↑1 71-76 77-85 0% 22 -38
NY Mets 24 ↓1 66-81 73-89 0% 15 -52
Miami 25 ↑1 65-83 71-91 0% 16 -93
Minnesota 26 ↓1 60-87 66-96 0% 10 -120
Cleveland 27 61-86 67-95 0% 9 -179
Colorado 28 58-88 65-97 0% 17 -101
Chi Cubs 29 58-89 63-99 0% 19 -114
Houston 30 48-99 53-109 0% 18 -206

Cheers.

MLB Rankings – 9/18/2012

StatsInTheWild MLB rankings as of September 18, 2012 at 12:18pm.  SOS=strength of schedule

Team Rank Change Record ESPN TeamRankings.com SOS Run Diff
Texas 1 87-59 1 1 11 +123
NYY 2 83-63 7 3 5 +97
Washington 3 ↑1 89-57 2 5 25 +128
Oakland 4 ↑1 84-62 4 2 8 +80
LA Angels 5 ↑1 80-67 9 6 6 +70
Tampa Bay 6 ↓3 78-69 11 7 7 +71
Chi WSox 7 ↑1 80-66 10 9 14 +76
Baltimore 8 ↑1 83-64 8 4 4 -14
Detroit 9 ↑2 77-69 12 11 13 +38
Atlanta 10 ↓3 85-63 6 8 20 +84
Cincinnati 11 ↓1 88-59 3 10 30 +78
SF 12 84-63 5 12 26 +46
St. Louis 13 77-70 13 14 29 +83
Toronto 14 ↑1 66-79 24 15 1 -37
Boston 15 ↑1 67-81 23 17 3 -19
Seattle 16 ↓2 70-78 20 13 2 -35
LA Dodgers 17 76-71 14 18 23 +16
Arizona 18 72-74 17 19 24 +30
Milwaukee 19 ↑2 74-72 16 21 28 +41
Philadelphia 20 ↓1 74-74 15 16 21 -6
Kansas City 21 ↑1
66-80 22 20 12 -43
Pittsburgh 22 ↓1 74-72 18 23 27 -4
San Diego 23 ↑1 71-76 19 22 22 -38
NY Mets 24 ↓1 66-81 21 24 15 -52
Miami 25 ↑1 65-83 25 26 16 -93
Minnesota 26 ↓1 60-87 26 26 10 -120
Cleveland 27 61-86 27 27 9 -179
Colorado 28 58-88 28 28 17 -101
Chi Cubs 29 58-89 29 29 19 -114
Houston 30 48-99 30 30 18 -206

Yunel Escobar, Homosexual Slurs, and the 2008 Presidential Election

I just came across this poll question on ESPN about people’s opinions regarding the Yunel Escobar’s suspension, and I couldn’t help but notice that this map (below) look very similar to the 2008 presidential election map.  I suppose you could view the map below as essentially serving as a state by state snap shot of how residents (well residents who read ESPN.com and vote in their polls) feel about homosexual slurs.  Take a look at this map:

Now take a look at this map that shows which states voted for McCain and Obama in the 2008 presidential election:

The similarities are striking.  The states that judge the punishment to be too harsh, the blue states in ESPN’s map, align very strongly with red states in the presidential map.  Similarly, the green (Too lenient) and red (Just right) states align very closely with the blue states in the presidential election map.  All six of the green states voted for Obama in the last election with the exception of South Dakota.  Of the red states in the ESPN map only Montana, North Dakota  West Virginia went for McCain in 2008.  Likewise, of the blue states in the ESPN map only Indiana, North Carolina, and Florida went for Obama.  Finally, here is a two by two table with a break down of the relationship between Yunel Escobar opinions and presidential states.  (The p-value for the fisher test of independence between rows and columns is 8.213e-07).   So, it seems there is a  significant association between how people feel about Yunel Escobar’s suspension for using a gay slur and how that state voted in the 2008 presidential election.

Cheers.

MLB Ranking – 9/12/2012

StatsInTheWild MLB rankings as of September 11, 2012 at 12:18pm.  SOS=strength of schedule

Team Rank Change Record ESPN TeamRankings.com SOS Run Diff
Texas 1 83-57 2 1 11 +116
NYY 2 79-61 8 3 5 +92
Tampa Bay 3 77-63 9 5 7 +78
Washington 4 ↑1 87-54 1 4 25 +132
Oakland 5 ↓1 80-60 7 2 8 +83
LA Angels 6 77-64 10 6 6 +65
Atlanta 7 ↑3 81-61 4 8 19 +82
Chi WSox 8 76-64 11 10 14 +62
Baltimore 9 ↑2 78-62 5 7 3 -22
Cincinnati 10 ↓1 85-57 3 9 30 +82
Detroit 11 ↓4 73-67 12 11 13 +32
SF 12 ↑1 79-62 6 12 26 +43
St. Louis 13 ↓1 75-66 13 15 29 +43
Seattle 14 67-74 19 13 2 -20
Toronto 15 ↑2 64-75 22 14 1 -42
Boston 16 ↓1 63-78 23 18 4 -18
LA Dodgers 17 ↓1 74-67 14 17 23 +17
Arizona 18 69-72 18 20 24 +26
Philadelphia 19 ↑2 70-71 16 16 20 -8
Pittsburgh 20 ↓1 72-68 15 21 27 0
Milwaukee 21 ↑1
70-71 17 22 28 +33
Kansas City 22 ↑1 63-77 24 19 12 -45
NY Mets 23 ↓3 65-76 21 24 15 -46
San Diego 24 67-75 20 23 22 -38
Minnesota 25 59-82 26 25 10 -101
Miami 26 63-79 25 26 16 -94
Cleveland 27 59-82 28 27 9 -172
Colorado 28 57-83 27 28 17 -96
Chi Cubs 29 55-86 29 29 21 -121
Houston 30 44-97 30 30 18 -204

Past Rankings:

8/20/2012

8/14/2012

8/6/2012

7/23/2012

7/9/2012

7/2/2012

6/25/2012

6/19/2012

6/9/2012

5/28/2012

5/23/2012

5/14/2012

5/7/2012

4/30/2012

4/23/2012

4/16/2012

4/13/2012

Cheers.

MLB Playoff Probabilities – 9/12/2012

StatsInTheWild MLB rankings as of September 11, 2012 at 12:18pm.  SOS=strength of schedule

Team Rank Change Record Projected Record Prob of making playoffs SOS Run Diff
Texas 1 83-57 94-68 99.4% 11 +116
NYY 2 79-61 90-72 87.4% 5 +92
Tampa Bay 3 77-63 88-74 46.4% 7 +78
Washington 4 ↑1 87-54 98-64 99.9% 25 +132
Oakland 5 ↓1 80-60 90-72 74.7% 8 +83
LA Angels 6 77-64 86-76 25.0% 6 +65
Atlanta 7 ↑3 81-61 91-71 99.6% 19 +82
Chi WSox 8 76-64 86-76 82.1% 14 +62
Baltimore 9 ↑2 78-62 89-73 71.7% 3 -22
Cincinnati 10 ↓1 85-57 95-67 99.9% 30 +82
Detroit 11 ↓4 73-67 84-78 19.7% 13 +32
SF 12 ↑1 79-62 89-73 98.6% 26 +43
St. Louis 13 ↓1 75-66 84-78 47.7% 29 +43
Seattle 14 67-74 75-87 0% 2 -20
Toronto 15 ↑2 64-75 74-88 0% 1 -42
Boston 16 ↓1 63-78 72-90 0% 4 -18
LA Dodgers 17 ↓1 74-67 83-79 25.0% 23 +17
Arizona 18 69-72 78-84 0.5% 24 +26
Philadelphia 19 ↑2 70-71 80-82 2.2% 20 -8
Pittsburgh 20 ↓1 72-68 82-80 24.9% 27 0
Milwaukee 21 ↑1
70-71 79-83 1.5% 28 +33
Kansas City 22 ↑1 63-77 74-88 0% 12 -45
NY Mets 23 ↓3 65-76 74-88 0% 15 -46
San Diego 24 67-75 75-87 0% 22 -38
Minnesota 25 59-82 68-94 0% 10 -101
Miami 26 63-79 71-91 0% 16 -94
Cleveland 27 59-82 68-94 0% 9 -172
Colorado 28 57-83 67-95 0% 17 -96
Chi Cubs 29 55-86 64-98 0% 21 -121
Houston 30 44-97 52-110 0% 18 -204

Cheers.

MLB Payroll vs Winning percentage

Dave Cameron over at FanGraphs wrote an interesting article about 2012 payroll and wins.  In it, he used a scatterplot, which I assume was made with excel.  I’d like to try to persuade everyone to stop making graphics in excel.  I’m probably a little bit biased, but R with the ggplot2 package is much, much better.  (And it’s easy!) I present to you below, my entire argument for why R with ggplot2 is better than excel:

Here is the code for making this graph

Cheers.

MLB Playoff Probabilities – 9/4/2012

StatsInTheWild MLB rankings as of September 4, 2012 at 12:18pm.  SOS=strength of schedule

Team Rank Change Record Projected Record Prob of making playoffs SOS Run Diff
Texas 1 ↑1 80-54 95-67 99.3% 11 +121
NYY 2 ↓1 76-58 90-72 87.4% 6 +86
Tampa Bay 3 74-61 87-75 43.4% 7 +78
Oakland 4 ↑1 76-58 89-73 69.2% 8 +79
Washington 5 ↓1 82-52 97-65 99.9% 25 +114
LA Angels 6 ↑4 72-63 84-78 7.9% 5 +50
Detroit 7 ↑2 72-62 86-76 53.8% 13 +37
Chi WSox 8 ↓1 73-61 87-75 66.2% 14 +66
Cincinnati 9 ↓1 82-54 95-67 99.9% 30 +84
Atlanta 10 ↓4 76-59 89-73 96.0% 22 +82
Baltimore 11 ↑1 75-59 88-74 72.8% 3 -31
St. Louis 12 ↑1 70-64 85-77 44.5% 29 +97
SF 13 ↑5 77-58 90-72 96.8% 26 +43
Seattle 14 ↑1 66-70 77-85 0% 2 -9
Boston 15 ↓4 62-74 73-89 0% 4 -9
LA Dodgers 16 73-63 85-77 34.4% 24 +28
Toronto 17 ↓3 60-74 72-90 0% 1 -41
Arizona 18 ↓1 66-70 76-84 0.1% 23 +23
Pittsburgh 19 70-64 84-78 27.4% 28 +9
NY Mets 20 ↑1 64-71 76-86 0.1% 15 -28
Philadelphia 21 ↑1 65-70 78-84 0% 20 -20
Milwaukee 22 ↑3 65-69 77-85 0.7% 27 +19
Kansas City 23 ↓3 60-74 73-89 0% 12 -56
San Diego 24 ↑3 62-74 73-89 0% 21 -56
Minnesota 25 55-80 67-95 0% 10 -106
Miami 26 60-75 71-91 0% 16 -96
Cleveland 27 ↓4 57-78 68-94 0% 9 -157
Colorado 28 ↑1 55-78 67-95 0% 18 -95
Chi Cubs 29 ↓1 51-83 63-99 0% 19 -115
Houston 30 42-93 52-110 0% 17 -197

Cheers.