Guns are a public health problem.

2014 Record 2015 Record My record 2016: Total (weeks 1-11) –SU: 100-59 ATS: 67-78-2 O/U: 73-83-3 Week 1 – SU: 12-4 ATS: 10-5-1 O/U: 5-10-1 Week 2 – SU: 9-7 ATS: 7-9 O/U: 9-6-1 Week 3 – SU: 8-8 ATS: 12-3-1 O/U 9-7 Week 4 – SU: 6-8 ATS: 9-5 O/U 6-8 Week 5 – SU: 10-4…

  Team WinDivison MakePlayoffs MakeSuperBowl WinSuperBowl ARI 17.8 53.0 6.8 2.5 ATL 62.5 71.7 12.6 6.5 BAL 8.1 16.1 1.9 1.2 BUF 19.3 66.1 9.9 4.6 CAR 19.6 31.3 3.5 2.4 CHI 0.1 0.5 0.0 0.0 CIN 19.8 37.9 4.3 1.9 CLE 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 DAL 86.1 92.7 20.9 9.5 DEN 67.1 85.7 17.3…

I have two rankings systems “Prosp” and “Retro”.  “Prosp” is based on 5 years of data with a very steep weighting curve.  “Retro” is based entirely on the current season and strength of schedule.    Rank Team Prosp Retro PredMargin Change W L 1 DAL 57 70 0.483  8  1 2 ATL 52 64 0.184…

How close was Clinton to winning this election?  If 59,886 people in Florida switched from Trump to Clinton, Clinton would be president right now.  If that sounds like a lot of people, remember that over 9 million people in Florida voted for either Trump or Clinton.  And nationally 121,410,869 people voted for either Trump or Clinton.  So those…

2014 Record 2015 Record My record 2016: Total (weeks 1-10) –SU: 91-54 ATS: 63-68-2 O/U: 62-80-3 Week 1 – SU: 12-4 ATS: 10-5-1 O/U: 5-10-1 Week 2 – SU: 9-7 ATS: 7-9 O/U: 9-6-1 Week 3 – SU: 8-8 ATS: 12-3-1 O/U 9-7 Week 4 – SU: 6-8 ATS: 9-5 O/U 6-8 Week 5 – SU: 10-4…

It’s taken me a few days to write this because I’ve been basically unconscious for the last 3 days.  To recap, Hillary Clinton, certainly a weak candidate, but also clearly the most qualified candidate to ever run for president, got hundred of thousands (and when it’s all said and done likely millions) more votes than Donald…

1:36AM CST: WOW.  HOLY. SHIT. 9:34PM CST: We might not be able to call the winner of this election right now.  But we can say for sure that Nate Silver is the winner. 9:33PM CST:  I’m so scared right now I am physically shaking. 9PM CST: This is nauseating: 8:58PM CST: They’ve flattened out a…

In 2008, Nate Silver got 49 out of 50 states correct and in 2012 he got 50 out of 50 states correct and it basically cemented his status as the go to authority for election forecasting.  However, I thought Silver was too conservative in his probabilities in 2012.  In that post, I used FiveThirtyEight’s state by…

So yesterday I tweeted out that Nate Silver was going to look pretty bad (whether that is fair or not is a different question) if this election is a blow out because that basically means that he got two-thirds of the big predictions (Dem Primary, Rep Primary (which he botched badly), and General Election) of this…